FULL PLANET, EMPTY PLATES

Carrelli Lydia,Cassio Paola, Yongchang He, Ottanà Giulia, Rytsola Valentina, Serrini Livia

The New Geopolitics of Food Scarcity

By Lester R. Brown

CORN CROP TIME

• Wheat and rice : world’s leading food grains

• Corn: - Dominates the use of grain in livestock and poultry feed - Vulnerable to extreme heat and drought

FROM AN ERA OF FOOD ABUNDANCE TO AN ERA OF SCARCITY

• 1986

• Until 2001

• From 2002 to 2011

annual world carryoverstocks of grain: 74days of consumption

annual world carryover stocks of grain: 107 days of consumption

phasing out of the U.S. cropland program

• Now world living one year to the next

• Last half of the 20th century carryover stocks of grain+ U.S. farm programs

• Soon restricting exports to decrease domestic food price

EARLIER CIVILIZATIONS UNDERMINED BY FOOD SHORTAGES

• Sumerians: rising salt levels in the soil

• Mayans: deforestation and

losses of soil from erosion

Source: http://pixshark.com/sumerian-irrigation.htm

Source: Dunning et al. (1998)

SOURCES OF GRAIN DEMAND GROWTH

1. Population growth

Source: http://bixby.berkeley.edu/research/population/

2. Consumers moving up the food chain

3. Conversion of grain into fuel for cars

SOURCES OF GRAIN DEMAND GROWTH

Decline in stocks of grain

Rising food prices+ Spread of hunger

CHALLENGES ON THE PRODUCTION FRONT

1. Soil erosion

CHALLENGES ON THE PRODUCTION FRONT

2. Growing water shortages

• Aquifers being depleted

• Irrigation wells starting to go dry

3. Plateauing of rice and wheat yields in some agriculturally advanced countries

4. Earth’s rising temperature

CHALLENGES ON THE PRODUCTION FRONT

1 °C rise in temperature above the optimum 10% decline in grain yields

POPULATION GROWTH

• Consequences of the explosive population growth (forests, fisheries, grasslands, aquifers, soils)

• Forests: overcutting - growing demand for firewood, lumber, paper - forests are shrinking - Mauritania

• U.N. Demographic projections: - world population 9.3 billion in 2050 - enough water to grow food for the 2.3 billion more people?

• Good news: - Western and Eastern Europe reached population stability (970 million people) - East Asia (Taiwan, China, North and South Korea, Japan) very near to population stability

- Indian Subcontinent (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh)- Sub-Saharan Africa (ex. Ethiopia)

• Bad news: All of the population growth is in developing countries:

Both 2.2 billion people in 2050

• Frank Notestein: “Three-stage demographic model”

SOLUTIONS:

• Smaller families

• Access to reproductive health care and family planning services for every woman

• Two children per couple

• Stabilized world population

• Every country moving into “stage-three”

MOVING UP THE FOOD CHAIN

• Food habits depend on geographic location protein change

USA, Brazil, Argentina:land-rich with grassland

Beef and mutton

Germany and China: densely populated with lack of space

Pork

• During the years, meat consumption is changed: - 1950: beef and pork dominated - 1997: poultry overtook beef

Nowadays : pork is the world’s leading meat China consumer #1

• During the years greatest restructuring in seafood consumption

Japan: too much land to produce rice and it has to turn to seafood to satisfy the demand of protein

China:First one that turned to fish

farming 2010: 37 million tons

Source:http://community.theaquaponicsource.com/profiles/blogs/fishes-for-aquaponics-in-china

• The consumption of meat, milk, eggs and farmed fish indirectly pushes

the consumption of grain

SalmonShrimps

Aquaculture is not always environmentally sustainable

and efficient

Source: http://www.shrimpnews.com/Graphics/Nicaragua/MangrovesNicaragua.jpg

1. Milk production in India

THREE DIFFERENT MODELS

2. Chinese model: cultivation turnover

3. Chinese aquaculture

Source: http://www.slideshare.net/sudarshanpatel5/dairy-presentation-pgdma

Necessity to occupy an intermediate position in the food chain: it will improve our life expectancy

EARTH’S CLIMATE: RISING TEMPERATURES What makes the Earth’s temperatures rise?

The massive burning of fossil fuels is increasing the level of carbon dioxid in the atmposhpere

http://climate.nasa.gov/

WHICH ARE THE CONSEQUENCES?

1. Agriculture: high temperatures interfere with pollination and reduce photosynthesis of basic food crops

- corn pollination - rice pollination

2. Increasing drought

3. Spreading of wildfires

4. Heat waves1988 U.S.A.

2003 U.E.

2010 Russia

5. Melting mountain glaciers

MELTING MOUNTAIN GLACIERS

• China: the glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau feedYangtze river

Yellow river• America

The Andes Perù

The Rocky Mountains Colorado River

• Greenland and Antarctic Rising sea level

BOOM OF PRODUCTION OF SOYBEAN

Reasons:

• Attainment of status as valued grain (oil and animal meal)

• Moving up in the food chain (more meat)

• Growth of population

• Function as source for biodiesel

19641968

19721976

19801984

19881992

19962000

20042008

020406080

100120140160180200

World Soybean Meal Use for Feed, 1964-2011

Feed Use (Million Tons)

Source: earth policy institution. See: http://www.earth-policy.org/books/fpep/fpep_data#10.

