forex markets
TRANSCRIPT
International Finance© Mojmir Mrak
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UNIVERSITY OF LJUBLJANA FACULTY OF ECONOMICS
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International Finance© Mojmir Mrak
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UNIVERSITY OF LJUBLJANA FACULTY OF ECONOMICS
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1. Definition and Organization of the Foreign Exchange Markets
2. Foreign Exchange Market Functions
3. Foreign Exchange Market Participants
4. Size and Structure of Foreign Exchange Market Transactions
5. Types of Foreign Exchange Market Transactions
6. Quotations of Currencies on Foreign Exchange Markets
CONTENTS AND PURPOSE
purpose: enhance theoretical knowledge from the first two chapters with
practical issues of foreign exchange markets functioning principles for the analysis of the international business finance
problems
International Finance© Mojmir Mrak
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1. Definition and Organization of the Foreign Exchange Markets
foreign exchange markets are markets on which individuals, firms and banks buy and sell foreign currencies: foreign exchange trading occurs with the help of the
telecommunication net between buyers and sellers of foreign exchange that are located all over the world
can actually talk about a single international foreign exchange market for every single currency
foreign exchange trading takes place at least in some of the world financial centers in every moment
interbank-markets client markets
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Clearing of currencies: service of exchanging one currency for another
Provision of Credit: trader that bought a certain good from the manufacturer, needs
time to sell this good to the final customer and to pay the manufacturer with the money he received from the customer
2. Foreign Exchange Market FunctionsClearing of Currencies and Provision of Credit
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Foreign Exchange Market and Insurance AgainstForeign Exchange Risk
hedging: activities with which the foreign exchange market participants
avoid exchange rate risk or activities with which they are closing their open foreign exchange position
closed foreign exchange position: size of the assets in a certain currency is equal to the size of the
liabilities in the same currency full insurance against exchange rate risk with respect to this currency
open foreign exchange position: long: net assets in a certain currency short: net liabilities in a certain currency
in the spot or forward foreign exchange market standardized forward contracts and options
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Foreign Exchange Markets and Conscious Foreign Exchange Risk Acceptance
activities in which economic agents consciously open their foreign exchange positions – long or short – hoping to get profits
in all foreign exchange market segments
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3. Foreign Exchange Market Participants Economic Agents and Types of Activities on
Foreign Exchange Markets Client buys $
with €
Local bank
Main banks’ interbank market
Local bank
Client buys € with $
Purchases and sales of big multinational
companies
Brokers
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Economic Agents and Types of Activities on Foreign Exchange Markets
bank clients (individuals, firms, non-banking financial institutions): all those groups of legal and physical persons that need foreign
currency in doing their commercial or investment business
commercial banks: the most important group of foreign exchange market participants they buy and sell foreign currencies for their clients and trade for
themselves
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Economic Agents and Types of Activities on Foreign Exchange Markets
brokers: agents that connects dealers interested in buying and selling
foreign exchange, but does not become an active client in the transaction
they provide their client, the bank, with the information about the exchange rates at which banks are willing to buy or sell a particular currency
central banks: foreign exchange market interventions are meant to influence the
exchange rate of the domestic currency in a way that is beneficial for the domestic economy and, consequently, for the country
it does not necessarily have a profit, it can also have a loss
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Economic Agents and Motivation for the Foreign Exchange Market Participation
arbitragers: they want to earn a profit without taking any kind of risk (usually
commercial banks): try to profit from simultaneous exchange rate differences in different
markets making use of the interest rate differences that exist in national
financial markets of two countries along with transactions on spot and forward foreign exchange market at the same time (covered interest parity)
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Economic Agents and Motivation for the Foreign Exchange Market Participation
hedgers and speculators: hedgers do not want to take risk while participating in the market, they
want to insure themselves against the exchange rate changes speculators think they know what the future exchange rate of a particular
currency will be, and they are willing to accept exchange rate risk with the goal of making profit
every foreign exchange market participant can behave either as a hedger or as a speculator in the context of a particular transaction
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4. Size and Structure of Foreign Exchange Market Transactions
Table 4.1: Size and Structure of Transactions in the Foreign Exchange Markets , 1989 – 1998 (mia $)
1989 1992 1995 1998 Traditional foreign exchange transactions
590 820 1190 1490
Spot market transactions 350 400 520 590
Forward market transactions
240 420 670 900
Untraditional foreign exchange transactions
- - 45 97
Source: Roberts, 1999, p. 33.
the biggest share of all financial markets in the worldCurrency Percentage
$ 87 DEM 30 ¥ 21 £ 11 FRF 5 CHF 7 Other 39 All currencies 200,00
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5. Types of Foreign Exchange Market Transactions Spot Foreign Exchange Transactions
almost immediate delivery of foreign exchange
buyer and seller establish the exchange rate at the time of the agreement, payment and delivery are not required until maturity
forward exchange rates: 1, 3, 6, 9 months, one year
Outright Forward Transactions
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Swap Transactions
simultaneous purchase and sale of a given amount of foreign exchange for two different value dates: “spot against forward” swaps:
dc
ba *
a – annual swap rate (%),b – premium/discount during the time of the currency swap, c – spot exchange rate, and d - 1/part of the year, for which the currency swap is agreed upon (if the contract is valid for a three-month period, then this is one quarter of a year)
“forward-forward” swaps
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Futures
basic characteristics of futures: the amount of the currency that is being traded type of currency quotation contract expiration last day of trading with the contract settlement day margin requirements
information about futures trading futures usage:
arbitrage between outright forward contract and futures rarely used as an insurance instrument (rigidity!)
