daily metals and energy report 3rd jan

7/30/2019 Daily Metals and Energy Report 3rd Jan

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Com m odit ies Da i ly Rep ort

In ternat ional Commodi t ies

Thursday| January 3 , 201 3

www.angelcommodit ies .com

Content Overview

Prec ious M eta ls

Energy

Base M etals

Impo r tant Events for to day

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Research TeamNalini Rao - Sr. Research Analystnal ini [email protected](022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135

Anish Vyas - Research Analyst D Vijiya Rao - Research [email protected] vi j [email protected]

(022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104v ie w : (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6134view







verv iew

US ISM M anufactur ing PM I rose to 50.7 levels in December

Germ an Prel im CPI gained t o 0.9 percent in th e Decem ber.

UK M anufactur ing PM I rose to 51.4 levels in Decem ber.

Spanish M anufactur ing PM I fel l to 44.6 levels in last m ont h.

I tal ian M anufactur ing PM I rose to 46.7 levels in last m ont h

sian m arkets are t r ad ing on a f i rm note o n opt imism that t he US, largest

onomy of the wor ld is on the path o f recovery as the manufactur ing

ta f rom the nat ion came on a favorab le note . On the o ther hand the

vestor s are also looking ahead for t he negotiat ion s on t he US debt l im it

d spending cuts w hich need to be resolved.

S Final M anufactur ing Purchasing M anagers' Index (PMI) fel l b y 0.2

ints to 54-mark in December as against a r ise of 54.2-level in

ovem ber. The Inst i tu t e for Supply M anagem ent ( ISM ) M anufactur ing

M I increased by 1.2 poin ts to 50.7-level in Decemb er as against 49.5-

ark in last m onth.

e HSBC M arki t India M anufactur ing PM I increased to 54.7 in Decem ber

om 53.7 in November.

S Dol lar Index (DX) remained volat i le throughout the day. The index

ded 0.1 percent higher in yesterday’s session. The index remained

eak in most par t o f the day as US law m akers were ab le to agree on the

cal cl i f f issue. This caused posit ive m arket sentim ent s and red uced t he

m and for the low yie ld ing currency that is US Dol lar Index. However ,

w ards the end o f t he session w eakness in the index w ere erased as the

beat sent iments faded. Th is was on account that even though thegislat ion is passed to avert the f iscal cl i f f , the di f ferences over the

dget am ongst the law m akers st i l l persist w h ich cou ld erupt again in

e m onth o f February.

S equit ies sett led higher in yesterday’s session. Equit ies witnessed

rength due to f i rm sent iments created a f ter the US law makes were

le to pass a legislat ion to avert the f iscal cl i f f issue. Addit ional ly,

vorab le econom ic data f rom the nat ion a lso suppor ted an upside in the

ocks. The index tou ched an int ra-day high of 80.03 and closed at 79.91

W ednesday.

e Indian Rupee appreciated 0.8 percent on Wednesday taking cues

om the p osit ive g lobal market sent im ents af ter t he US law m akers w ere

le to avert the f iscal cl i f f issue. Sustained capital inf lows from the

reign inst i tut ions also supported appreciat ion in the currency. The

pee closed at 54.23 after touching an intra-day high of 54.23 on

ednesday.

r the current month 2013 FII inf lows totaled at Rs 1,689.40 crores t i l ld

January 2013. Whi le year to date basis, net capital inf lows for the

ar 2013 stood at Rs. 1689.30 crores.

M arket H igh lights (% change) as on 2 Janua ry, 2013

Last Prev day w -o-w m-o-m

I N R / $(Spot)

54.23 0.8 1.1 1.0

$ / Eu ro(Spot)

1.3184 -0.2 -0.3 1.0

Dollar

Index

79.91 0.1 0.3 0.0

NIFTY 5993.3 0.7 1.5 4.6

SENSEX 19714.2 0.7 1.5 4.6

DJIA 13412.55 2.4 2.3 3.4

S& P 1462.4 2.5 3.8 3.76

Source: Reuters

Euro fel l 0.2 percent in yesterday’s session. The currency

ga ined in most par t o f the t rade due to posi t ive ma

sentiments created after US f iscal cl i f f issue was averted a

w as passed in the legislat ion. Addit ional ly, favorable econo

data fr om the region also added to t he gains in the curr ency

to w ards the end of th e session gains w ere erased as th e pos

sentiments over the resolut ion of the f iscal cl i f f issue fad

Even though the issue has been resolved, di f ferences over

spending cuts amongst the law makers persisted and c

emerge again in February. The currency touched an intralow of 1.3155 and closed at 1.3184 on Wed nesday.







