genghis daily market note 3rd july 2013

7/28/2019 Genghis Daily Market Note 3rd July 2013

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Daily Market Note

3r

July 2013

Bloomberg: GNCP www.genghis-capital.com

Equities

Market Exhibits Signs Of Recovery

The markets reversed weeks of downward momentum with the NSE 20 Share Index gaining marginally by 1.11 points to close

at 4,562.83 points up from 4,561.74 Market capitalization expanded by 0.04% to close the day at Kes.1.616Tn down from

Kes.1.615Tn registered in yesterdays trading session. Equity turnover remained defiant to market trends by maintaining its

upward momentum, gaining 22.39% to close at 0.530Bn up from 0.433Bn. Foreign investors took to accumulating activities

with net inflows recorded at 1.92Mn.

Foreign investor activity was at 62.94% down from 66.93% recorded at the end of yesterdays close of business . Foreigners

reversed their selling stance to register net inflow at Kes. 1.92Mn up from an outflow position of Kes. 15.67Mn recorded in

he previous trading session.

To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results, is harder than itooks- Benjamin Graham

The highlights of the days trading activity are listed below:

Equity Value Traded

Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05 150,232,110.00

Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50 134,177,400.00

The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 80,288,450.00

East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00 42,217,200.00Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00 34,473,750.00

Most Actively Traded Counters

Equity Price (KES) % Change

E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50 15.35 6.60%

Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00 15.95 5.63%

CIC Insurance Group Ltd Ord.1.00 4.90 5.38%

Liberty Kenya Holdings Ltd Ord.1.00 11.25 2.74%

Trans-Century Ltd Ord 0.50 AIMS 32.50 1.56%

Gaining Stocks

Price (KES) % Change

Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00 3.85 -7.23%

Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00 2.45 -5.77%

TPS Eastern Africa Ltd Ord 1.00 46.00 -4.66%

Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00 23.00 -3.16%

Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50 14.10 -2.08%

Losing Stocks

Table 3: NSE Summary

Index Previous Today % change

NASI 115.44 115.48 0.03%

NSE 20 Share 4561.74 4562.83 0.02%

The Advance/Decline ratio stood at 14/14. 14counters increased in price while 14declined.

Foreign investor participation closed the dayat 62.94% down from 66.93% registered at

the close of yesterdays session.

Foreigners closed the day on a sellingposition with a net outflow of Kes. 15.67Mn

slightly up from a net outflow of Kes.

26.51Mn recorded at the end of yesterdays

trading session.

Safaricom Limited (NSE: SCOM) closed theday with the highest turnover at

Kes.145.62Mn which accounted for 27.47% of

foreign activity in the market. Equity Bank

Limited (NSE: EQTY) followed distantly at

Kes. 100.08Mn contributing to 18.88% of

foreign activity.

The highest inflow was experienced byKenya Commercial Bank Ltd (NSE: KCB) at

Kes.5.61Mn followed by Uchumi Ltd (NSE:

UCHM) at Kes. 5.13Mn while the highest net

outflow was observed by Equity Bank Ltd

(NSE: EQTY) at Kes. 14.93Mn.


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Daily Market Note

Previous Today % Change

Market Cap. Kes.Bn 1,615.51 1,616.20 0.04%Equity T/O: (Kes.Mn) 433.17 530.13 22.39%Local/Foreign Equity T/O: % 33.07;66.93 37.06;62.94

Advance;Decline Ratio 13;16 14;14Bond T/O: Kes.Mn 1,351.90 2,107.25 55.87%Sell/Buy Back Transactions T/O: (Mn) 0.00 0.00Sell/Buy Back Transactions % of Total Bond T/O 0.00% 0

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Estimates

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Dealers

The total index decreased by 0.16%. Three sectors advanced in value, while seven sectors declined.

The Construction & Allied Sector was the best sector for the day with 1.65% gain in value. E. A. Portland

Cement (NSE: EAPC) and E.A. Cables (NSE: CABL) spurred performance in this sector by recording gainsof 6.73% and 6.60% in value. The counters closed the trading at Kes. 55.50 and Kes. 15.35 respectively.

The worst performing sector for the day was the Investment Sector posting a decline of 1.89%. Olympia

Capital Holdings (NSE: OCH) continued to weigh down the sector with losses of 7.23%. The counter has

been experiencing distribution activities after management announced a 67.48% dip in their bottom-line

profit despite a 6% gain in revenues for the year ended Feb 2013.

