foresight 2020 - industry trends and scenarios
TRANSCRIPT
Foresight 2020 –industry trends and scenarios
© Tieto Corporation
Financial Services trends
2
Digital payment systems
New entrants
Consolidation and Partnerships
Scalable consumerization
Predictive mass-customized
services
Big banks win
Regulation
Digital Banking considered safe
Optimization through IT
Protectionism
Scenarios
Opportunities for Tieto
Digital payments
Cyber security
4
5
• Driven by customer data and analytics.
• Large number of actors.
• Few players, incumbents remain in control.
• Product and service developments handled largely in-house.
Digital payments
Scalableconsumerization
Digital payments
Scalable consumerization
Brings together financial services, telecom operators, retailers and device manu-facturers and will likely be standardised.
Financial services actors are expecting to increase spending on cyber security to reach $ 33 billion by 2020.
Joining forces
• Customer-centric models through alliances with emerging actors and technologies.
Digital payments
Propensity to partner
Segmented trends and factors of influenceProtectionism MeFree trade agreements
Cyber security
Higher frequency of financial crisis
Climate change
Finite natural resources
Generation Y
Rise of the middle c lass
The sharing economy
Increasing threat of terrorism
Digitalization
Cloud
Connectiv ity
Big data and analytics
RegMe RegMe SecMe EcoMe EnvMe EnvMe SocMe SocMe SocMe SecMe TecMe TecMe TecMe Tec
Macroeconomic uncertainty MaCross-industry convergence
Optimization through IT
Stricter regulation
Consumer privacy ris ing
Demand for sustainable products
Eurozone instability
Strong power of consumers
Lifesty le adapted services
Continued adaptation of e-channels and e-servicesStandardization of banking regulations
Consolidation
Factory model transformation
New, agile supply chains
Biometric authentication
E-invoic ing
EcoMa EcoMa Eco
Ma RegMa SocMa EnvMa
Env
Ma EcoMa SocMa SocMa Tec
RegEco
Mi EcoMi TecMi TecMi Env
Reduced paper usage
1
Semantic web Me TecAging population Me SocGloablization Me Soc
Digital banking considered safe
New (digital) payment systems
Mi TecMi Tec
MiMi
Consumerization
Fight for talent
Mi SocMi Soc
Stronger relationship with IT
Increasing number of actors
Mi TecMi Reg
Env
All trends and were segmented and ranked according to level. Macro and micro trends were looked at more closely as they impact the specific industry. (step 1)
Through influence analysis key drivers and key areas of change were identified. (step 2 and 3)
The drivers were combined in different constellations to create different scenarios with different impact on key areas of change. The scenarios with most likelihood, most impact on industry and most impact on IT by 2020, were selected for scenario development. (step 4)
Note: Please see the Methodology section, delivered separately, for scoring and calculations of trends and scenarios and further methodological explanations.
Key opportunities for Tieto were identified within scenarios and trends and highlighted in the report. (step 5)
MeMaMi
Mega level: Global, long term, affects how the world looksMacro level: Medium term, affects one or many industriesMicro level: Shorter term, changes industry dynamics
Reg
Eco
Sec
Regulatory
Economic
Risk, Security
Env
Soc
Tec
Environmental
Societal
Technological
LEGEND: DriversFactors and trends that have high influence and low dependence towards other trends..
Areas of change
Trends that have high impact but lower influence score and higher dependence score.
Key areas of change 2015-2020
Key industry drivers 2015-20202
3
© Tieto Corporation
Manufacturing trends
3
Complete automation
B2B E-commerce
Key areas of change 2015-2020
Key industry drivers 2015-2020
M2M / Industrial Internet
3D Printing
Industry 4.0
On-demand mass-
customizationOn-demand economy
Sustainable production
Optimization
Competition from East
Scenarios
Opportunities for Tieto
Factory of the Future:
Digital Supply Networks:
On-Demand Manufacturing:
Segmented trends and factors of influenceEmerging economies MeMulti-country manufacturing
Cyber security
Rising focus on risk Management
Climate change
Finite natural resources
Generation Y
Rise of the middle c lass
The sharing economy
Socio-demographic change
Digitalization
Cloud
Connectiv ity
Big data
EcoMe EcoMe SecMe SecMe EnvMe EnvMe SocMe SocMe SocMe SocMe TecMe TecMe TecMe Tec
Health & Safety MaCompetition from East
Optimization
Servitization
Cluster manufacturing
Safety of connected production
Sustainable production
On-demand economy
Consumerization
Complete automation
RFID technology
3D Printing
Nano-manufacturing
M2M / Industrial internet
Growing number of distributors
Increasing use of sub-contractors
Next-shoring
B2B E-commerce
RegMa EcoMa EcoMa EcoMa EcoMa SecMa EnvMa EnvMa SocMa SocMa TecMa TecMa TecMa TecMa TecMi EcoMi EcoMi SocMi Tec
Emission regulation
12
3
4
5
MeMaMi
Mega level: Global, long term, affects how the world looks
Macro level: Medium term, affects one or many industries
Micro level: Shorter term, changes industry dynamics
Reg
Eco
Sec
Regulatory
Economic
Risk, Security
Env
Soc
Tec
Environmental
Societal
Technological
LEGEND: DriversFactors and trends that have high influence and low dependence towards other trends..