M arket Highl ights - Gold (% change) as on 2 Janua ry, 201

Gold Un it LastPrev

d ay

W o W M o M

Gold (Spot) $ / oz1686.4 0.7 1.6 -1.7

Gold (Spot

- M u m b a i)

Rs /10

gm s

30526.0 0.1 0.5 -2.8

Gold(LBM A-PM

Fix) $ / o z

1693.8 2.6 #N/A -1.5

Comex

Gold(Feb’13)

$ / o z

1686.8 0.7 1.6 -1.9

M CX G o l d(Feb’13)

Rs / 10gm s

31042.0 0.5 1.1 -0.7

Source: Reuters

M arket Highl ight s - Si lver (% change) as on 2 Janua ry, 201

Si lv e r U n i t La st Pre v d a y W o W Mo M

Silver(Spot)

$ / o z31.0 2.3 3.3 -7.9

Silver(Spot -

M u m b a i) Rs/ 1 kg

58800.0 #N/A 2.1 -6.7

Silver(LBM A) $ / o z 30.9 #N/A #N/A -7.6

ComexSilver( M a r ’ 1 3 )

$ / o z

31.0 2.8 3.4 -8.0

M CX Si lver( M a r ’ 1 3 )

Rs / kg58938.0 1.8 2.6 -4.7

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Spo t Gold

Source: Telequot e

Bullion

GoldSpot gold prices gained 0.7 percent due to posit ive global market

entiments after the f iscal cl i f f issue of the US got resolved and was

assed in th e legislat ion. W eakness in t he DX also acted as a supp ort iveactor for the gold prices. However, sharp gains were capped as the

nvestors are also looking ahead for the negotiat ions on the US debt

m it and spending cut s wh ich need to be resolved due in Februar y.

Spot gold prices touched a high of $1,694.7 per oz and closed at

1686.4 per oz in yesterday’s session. In th e dom estic market s, M CX

Gold pr ices t raded on a posi t ive note taking cues f rom the st rength in

he spot go ld pr ices. Add i t iona l ly, expecta t ion o f r ise in th e im port duty

f gold in India also supported an upside in the gold prices in

esterday’s session. How ever, appreciat ion in the Indian rupee capped

harp gains in t he gold pr ices on M CX. M CX Gold prices touch ed an

ntr a-day high of Rs. 31,191 per 10 gm s and closed at Rs. 31,042 per 10

ms on W ednesday.

SilverSpot si lver prices ended 2.3 percent higher taking cues from strength in

he spot gold prices along with f i rmness in the base metals prices.

W eakness in th e DX in m ost part of t he trad e yesterday also acted as a

upport ive factor for t he si lver prices.

The whit e m etal prices tou ched a high of $ per oz and closed at $31 per

z. In the d om estic m arkets, si lver prices on M CX traded w ith a posit ive

ias tracking strength in the spot si lver prices along with favorable

m anufactur ing data o f the nat ion. How ever , appreciat ion in t he Ind ian

up ee capped gains on M CX. M CX si lver prices touched a high of Rs.

9,580 pe r kg and closed at Rs.58,938 pe r kg in yesterd ay’s session .

O u t lo o k

n the in t ra-day, we expect precious meta ls to t rade h igher due to

osit ive global market sentiments. However sharp r ise in the prices is

kely to be capped due to strength in the DX. Cautious approach might

lso be adopted by investors as negotiat ions on the US debt l imit and

pending cuts has to be discussed. Si lver prices might derive tr end fr omhe movement in the base metals pack also. Si lver prices are expected

o remain f i rm today. In the domest ic markets apprecia t ion in the

Rupee wi l l cap gains in the preciou s m etals on M CX.

