glgi: rail industry forecast
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GLGi: Rail Industry Forecast. Toby Kolstad. Council Member Biography - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
GLGi: Rail Industry Forecast
Toby Kolstad
Council Member Biography
Toby Kolstad is President of Rail Theory Forecasts, a firm providing consulting and forecasting services in North American rail freight traffic and railcar demand. Mr. Kolstad has more than 35 years of experience in the railroad industry. He also has experience in managing railroad operations. Prior, Mr. Kolstad was Vice President at Greenbrier Leasing, Director of Car Management at The Denver and Rio Grande Railroad, and General Superintendent for the Illinois Central RR. He holds a BS in Mechanical Engineering from Tulane University, an MS in Applied Mathematics from the California Institute of Technology, and an MBA in Operations Research from the University of Chicago.
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Rail Theory Forecasts
Rail TrendsProgressive Railroading
New York CityOctober 3, 2007
New Railcar Deliveries
Factors Affecting New Railcar Demand
• Growth in rail traffic
• Railroad operating efficiencies
• Popular new railcar designs
• Rate of replacement of old cars
Railroad Traffic Growth
Railroad Operating Efficiencies
Popular Car Introductions
• Double-stack Intermodal Cars 1985
• 73’ Center-beam Flatcars 1988
• 286k Aluminum Coal Cars 1994
Railcar Replacements
• 1995----50 year service life approved by AAR for all railcars built after July, 1974
• 2006----65 year service life approved by FRA & AAR for selected car types
Coal Cars
Coal Car Deliveries
Annual Change in Coal Production (%)
Coal Train Speeds
Coal Car Fleet Age ProfileJuly 2006
Flat Cars
New Flatcar Deliveries
Intermodal Traffic Growth
Growth of TEU Imports on West Coast
Growth of U.S. Softwood Lumber Production
Flatcar Fleet Age ProfileJuly 2006
Tank Cars
New Tank Car Deliveries
Ethanol Production (million gallons)
Domestic Ethanol Supply/Demand1000 gallons
Disposition of Corn Cropmillion bu.
Covered Hopper Cars
New Covered Hopper Deliveries
Traffic Growth Rates
Covered Hopper Fleet Age ProfileJuly 2006
Railcar Builder Estimates2007
Estimated Production in 2007
American Railcar
Trinity Industries
Greenbrier Freight Car America
Union Tank
Nat’l Steel
ARII TRN GBX RAIL
Boxcars 62 62
Gondola Cars
400 800 800 2,000
Coal Cars 3,250 9,750 13,000
Flatcars 595 1,200 255 2,050
Intermodal 4,000 200 4,000
Covered Hop 4,095 14,600 1,305 20,000
Tank Cars 4,180 7,920 9,900 22,000
Total 8,275 26,765 7,167 9,750 9,900 1,255 63,112
Railcar Builder Estimates2008
Estimated Production in 2007
American Railcar
Trinity Industries
Greenbrier Freight Car America
Union Tank
Nat’l Steel
ARII TRN GBX RAIL
Boxcars 0
Gondola Cars 500 500 1,000
Coal Cars 2,250 6,750 9,000
Flatcars 525 750 1,500
Intermodal 3,800 200 4,000
Covered Hop 2,550 8,000 450 225 11,000
Tank Cars 3,990 7,560 9,450 21,000
Total 6,540 18,835 5,000 6,750 9,450 925 47,500
Rail Theory Forecasts
Rail TrendsProgressive Railroading
New York CityOctober 3, 2007