Areas of change
Trends that have high impact but lower influence score and higher dependence score.
• Driven by increasing global competition and efficiency.
• Emphasis on M2M technology and automation.
• Driven by On-demand and sustainable production.
• Breakthrough of 3D printing also on industrial scale.
Complete automation
M2M/ Industrial intternet
B2B E-commerce
3D Printing
Brings together automation, industrial internet, robotics, analytics and 3D printing.
Holistic approach to supply chain with seamless information flow between actors across the value chain.
A power shift in the value chain where either manufacturers, retailers or new actors may emerge as winners
All trends and were segmented and ranked according to level. Macro and micro trends were looked at more closely as they impact the specific industry. (step 1)
Through influence analysis key drivers and key areas of change were identified. (step 2 and 3)
The drivers were combined in different constellations to create different scenarios with different impact on key areas of change. The scenarios with most likelihood, most impact on industry and most impact on IT by 2020, were selected for scenario development. (step 4)
Key opportunities for Tieto were identified within scenarios and trends and highlighted in the report. (step 5)
Please note that these trends and scenarios apply mainly to discrete industrial manufacturing,
Note: Please see the Methodology section, delivered separately, for scoring and calculations of trends and scenarios and further methodological explanations.
© Tieto Corporation
Forest trends
4
Servitization of manufacturing (e.g. consulting on material application)
Partnering
Key areas of change 2015-2020
Key industry drivers 2015-2020
Interfaces
Value-added bio products
Cutting costs & partnering
Diversified solutions
Structural changes in demand
Increasing consumer influence and power
Subsidies and funding
Scenarios
Opportunities for Tieto
N/A
Segmented trends and factors of influenceEmerging economies MeDeforestation
Aging population
Integration of European market
Climate change
Scarce natural resources
Generation Y
Higher standards of liv ing
Globalisation
Digitalization
Cloud
Big data, analytics
EcoMe EnvMe SocMe SecMe EnvMe EnvMe SocMe SocMe EcoMe TecMe TecMe Tec
Land use, incl wood supply MaIncreasing consumer power
Sustainability
Restructuring, incl. Moving production out of EuropeIncreasing employer attractiveness
Environmental reputation
Bio-economy, incl. Value-added forest products
Automation
Just-in-time (JIT) logistics
Higher supplier dependence
Nano-technology
Structural changes in demand
Traceability
Cost-cutting to drive competitivenessIncreasingly complex supply chains
Consumer-centric approach
Partnering
Governmental and NGO involvement
EnvMa SocMa SocMa EcoMa SocMa SocMa EcoMa TecMa TecMa TecMa SecMa Tec
EcoSocEco
Mi EcoMi SocMi EcoMi Reg
Geographic information systems (GIS)
12
3
4
5
MeMaMi
Mega level: Global, long term, affects how the world looksMacro level: Medium term, affects one or many industriesMicro level: Shorter term, changes industry dynamics
Reg
Eco
Sec
Regulatory
Economic
Risk, Security
Env
Soc
Tec
Environmental
Societal
Technological
LEGEND: DriversFactors and trends that have high influence and low dependence towards other trends..
Areas of change
Trends that have high impact but lower influence score and higher dependence score.
• Cost-cutting drives competitiveness.
• Increased reliance on contractors.
• Servitization leads to new value chains.
• Transition towards bio-economy means higher margin offerings.
No key area of opportunity where the money will be invested, was discovered within the Forest industry.
All trends and were segmented and ranked according to level. Macro and micro trends were looked at more closely as they impact the specific industry. (step 1)
Through influence analysis key drivers and key areas of change were identified. (step 2 and 3)
The drivers were combined in different constellations to create different scenarios with different impact on key areas of change. The scenarios with most likelihood, most impact on industry and most impact on IT by 2020, were selected for scenario development. (step 4)
Key opportunities for Tieto were identified within scenarios and trends and highlighted in the report. (step 5)
Partnering
Interfaces
Value-added bio products
Servitization
Supplier and customer interfaces Mi Tec
Mobility
M2M
Corporate accountability
Environmental risks
Use of renewable energy
Robotics
Me TecMe TecMe SocMe Sec
Ma RegMa Tec
Government subsides and funding
Servitization of manufacturing
Ma RegMa Eco
MiMiMi
Areas of growth:Forest companies expect, however, to invest further in customer and supplier interfaces, new and ’smart’ machinery with expanded GIS and automation to cut costs further.
