Growing opportunities in climate change adaptation

EUFIWACC climate risk information day for consultants Brussels - 2nd June 2015

From climate change research to

climate change information products

Daniela Jacob

Climate Service Center 2.0

daniela.jacob@hzg.de

Outline

The Climate is changing - IPCC

European reactions

Science and service: networking and innovation

Key SPM Messages

19 Headlines on less than 2 Pages

2009: WGI Outline Approved

14 Chapters

Atlas of Regional Projections

54,677 Review Comments

by 1089 Experts

2010: 259 Authors Selected

Summary for Policymakers

ca. 14,000 Words

AR5 IPCC WGI: Headline Statements from the Summary

for Policymakers

Observed Changes in the Climate System

• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s,

many of the

observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia.

• Atmosphere and ocean have warmed

• Amounts of snow and ice have diminished

• Sea level has risen

• Concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased

According to IPCC, http://www.climatechange2013.org/

Observed globally

averaged combined land

and ocean surface

temperature anomaly

1850-2012

IPCC AR5 Headline statements

Observed Temperature (near surface)

Difference between 2000-2012 and 1990-1999 [ºC]

Source: Met Office

According to IPCC, http://www.climatechange2013.org/

IPCC AR5 WG2:

Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability

SOCIOECONOMIC PROCESSES

Socioeconomic Pathways

Adaptation and Mitigation Actions

Governance

CLIMATE

Natural Variability

Anthropogenic Climate Change

RISK Hazards

Exposure

Vulnerability

IMPACTS

EMISSIONS and Land-use Change

SCOPING

Identify Risks, Vulnerabilities, and Objectives

Establish Decision- Making Criteria

ANALYSIS

Identify Options

Assess Risks

Evaluate Tradeoffs

IMPLEMENTATION

Review and Learn

Implement Decisions

Monitor

11

r

Risk Level with Current Adaptation

Potential for Additional Adaptation to Reduce Risk

Risk Level with High Adaptation

Risk-Level Very Low Med

Very High

4°C

2°C

Present

Long Term (2080-2100

Near Term (2030-2040

Risks for Low-Lying Coastal Areas

Loss of Livelihoods, Settlements, Infrastructure, Ecosystem Services, and Economic Stability

SMALL ISLANDS

Compounded Stress on Water Resources

Reduced Crop Productivity and Livelihood and Food Security

Vector- and Water- Borne Diseases

AFRICA

ASIA Increased Flood Damage to Infrastructure , Livelihoods, and Settlements

Heat-Related Human Mortality

Increased Drought- Related Water and Food Shortage

Increased Losses and Impacts from Extreme Heat Events

Increased Flood Losses and Impacts EUROPE

Increased Water Restrictions

Increased Flood Damage to Infrastructure and Settlements

Increased Risks to Coastal Infrastructure and Low-Lying Ecosystems

AUSTRALASIA Significant Change in Composition and Structure of Coral Reef Systems

Increased Risks from Wildfires

Heat-Related Human Mortality

Damages from River and Coastal Urban Floods

NORTH AMERICA

Reduced Water Availability and Increased Flooding and Landslides

Reduced Food Production and Quality

CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA

Vector-Borne Diseases

Reduced Fisheries Catch Potential at Low Latitudes

Increased Mass Coral Bleaching and Mortality

Coastal Inundation and Habitat Loss

THE OCEAN

Unprecedented Challenges, Especially from Rate of Change

Risks for Ecosystems

POLAR REGIONS Risks for Health and Well-Being

Risks

Observed climate trends and future climate projections show regionally

varying changes in temperature and rainfall in Europe [high confidence]

with projected increases in temperature throughout Europe and

increasing precipitation in Northern Europe and

decreasing precipitation in Southern Europe

Climate projections show

• a marked increase

• in high temperature extremes [high confidence],

• meteorological droughts [medium confidence]

• heavy precipitation events [high confidence]

with variations across Europe and

• Small or no changes in wind speed extremes [low confidence] except increases

in winter wind speed extremes over Central and Northern Europe [medium

confidence]

In agreement

with AR4

Observed and projected climate trends

Climate change will increase the likelihood of systemic failures across European

countries caused by extreme climate events affecting multiple sectors [medium

confidence]

Extreme weather events currently have

• significant impacts in Europe in multiple economic sectors [high confidence] as

well as

• adverse social and health effects [high confidence]

There is limited evidence that resilience to heat waves and fires has improved in Europe

[medium confidence] ,

while some countries have improved their flood protection following major flood

events.