Table 5: Daily Segmental Price Performance Analysis

Sector Constituents Gain/ -Loss

CONSTRUCTION & ALLIED 5 1.65%

INSURANCE 6 1.63%

BANKING 11 0.39%

MANUFACTURING & ALLIED 9 -0.16%

AGRICULTURAL 7 -0.28%

TELECOMMUNICATION & TECHNOLOGY 2 -0.39%

COMMERCIAL AND SERVICES 9 -0.48%

ENERGY & PETROLEUM 5 -0.80%

AUTOMOBILES & ACCESSORIES 4 -1.26%

INVESTMENT 3 -1.89%

Total Index 61 -0.16%

Foreign Investor Equity Turnover

Table 4: Foreign Equity Turnover2nd July 2013 3rd July 2013

Buys (Kes) Sales (Kes) Buys (Kes) Sales (Kes)

137,118,437.50 152,791,600.00 167,793,587.50 165,875,035.00

Net Inflow/(Outflow)Position

(15,673,162.50)Net Inflow/(Outflow)

Position1,918,552.50


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Daily Market Note

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Currency:

Shilling Declines

Performance: The KES registered a poor showing, gaining in two currency pairs while weakeningin five. The only gains for the day were 1.0% and 0.78% against the ZAR and INR respectively. The

gain against the INR was due to concerns that overseas investors would pull out more money

from local assets leaving the rupee vulnerable to a record current account deficit. The biggestdrop of 1.16% to the GBP was due to the pound strengthening against the USD after industry

reports showed UK service & manufacturing growth accelerated in June; coupled with

construction expansion signalling that the economic recovery is gaining momentum.

Table 8: Currency Rate

Source: Bloomberg 4.00pm E.A.T, Genghis Est.

Technical Analysis and Outlook: The graph below depicts the Bollinger band study of the USDKES pair. Theindicator shows volatility of the pair of the currencies. It is an analysis tool that provides a more in depth view of

the state of a trend.

Source: Bloomberg

Currency Pair 2nd July 2013 3rd July 2013

USD/KES 85.90 86.15

GBP/KES 130.15 131.66

EUR/KES 111.68 111.83

ZAR/KES 8.65 8.56

KES/UGX 30.05 29.97

KES/TZS 19.01 18.93

INR/KES 1.44 1.43


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Daily Market Note

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Genghis Index:

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Table 9: Genghis Index Performance

Genghis Large-Cap Index

Indicator Previous Current % Change

Price Index Performance (%) 0.15% -0.05%

Market Capitalization (Kes.Bn) 1,289.16 1,287.58 -0.12%

No. of Shares Traded (000) 35,127 35,516 1.11%

P/E Ratio 12.87 12.87

Genghis Mid-Cap Index

Indicator Previous Current % Change

Price Index Performance (%) 0.26% 0.92%

Market Capitalization (Kes.Bn) 169.57 170.706 0.67%

No. of Shares Traded (000) 878 3,629 313.49%

P/E Ratio 10.33 10.33

Genghis Small-Cap Index

Indicator Previous Today % Change

Price Index Performance -0.28% -0.80%

Market Capitalization (Kes.Bn) 13.011 12.972 -0.30%

No. of Shares Traded (000) 111 245 120.96%

P/E Ratio 11.34 11.34

ource: Genghis Capital

Large-Cap Index

The Large Cap index experienced a decline of 0.05%

down from yesterdays gain of 0.15%. Market Cap

continued to decline by shedding 0.12% to 1.287Tn.

Despite most large cap counters declining in price,

Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd (NSE: MSC) registered the best

performance in the index gaining 1.22% in value; vwap-

Kes.4.15.

The worst performing counter in the Index was Kenya

Power & Lighting Co. Ltd (NSE: KPLC) experiencing a

2.08% decline.

Mid-Cap Index

The Mid Cap index remained the days best

performer, gaining 0.92%. Market capitalization in the

section stood at Kes.170.71Bn; a gain of 0.67% from

last trading session of Kes. 169.57Bn.

E.A. Portland Cement (NSE: EAPC) was the indexs

best performer with a 6.73% gain.

The worst performing counter in this Index was TPS

Eastern Africa Ltd (NSE: TPSE) with a 4.66% decline:

vwap; 46.00. The counter experienced profit taking

activities after yesterdays boisterous climb in value

by 7.22%

Small-Cap Index

The Small Cap index shrunk by 0.80%. Market

capitalization in the section stood at Kes.12.97Bn; a

0.30% decrease from last trading session of

Kes.13.011Bn.