Note: Please see the Methodology section, delivered separately, for scoring and calculations of trends and scenarios and further methodological explanations.
© Tieto Corporation
Retail & Wholesale trends
Shortage of digital skills
Resurgence of B2B e-commerce
Evolving role of the store
Blurred distinction between retail, wholesale and manufacturing
Rivalry for personalized
offerings
Insight-based customer
experience Growing importance of customer experience
Knowledge management
New entrants from other industries
Mass-customization
Scenarios
Opportunities for Tieto
Real-time retail:
Digital payments:
4
5
• New non-traditional players compete in the retail market.
• Mass, rather than niche customization.
• Industry is driven by customer experience.
• Retailing is an information-based industry.
Blurred distinction between retail, wholesale and manufacturing
Resurgence of B2B e-commerce
Enables retailers to address the new ways of shopping and the seamless in-store - digital experience by data collected and analyzed.
Brings together financial services, telecom operators, retailers and device manufacturers and will lead to new opportunities for retailers.
Segmented trends and factors of influenceEuropean single market MeCyber security
Globalisation
Emerging markets
Economic conditions
Climate change
Sustainability
Scarce resources
Generation Y
Aging population
Rise of middle c lass
Sharing economy
Consumer power
Big data and analytics
RegMe SecMe EcoMe EcoMe EcoMe EnvMe EnvMe EnvMe SocMe SocMe SocMe SocMe SocMe Tec
Regulation of cross-border e-commerce MaInformation security, data privacyBlurred distinction between retail, wholesale and manufacturing
Wearable technology
RFID
Resurgence of B2B e-commerce
Leasing and sharing business modelsGrowing importance of customer experience
Consumer trust
Transparency and traceability
Click and collect
Price sensitiv ity
Private labels
Dropshipping
Evolv ing role of the store
Omni-channel approach
RegMa SecMa Eco
Ma TecMa TecMa EnvMa
Tec
Ma Env
Ma SocMi RegMi Reg
EcoEco
Mi EcoMi EcoMi EcoMi Eco
Corporate social responsibility
1
Cloud Me TecConnectiv ity Me TecDigitalization Me Tec
Conscious consumers
C2C retail solution
Mi EnvMi Env
MiMi
Mass-customization
Shortage of digital skills
Mi SocMi Soc
New payment systems
Entrants from other industries
Mi TecMi Tec
Env
All
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Mac
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icro
tre
nds
wer
e lo
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at
mor
e cl
osel
y as
the
y im
pact
the
spe
cific
ind
ustr
y. (
step
1)
Through influence analysis key drivers and key areas of change were identified. (step 2 and 3)
The drivers were combined in different constellations to create different scenarios with different impact on key areas of change. The scenarios with most likelihood, most impact on industry and most impact on IT by 2020, were selected for scenario development. (step 4)
Key opportunities for Tieto were identified within scenarios and trends and highlighted in the report. (step 5)
MeMaMi
Mega level: Global, long term, affects how the world looksMacro level: Medium term, affects one or many industries Micro level: Shorter term, changes industry dynamics
Reg
Eco
Sec
Regulatory
Economic
Risk, Security
Env
Soc
Tec
Environmental
Societal
Technological
LEGEND: DriversFactors and trends that have high influence and low dependence towards other trends..
Areas of change
Trends that have high impact but lower influence score and higher dependence score.
Key areas of change 2015-2020
Key industry drivers 2015-20202
3
Subscription-based business model Ma Eco
Social media as an e-commerce channel Mi Tec
Knowledge management Ma Tec Social networks in marketing Mi Tec3D printing Ma Tec Digital offerings Mi TecAugmented reality Ma Tec Stronger relationship with IT Mi TecBio-sensory technology Ma Tec
Shortage of digital skills
Evolv ing role of the store
On-demand manufacturing: A power shift in the value chain where either manufacturers, retailers or new actors may emerge as winners
5
Note: Please see the Methodology section, delivered separately, for scoring and calculations of trends and scenarios and further methodological explanations.
© Tieto Corporation
Logistics trends
B2C E-commerce
Omni-channel logistics
Logistics marketplace
Digital supply networks
Next generation retail
Adaptation to On-demand economy
Consolidation and commoditization
Full implementation of M2M / Industrial internet
Scenarios
Opportunities for Tieto
Autonomous logistics:
Digital supply networks:
4
5Transfer and delivery of goods and products to final destination with minimal human intervention.
