Full planet, empty plates: 

The new geopolitics of food scarcity

SUMMARY

FOOD, THE WEAK LINK“WE ARE ENTERING A NEW ERA OF RAISING FOOD PRICES AND SPREADING HUNGER” –LESTER BROWN

FOOD EQUATION:

Demand Population growth Rising affluence conversion of food into

fuel

Supply Soil Erosion Growing water Shortages Grain yields plateauing Rising temperatures

PRODUCTION HAS ITS LIMITS BUT DEMAND KEEPS ON

INCREASING

FOOD SECURITY

Large stocks of grains cushioned world crop shortfalls.

1950

U.S. Cropland set aside program

Annual world carryover stocks constantly dropping

Phasing out of U.S. cropland set aside program

Food Abundance period Barely Keeping pace with demand

THE WORLD IS NOW LIVING FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT

1986 Present

RISING FOOD PRICES, STRAINED BUDGETS AND HUNGER

Rising demand is raising food prices, for consumers who spend more than 50% of their income on food this

represents a serious problem, forcing them to eat less.

The increasing demand for food is rising food prices, making the poor not being able to keep up with them. Now many households that ate at least one meal a day have foodless days as a weekly routine.

RISING FOOD PRICES, STRAINED BUDGETS AND HUNGER

Despite the efforts to eradicate hunger, relentless population growth is making it more difficult and is putting excessive pressure on land and water resources making it difficult for farmers to keep pace. Most of the nearly 1 billion people who are chronically hungry live in the Indian sub-continent and the sub-Saharan Africa.

RISING FOOD PRICES, STRAINED BUDGETS AND HUNGER

These graphs show how population is growing even faster in developing countries, precisely countries that have hunger problems have the highest population growth rates making this problem persistent over time.

THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

Stage 1: High Birth Rates High Death

Rates

Stage 2 : High Birth Rates Decreasing Death

Rates

Stage 3 : Decreasing Birth

Rates Decreasing

Death Rates

Stage 4 : Low Birth Rates Low Death Rates

countr ie s that fa i l to sh ift to s mal le r fami l ies r i s k be ing over whe lme d by land and water s hortage s , d i s e ase and c iv i l confl icts .

governme nts cannot longer prov ide pers ona l s e cur i ty, food se cur i ty or bas ic s oc ia l se r v ices s uch as educati on and hea l th care

THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

C o u nt r i e s t h at h ave m a d e i t i nto s ta ge t h re e w i t h l owe r fe r ti l i t y a n d fe we r c h i l d re n b e n efi t fo r h i g h e r ra te s o f s av i n g s , t h e y h ave a “d e m o g ra p h i c b o n u s ” : t h e n u m b e r o f d e p e n d e nt s d e c l i n e re l ati ve to t h e n u m b e r o f wo r k i n g a d u l t s . I nve st m e nt r i s e s a n d e co n o m i c g row t h a c c e l e rate s .

T h e o n l y h u m a n e o p ti o n i s to m ove q u i c k l y to re p l a c e m e nt- l e ve l fe r ti l i t y o f t wo c h i l d re n p e r co u p l e a n d to s ta b i l i ze wo r l d p o p u l ati o n a s s o o n a s p o s s i b l e

THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

In ever y soc iety where income has r i s en , the appeti te for meat , mi lk e g g s and s ea food has ge ne rate d an e normous g row th in an imal prote in cons umpti on.

As pe op le consume more meat , mi lk , e g g s and farme d fi sh ind i re ct g ra in cons umpti on r i s e s .

MOVING UP THE FOOD CHAIN

13 Pounds = 1 Pound

MOVING UP THE FOOD CHAINB etwee n 1950-1990 the oce an ic fi s h catch c l imbed f rom 17 Mi l l ion to 84 mi l l ion tons . The human appeti te for s e afood has outg rown the susta inab le y ie ld o f ocean ic fi s he r ies . Today 4/5 o f fi s he r ies a re be ing fi s hed at or beyond the i r s usta inab le capac i ty. Many have de c l ined and s ome have co l laps ed .

MOVING UP THE FOOD CHAIN

Worldwide roughly 35% of the 2.3 bi l l ion ton annual grain harvest is used for feed. In contrast, nearly al l of the soybean harvest ends up as feed.

People with the longest l i fe expectancy are not those who l ive very low or very high on the food chain but those who occupy an intermediate positi on.

FOOD OR FUELN o t o n l y a re b i o f u e l s ra i s i n g fo o d p r i c e s a n d i n c r e a s i n g t h e n u m b e r o f h u n g r y p e o p l e ; i t a l s o m a ke s l i tt l e s e n s e f ro m a e n e rg y e ffi c i e n c y p e rs p e c ti v e .