Unga Group Ltd (NSE: UNGA) was the indexs best

performer with a 5.63% jump in value to Kes. 15.95.

The worst performing counter in the market as well

as in Index remained as Olympia Capital Holdings

(NSE: OCH) with a 7.23% decline owing to their dismal

end-of-year results.


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Daily Market Note

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Total Mkt Cap. Dividend

Shares Outstanding VWAP Kshs Mn. Yield - %

Safaricom Ltd Ord 0 .05 40,000,000,000 6.35 254,000 23,658,600 -0.78% 0.44 0.31 15.91 4.43%

East African Brewerie s Ltd Ord 2.00 790,774,356 324.00 256,211 130,300 -0.31% 13.46 8.75 28.83 2.26%

Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50 3,702,777,020 31.50 116,637 4,259,600 0.80% 3.26 1.25 10.74 3.57%

Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00 2,950,259,818 37.50 110,635 919,300 0.00% 4.11 1.90 10.16 4.55%

Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 0. 50 5,431,536,000 15.80 85,818 658,000 0.64% 1.61 1.00 11.30 5.49%

Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 287,077,133 283.00 81,243 4,600 1.07% 26.60 12.50 11.32 4.15%

Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00 362,959,275 210.00 76,221 0 0.00% 12.17 10.50 17.09 5.05%

The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 3,492,369,900 15.50 54,132 5,179,900 0.32% 1.84 0.50 9.21 2.95%

Nation Media Group Ltd Ord. 2.50 157,118,572 300.00 47,136 13,700 0.00% 15.90 10.00 19.62 3.21%

British Americ an Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00 100,000,000 565.00 56,500 700 -2.08% 32.71 32.50 16.81 5.91%

ARM Cement Ltd Ord 1.00 495,275,000 64.00 31,698 15,400 0.00% 2.51 0.50 27.49 0.72%

KenGen Co. Ltd Ord. 2.50 2,198,361,456 15.00 32,975 153,600 0.00% 1.28 0.60 11.84 3.96%

Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00 163,037,108 169.00 27,553 31,900 -0.59% 14.75 1.90 11.73 1.10%

NIC Bank Ltd Ord 5.00 358,997,784 53.00 19,027 53,500 0.95% 5.87 1.00 9.37 1.82%

CFC Stanbic of Kenya Holdings Ltd ord.5.00 273,684,211 65.50 17,926 57,700 0.00% 9.90 0.00 6.36 0.00%

Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50 633,024,000 14.10 8,926 86,200 -2.08% 2.36 0.50 7.33 2.89%

Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00 1,530,000,000 4.15 6,350 229,900 1.22% 1.32 0.50 3.33 11.36%Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00 461,615,483 9.95 4,593 62,700 0.00% 3.58 0.25 3.14 2.22%

1,287,581 35,515,600 -0.05% 8.54 4.69 12.87 3.65%

GENGHIS MID CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00 284,789,128 60.50 17,230 1,800 0.83% 2.21 0.60 30.09 0.90%

British-American Investments Co.(Kenya) Ltd Ord 0.10 2,150,000,000 8.00 17,200 205,100 -1.23% 1.40 0.10 5.96 1.20%

KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05 1,471,761,200 8.80 12,951 1,169,700 -1.12% -4.26 0.00 -2.43 0.00%

Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00 54,450,000 234.00 12,741 0 0.00% 35.32 7.00 7.47 2.65%

CIC Insurance Group Ltd ord.1.00 2,179,615,440 4.90 10,680 1,112,000 5.38% 0.64 0.10 8.20 1.90%

Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50 604,947,068 21.00 12,704 24,200 0.00% 1.79 0.00 12.15 0.00%

Kenya Re Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50 600,000,000 16.15 9,690 325,700 1.25% 4.00 0.40 4.28 2.34%

Trans-Century Ltd Ord 0.50 AIMS 273,950,284 32.50 8,903 2,300 1.56% 1.66 0.40 19.58 1.23%

TPS Eastern Africa Ltd Ord 1.00 148,210,640 46.00 6,818 100 -4.66% 3.60 1.30 14.44 2.50%CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50 582,709,440 13.50 7,867 0 0.00% 0.18 0.00 75.00 0.00%

National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 280,000,000 22.00 6,160 26,900 0.00% 1.49 0.20 14.09 0.95%

Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00 265,426,614 19.70 5,229 527,600 2.87% 1.03 0.30 19.32 1.51%