Holistic approach to supply chain with seamless information flow between across the value chain.
All
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segm
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d an
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nked
acc
ordi
ng
to le
vel.
Mac
ro a
nd m
icro
tr
ends
wer
e lo
oked
at
mor
e cl
osel
y as
the
y im
pact
the
spe
cific
ind
ustr
y. (
step
1)
Through influence analysis key drivers and key areas of change were identified. (step 2 and 3)
The drivers were combined in different constellations to create different scenarios with different impact on key areas of change. The scenarios with most likelihood, most impact on industry and most impact on IT by 2020, were selected for scenario development. (step 4)
Key opportunities for Tieto were identified within scenarios and trends and highlighted in the report. (step 5)
MeMaMi
Mega level: Global, long term, affects how the world looksMacro level: Medium term, affects one or many industries Micro level: Shorter term, changes industry dynamics
Reg
Eco
Sec
Regulatory
Economic
Risk, Security
Env
Soc
Tec
Environmental
Societal
Technological
LEGEND: DriversFactors and trends that have high influence and low dependence towards other trends..
Areas of change
Trends that have high impact but lower influence score and higher dependence score.
Key areas of change 2015-2020
Key industry drivers 2015-20202
3
On-demand manufacturing:A power shift in the value chain where manufacturers, retailers or logistics companies may emerge as winners.
Commodity logistics
Consumer-centric logistics
• Commoditization and consolidation of the industry drives cost-optimization.
• Investments in autonomous systems.
• Consumer-driven scenario where logistics companies focus on adapting their services to ’new’ retail market and consumers directly.
Logistics marketplace
Un-mannedvehic les
B2C E-commerce
Omni channel logistics
Delivery disrupted
• Shift in demand of logistics services as crowd-solutions and 3D printing reduces the need for traditional logistics services.
B2C E-commerce
Supply networks
Shareconomy & Crowd logistics
3D printing
Un-manned vehicles
Segmented trends and factors of influenceGlobalization Me Eco Augmented reality Ma Tec
1
Free trade Me Eco M2M / Industrial internet Ma TecClimate change Me Env Multi-sourcing IT Ma TecSustainability Me Env Traceability Ma TecUrbanization Me Soc Un-manned Vehicles (UAVs and UGVs) Ma TecGeneration Y Me Soc Autonomous fleets Ma TecAging population Me Soc
C2C retail Mi Soc
Sharing economy Me Soc
Omni-channel logistics Mi Eco
Rising consumer power Me Soc
B2C E-commerce Ma Eco
Cyber security Me Sec
Urban logistics Mi Eco
Big data and analytics Me Tec
Logistics marketplace Mi Eco
Cloud Me Tec
Click and collect Mi Eco
Internet of Things Me Tec
Dropshipping Mi Eco
Digitalization Me Tec
Cluster manufacturing Mi Eco
Connectivity and mobility Me Tec
Manufacturers do more (e.g. packaging) Mi EcoReal time services Eco
Value chain dominance Mi EcoNext generation retail Eco
Digital supply networks Mi EcoNear-shoring Eco
Convenience logistics Mi SocAgile supply chains Eco
Logistics as a Service (Laas) Mi TecConsolidation Eco
Anticipatory logistics Mi TecIncreasingly complex supply chains Eco
On-demand SCM Mi TecEco-friendly transportation Env
B2C package content information Mi SecEconomic and geopolitical uncertainty Sec
Crowd sourced logistics Mi SocCommoditization Soc
Shareconomy logistics Mi SocOn-demand economy Soc
Supergrid logistics Mi Tec3D printing Tec
Opening up interfaces Mi TecRobotics and automation Tec
Localization and local intelligence Mi TecWearable technology Tec
MaMaMaMaMaMaMaMaMaMaMaMaMa
Increasing security measures Ma SecEmission regulations Ma Env
EU as a single market Reg
Shortage of talent Ma Soc
Modal shift towards ocean and rail Eco
Me
Ma
6
Note: Please see the Methodology section, delivered separately, for scoring and calculations of trends and scenarios and further methodological explanations.
© Tieto Corporation
Telecommunication trends
Entry to new industries
Value added services
Customer Experience
Value chain integration
Lack of organizational agility
Disruptive competition (OTT)
Increase in data traffic
Regulatory pressures
Scenarios
Opportunities for Tieto
Smart traffic:
Digital payments:
4
5
The combination of sensors, connectivity, cameras enables both drivers and traffic management to make use of real-time traffic information.