T h e g ra i n r e q u i r e d to fi l l a 2 5 ga l l o n f u e l ta n k o f a v e h i c l e w i t h e t h a n o l j u s t o n c e w o u l d fe e d o n e p e rs o n fo r a w h o l e y e a r.

I n te r m s o f e n e r g y e ffi c i e n c y, g ra i n - b a s e d e t h a n o l i s a c l e a r l o s e r : t h e e n e r g y r e t u r n o n e n e rg y i nv e s te d i n p ro d u c i n g c o r n - b a s e d e t h a n o l i s o n l y 1 . 5 to 1 .

FOOD OR FUELG o o d n e w s i s t h at a s m o re s t r i n g e n t U. S . A u to f u e l - e ffi c i e n c y s ta n d a r d s a re i n t ro d u c e d , ga s o l i n e u s e d b y c a rs w i l l d e c l i n e , a n d g ra i n - b a s e d e t h a n o l w i l l a l s o d e c l i n e .

A M a j o r m o v e to e l e c t r i c c a rs w i l l f u r t h e r re d u c e t h e u s e o f ga s o l i n e , u s i n g e l e c t r i c i t y f ro m w i n d fa r m s , s o l a r c e l l s , o r g e o t h e r m a l p o w e r p l a n t s to p o w e r c a rs w i l l d ra m ati c a l l y re d u c e c a r b o n e m i s s i o n s .

WATER AND FOOD SCARCITYA s a d u l t s e a c h o f u s d r i n k n e a r l y 4 l i te rs o f w ate r a d ay, b u t i t ta ke s 2 0 0 0 l i t e rs o f w ate r to p ro d u c e t h e fo o d w e c o n s u m e e a c h d ay.

7 0 % o f w o r l d w ate r i s u s e d fo r i r r i gati o n .

WATER AND FOOD SCARCITY40% of the world grain harvest is grown on irrigated land, and 40% of world irr igated area is dependent on underground water.

Water tables are fal l ing, irr igati on wells are going dry.

If the pumping surpasses the sustainable yield of the aquifer, aquifers are depleted.

GRAIN YIELDS STARTING TO PLATEAU

G ra in y ie ld per hectare cannot conti nue r i s ing indefi n i te ly, once we remove nutr ients const ra ints by app ly ing ferti l i zer and we remove s o i l moisture constra ints by i r r igati ng then i s the potenti a l o f photosynthe s i s and the loca l c l imate that u lti mate ly l im i t c rop y ie lds .

The earth r i s ing tempe rature i s mak ing i t more d iffi cu l t to s usta in a steady r i s e in g ra in y ie lds .

RISING TEMPERATURE-RISING FOOD PRICES

Hi gh temperatures i nter fere wi th po l l i nati o n and reduce pho to sy nthes i s o f bas i c fo o d c ro ps . H igh temperatures can a l so dehydrate p l ants .

R u l e o f thumb sug gest that fo r 1 degree Ce l s i us r i se above the no rm dur i ng the growi ng seaso n l owers wheat , r i ce and co rn y i e l ds by 1 0 %.

RISING TEMPERATURE-RISING FOOD PRICES

C h i n a a n d I n d i a a re t h e w o r l d ’s 2 to p w h e at p ro d u c e rs a n d r i c e h a r ve st .

I t i s t h e g l a c i e rs i c e m e l t t h at ke e ps t h e m a j o r r i ve rs o f I n d i a a n d c h i n a fl ow i n g d u r i n g t h e d r y s e a s o n , t h e refo re t h e w o r l d h a s n eve r fa c e d s u c h a p re d i c ta b l y m a s s i ve t h re at to fo o d p ro d u c ti o n a s t h e m e l ti n g m o u nta i n g l a c i e rs o f A s i a .

Himalayan glacier

WHAT CAN WE DO?(NOT IN THE BOOK)Support educati on.

Stabi l ize populati on worldwide as soon as possible by el iminati ng poverty. Educati on plays a big role, educated men and women who have fewer chi ldren can become more economical ly powerful and contribute to a bett er future for their famil ies and their communiti es.

WHAT CAN WE DO?

Reduce excessive meat consumpti on.

By eati ng less meat we can save: Water Land Grains Fuel.

WHAT CAN WE DO?Reduce excessive meat consumpti on.

By eati ng less meat we can reduce methane emissions and ease global warming

WHAT CAN WE DO?Reverse biofuels policies

Do not support the use of biofuels, do not buy grain-based fuel.

EVERY DAY YOU MAKE A CHOICE

Every ti me you seat down to eat you make a choice, choose wisely, do not eat other ’s food by choosing high resource consumpti on food.

Buy local.

Walk or use public transportati on when possible.

Choose an issue to work on and share your concern.

Join an insti tuti on that works on what you concern the most.