future proofing cities - atkins · the lagos state government believes a long term perspective is...
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FUTURE PROOFING
CITIESTHE LAGOS ENERGY SECTORRisk and opportunities for resilient growth of the Lagos energy sector
Lack
of p
ow
er generation major constraint on industrial grow
th
Lim
ited
acce
ss to power drives low density urban forms and spraw
l
No st
reet li
ghting impacts perceptions of safety
CITY TO HOUSEHOLD LEVEL IMPACTS
Damag
e to co
mpetitiveness of energy and carbon intensive sectors, impacting growth and jobs
Dispersed climate change impacts across multiple urban centres
Impa
cts o
n live
lihoods d
ue to disruptions to supply and/or price rises of household and industrial energy sources
Health impacts of air pollution
Im
pacts
on livelihoods due to poor access to utilities e.g. energy, water, sanitation
Impa
ct o
f poo
r nut
rition
al intake on health of vulnerable groups, including risks of fatalities and increased poverty
Regional conflict e.g. access to energy resources
Social unrest e.g. food riots and power black outs
Impa
ct o
f hab
itat d
estru
ction on su
pply of provisioning and regulating ecosystem services e.g. fuel wood for heating
Risk
s to
long
term
viab
ilit
y of a
gricultural production e.g. due to disruptions to water systems and lack of pow
er supply
Wid
espr
ea
d dam
age to buildings, infrastructure, industry and agriculture
Tim
e sp
ent c
ollec
ting wood and water could be used for productive activities
Stresse
s to basic services e.g. health systems
Fuelw
ood co
oking resulting in air quality and health problems
GLOBAL TO CITY LEVEL IMPACTS
REGIONAL TO CITY LEVEL (URBAN CATCHMENT) IMPACTS
HOUSEHOLD/PEOPLE
Spread of infectious diseases
Moving from risk to impact and opportunityThe Lagos State Government believes a long term perspective is essential for addressing present and future challenges related to the development of the energy sector in Lagos State.
For Atkins, the future is not a vague time horizon that allows decisions to be deferred – it is the guiding principle which governs our thinking now.
Lagos is a megacity of over 20 million people and the economic capital of Nigeria. Its rapid growth places pressure on resources and ecosystem services that support the needs of its citizens. Solutions have to create a new development path that enables the development goals in of the PATH Agenda to be achieved.
Cities like Lagos experience a complex web of interrelated environmental, social and economic risks. These range from climate change and energy security to shifting demographics, increased urbanisation and the rise of consumer expectations. What is less clear is the impact these changes will have in combination with each other, and the differential risks these pose for the city.
So how does a city make long term investment decisions that create value and provide services that are fit for the future?
The answer lies in future proofing. For Atkins it is about taking steps now to be resilient to whatever the future may hold. Utilising and developing capabilities of cities to respond to the risks associated with climate change, resource scarcity and damage to ecosystems in a way that supports inclusive urban development.
Future Proofing the Lagos Energy Sector The report accompanying this summary, Future Proofing the Lagos Energy Sector, focuses on the energy sector and its interdependent links with Agriculture, Transport & Housing – the Lagos State Government’s PATH (Power, Agriculture, Transportation and Housing) Agenda. These sectors are asset heavy and decisions taken today have consequences over long timescales.
Working with the Lagos State Government’s implementing agency for energy development – Lagos State Electricity Board, Atkins used scenario planning to investigate what the megacity of Lagos could plausibly look like in 2030. The scenarios are bounded by two highly uncertain drivers that will have a significant impact on the energy sector of the future:
Societal value placed on resources Consumer values and behaviours are hard to predict. Incomes are certain
to rise and lessons from developed economies highlight the difficulty of decoupling rising incomes from increased resource use. However, with technological advances and limited resources – will this be the same in future?
Energy price and availability Global energy demand is rising, traditional fossil fuels are ultimately finite
and climate change is with us, but we are yet to see a paradigm shift towards a low carbon energy economy. What will be the implications of this shift, if it occurs?
Whilst there are uncertainties affecting the future trajectory of the city, there are no-regrets pathways that can be taken today to prepare for an uncertain tomorrow.
Data and knowledge management – data is growing and becoming more comprehensive but it is not a panacea. Successful service delivery will continue to require critical thinking skills and an understanding of system connections.
Energy user engagement and understanding – user engagement is essential in all scenarios. There is value in developing understanding of the services and industries the energy sector supports.
Skills and workforce – a breadth of skills is required in all scenarios. Could the energy sector work with other emerging utilities to develop cross-sectoral skills at all levels, from apprenticeships to professional skills?
Innovation – the ability to innovate is fundamental to the success of organisations in all scenarios. Investing in the ability to identify and develop new technologies and processes is a no-regret pathway.