Brings together telecom operators, financial services, retailers and device manufacturers
All trends and were segmented and ranked according to level. Macro and micro trends were looked at more closely as they impact the specific industry. (step 1) Through influence analysis key
drivers and key areas of change were identified. (step 2 and 3)
The drivers were combined in different constellations to create different scenarios with different impact on key areas of change. The scenarios with most likelihood, most impact on industry and most impact on IT by 2020, were selected for scenario development. (step 4)
Key opportunities for Tieto were identified within scenarios and trends and highlighted in the report. (step 5)
MeMaMi
Mega level: Global, long term, affects how the world looksMacro level: Medium term, affects one or many industries Micro level: Shorter term, changes industry dynamics
Reg
Eco
Sec
Regulatory
Economic
Risk, Security
Env
Soc
Tec
Environmental
Societal
Technological
LEGEND: DriversFactors and trends that have high influence and low dependence towards other trends..
Areas of change
Trends that have high impact but lower influence score and higher dependence score.
Key areas of change 2015-2020
Key industry drivers 2015-20202
3
Digital identification: A trusted digital domain for identification, relying on network connectivity.
7
Note: Please see the Methodology section for scoring and calculations of trends and scenarios and further methodological explanations.
Customer centric content
& services
Telecoms as business
enablers
• Increase in demand for content and services over the network.
• Customer Experience through personalization.
• Telecoms unable to adapt to challenge new competition.
• M&A and partnerships to secure market shares.
Customer Experience
Value added services
Value chain integration
Customer Experience
Securing positions in
new industries
• Regulatory pressures, increasing competition and lower margins incentivizes telecom actors to pursue growth in new industries.
Entry to new industries
Value added services
Telco enabled ecosystemsMonetization of the customer data, facilitated by advanced analytics and offered through open APIs to enable other industries.
Segmented trends and factors of influenceBig data, analytics MeCloud computing
Connectiv ity
Cyber Security
Digital ecosystems
Digitalization
Emerging markets
Generation Y
Globalization
Increased threat of terrorism
IoT (Internet of Things)
Net neutrality
Customer Experience
Digital identity services
Tec
Me Tec
Me Tec
Me Sec
Me Eco
Me Tec
Me Eco
Me Soc
Me Eco
Me Sec
Me Tec
Me Reg
Ma Soc
Ma Sec
1
Digital payments Ma TecFrequency of network replacements Ma TecGreen Internet Ma EnvIncrease in data traffic MaInformation security and data privacy
M2M / Industrial Internet
Network security
Regulatory pressures
Smart buildings / homes
Talent acquis ition (new expertise)
The rise of social media
Value added services (content/IT)
Wearable technologies
Abolishment of roaming charges
Entry to new industries
Digital trust
Disruptive competition (OTT)
Soc
Ma Sec
Ma Tec
Ma Sec
Ma Reg
Ma Tec
Ma Eco
Ma Soc
Ma Eco
Ma Tec
Mi Reg
Mi Eco
Mi Soc
Mi EcoLack of organizational agility Mi Eco
Reduced margins from traditional services Mi EcoSDN & NFV Mi TecValue chain integration Mi Eco
E-Sim Mi Tec
Mobile Virtual Network Operator Mi Tec
© Tieto Corporation
DIY media creation and distribution
Consolidation
Rise of On-demand
Personalization &Customer Experience
Shared data ecosystems
Growth of OTT Content and Actors
8
Automated production, distribution, marketing
Self-service re-bundling
Increase in visual / video communication
New payment, monetization models
Collaborative Customer
Experience Enhancement
DIY media On demand
Scenarios
Opportunities for Tieto
Virtual Reality:
E-learning:
4
5
• Driven by the industry actors• Shared data ecosystems
increases knowledge of customers and is used for personalization
• Driven by the consumers• Rise of On-demand services and
consumers media producers and distributors.
Automated production, distribution, marketing
New payment, monetization models
New payment, monetization models
Self-service re-bundling
Virtual reality brings together media, education, retail, healthcare and manufacturing under one area of technology.
Learning, both academically but also in working life, is expected fast growth through the use of mobile connectivity and greater offering.
Decline of traditional
media actors
• Driven by consolidation of traditional actors in the industry, and the entrance of new players. Traditional industry borders are blurred.