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similarities and differences between outright forward contract and futures: both need to be executed unconditionally they are usually established for at most one year
Characteristic Futures Outright Forward Contract Size of the contracts standardized for a given currency depends on the individual needs of the
client Location and trade activity
at the stock exchange or at a given location; actively traded in an organized market
with the provision of agents, connected among each other with the help of telecommunications; not traded in an organized market
Duration of the contract
standardized, but at most a year depends on the individual needs of the client , but not more than a year
Contract has to be executed
yes yes
Insurance and Security of doing Business with the Instrument
insurance explicitly required (margin requirements); high security of doing business with the instrument
insurance not required explicitly (implicit insurance are affiliat ions of two partners up till now); lower security than futures
Trade regulation regulated with the stock exchange rules
regulation not explicit ly determined
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Characteristic Futures Outright Forward Contract Contract partners not in direct contact in direct contact Price determination based on supply and demand based on quotations Determination of the dayof the settlement
standardized depends on the individual needs of the client
Accesibility of the contract for non-bank agents
accessible to anyone in practice accessible to big clients with good ratings
Liquidity of the instrument and the contract amounts
high liquidity; small contract amounts and small size of t ransactions
low liquidity; high contract amounts and large size of transactions compared to the size of futures
Costs of the instrument
based on costs that the broker zaračuna for the purchase of the instrument and its sale later on
higher than for futures; based on the difference in offer and bid price of the currency that the bank offers the client
Currency quotation number of units of $ for one unit of a foreign currency (American quotation)
number of domestic currency units for one unit of a foreign currency (European quotation)
Riskiness of the instrument
very limited; stock exchange enters the contract, explicitly required insurance
higher than for futures; for this reason, business is done only with credible partners
Profit yield/loss payment
daily once; at contract execution or when the contract expires
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Options
basic characteristics of options: financial instrument that gives the buyer the right, but not the
obligation, to buy or sell a standardized amount of a foreign currency, that is traded, at a fixed price at a particular time, or until a particular time in the future
call option and put option American and European options three different prices:
exercise/strike price cost, price or value of the option underlying or actual spot exchange rate
“at-the-money”“in-the-money”“out-of-money”
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Options
types of options trading: in organized markets:
standardized contracts with given strike prices, standardized durations (1, 3, 6, 9, 12 months) and expirations
only certain currencies, contract amounts are standardized
over-the-counter trading: expiration date, strike price and contract amount depend on the
individual needs of the client counterparty risk! retail and interbank market
information about options trading
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Usage of options: when the economic agent expects that the exchange rate trend of a
particular currency could change drastically when the economic agent does not know for sure that a certain
foreign exchange flow will occur in the future advantages:
fixed option costs options do not need to be executed
Options
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Profit/ loss
Limited loss
Unlimited profit
A. Buyer of a call option
Profit/ loss
Limited loss
Unlimited profit
C. Buyer of a put option
Profit/ loss
Limited profit
Unlimited loss
B. Seller of a call option
Profit/ loss
Unlimited loss
Limited profit
D. Seller of a put option
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6. Quotations of Currencies on ForeignExchange Markets
quotation of a currency tells us at what price is a financial mediator willing to buy or sell a certain currency
Currency Quotations in Spot Foreign Exchange Markets
European and American quotationdirect and indirect quotation (which currency is regarded
as a domestic/basis currency)
100*0
0
s
sss t 100*0
t
t
s
sss
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Currency Quotations in Spot ForeignExchange Markets
American quotation European quotation
Definition:
number of units of $ needed to buy a unit of a foreign currency
Definition:
number of units of a foreign currency needed to buy $1
Direct quotation in the USA:
number of units of a domestic currency ($) needed to buy a unit of foreign currency
Direct quotation outside the USA:
number of units of a domestic currency needed to buy a unit of a foreign currency ($)
Indirect quotation outside the USA:
number of units of a foreign currency ($) needed to buy a unit of a domestic currency
Indirect quotation in the USA :
number of units of a foreign currency needed to buy a unit of a domestic currency ($)
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Currency Quotations in Spot ForeignExchange Markets
bid price and offer/sell price quotation: bid price is the exchange rate at which a bank is willing to buy
another currency offer/sell price is the exchange rate at which the same bank is
willing to sell the currency in question
transaction costs: banks usually do not charge provision difference between the bid and offer/sell price represents the
bank’s profit and is called a margin or spread
price offer/sell
price bid -price offer/sellmargin
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Currency Quotations in Spot ForeignExchange Markets
cross exchange rate: can be calculated with the help of the relationship of two
currencies with a third currency
triangular currency arbitrage: it enables profit earning because of inconsistency between
currency quotations in different financial centers buying a particular currency in one financial center and selling it
in another financial center
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Currency Quotations in Forward Foreign Exchange Markets
outright quotation točkovna quotation, forward premium/discount:
forward discount: when a currency is worth less (is cheaper relative to another currency) in the
forward foreign exchange market than in the spot foreign exchange market
forward premium: when a currency is worth more (is more expensive relative to another
currency) in the forward foreign exchange rate market than in the spot foreign exchange market
annual forward premium and discount
100*360
*ns
sffUSD
100*
360*nf
fsfUSD
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Financial TimesWall Street Journal
Publishing the Currency Quotations in the Leading World Financial Newspapers