Future trends for LNG imports in Europeand consequences for LNG terminals

Pierre Cotin, Elengy

Sous-titre de la présentationDate à définir

2

Elengy in a nutshell

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Montoir-de-

Bretagne

Fos Tonkin Cargo Reloading

Truck Loading

Fos Cavaou

Cargo Reloading

Cargo Transshipment

Cargo Reloading

Cargo Transshipment

Truck Loading

9000+ cargoes

handled by

ELENGY out of 75000

since 50 years in the world

150+ different LNG

tankers 1/3 of world fleet

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RECENT TRENDS

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LNG imports in Europe since 2010

2015 : + 18% vs.

2014 but still 47%

below 2011 for

net imports

2016 : likely

second year of

recovery

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

LNG Imports in European Terminals

Reloads

Imp. Net

Mt (per month)

source: Poten&Partners

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LNG terminals load factor

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Utilisation Rate of EU28 LNG terminals(based on net import volumes)

Italy

France

Belgium

UK

EU28

Portugal

Spain

Greece

Lithuania

NL

sources: Elengy, GIIGNL, GLE

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2016 to date : gross imports

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(1,000,000)

(500,000)

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

Tons

Variation in gross imports 2016-2015 2016 vs. 2015 (8 months):

• + 0.7 Mt (+ 3 %)

Sources :• Algeria: + 1 Mt

• Nigeria: + 0.9 Mt

• Qatar: - 1.2 Mt

Source : Waterborne, Elengy analysis

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2016 to date : re-exports

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2016 vs. 2015 (8 months):• - 0.3 Mt (- 12.5 %)

Sources :• France: + 0.8 Mt

• Spain: - 0.9 Mt

• Portugal: - 0.2 Mt

(1,000,000)

(500,000)

-

500,000

1,000,000

Tons

Variation in re-exports 2016-2015

Source : Waterborne, Elengy analysis

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FUTURE TRENDS

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European LNG demand

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0

20

40

60

80

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Bcm

/y

Source : IHS CERA (Rivalry), Elengy analysis

LNG imports EU28

July 2016

February 2016

November 2015

Recovery

towards

2010/11 levels

expected

Total EU import

capacity:

210 Bcm/y

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Same old imports levels, new landscape

Less captive LNG

More opportunistic market: new players, US flexible

LNG, liquid downstream hubs

Increased competition between terminals

New services: re-loading, transshipment, small-

scale hubs

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CONSEQUENCES

FOR LNG TERMINALS

12

Increased competition : key success factors

Flexibility:

Scheduling and re-scheduling

Maximum throughput to stop-and-go

Tariffs

Downstream market attractivity

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13

Longer term : post-2020 ?

Potential new downturn• Liquefaction FIDs ? Only 1 train in 2016

• Scenarii for gas consumption in Europe ?

Support new markets development for LNG : • Develop services for road and maritime transportation

• Contribution to national plan for deployment of LNG

infrastructures for ships bunkering with French Gas Association

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14 / LNG global congress / 21 September 2016 / www.elengy.com