Automated production, distribution, marketing
New payment, monetization models
All
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acc
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to le
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Mac
ro a
nd m
icro
tr
ends
wer
e lo
oked
at
mor
e cl
osel
y as
the
y im
pact
the
spe
cific
ind
ustr
y. (
step
1)
Through influence analysis key drivers and key areas of change were identified. (step 2 and 3)
The drivers were combined in different constellations to create different scenarios with different impact on key areas of change. The scenarios with most likelihood, most impact on industry and most impact on IT by 2020, were selected for scenario development. (step 4)
Key opportunities for Tieto were identified within scenarios and trends and highlighted in the report. (step 5)
MeMaMi
Mega level: Global, long term, affects how the world looksMacro level: Medium term, affects one or many industriesMicro level: Shorter term, changes industry dynamics
Reg
Eco
Sec
Regulatory
Economic
Risk, Security
Env
Soc
Tec
Environmental
Societal
Technological
LEGEND: DriversFactors and trends that have high influence and low dependence towards other trends..
Areas of change
Trends that have high impact but lower influence score and higher dependence score.
Key areas of change 2015-20203
Note: Please see the Methodology section for scoring and calculations of trends and scenarios and further methodological explanations.
Segmented trends and factors of influence1
Growth of messaging / w added features SocMi
Increase in video / visual communication SocMi
Increased usage of suggestions vs. Searches TecMa
Declining ad revenues (digital and ad-blocking) SocMi
Increasing value of personal data SocMa
Internet piracy TecMe
IoT (Internet of Things) TecMe
Media aggregation EcoMiMedia houses moving into new markets EcoMi
Mobile majority SocMa
Net neutrality, Internet governance PolMe
New payment, monetization models TecMi
OTT content and actors EcoMaPersonalization and customer experience EcoMa
Real time content and services TecMi
Reduced paper usage EnvMa
Rise of on-demand SocMa
Rising cost of quality content EcoMa
Self service re-bundling EcoMi
Servitization EcoMa
Applied data science for product development TecMa
Augmented and virtual reality TecMaAutomated, production and marketing TecMa
Big data, analytics TecMe
Cloud computing TecMe
Connectiv ity TecMe
Consolidation EcoMa
Cyber security TecMe
Data traffic crunch TecMa
Declining linear televis ion TecMi
Digital trust SecMa
Digitalization TecMe
DIY media creation and distribution SocMa
Education 2.0 SocMa
Expanded interfaces (TV) TecMa
From commercials to Integrated Points of Sale EcoMi
Generation Y SocMe
Globalization EcoMe
Governance 2.0 RegMaGrowing importance of social media as a channel SocMa
Growth of communities SocMa
Shared data ecosystems SocMa
Sharing economy SocMe
Social media monetization models EcoMa
Wearable technologies TecMa
Key industry drivers 2015-20202
Media trends
© Tieto Corporation
Energy & Utilities trends
9
Brokerage for personalized experience
Industry convergence
through domotics
Distributed / Micro generation
Regulation and subsidies
Smart grids
Changing customer demand (control)
Scenarios
Opportunities for Tieto
Distributed generation:
Smart grids:
4
5
• Focus on personalized services enabled by customer data. Through the value of the data, utilities claim customer ownership.
• Distributed generation, new industry entrants and enabling regulation and subsidies centers the industry around home automation.
Personalization & Servitization
Energy data hubs
Domotics / Home automation
Convergence of industries
Distributed generation market size is estimated to be worth USD 180 billion by 2020 and its share of capacity of additions will be 42%.
Global smart grid market size is estimated at USD 120 billion by 2020 with a CAGR of 18% through 2015 – 2020.
Industry disruption postponed
• Easing cost pressure on the industry actors, in combination with slow deployment of smart grids, postpones industry changes.
Convergence of industries
Energy data hubs
Segmented trends and factors of influenceAutomation MeBig data, analytics
Connectiv ity
Digitalization
Finite natural resources
Globalization
Increased threat of terrorism
IoT (Internet of Things)
Sustainability
Urbanization
Automatic reading, monitoring and control
Convergence of industries
Customer centric ity
Cyber security
TecMe TecMe TecMe TecMe EnvMe EcoMe SecMe TexMe SocMe SocMa TecMa EcoMa EcoMa Sec
Environmental reputation Ma
Geopolitical tensions
M2M / Industrial Internet
Personalization & Servitization
Renewable energy
Rise of unconventional energy sources
Smart c ities
Smart grids
Changing customer demand (control)
Cost pressures
Distributed / Micro generation
Domotics / Home automation
Energy data hubs
Grid scale storage
Soc
Ma SecMa TecMa EnvMa
Soc
Ma TecMa EcoMa SocMa Tec
SocEco
Mi TecMi TecMi TecMi Tec
Regulation and subsidies
1
Electric vehic les Ma TecEmissions and air pollution Ma SocEnergy effic iency Ma Eco
New business models (brokerage)
New entrants
Mi EcoMi Eco
MiMi
New pric ing models
Supplier centric model
Mi EcoMi Soc
Transactive energy Mi Eco
Reg
All trends and were segmented and ranked according to level. Macro and micro trends were looked at more closely as they impact the specific industry. (step 1)
Through influence analysis key drivers and key areas of change were identified. (step 2 and 3)
The drivers were combined in different constellations to create different scenarios with different impact on key areas of change. The scenarios with most likelihood, most impact on industry and most impact on IT by 2020, were selected for scenario development. (step 4)
Key opportunities for Tieto were identified within scenarios and trends and highlighted in the report. (step 5)
MeMaMi
Mega level: Global, long term, affects how the world looksMacro level: Medium term, affects one or many industriesMicro level: Shorter term, changes industry dynamics
Reg
Eco
Sec
Regulatory
Economic
Risk, Security
Env
Soc
Tec
Environmental
Societal
Technological
LEGEND: DriversFactors and trends that have high influence and low dependence towards other trends..