Technical Outloo k val id for January 3, 2013

Un it Support Resistance

Spot Gold $ / oz 1 6 8 2 /1 6 7 7 1 6 9 3 /1 6 9 8

M CX Gold Feb’13 Rs/ 10 gms 30950/30850 31150/31250

Spot Silver $ / oz 30.85/30 .70 31 .20 /31 .45

M CX Silver M ar’13 Rs/ kg 58500/58200 59200/59600







M arket Highl ights - Crud e Oi l (% change) as on 2 Janua ry, 20

Crude Oil Un it LastPrev .

d ayW o W M o M

W T I ( Sp o t ) $ / b b l93.1 1.4 2.7 5.0

Brent

(Spot) $ / b b l114.0 2.1 3.4 1.6

N y m e x

Crude(Feb’13)

$ / b b l

92.8 -0.4 2.0 4.2

ICE Bren tCrude

(Feb’13)

$ / b b l

112.5 1.3 1.3 1.4

M CX Crude(Jan’13)

Rs/ bbl5049.0 0.4 1.3 3.5

Source: Reuters

M arket Highl ights - Natural Gas (% change) as on 2 Janua ry, 201

N a t u ra lGas (NG)

U n i t La st Pre v . d a y W o W M o M

N y m e x

N G

$ / m m b t u 3.235 -3.46 -4.63 -9.91

M CX N G(Jan ’1 3)

Rs/m m b t u

174.5 -5.73 -6.18 -11.60

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart – Nym ex Crude Oi l

Source:

Technical Chart – Nym ex Natur al Gas

nergy

rude O il

ymex crude oi l pr ices increased around 1.4 percent taking cues from

S lawm akers able to pass a bi l l to avoid r ise in taxes and cut spendin g

h ich cou ld have a f fected dem and for the fu e l .

ddi t ional ly, weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the crude

prices. Crude prices touched an intra-day high of $93.87/bbl and

osed at $92.99/ bbl in yesterd ay’s tr ading session.

n the domestic bourses, prices gained around 0.4 percent and closed

Rs.5,049/bbl after touching an intra-day high of Rs.5,096/bbl on

ednesday. However, appreciat ion in the Indian Rupee capped sharp

ins in t he pr ices.

PI Inven tories Forecast

e American Petroleum Inst i tute (API) is scheduled to release i ts

eekly inventories today and US crude oi l inventories are expected to

cl ine by 0 .6 mi l l ion barre ls for the week end ing on 28th December

12. Gasol ine stocks are expected to r ise by 2.0 mi l l ion barrels and

sti l late inventories are expected to gain by 1.5 mi l l ion barrels for the

me w eek.

ut look

the in t ra-day we expect crude o i l p r ices to t rade wi th f i rm note as

vorable data from the US and China is indicat ing that economies are

t he path o f recovery. Th is is expected t o increase th e demand for t heude oi l . How ever, stren gth in th e DX is expected t o restr ict gains in the

ude o i l p r ices. In the domest ic market apprecia t ion in the rupee is

ely to act as a bearish factor fo r th e crude oi l pr ices on M CX.

chnical Outloo k val id for January 3, 2013

Unit Support Resistance

YM EX Cru d e O i l $ / b b l 91.90/91 93 .40 /94 .30

M CX Crude Jan ’13 Rs/ bbl 5 0 1 0 /4 9 6 0 5 0 9 0 /5 1 4 0







Base M eta lsThe base metals pack traded on a f i rm note in yesterday’s session

on the back of resolut ion of the US f iscal cl i f f issue as the cl i f f was

averted by str iking a deal among the lawmakers. The prices were

a lso suppor ted by the st rong manufactur ing data f rom China, the

argest consum er of met als.M CX base m etals prices, tr acing the int ernation al price m ovem ent s

also increased. Strong manufacturing act ivi ty measured by HSBC

M anufactur ing PM I rose to 54.7 in December as com pared to 53.7

n Novem ber, a lso lent suppor t t o t he m eta l pr ices. Apprecia t ion in

he Indian rup ee, however , restr icted t he gains in m etal prices.

Copper

Copper prices increased 4.9 per cent yesterday. The increase in t he

pr ices w as due to the po si t ive m anufactur ing data f rom the China

and t he resolut io n of th e f iscal cl i f f issue. Weakness in t he DX also

support ed an upside in th e copper pr ices. How ever, r ise in the LM Envent ories excreted dow nside pressure on t he prices.

Copper invent ories on LM E increased by 0.1 percent in yester day’s

session and sto od at 320,500 ton nes on Tuesday as against 320,050

on nes as on 31st Decemb er 2012.