Future Proofing the Lagos Energy sector should enable a secure, affordable low carbon energy supply that provides power to every Lagos State citizen. It will provide stability against the wider federal infrastructure shortfalls in the short term and resilience to the effects of climate change , resource scarcity and other risks (shown in the diagram on the opposite page) in the long term, as well as being flexible enough to accommodate the changing needs of the city.
The risks relevant to the city energy nexus operate at different levels
High carbon emissions – carbon price risk associated with regulation and/or market mechanisms for pricing carbon
High energy use – vulnerability to limited availability and/or rising prices of traditional energy sources
Global food supply impacted by climate change
Energy infrastructure deficit - reliance on household diesel generators and fuelwood
Lack of street lighting affords opportunities for crime and affects perceptions of personal safety
Sea level rise and flooding events threaten critical infrastructure
Temperature extremes increase cooling demand
Disruption to energy generation and distribution impacting city economy and livelihoods
Risks to food security – energy constraints limiting availability and/or rising prices of basic foodstuffs. Fish catches in tropical regions forecast to fall by up to 60% by 2050. Drought leads to increased pumping to extract and transfer water
Ecosystem services at risk from unplanned urbanisation
GLOBAL TO LOCAL RISKS REGIONAL TO LOCAL RISKS LOCAL RISKS
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FUTURE PROOFING
CITIESTHE LAGOS ENERGY SECTOR
LAGOS PATH AGENDA AND 2020 MEGACITY GOALSLagos State Government under the leadership of Governor Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN) has identified Power, Agriculture, Transport and Housing (PATH) as the “Quickest drivers for post-recession economic recovery and poverty eradication”, noting their enabling capacity to accelerate inclusive development in Lagos.
Health and wellbeing: The city provides Lagosians with services and facilities to lead healthy lifestyles and wellbeing.
Poverty eradication: The PATH agenda and associated projects and programmes dramatically reduces numbers of urban poor.
Enabling infrastructure: Provision of essential infrastructure enables resilient growth of the city.
Economic growth: Inward investment and economic growth emerges in response to greatly improved physical conditions and inclusive policies and programmes.
Access to goods and services: Well planned infrastructure – e.g. energy, transport, landuse, food systems, all provide access to goods and services essential for economic growth and wellbeing.
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270% OF RURAL POPULATION EMPLOYED IN AGRICULTURE Addressing energy deficit in rural economy
supports food production and processing investment
More rural opportunities reduces migration
Provision of power will support technological innovation and production efficiencies
UP TO 60% OF FRESH PRODUCE WASTED IN SUPPLY CHAIN Energy will enable cold storage and
distribution networks, improving access to market, reducing waste and improving food hygiene
Stronger interstate trade links with reliable power
Higher temperatures resulting in greater evapo-transpiration and a larger water demand for crops can be managed
Shifting to local and regional food production model more adaptable and resilient to effects of climate change and regional insecurity
Local model reduces expenditure on food imports
10% OF FOOD CONSUMED IS PRODUCED IN LAGOS STATE
LAGOS IS THE LARGEST MEGACITY IN THE WORLD WITHOUT INTEGRATED MASS TRANSIT NETWORK Mass transit supports modal shift, reducing car dependency
Air quality and public health will be improved
Lagos State Strategic Transport Master Plan dependent on c.200MW of additional capacity to power rail and metro lines
1 MILLION REGISTERED CARS Rising incomes correspond to rising car
ownership exacerbating congestion
Integrated land use planning and transport can avoid car dependency
DAILY TRIPS DEMAND ESTIMATED TO REACH 30M/DAY IN 2030 Multimodal mass transit system will
improve movement efficiencies in the city
Linking landuse and transport planning will be essential to support sustainable urban form and reducing car dependency
In cities the spatial relationship between socio-economic activity; urban form and movement networks governs urban performance. Supporting integrated transport and landuse planning in Lagos will reduce congestion, improve local economic activity and reduce transport sector energy demand.
60% LIVE IN INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS Energy access is an important part of the
‘enabling’ approach to integrating informal settlements into the city
80% OF HOUSEHOLDS RELY ON DIESEL GENERATORS Households spending 50N/kWh for diesel
generation compared with 13N/kWh for grid electricity
Lack of access to power results in use of generators and hardwood fuel resulting in air quality problems and increasing risk of respiratory disease
40% OF POPULATION HAVE NO ACCESS TO POWER GRID Human capital and wellbeing improved with
access to utilities
Limited street lighting enables crime and impacts on personal safety
Infant mortality reduced through provision of reliable power to hospitals
Building regulations support energy conservation and efficiency
LAGOS IS A SPRAWLED CITY Improved access to power enables higher
density mixed use development (use of elevators)
Integrated land use and transport development and higher density development will help tackled encroachment into protected habitats
Integrated planning helps avoid locking in car dependency
Lagos aims to be a slum free city and provision of energy infrastructure is an essential component of this journey. Access to power will support the development of the basic social services presently absent in the city’s informal settlements and support economic growth and integration with the city.
