Population Geography1. Demography and Population GeographyHow population issues are investigated?2. Global Demographic TrendsWhat are the major global demographic trends?3. The Agricultural RevolutionWhat permitted the creation of the first civilizations?4. The Industrial RevolutionHow the modern society emerged?A

Demography and Population GeographyDemographySystematic analysis of population phenomena through empirical, statistical and mathematical methods.Interested about changes in the population size and composition.Population GeographyConcerned by the spatial aspects of population:1- Simple description of the location of the population.2- Explanation of its spatial pattern and distribution.3- Geographical analysis (processes such as urbanization and migration).Demography rather emphasizes on time while population geography emphasizes on space.1

Percentage of Hispanic Population, 20001

Diffusion of Homo Sapiens Around the WorldOrigins:7 million BC1

Demography and Population GeographyEvolution of the worlds populationLong historical process:Has been very slow up to recently.300 million people around year 0.Remained small until the last 250 years.A new growth trend:Has increased almost exponentially.From 1.6 billion in 1900 to 6 billion in 1999.To what it can be linked?Population explosionDefines a process of strong demographic growth.Started after the Second World War.About 80 million people added each year.Major concern for the future of humanity.2

World Population, 0-2050 (in billions)2

Population Added to the Global Population, 1950-2005 (in millions)2

World Population 1804-2054 (in billions)2

10 Largest Countries, 2001 and 2050 (in millions)220012050

The Agricultural RevolutionNatureStarted around 10,000 BC (12,000 years ago).First major demographic change in human history.Worlds population was around 5-10 million of mostly nomadic tribes.Likely occurred around the Fertile Crescent:Mesopotamia (The land between rivers).Tigris and Euphrates rivers in todays Iraq.Domestication of crops and animals:Large-scale agricultural production possible and leading to agrarian societies.Dawn of civilization.Invention of the plow, the wheel, writing, and numbers.3

Major Agricultural Hearths3Nile(5,000 B.C.)Mesopotamia(6,500 B.C.)Indus(4,700 B.C.)Ganges(4,700 B.C.)Huang He(4,500 B.C.)Irrigated agricultureCollective effortGovernments

The Agricultural RevolutionChange of lifestylesPopulation went from nomadic to sedentary lifestyle.Created private property, tools and the accumulation of wealth.Subsequently the creation of the state.By 1500, 20% of the world was composed of statehoods.Agricultural surplusesFarming allowed greater population densities and the generation of an agricultural surplus.A growing share of the population was able to engage in non-agricultural activities.Induced all sorts of innovations such as irrigation, craftsmanship, and metallurgy.3

The Agricultural RevolutionSpecializationDevelopment of trade.Creation of the first cities.StratificationAn elite gained control of surplus resources and defended their position with arms.Centralization of power and resources:Led to the development of the state.The rich and powerful developed the institutions of the state to further consolidate their gains.3

The Agricultural RevolutionThe Feudal societyA system of bonds and obligations:Royalties from the serf to the lord of a share of the agricultural production.Highly constraining system:Administrative/legal (Lord) and religious (Church) control.Fixation of the productive forces (tools and labor) in agricultural production.Economy:Low levels of productivity (subsistence level).Profits taken away by the lord/church, inhibiting any increases in agricultural productivity.80 to 90% of the population was in agriculture while the other share were artisans and landowners.Different types of feudal societies (China, Japan, Europe).3

The Agricultural RevolutionDemographic consequencesHigh birth rates:A feudal society required large families.Help agricultural activities that were very labor intensive.No contraceptives.High death rates:Wars between competing city-states.Frequent disruption of food supplies.Medicine almost non-existent.Epidemics: One famous plague, the Black Death, reduced European population by 25% between 1346 and 1348.Life expectancy around 30-35 years.The population growth rate remained low.Small cities of at most 25,000 people.3

The Industrial RevolutionNatureStarted at the end of the eighteenth century (1750-1780).Transformations first observed in England.Demographic transition of the population:Fast growth rate.This demographic theory is discussed in a subsequent chapter.Economic and social transformations.Technological innovationsUse of new materials (steel, iron, chemicals).Usage of thermal energy to produce mechanical energy.Substitution of machines to human and animal labor.Production (factory).Transportation (rail).Health (medicine).4

The Industrial RevolutionAgricultureLess agricultural population.Growth of the production of food.Mechanization and fertilizers.Scientific and commercial agriculture.Declining food prices.Social changesSignificant urbanization.Creation of a labor class.Migration from the countryside to cities:By 1870 more of the half of the population of the first industrial nations was no longer in the agricultural sector.England had reached this stage since 1820.Towards 1901, 75% of the English population lived in cities.4