Prices of Copper on LM E to uched a high of $ 8,255 per ton ne and

closed a t $ 8 ,200/ t onne on W ednesday. In the dom est ic m arkets,

M CX copper gained 1.41 percent t aking posit ive cues from t he

nternat iona l m arkets. In the dom est ic m arkets, pr ices o f Copper on

M CX touched a high of Rs. 452.4 per kg and closed at Rs. 450.15 per

kg on W ednesday.

O ut look

From the intraday perspective, the base metals are expected to

gain on t he back of the US f iscal cl if f issue being resolved. Further ,

avorable m anufactu ring data from th e China, UK and t he US is also

expected to suppor t an upside in the base meta ls. However ,

strength in t he DX m ight restr ict gains. In the dom estic m arkets, th e

meta ls might wi tness an upside on the account o f st rong

manufactur ing act iv i ty data . However , apprecia t ion in the Ind ian

up ee is expected t o cap gains in th e m etal prices on M CX.

Technical Outloo k val id for Januar y 3, 2013

Un it Support Resistance

M CX Copper Feb’13 Rs / kg 4 4 8 /4 4 4 4 5 3 /4 5 6

M CX Zinc Jan’13 Rs / kg 114.3 /113.7 116/116.7

M CX Lead Jan ’13 Rs / kg 130.5 /129.6 131.7 /132.5

M CX Aluminum Jan’13 Rs / kg 115.7 /115 117/117.6

M CX Nicke l Jan ’13 Rs / kg 9 5 7 /9 5 0 9 7 0 /9 8 0

M arket Highl ights - Base M etals (% change) as on 2 Janua ry, 2013

U n i t La st Pre v . d a y W o W M o M

LM E Copper (3

m o n t h )

$ / t o n n e 8200 3.22 4.89 2.63

M CX C o p p e r

(Feb’13)

Rs/ kg 450.15 1.41 3.17 4.64

LM E Aluminum

( 3 m o n t h )

$ / t o n n e 2161 4.50 3.96 3.50

M CX A l u m i n u m

(Jan’13)

Rs / kg 113.2 0.18 0.89 0.09

LM E Nicke l

( 3 m o n t h )

$ / t o n n e 17686 3.37 2.14 0.92

M CX Nicke l

(Jan’13)

Rs / kg 963 1.52 1.35 0.87

LM E Lead

( 3 m o n t h )

$ / t o n n e 2426.5 4.19 4.93 7.84

M CX Lead

(Jan’13)

Rs / kg 131.05 2.74 3.64 7.51

LM E Zinc

( 3 m o n t h )

$ / t o n n e 2142 3 .40 4 .28 4 .28

M CX Zinc

(Jan’13)

Rs / kg 115.1 1.54 2.40 3.60

Source: Reuter s

LM E Invent ories

U n i t 2nd

January3 1

st

D e c e m b e r

ActualChange

Copper tonnes 320500 320050 450

A l u m i n u m t o n n e s 5210350 5210050 300

Nicke l tonnes 141690 139908 1,782

Zinc tonnes 1220725 1220750 -25

Lead tonnes 317700 320325 -2,625

Source

Technical Chart – LM E Cop per

Source:






Im portan t Event s for Today

Indicator Countr y Time (IST) Actua l Forecast Previous Impa ct

Bank Hol iday Japan All day - - - -

Bank Hol iday Chin a All day - - - -

Nat ionwide HPI m/ m UK 12:30pm - 0.1% 0.0% M edium

Spanish U nem ployment Change Euro 1:30pm - 50.3K 74.3K M edium

Hal ifax HPI m/ m UK 3rd

– 7t

- 0 .2% 1.0% M edium

German U nemployment Change Euro 2:25pm - 11K 5K M edium

M 3 M o n ey Su p p ly y / y Euro 2:30pm - 3.8% 3.9% M edium

M 3 M o n ey Su p p ly y / y UK 3:00pm - 49.6 49.3 High

BOE Cred it Conditions Survey UK 3:00pm - - - M edium

ADP Non-Farm Employme nt Change US 6:45pm - 134K 118K High

Unem ployment Cla ims US 7:00pm - 356K 350K High

daily metals and energy report 3rd jan

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