nbn: benefits & african strategies - cloud object...
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NBN: Benefits & African Strategies
Nigel BruinPrincipal Consultant, Huawei
linkedin.com/in/nigelbruin
1st
3rd
2nd
Mechanization
Electrification
Automation
Internet of Things
Industry applications based on Big Data
4th Intelligentization
+Data Algorithm
Broadband = socio-economic development
Digital economy needs infrastructure
• Overwhelming evidence to support benefit of broadband investment in the creation of jobs and GDP growth
• Benefit : cost ratio of between 2.7 and 2.9 (Europe)1
• Household monthly income increases US$322 (OECD) and US$46 (BRICS), while bandwidth upgraded from 0.5Mbps to 4Mbps
Source: Analysys Mason research
Medicine
Energy
Smart Home
Work
Education
Traffic Economy
Security
Commerce
Productivity
People-Centric
25+Mbps
Ultrafast
<5%Spending
Affordable
90%+Pop.
Ubiquitous
More than 300M households will be connected by 2020
Connect 2020: Drive households BB fast-growing Households: 779M connected, 992M unconnected
10.7%36.3%40.3%
60.1%60.0%
82.1%6.7%
34.1%46.4%
81.3%
AfricaAPAC
Arab StatesCIS
The AmericasEurope
LDCsDeveloping
WorldDeveloped
Percentage of households wi th In ternet access
60% households
90%
rural population
30%
ITU:Connect 2020
Decrease CO2
148 Countries with National Broadband Plans
About 1B Households are Unconnected
Redefine
Broadband100 Mbps for 100M HH
Digital Agenda
2020
30 Mbps for 100% HH
100 Mbps for 50% HH
Broadband
China 2020
50 Mbps @urban
12 Mbps @rural
Broadband 2020 Ultra-BB: Basic of Service Bundling
Bandwidth
2M 10M 20M 100M4M
BW driven
Experience driven
Ultra-BB
Mobile
Content App.
Basic Broadband Ultra-BB Giga Access 1000M
Ultra-fast Broadband Become Basic Need
USA: broadband is >25MbpsKorea: 1Gbps broadband by 2020
UK: 500Mbps super fast broadband
NGA1.0: FTTC @ 40/80MNGA2.0: G.fast @ 500M
BDUK: Government invest 1/2 in rural
China Fiber City: 4M à 50M à100M à 1G
40Mn FTTH in 2014 (Huawei: 20M) 80Mn in 2015
Premier Li Keqiang put much pressure on operators
Giga Korea (2020)
10Gbps (SKT)
1Gbps (100%)
Gigabit City (2015)
25Mbps1Gbps
(baseline)
(in all 51 states)
1Gbps50Mbps (developing city)
(developed city)
China NBN (2020)
“I believe America should lead the world in broadband penetration”
“Universal Broadband Access is crucial for Britain’s economy”
Digital Britain
ITU Broadband Target 2020
EU promotes 50Mbps by 2020
Fast BB @30M (100%)
Ultra BB @50M (50%)
EU Funding +50% in Gray Area; +85% in White Area
Digital Agenda
55% HH Internet Access
60% Internet Individuals
90% BB Coverage in Rural
Tariff <5% of average monthly income
2020
Broadband is international & strategic
Cities drive the world economy
“It is not population or territorial size that drives world-city status, but economic weight, proximity to zones of growth,
political stability, and attractiveness for foreign capital.Connectivity matters more than size”
Over the past 10 years, China overseas aid reached $100b, of which +$40bn in Africa
EgyptDec 2011
$0.25bn on optical fiber infrastructure network in 2011$0.4bn on IGW, FTTx, WTTx in 2013
CameroonMar 2011
KenyaAug 2013$60mn on 4,300km
backbone (NOFBI I)$72.5mn on 1,200km backbone connect 47 counties (NOFBI II) Botswana
Dec 2014South Africa
2014-2015BOT + revenue sharing model, Western Cape and Johannesburg Broadband Network Project (JBNP)
$0.117bn on 1,482km backbone, 376 km metro, data centers and 216 FTTx (NICTIB)
EthiopiaMar 2012
$0.12bn on metro network and 0.7M FTTx lines
$0.45bn on IP backbone and optical fiber network
TanzaniaSep 2008
$16.23mn on fiber optical backbone and FTTx connecting 4 major cities (BoFiNet)
Nigeria2014
$2.4bn on 4M FTTx lines; 0.1 bn on Egypt-Saudi submarine cable
Namibia
2016
Angola
Uganda MozambiqueRwanda
Mr. Xi, the General Secretary of CPC
committed to invest $60bn to improve African broadband infrastructure in the
next 3 years
Africa has stepped into a new broadband era
LTE+DSL
ADSL
PON
Any media GigaBand
10G PON
DOCSIS 2.0
LTE+SuperVector
Hybrid
20%
15%
55%
10%
FTTH Deployment Cost Breakdown
OLT+ONT
ODN boxes
ODN + Engineering = 70% total cost
14
Gigabit on any media
AggregationBackbone
Power transmission network, oil pipeline, super highway and railway slopes
Access
New building/house must deploy optical cable and share to Telco/Tower sharing
Nordic governments made policy to facilitate cooperation between Telco and utility companies
Phase 3 Telecom cooperate with power company anddeploy fiber optic cable along high voltage power lines