Housing Finance Co.Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 235,750,000 25.50 6,012 78,100 0.99% 3.22 1.40 7.84 5.54%

Liberty Kenya Holdings Ltd Ord.1.00 515,270,364 11.25 5,797 2,100 2.74% 1.72 0.40 7.24 3.21%

Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00 96,000,000 53.00 5,088 2,100 0.00% 7.27 3.00 8.12 5.08%

E.A.Portland Cement Co. Ltd Ord 5.00 90,000,000 55.50 4,995 100 6.73% -9.09 0.00 -6.16 0.00%

Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00 33,980,265 140.00 4,757 0 0.00% 11.46 5.00 12.22 3.57%

E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50 253,125,000 15.35 3,885 147,600 6.60% 1.74 1.00 8.65 6.64%

Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00 228,055,500 12.70 2,896 2,500 -0.78% 1.72 1.00 8.14 7.14%

Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00 74,059,026 27.00 2,000 0 0.00% 2.56 0.00 11.82 0.00%

Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 175,028,706 16.40 2,870 900 0.00% -0.32 0.00 -53.28 0.00%

B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 19,525,446 115.00 2,245 0 0.00% 10.11 5.05 10.98 4.55%

AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00 208,084,296 9.55 1,987 0 0.00% 0.69 0.30 13.84 3.14%

170,706 3,628,800 0.92% 3.48 1.20 10.33 2.35%

GENGHIS SMALL CA P MARKET SEGMENT

I&M Holdings Ltd Ord 1.00 5,728,314 95.00 544 130,600 0.00% 8.45 0.00 53.02 0.00

Willi amson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS 8,756,320 227.00 1,988 0 0.00% 93.74 57.50 2.56 23.96%

Kakuzi Ltd Ord.5.00 19,599,999 80.00 1,568 700 0.00% 19.35 3.75 4.44 4.36%

Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00 278,342,393 5.25 1,461 3,000 -1.87% 0.68 0.25 7.79 4.72%

Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00 60,000,000 21.50 1,290 9,200 -1.15% 6.34 1.10 3.39 5.12%

Crown Paints Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 23,727,000 54.50 1,293 700 0.00% 5.63 1.25 9.95 2.23%

Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00 75,708,873 15.95 1,208 88,500 5.63% 2.81 0.75 5.57 4.79%

Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00 22,279,616 23.00 512 6,900 -3.16% 7.48 0.55 3.48 2.12%

The Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 AIMS 1,200,000 490.00 588 0 0.00% 84.86 7.50 5.54 1.60%

Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00 210,000,000 2.45 515 4,800 -5.77% -0.59 0.00 -4.58 0.00%

Longhorn Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 AIMS 58,500,000 9.00 527 0 0.00% -0.38 0.00 -23.68 0.00%

Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 AIM S 3,912,000 135.00 528 0 0.00% 19.93 7.50 6.37 5.91%

Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 AIM S 16,078,500 27.25 438 0 0.00% 1.36 1.25 20.59 4.46%

Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00 14,393,106 13.00 187 0 0.00% -11.80 0.00 -1.04 0.00%

Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00 40,000,000 3.85 154 200 -7.23% 0.38 0.10 13.68 1.92%

Express Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 A IMS 35,403,790 3.75 133 0 0.00% 0.37 0.00 10.68 0.00%

Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 AIM S 12,868,124 3.00 39 0 0.00% 0.04 0.00 75.00 0.00%

P/EGENGHIS LARGE CAP MARKET SEGMENT Total Shares Traded Price Change EPS DPS


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Daily Market Note

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Muammar Ismaily, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774750 | Email: [email protected]

Evelyne Wanjiku, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774750 | Email: [email protected]

Report By: Florence Kimaiyo, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774750 | Email:[email protected]

Carol Matu, Head Dealer | Tel: +254 20 2774789 | Email: [email protected]

Nyawira Waithaka, Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774777 | Mob: +254 723 693481 | Email: [email protected]

Disclaimer: The content provided on this document is provided as general information and does not constitute advice or recommendation by Genghis

Capital Ltd and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution

recommending the purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in

the document are solely the opinions of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made

every effort to provide accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied

warranty of any kind as to its correctness. You should consult your own independent financial adviser to obtain professional advice before exercising any

decisions based on the information present in this document. Any action that you take as a result of this information, analysis, or advertisement is

ultimately your responsibility.

Genghis Capital Ltd, Prudential Assurance Building, Wabera Street, Nairobi.

Tel: +254 20 2774760 Fax: +254 20 246334
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]

genghis daily market note 3rd july 2013

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