Areas of change
Trends that have high impact but lower influence score and higher dependence score.
Key areas of change 2015-2020
Key industry drivers 2015-20202
3
Note: Please see the Methodology section for scoring and calculations of trends and scenarios and further methodological explanations.
Convergence of industries
Energy data hubs
Domotics / Home automation
New business models (brokerage)Personalization & Servitization
Cost pressures
New businessmodels
© Tieto Corporation
Healthcare & Welfare trends
10
Wearable technology
Home care services
Personalized co-solution approach
Prevention & early detection
Remote health management
Pre-emptive personalized
healthcareInformed patient-customers
Cost pressures
Internet of Everything
Aging population
Scenarios
Opportunities for Tieto
Digital health management
Smart health monitoring homes
4
5
• Driven by cost pressure and preference for home care.
• Interconnectivity of people and devices an imperative.
• Driven by aware, informed and demanding patients-customers.
• Reciprocal relationships between patient-customers and professionals.
Wearable technology
Home care services
Personalized co-solution approach
Prevention & early detection
Brings together technology such as wearables and bio-sensing, Internet of Everything as well as aware and informed patient-customers.
Predictive and automated home bundles up remote control of utilities, remote monitoring of people and automation enabling assisted living.
Segmented trends and factors of influenceEU Regulation MeCyber security
Expansion of outsourcing at the state and local level
Sustainability
Aging population
Rise of the middle c lass
Generation Y
Cloud
Internet of Everything
Big data
Digitalization
Standardization of healthcare servicesInformation security and data privacy
Public-private collaboration
Reg
Me Sec
Me Eco
Me Env
Me Soc
Me Soc
Me Soc
Me Tec
Me Tec
Me Tec
Me Tec
Ma Reg
Ma Sec
Ma Eco
Informed patient-customers
Preference for home care
Data storage technology
Documentation requirements
Cost pressure
Home care services
From paper to electronic medical recordsPersonalized co-solution approach
Engagement through social media
Online patient communities
Willingness to share personal data
Unified patient databases
Prevention & early detection
Ma Soc
Ma SocMa Env
Tec
Mi Reg
Mi Eco
Mi Eco
Mi Env
Soc
Soc
Mi Soc
Mi SocMi
TecMi
Tec
Wearable technology
1
Consolidation Ma EcoIncreasing demand for sustainable products Ma Env
Growing customer expectations Ma Soc
mHealth
Mi
Tec
MiMi
Tec
All trends and were segmented and ranked according to level. Macro and micro trends were looked at more closely as they impact the specific industry. (step 1)
Through influence analysis key drivers and key areas of change were identified. (step 2 and 3)
The drivers were combined in different constellations to create different scenarios with different impact on key areas of change. The scenarios with most likelihood, most impact on industry and most impact on IT by 2020, were selected for scenario development. (step 4)
Key opportunities for Tieto were identified within scenarios and trends and highlighted in the report. (step 5)
MeMaMi
Mega level: Global, long term, affects how the world looksMacro level: Medium term, affects one or many industries Micro level: Shorter term, changes industry dynamics
Reg
Eco
Sec
Regulatory
Economic
Risk, Security
Env
Soc
Tec
Environmental
Societal
Technological
LEGEND: DriversFactors and trends that have high influence and low dependence towards other trends..
Areas of change
Trends that have high impact but lower influence score and higher dependence score.
Key areas of change 2015-2020
Key industry drivers 2015-20202
3
Mi
Ma
Ma
Personalized medicine Soc
Mi
Note: Please see the Methodology section, delivered separately, for scoring and calculations of trends and scenarios and further methodological explanations.
© Tieto Corporation
Public sector trends
11
Digital public services
Outsourcing government functions
Key areas of change 2015-2020
Key industry drivers 2015-2020
Digital signage and smart urban screens
Public sector optimization and
outsourcing
Citizen-enabled smart public
services
Scenarios
Opportunities for Tieto
Digital public services:(incl. open public data and digital ID as enblers.