Climate change is very likely to increase the frequency and intensity of heat waves,

particularly in Southern Europe [high confidence] with mostly adverse implications for

health, agriculture, forestry, energy production and use, transport, tourism, labour

productivity, and the built environment

Impacts on multiple sectors by extreme events

14

Climate change is expected to impede economic activity in Southern

Europe more than in other sub-regions [medium confidence],

and may increase future intra-regional disparity [low confidence]

There are also important differences in vulnerability within sub-regions, for

example, plant species and some economic sectors are most vulnerable in high

mountain areas due to lack of adaptation options [medium confidence].

Southern Europe is particularly vulnerable to climate change [high

confidence] as multiple

sectors will be adversely affected (tourism, agriculture, forestry, infrastructure,

energy, population health) [high confidence]

Impacts of climate change and regional differences

Climate change is projected to affect the impacts of hot and cold weather extremes

on transport leading to economic damage and/or adaptation costs, as well as

some benefits (e.g. reduction of maintenance costs) during winter [medium

confidence]

Climate change is projected

• to reduce severe accidents in road transport [medium confidence] and

• adversely affect inland water transport in summer in some rivers (e.g. the Rhine)

after 2050 [medium confidence].

Damages to rail infrastructure from high temperatures may also increase [medium

confidence].

Adaptation through maintenance and operational measures can reduce adverse impacts

to some extent.

Transport

© Europäische Union, 1995-2014

Climate change is expected to affect future energy production and

transmission

Hydropower production is likely to decrease in all sub-regions except Scandinavia

[high confidence]

Climate change is

• unlikely to affect wind energy production before 2050 [medium confidence] but will

have a negative impact in summer and a varied impact in winter after 2050 [medium

confidence].

• likely to decrease thermal power production during summer [high confidence]

Climate change will increase the problems associated with overheating in buildings

[medium confidence]

• Although climate change is very likely to decrease space heating demand [high

confidence], cooling demand will increase [very high confidence] although income

growth mostly drives projected cooling demand up to 2050 [medium confidence]

More energy efficient buildings and cooling systems as well as demand-side

management will reduce future energy demands

Energy production and transmission

© Ruhr Nachrichten

Climate change will increase irrigation needs [high confidence]

but future irrigation will be constrained by reduced runoff, demand from other

sectors, and by economic costs

By 2050s, irrigation will not be sufficient to prevent damage from heat waves to crops

in some sub-regions [medium confidence].

System costs will increase under all climate scenarios [high confidence]

Integrated management of water, also across countries’ boundaries, is needed to

address future competing demands between agriculture, energy, conservation and

human settlements

Irrigation

©agri85

As a result of increased evaporative demand, climate change is likely to

significantly reduce water availability from river abstraction and from groundwater

resources [medium confidence],

in the context of increased demand (from agriculture, energy and industry, and domestic

use) and cross-sectoral implications which are not fully understood

Some adaptation is possible through uptake of more water efficient technologies and

water saving strategies

Water availability

©Abbie Trayler-Smith

Climate change may adversely affect background levels of tropospheric ozone

[low confidence, limited evidence, low agreement], assuming no change in

emissions, but the implications for future particulate pollution (which is more

health-damaging) are very uncertain

Higher temperatures may have affected trends in ground level tropospheric ozone [low

confidence]

Climate change is likely to

• decrease surface water quality due to higher temperatures and changes in

precipitation patterns [medium confidence]

• increase soil salinity in coastal regions [low confidence]

Climate change may also increase soil erosion (from increased extreme events) and

reduce soil fertility [low confidence, limited evidence]

Environmental Quality and

Biological Conservation

Adaptation

The capacity to adapt in Europe is high compared to other world regions, but there

are important differences in impacts and in the capacity to respond between and

within the European sub-regions.