Many governments ask utility company open slopes or deploy ducts or optical cables for Telcos
200+ municipal governments in Nordic region have deployed fiber optical cables for leasing or self operation
UAE government asked municipality water supply company to share its underground water conduit to ET
Haya Water deploy fiber optic network along its sewage duct and wholesale to operators
China Government set up a TowerCoto manage all tower sources
Government amended Construction Law in which new housing should deploy optical fiber & share to all Telco
Tower merge and acquisition are accelerating in Africa. TowerCo, e.g., IHS, HTA, Eaton have own 47% (85,000) towers by 2015
Power line, gas pipe, water ducting, sidewalk and municipal construction
Leverage Infrastructure Synergy
3~4km 2~3km
Widely Distributed
Last Mile Rental
Land Privately Owned
Engineering Installation
Semi-rural & Rural FTTx: More Costly & Longer TTM
xDSL FTTx/VD FTTH
3090
180
Net
Pre
sent
Val
ue (
NPV
) (Eu
ros*
000)
LTE FirstFTTx First
Commercial Viability of Coverage by Technology
(days)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: ITU BB Annual report 2015
Population Coverage
LTE
FTTCFTTH
Challenge to finish the last mile
WTTx: Wireless complements Fixed
LTE-A R8/R920MHz+2*2 MIMO
WTTx 1.0
4G LTE and 4.5G Evolution Enables Wireless Broadband Comparable to FTTx
2012 2015 2018
10 Mbps
100Mbps
1000 Mbps
LTE-A R10/R1140MHz
2CC CA+4*4 MIMO
WTTx 2.0
4.5G/5G R12+80MHz+
Massive CA + Massive MIMO
WTTx 3.0
Copper (xDSL)
Fiber (FTTx)
Wireless BroadbandWired Broadband
• Fast rollout• Fast speed• Fast ROI
• Fast speed• High dense area • High value area
Rural
Sub-urban
Dense Urban
Data Source: ITU
（Household Density）
（HH/100 Person）
W1 rural,W2/W3 urban/sub-urbanWTTx & MBB coordinated
W2/W3 sub-urban/ruralWTTx has advantage
W1/W2 sub-urban/urbanFBB has advantage
38.3% 36% 35% 26% 23.5% 14.4% 11.5% 11% 10% 4.5% 4% 2.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2%Norway Germany Canada Australia Italy China UAE Brazil Saudi
ArabOman Algeria Sri Lanka Kuwait Philippines Indonesia India Cote d’lvoire Nigeria
Speed Up Subs Increase
Fast TTM
Shorten ROI
WTTx & FBB = Broadband Development
Policies: 6 proven ways to develop NBN
3FAVOURED PPP MODEL
Attract Private Sector Participation
4STATE FUNDED SUBSIDY
Financial Subsidy on CAPEX Investment.Digital divide. 6
DEMAND STIMULUS MEASURES
Promote Broadband Utilization 5
ENCOURAGE COST REDUCTION
Network Sharing,
1CLEAR BROADBAND POLICIES
Guiding BB Objectives and NBN Rollout Plan
2MANDATE OPEN ACCESS
State intervention to Promote Competition
Fiber-From- The-Home
Non-Telecom Infra. Synergy
“Deregulation”
Last mile fiber deployment must be completed before the sale of
new residential buildings
Announce deregulating for open access in 76 municipalities
30-year contractwith
7 state-owned companies
Infrastructure Regulation
Integration Boosts Economy
Source: Huawei Consulting AnalysisSource: Huawei Consulting Analysis
GDP Growth Rate %
ProductivityIncrease %
EmploymentRate
InnovationIndexState
Index
Internet PR %OTT Eco Maturity
CDN/IDCCloud
Big Data
Mobile PR%BB PR %Bandwidth
ICT Index
Result of integration of digitized tech is Internetization Bolstered by tech, but triggered
by [Internet + Verticals]
Platform: Digitization New Growth ParadigmInternetization
Verticals+ Internet
Entertainment
Industry&Manufacturing
Transportation
Banking&Finance
e-Commerce&Retail
Agriculture Smart Grid
Health
Education
Restaurant&Travel
Technology supports internetization, internetization creates new measurable growth
Technology + Business + Policy
DigitalEconomy
Technology• Gigaband• FTTx | WTTx• Network
sharing
Policy• Targets• Strategy• Stimulus• Competition• PPP models
Business• Access + Services• Take-up | ARPU• Open | Wholesale
Copyright©2016 Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. All Rights Reserved.The information in this document may contain predictive statements including, without limitation, statements regarding the future financialand operating results, future product portfolio, new technology, etc. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results anddevelopments to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the predictive statements. Therefore, such information is provided forreference purpose only and constitutes neither an offer nor an acceptance. Huawei may change the information at any time without notice.
Nigel Bruin
linkedin.com/in/nigelbruin