2
3
4
5
MeMaMi
Mega level: Global, long term, affects how the world looksMacro level: Medium term, affects one or many industriesMicro level: Shorter term, changes industry dynamics
Reg
Eco
Sec
Regulatory
Economic
Risk, Security
Env
Soc
Tec
Environmental
Societal
Technological
LEGEND: DriversFactors and trends that have high influence and low dependence towards other trends..
Areas of change
Trends that have high impact but lower influence score and higher dependence score.
• Driven by a smaller tax-payer base and the need for a more efficient public sector.
• Investments in DIY services and oursourcing of non-core functions.
• Empowered citizens demand better access and customization of services.
• Digital identification systems enable citizens to receive personalized public services.
Through influence analysis key drivers and key areas of change were identified. (step 2 and 3)
The drivers were combined in different constellations to create different scenarios with different impact on key areas of change. The scenarios with most likelihood, most impact on industry and most impact on IT by 2020, were selected for scenario development. (step 4)
Key opportunities for Tieto were identified within scenarios and trends and highlighted in the report. (step 5)
Digital public servicesOutsourcing of government functions
Digital signage and smart urban screens
Open data applications
The public sector still primarily operates with paper processes. Some have been digitally enhanced, but are not digital in their foundation.
Strong uptake and use of open public data
Increasing usage of digital identification
Shrinking workforce, less government funding
Strong citizen influence
Open data applications
With an estimated market value of € 32 billion in the EU alone, open public data offers significant benefits to both public and private sector.
Digital identification fully unlocks digital public services and enables citizen self-service, which is beneficial to both governments and citizens.
All
tren
ds a
ndw
ere
segm
ente
d an
d ra
nked
acc
ordi
ng
to le
vel.
Mac
ro a
nd m
icro
tr
ends
wer
e lo
oked
at
mor
e cl
osel
y as
the
y im
pact
the
spe
cific
ind
ustr
y. (
step
1)
Segmented trends and factors of influenceMe Reg
Increasing digital identification Ma Tec
1
Increasing global competition Me Eco
Intelligent Transport Systems Ma Tec
Terrorism Me Sec
Un-manned vehicles / transport Ma Tec
National security Me Sec
Urban noise reduction measurements Mi Reg
Climate change Me Env
Smart homes / buildings Mi Reg
Finite natural resources Me Env
Collaborative IT systems Mi Eco
Aging population Me Soc Public Private Partnerships (PPP) Mi EcoGeneration Y Me Soc Prevention of grey economy Mi EcoImmigration / Migration Me Soc
Nordic housing bubble Mi Eco
Urbanization Me SocSpecialization of knowledge intensive growth sectors Mi Eco
E-citizens Me SocIncreasing R&D funding Mi Eco
Cloud Me TecCrisis response systems (apps SoMe) Mi Sec
Digitalization Me TecDigital video monitoring Mi SecElectrification of transport Mi Env
EU regulation Ma Reg Increased use of hybrid vehicles Mi Eco
Customer-centric approach EcoIncreased use of sustainable biofuels Mi Eco
Household debt EcoSmart grids and energy monitoring Mi Eco
Rising unemployment EcoCity hubs Mi Soc
Increasing cyber security needs SecConcerns over immigration policies Mi Soc
Sustainable cities EnvFlipped classroom Mi Soc
Blended learning SocGrowing knowledge Mi Soc
Consolidation of public actors EcoCommuter parking Mi Soc
Digitalization of cultural content SocLocal communities Mi Soc
Educational shift SocOnline degrees and open courses Mi Soc
Shrinking workforce, less gov. funding SocPersonalized learning Mi Soc
Social exclusion and segregation SocAdvanced ticketing systems Mi Tec
Open public data TecDigital payment systems Mi Tec
Digital government platforms Tec
MaMaMaMaMaMaMaMaMaMaMaMaMa
Improved funding for start-ups Mi EcoOutsourcing government functions Mi Eco
Centralization Eco
Increased surveillance Ma TecDigital public services Tec
Ma
Ma
Empowered citizens Ma SocGrowing knowledge and wealth gap Ma Soc
Free trade agreements
E-learning Mi TecHybrid library Mi TecOpen data applications Mi TecInvestment in smart digital infrastructure Mi TecSmart waste management Mi TecDigital urban smart screens Mi TecDigital signage (real time information) Mi TecOn-demand transit services Mi TecIntelligent traffic systems Mi Tec
Big data analytics Me Tec
Digital trust Ma Sec
Note: Please see the Methodology section, delivered separately, for scoring and calculations of trends and scenarios and further methodological explanations.