In Europe, adaptation policy has been developed at international (European Union),

national and local government level including the prioritisation of adaptation options.

There is limited systematic information on current implementation or effectiveness of

adaptation measures or policies

Some adaptation planning has been integrated into coastal and water management, as

well as disaster risk management

There is limited evidence of adaptation planning in rural development or land-use

planning

Adaptation will incur a cost, estimated from detailed bottom-up sector-specific studies

for coastal defences, energy production, energy use, and agriculture

The costs of adapting buildings (houses, schools, hospitals) and upgrading flood

defences increase under all scenarios relative to no climate change [high confidence]

Some impacts will be unavoidable due to limits (physical, technological, social,

economic or political)

Adaptation costs

There is also emerging evidence regarding opportunities and unintended

consequences of policies, strategies and measures that address adaptation and/or

mitigation goals

Some agricultural practices can reduce GHG emissions and also increase

resilience of crops to temperature and rainfall variability

There is evidence for unintended consequences of mitigation policies in the built

environment (especially dwellings) and energy sector [medium confidence]

Low carbon policies in the transport and energy sectors to reduce emissions are

associated with large benefits to human health [high confidence].

Opportunities and unintended consequences

Key risks from climate change in Europe

and potential for reducing through mitigation and adaptation

EU – answers/reactions to IPCC reports

•Interview EU-Kommissar Carlos Moedas (Research Funding)

•European Roadmap for the Development of a European Market

for Climate Services (Research, Innovation, Jobs)

•Copernicus Climate Change (European Services)

30. Dezember 2014, 11:36 Uhr, EU-Kommissar Carlos Moedas, "Ich verstehe Forscher besser”

http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/mensch/carlos-moedas-die-plaene-des-neuen-eu-forschungskommissars-a-

1008775.html

AUSZÜGE

•...einer der wichtigsten Pläne der neuen Kommission ist zudem der Start eines Investionsprogramms,

das gezielt Netzwerke und Infrastrukturen in Europa aufbaut, etwa in Bildung, Energie, Transport - und

in der Forschung.

•...Forschung - und vor allem die Grundlagenforschung - wird nicht zur Seite gedrängt.

•… Ich werde nicht ruhen, bis jeder in Europa begreift, dass wir nur durch die Stärkung einer offene

Wissenschaft, einer Beteiligung der Bürger in Forschung und Wissenschaft, ein neues Level radikaler

Innovationen erreichen werden. Das begründet unseren künftigen Wohlstand

•Zu Horizon 2020, ...Eine gehörige Portion Vertrauen und Kreativität ist jetzt erforderlich, um den

europäischen Forschungsraum auf eine gemeinsame Spur zu bringen, um neue Handlungsoptionen

zu entwickeln - zum Beispiel, um praktikable Lösungen für globale Probleme zu finden.

•...Die Stärkung des europäischen Forschungsraums meint auch die Öffnung eines

grenzüberschreitenden Arbeitsmarkts für Forscher. Das ist langfristig sinnvoll: Rund 62 Prozent des

Produktivitätswachstums in der EU entstehen durch Innovationen. Die Länder, die in der

Vergangenheit mehr in Forschung und Innovation investierten, konnten der Wirtschaftskrise am besten

widerstehen

This Roadmap will help establishing a framework for engaging the relevant actors to find solutions for the development of climate services that will deliver

benefits to society.

Definition of climate services

http://bookshop.europa.eu/en/a-european-research-and-innovation-roadmap-for-climate-services-pbKI0614177

Being relatively new, various definitions and interpre-

tations exist for the concept of climate services.

For the scope of this document, we attribute to the term

a broad meaning, which covers the transformation of

climate-related data — together with other relevant

information — into customised products such as pro-

jections, forecasts, information, trends, economic ana-

lysis, assessments (including technology assessment),

counselling on best practices, development and eva-

luation of solutions and any other service in relation to

climate that may be of use for the society at large.