BOOM OF PRODUCTION OF SOYBEAN

Manifestation:

land for soybeanaccounts more thanthat for other grains inthe western hemispheric

• Surpassed wheat in 1994 (more than twice as wheat in 2010)

• Surpassed corn in 2010

19601964

19681972

19761980

19841988

19921996

20002004

20080

102030405060708090

Million ton

Wheat Corn Soybeans

Area Harvested for Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans in the Western Hemisphere, 1960-2011

Source: earth policy institution. See: http://www.earthpolicy.org/books/fpep/fpep_data#10

TOP 10 PRODUCERS, CONSUMERS, EXPORTERS, AND IMPORTERS OF SOYBEANS, 2011

Producers Consumers

Rank Country Quantity Rank Country Quantity

Million Tons Million Tons

1 United States 83,2 1 China 70,8

2 Brazil 65,5 2 United States 48,8

3 Argentina 41,0 3 Brazil 39,5

4 China 13,5 4 Argentina 37,8

5 India 11,0 5 European Union 12,4

6 Canada 4,2 6 India 11,2

7 Paraguay 4,0 7 Mexico 3,6

8 Bolivia 2,2 8 Japan 3,0

9 Ukraine 2,2 9 Indonesia 2,6

10 Russia 1,7 10 Russia 2,4

Rest of World 7,5 Rest of World 21,9

Total 236,0 Total 253,8

Exporters Importers

Rank Country Quantity Rank Country Quantity

Million Tons Million Tons

1 United States 36,7 1 China 57,5

2 Brazil 36,7 2 European Union 11,0

3 Argentina 7,8 3 Mexico 3,4

4 Paraguay 3,1 4 Japan 2,7

5 Canada 2,8 5 Taiwan 2,3

6 Uruguay 1,6 6 Indonesia 2,0

7 Ukraine 1,3 7 Thailand 1,9

8 China 0,3 8 Egypt 1,6

9 South Africa 0,1 9 Vietnam 1,2

10 Croatia 0,0 10 Turkey 1,1

Rest of World 0,2 Rest of World 5,5

Total 90,5 Total 90,1

Source: earth policy institution. See: www.earth-policy.org/datacenter/xls/book_fpep_ch9_3.xlsx

PROBLEMS OWING TO INCREASING SOYBEAN YIELD

Reason:

characteristic ofsoybean yield– Difficult to

raise yield by increasing the yield per acre

19501954

19581962

19661970

19741978

19821986

19901994

19982002

20062010

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Production (Million Ton)Area Harvested (Million Hectares)Yield (Tons per Hectare)

World Soybean Production, Area, and Yield, 1950-2011

Source: earth policy institution. See: www.earth-policy.org/datacenter/xls/book_fpep_ch9_1.xlsx

PROBLEMS OWING TO INCREASING SOYBEAN YIELD

• Manifestations:– More lands was occupied for soybean production– Less lands was available for other grains– The adverse effects of transformation of usage of land• Starvation• Acceleration of deforestation• Loss of biodiversity• Increase of carbon emission

• Classic case: Brazil: land clearing plan in the Amazon Basin and the Cerrado

19701988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20100

100000200000300000400000500000600000700000800000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000Loss of Forest Cover in the Brazilian Amazon, 1970-2011

Total Loss Since 1970 Annual Loss

19701988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20100.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Share of 1970 Cover lossing

Source: earth policy institution. See: http://www.earth-policy.org/books/fpep/fpep_data#10

SOLUTIONS FOR PROBLEMS OF MASS CONSUMPTION OF SOYBEAN

• Nexus in the problems: Economic pressure originated from the increasing demands of soybean at a

rapid rate

• Cardinal principle of the solutions: Curbing the growth in demand for soybean

• Concrete solutions:– Stabilization of population worldwide– Advocacy of downturn in meat consumption to affluent population

• Other ways?– Scientific progress in increasing the soybean yield per acre– Search for the substitute of soybean in animal meal– ……

GLOBAL LAND RUSHRising food prices Restriction of food exportations “land grabs”

• Leading countries: Saudi Arabia, South Korea, China, India• Countries selling or leasing lands: Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia

1. Land acquisition is also water acquisition

Who benefits?

PROBLEMS:

2. Secret agreements local farmers are not at the negotiating table

3. Increase in world’s hunger and human rights violations

4. Knowledge deficit problems in building infrastructures number of projects ≠ actual started productions

Source: http://www.bioecogeo.com/2014/10/28

• The World Bank working with the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization: set of principles governing land acquisitions

Developing countries need international support for local village-level farmers and NOT big corporations bringing large-scale, heavily mechanized, capital- intensive agriculture

• Global power struggle for control of the earth’s land and water resources

DEMAND SIDE1. Stabilize world population2. Eradicate poverty3. Reduce excessive meat consumption4. Reverse biofuels policies that encourage the use of food, land or

water that could be used to feed people

SUPPLY SIDE5. Stabilize climate6. Raise water productivity7. Controlling soil erosion

‘’The challenge now is to move our civilization onto a sustainable path before climatechange spirals out of control and food shortages overwhelm our political system’’

PRESSING NEEDS