Trends & Scenarios for Food Security

Mark W. Rosegrant, IFPRI#IFPRI40 November 18, 2015

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 20450%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

Population: Rapid growth in Africa. Developing world urbanizes.Population (billions)

RURAL

URBAN

A demographic shift in developing countries

Africa south of the Sahara

South Asia

East Asia

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, CD-ROM Edition.

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Africa south of the SaharaSouth AsiaDeveloping Countries

Slow decline in malnourishment.Alarming increase in obesity.

Stunted children (millions)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Overweight & obese children (millions)

Source: FAOSTAT3 (http://faostat3.fao.org/download/D/FS/E).

Source: UN in de Onis, M, M. Blössner and E. Borghi. 2010. Global prevalence and trends of overweight and obesity among preschool children. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 92:1257–64. (http://www.who.int/nutgrowthdb/publications/overweight_obesity/en/).

Undernourished people (millions)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Source: de Onis, M, M. Blössner and E. Borghi. 2011 http://www.who.int/nutgrowthdb/publications/Stunting1990_2011.pdf.

AfricaAsiaDeveloping Countries

AfricaAsiaDeveloping Countries

36%39%22%

2.5

US$9.4TRILLION

Source: Veolia Water & IFPRI 2011.

Water stress risk

BILLION PEOPLE

TODAYTotal population living in waterscarce areas

Global GDP generated in water scarce regions

52%49% 45%

US$63TRILLION

Total population living in waterscarce areas

4.7 BILLION PEOPLE

90%

570%

By 2050

Global GDP generated in water scarce regions

populationgrain production

global GDP

Global yields projected 30% lower in 2050

compared to no climate change

Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations.

Heavy toll on rainfed maize with climate change.

(HadGEM2, RCP 8.5)

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Source: IFPRI IMPACT 3.2 Projections.

Food prices increase without climate change; even higher with climate change.

No climate changeAverage with climate changeWith climate change - range across models

(Indexed to 1 in 2010)

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Cereals Roots/tubers

2010 = 1 2010 = 1

Sources: 1969-71 to 1999-2001 from Alexandratos 2006; 2010-2050 from IFPRI's IMPACT 3.2 Projections.

Per capita food consumption grows.Africa and South Asia catching up.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

World Industrial countries Developing countries South Asia Africa south of the Sahara

Per capita food consumption (kcal/person/day) 1979/1981 2010 2050

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

20102050, No Climate Change2050, With Climate Change

Source: IFPRI IMPACT 3.2 Projections.

Improved progress on hunger, but too slow.Climate change increases hunger.

Undernourished people (millions)

Developing countries South Asia Africa south of the Sahara

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Nitrogen use efficiency

No till

Heat tolerance

Precision agriculture

Integrated soil fertility mgt

Crop Protection

Crop protection - weeds

Crop Protection - insects

Drought tolerance

Water harvesting

Sprinkler irrigation

Drip irrigation

Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014).

(% difference from 2050 climate change baseline)

Enlisting technology lowers the number of undernourished people.