As such, these services include data, information and

knowledge that support adaptation, mitigation and

disaster risk management (DRM).

from: EC Directorate-General for Research and Innovation (2015):

A European research and innovation Roadmap for Climate Services - Box 1.

On the European scale:

The Copernicus Climate Change service responds to

environmental and societal challenges associated with human-induced climate

changes.

The service will give access to information for monitoring and predicting climate

http://www.copernicus.eu/pages-

principales/services/climate-change/

Chirlesti mudflow (Buzau Carpathians)

Product:

mud flows connected to

long/ heavy precipitation

Electrical tower in eastern Thuringia

dpa_kreiszeitung.de 09.12.2010

Electrical tower close to Münster

Sueddeutsche.de 04.12.2005

where and how

often?

Product: ice loads

Sector: infrastructure, construction sector

From climate change to adaptation

Adaptation to climate change is based on

climate change information

knowledge of climate impact

knowledge of climate risk

knowledge of vulnerability

realisation of the need to adapt

development of adaptation measures

implementation of adaptation measures

and money

We need smart solutions:

• S pecific

• M easurable

• A ccurate

• R ealistic

• T imely

How should this work? What is needed?

European national climate service centres:

Various models

from: EC Directorate-General for Research and Innovation (2015):

A European research and innovation Roadmap for Climate Services - Box 3.

Type of climate services providers /

purveyors

Cultural background

Extension of meteorological services

Meteorology / hydrology

Public climate services centres (not from

meteorological services)

Multidisciplinary

Services offered by a university or a group of

universities

Multidisciplinary, academic

Private business development Multidisciplinary, business

Incorporation of climate information management

in business consulting services

Economic, business, marketing

Founded in 2009 by the German Federal Ministry of

Education and Research

Since June 2014 scientific organizational entity of

Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht

Financed by programme-oriented funding of Helmholtz

Association

Acting director is Dr. Daniela Jacob

Based in Hamburg’s Chilehaus (as before)

Interdisciplinary team of natural scientists and socio-

economists (approx. 40 staff members)

Climate Service Center 2.0

Chilehaus Hamburg

http://www.climate-service-center.de

The Climate Service Center 2.0 offers in a scientifically sound manner

products, advisory services and decision-relevant information

in order to support government, administration and business

in their efforts to adapt to climate change.

Climate Service Center 2.0

Practice-oriented processing of scientific knowledge on climate change

Validation by testing in practice:

How and where does the service work? Does it cover the need?

The Climate Service Center 2.0 is operating strictly source neutral,

based on all available scientific knowledge about climate and climate

change

© Climate Service Center 2.0

Climate Service Center 2.0

COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment

Orography of CORDEX model domains in [m]

(except for the Arctic and Antarctica)

• 12 domains with a

resolution of 0.44°x0.44°

(approx. 50x50km²)

• Focus on Africa (mandatory

domain)

• High resolution simulations

with 0.11°x0.11° (approx.

12x12km²) for Europe (by

some participating

institutions)

© Climate Service Center 2.0

Network: EURO - CORDEX

European branch of WCRP

CORDEX initiative

Coordination of GCM-RCM

simulation matrix

Joint evaluation and climate

projection analyses

User interfaces

26 modelling groups in Europe

Coordination:

Daniela Jacob - Climate Service Center 2.0

Eleni Katragkou - Aristotle University of Thessaloniki

Stefan Sobolowski - Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research

Networking in science

Climate

modelling

Regional

Impact

assessment

Adaptation

policy

Global

Local

Earth system

modellers

Statistical/

dynamic

downscaling

Impact

researchers

Adaptation

policy makers

Practitioners

Climate services

Account for a diverse group

of users.

Public Public and Private

Regional climate modelling linking with

Adopted from Guy Brasseur

Summing up:

There is a need for climate services

Refer climate knowledge to local scale

Develop interfaces from generic large databases to

individual applications

Information on robustness of climate data and associated

uncertainties

Expert judgement on climate related information

Support for regional and local adapation processes

General concepts for climate services