Share of the Population in Agriculture, 1820-19104

European Control of the World, 1500-19504EuropeTerritory the has been controlled by an European nation at some point from 1500 to 1950

Major Phases of Demographic ChangeAgricultural RevolutionFeudal society.Wealth from agriculture and land ownership.Slow demographic growth.Industrial RevolutionWage labor society.Wealth from industry and capital ownership.Fast demographic growth.Post-Industrial RevolutionInformation society.Wealth from technological development.Slow demographic growth.4AgriculturalRevolutionIndustrialRevolutionPost-IndustrialRevolution12,000 years200 years

Major Phases of Socioeconomic Change4

Resources1. Types of ResourcesWhat are the major types of resources and what do they imply?2. The Renewable / Non-Renewable DichotomyWhat is the difference between a renewable and a non-renewable resource?3. Resources, Technology and SocietyIn which way technology influences the quantity, quality and availability of resources?Are resources a social product?4. Resource Growth and DeclineHow can resources be created and destroyed?B

Types of ResourcesContextA resource is something held in reserve that can be used for a purpose. Three major categories of resources.Natural resourcesDerived from physiographical conditions.Economic resourcesDerived from human activities.Geographical resourcesDerived by spatial characteristics.1NaturalEconomicLocationHumanCapitalEndowmentsMineralsBiological resourcesGeographical

Types of Resources1

The Renewable / Non-renewable DichotomyContextResources do not have a purpose if they are not used.Consumption of resources leads to a dichotomy:Renewable resources and non-renewable resources.Resources are unevenly used:US: 5% of the population and 40% of the worlds consumption.1/3 third of the worlds resources have already been used up.Non-renewable resourcesOil and minerals.Formed over a time framework involving geologic time.Petroleum:Extracted at a rate faster than being replenished.At some point their supply will be exhausted.Oil production will peak around 2005-2010 and drop.2

World Annual Oil Production (1990-2002) and Estimated Resources (1900-2100)2

World Mineral Reserves (years of production left), 19982

The Renewable / Non-renewable DichotomyRenewable resourcesReplenishment can occur on a human time scale:Years, decades, centuries.Include soils, forests, fish, animal herds, etc.SoilsGenerally considered to be a renewable resource.Takes a minimum of 200 years for soils to develop to the point where they can support a permanent vegetative cover.1000 years before a soil can be considered as mature, meaning it has a fully developed profile.Erosion is extremely important because growing populations do not provide adequate time for soils to regenerate fully.2

The Renewable / Non-renewable DichotomyForestsIn some areas, the rates of deforestation far surpass the natural ability of the forest to regenerate.In these situations, positive human intervention is needed to maintain the renewability of the resource.WaterHuman habitation has extended over ever more marginal lands.Irrigation has increased in many dry areas.Depletion of underground aquifers and a lowering of the water table threatens the sustainability of the system.2

Resources, Technology and SocietyTechnologyConcept of resource is tied to:Technology.Technological change.Culture controlling the technology. Definition:Processes according to which tools and machines are constructed.Insure a control of the physical environment.Comes from the Greek word teckne, which means manual expertise, and logia, which means a field of knowledgeTherefore technology means the control, or the science, of manual expertise.The more it is developed, the further the control and the transformation of matter is possible.3

Resources, Technology and SocietyNuanceTechnique rests mainly on a way to make use of experience.Technology requires the systematic usage of science and especially of the scientific method.Relationship between science, technology and production (the market).Scientific research helps discover or improve a technology.Modifies the production while creating new goods available or permitting a more efficient way to produce.ScienceTechnologyProductionResearchDevelopmentComprehension of the laws of physical systems.Level of technical expertise over matter.Practical use of a level of technical expertise.3

Resources, Technology and SocietyResources and cultureA society expresses a set of needs.An oil field would be useless to an agricultural society but of prime importance for an industrial society.Some cultures favor specific sectors of activity.In other cultures, resources are strictly controlled.ConsumerismCulture can also illustrate a level of resource consumption:American consumerism.A culture of debt.Consumption of resources part of social ideals.Mass consumption requires mass production.North America and Western Europe account for 12% of the global population but account for 60% of the consumption.3

World Materials Use, 1970-1995 (billions of short tons)3

Annual Resource Consumption per Person, 19973

Global Share of Private Consumption, 1997 (billion)3

Resources, Technology and SocietyThe Resource CurseMany resource-rich countries have the poorest population.Prone to authoritarian rule, slow growth, corruption and conflict.Resources used to finance armies, corruption and patronage.Under investment in infrastructures, utilities, health and education.Civil wars to gain control of resources.Inverse relationship between natural resources and democracy.3

