future trends. infrastructure the urban age 1900 1.7 people (billion) % living in cities 10% cities...
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Future Trends
InfrastructureThe Urban Age
1900
1.7People(Billion)
% Living in Cities 10%
CitiesGreater than1 Million 16
2007
6.5
50%
450
2050
9.0
75%
600
Water Insecurity
Decline in Food Production
Heat Waves
InfrastructureTransition Phase - Uncertainty
Emissions Trading Scheme
ClimateAdaptation
Multiple Renewable Energy Options
Rise in global middle class – materialists
How can we:
• Lead & influence other cities?
• Make sustainability an aspiration?
Challenges
Local Trends
CoM Population GrowthForecast
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Pop
ulat
ion
Forecast
Aging Population
Strong MigrationMulticulturalism
Strong Demand for Housing
InfrastructureCity User Projections
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2006 2011 2016 2020
Year
Nu
mb
er o
f C
ity
Use
rs
Forecast
Transport
Car drivers and passengers
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
1996 2001 2006
Nu
mb
er
Public Transport
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
1996 2001 2006
Nu
mb
er
Bicycle
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
1996 2001 2006
Walked
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
1996 2001 2006
20%
8%111%
136%
Car(01-06)
Public Transport(01-06)
Bicycle(01-06)
Walked(01-06)
-5549
+13,193
+3,056
+6,757
Increased Imports
Melbourne Geelong Hastings Portland
0
10,000
20,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
2002-3
2030 (Base case forecast)
Ton
nes
(‘000
)
Source: COAG 2007
24 Hour City
Average Hourly Pedestrian Activity by Day
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Hour of the Day
Count
Monday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Local Climate Change Impacts
High rainfall (>20mm) results in a decrease in pedestrian activity of 10%
High temperature (>35 degrees) results in a decrease of 10.9%
Housing Affordability
The Age February 2008
Infrastructure
Aging Infrastructure
1905 Flinders Street Station
Commenced
1837 The Hoddle Grid
1985
Melbourne's City Loop was completed
1884 First underground drain constructed
in Carlton
2000City Square Opens
Domain Tunnel is opened
Westgate Bridge
Completed in 1978
1996Development of the Docklands
1889 Victoria Dock opened
Opportunities
Renewable Energy
Biomimcry
RenewableEnergyNano-Technology
Vertical Farming
Robotics
Communication Technology
Education
In this uncertain Transition phase, how can we:• Keep the cost of living relatively low• Deal with more variable weather • Maintain recreation facilities & city vitality • Deal with increasing congestion • Maintain social cohesion, public safely & security• Adjust to an aging population• Improve education standards & reduce skills shortages• Improve financial flows• Guard against spread of disease pandemics/epidemics
Maintaining Liveability