Commerce and industry’s potential contribution to energy use and carbon emissions is significant and growing. Future strategies will need to address this sector in combination with the other needs identified in the city. This recognises the role commerce and industry will play in the economic life of Lagos.
Reliable, secure, affordable power provision is an essential element of infrastructure for Lagos State’s SPAAG (Strategic Programme for Accelerated Agricultural Growth).
HOUSING AND BUILT ENVIRONMENT
COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY
TRANSPORT
AGRICULTURE
OPPORTUNITIES OPPORTUNITIES
AGRICULTURE4
10% OF FOOD CONSUMED IS
PRODUCED IN LAGOS STATE
70% OF RURAL POPULATION
EMPLOYED IN AGRICULTURE
60% OF FRESH PRODUCE
WASTED IN SUPPLY CHAIN
TRANSPORT
LARGESTMEGACITY IN THE WORLD
WITHOUT INTEGRATED MASS TRANSIT NETWORK
7% ANNUAL INCREASE IN
CAR OWNERSHIP
30MTRIPS PER DAY IN 2030
1
3HO
USIN
G & BUILT ENVIRONMENT
60% LIVE IN INFORMAL
SETTLEMENTS
80% OF HOUSEHOLDS RELY
ON DIESEL GENERATORS
40% OF POPULATION HAVE NO ACCESS TO POWER GRID
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ENERGY1 5432
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OPPORTUNITIES
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FUTURE PROOFING LAGOS ENERGY SECTOR – POTENTIAL INTERVENTIONS Development of offshore gas
Embedded generation – Independent Power Projects (conventional and renewable)
Municipal Energy Fund to finance rural and urban solar projects
Community biogas projects
Offshore wind
Compressed Natural Gas transportation
Promotion of energy efficient appliances
Building regulations
LAGOS ENERGY SECTOR 2030. INCLUSIVE, RESILIENT AND ADAPTABLE 100% access to electricity
State has control and accountability for energy infrastructure
Independent Power Projects result in stable and reliable power supply, lower air pollution and carbon emissions
Renewable energy accounts for at least 20% of state energy mix
Incentives and education programs support energy conservation
Building regulations improve energy performance
Street lighting covers 100% of commercial and residential areas
Fossil fuel subsidies reformed and investment in sustainable energy
LAGOS ENERGY SECTOR TODAY. HIGH RISK AND VULNERABLE Power deficit equal to 9,000-10,000MW and low
utilisation of generating capacity
40% have no access to the electricity grid and inadequate transmission capacity
150kWh/yr average annual energy consumption
80% population relying on diesel generators
Governance challenges Federal – State ownership / management of assets
Minimal renewable energy in Lagos State energy mix
Fossil fuel subsidies in place
Physical environment and cli m
ate changePopulation growth and urbanisation
Agriculture and food security
Ener
gy
Fina
nce
Workforce and skills
Transport secto
r gro
wth
© Atkins Ltd except where stated otherwise.
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Alastair McMahonCities, Atkins
Euston Tower, 286 Euston Road, London NW1 3AT
Tel: +44 20 7121 2227
Mob: +44 7815 24 3218
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.atkinsglobal.com/fpc
RISKS FACING THE LAGOS
ENERGY SECTOR
30+ million Lagos State population in 2030
200,000 engineers will be required for the energy sector over the next 15 years
10% of food consumed is produced in Lagos State
200MW New generation capacity required for planned mass transit infrastructure
$14 to $33 billion is required to fund investment in energy generation by 2030 depending on technology
16,000 – 27,000MW of new generation capacity required in Lagos State by 2030
EIGHT-FOLD increase in population exposed to storm surges by the 2070s
Damilola OgunbiyiGeneral Manager, The Lagos State Electricity Board
Old Works Yard Road, Old Secretariat Ikeja, GRA, Lagos
Tel: +234 803 5761 293
Mob: +234 703 7628 899
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.lseb.gov.ng
If you are interested in finding out more about Future Proofing the Lagos Energy Sector or how Atkins can support your strategy development, please get in touch with us.
130% 130% increase in days over 35°C (in an average year) by the 2050s
130% 130% increase in days over 35°C (in an average year) by the 2050s
7 million tonnes of municipal solid waste in Lagos State by 2030. 80% increase on current levels
7 million tonnes of municipal solid waste in Lagos State by 2030. 80% increase on current levels