Resources Growth and DeclineContextA resource is not a fixed quantity.Since the industrial revolution the quantity of resources have been considerably expanded.Economic developmentA resource is useless if there is no demand for it.Each percentage of population growth requires about 3% of economic growth for support.Economic development expands the demand for resources and their exploitation:The development of the automobile industry has expanded several types of resources, notably oil and steel.The current boom in the computer industry has expanded exponentially information-related resources.4

Gross World Product, 1950-2001 4

Technology and Resource QualityTechnological developmentRelationships between resources and technology.Technological development generally enable the exploitation of resources that were not available.Access to new types of resources:Current mining technology enables to have access to mineral resources that were unavailable before.Notably in terms of depth and concentrations.Advances in agricultural techniques have led to increased yields.Technology enables access to lower quality resources.Environmental consequences:Lower quality resources are generally more polluting.TechnologyAvailabilityQualityHigh qualityresourcesMedium qualityresourcesLow qualityresources4

Concentration of Copper Needed to be Economically Mined, 1880-2000 (in %)4

Resources Growth and DeclineAvailable and total resourcesAvailable resources:Quantity and quality of resources given the current level of economic and technological development.Total resources:Potential amount of resources that can be exploited given sufficient levels of economic and technological development.In a closed world, the amount of material resources is finite.= This is what you have, no less, no more4

Available and Total ResourcesTotal ResourcesEconomic DevelopmentTechnological Development4

Resources Growth and DeclineResource loss due to demandDrops in demand:Often lead to a related drop in the quantity of resources.Very few people are still using horses as a mean of transportation.Synthetic rubber has replaced natural rubber grown in rubber trees.Integrated circuits have replaced transistors which have replaced vacuum valves.Agricultural products:Variations in prices (and thus demand) tend to be accompanied by a related drop of the production and of cultivated surfaces. 4

Resources Growth and DeclineResource loss due to usage and non-usageSome types of resources are lost each time they are used.Oil burning and food consumption decrease available petroleum and agricultural resources.Agricultural resources:Takes much less time to be replenished.Often on a yearly basis.Oil:Can take several millions of years.Resources can also be lost if they are not used:Lumber and food.Fresh water is lost to the oceans.Resources can be wasted.4

Municipal Waste in the United States, 1997 (%)4

Resources Growth and DeclineResource loss due to destructionNatural and man causes can destroy resources.Forest fires reduce the quantity of lumber.Weather hazards destroy fields, property and production capacities.Pollution reduces natural resources such as water.Conflicts have destroyed huge quantities of resources, material and human alike, throughout history.4

The Environment1. The Environmental SystemWhat is the environment and what are the interactions between its components?2. The Worlds ClimateWhat describe and explains the variations in precipitation and temperature?C

The Environmental SystemConceptThe environment can be conceived as a system.Set of interactions between the elements of the biosphere.Includes the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the lithosphere and the ecosphere.1EcosphereAtmosphereHydrosphereLithosphereBiosphere

The Environmental System1

The Worlds ClimateNatureThe main impact of climate on population and resources is related to its influence on food production and on comfort.In extreme climatic conditions (hot or cold), large efforts must be made to support human life.Climate is mostly composed of precipitation and temperature.PrecipitationInvolves the amount of water, in all its forms (rain, snow, hail, fog, condensation), that falls on the ground.Influenced by many factors such as latitude, wind direction and altitude.2

The Worlds ClimateConvectional rainfallMostly during the summer, almost everyday around the tropics.Hot temperature causes rapid evaporation from water masses and the biomass.As the air climbs it cools and during the late afternoon, torrential rain falls.Orographic rainfallHigh mountain ranges force air masses to climb.As the air climbs it cools and rain falls.Highest levels of precipitation are on the Indian side of the Himalayas (more than 30 feet of precipitation per year).2EvaporationCondensationCondensationWind

Mean Annual Precipitation2

The Worlds ClimateTemperatureNumber of days without freezing.Important component of temperature.Rough indication of the growing season.For tropical regions, this figure is zero.Vegetation grows year long, while for middle latitudes, winter can be more or less long.Latitude, altitude and water masses and major factors influencing temperature.2

Average Insolation by Month and by Latitude 2

Source: J. Diamond (1999) Guns, Germs, and Steel, p. 37.

Source: WorldWatch Institute.Source: Worldwatch Institute.Source: United Nations, State of the World Population, 2001.Source: Raskin, P. et al (2002) Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead, Boston: Stockholm Environment Institute, p. 3. http://www.tellus.org/seib/publications/Great_Transitions.pdf

Source: Worldwatch Institute.Source: World Resources Institute.Source: World Resources Institute. www.wri.orgSource: www.wri.orgSource: www.wri.orgSource: Worldwatch Institute.Source: US Bureau of Mines.