New year’s resolutionsWhat new year’s resolution do you have?Why do people formulate new year’s

resolution?Why do you think people don’t stick to their

new year’s resolution?

What does the future mean to you?Future (adjective): Belonging to that part of

time that has not yet occurred but that will occur.

Future (noun): 1. The period of time following the present

moment and continuing indefinitely2. The situation or condition of someone or

something in the future3. One of a plurality of possible future

conditions or situations. These are sometimes defined as alternative futures or just futures

Futuring (verb): the act, art or science of identifying and evaluating possible future events.

Fragmented illusion“From a very early age, we are taught to break apart problems, to fragment the world. This apparently makes complex tasks and subjects more manageable, but we pay a hidden, enormous price. We can no longer see the consequences of our actions; we lose our intrinsic sense of connection to a larger whole. When we then try to “see the big picture” we try to reassemble the fragments in our minds, to list and organize all the pieces. But, as physicist David Bohm says, the task is futile –similar to trying to reassemble the fragments of a broken mirror to see a true reflection. Thus, after a while we give up trying to see the whole altogether.” (Peter Senge, 1990)

Everything is connected to each otherWhen we give up the illusion that the world

is created of separated, unrelated forces, then we can start creating sustainable futures

A pond that ripples, when you throw a stone in it…

A paradigm that can help to think and imagine the multiple connections between the individual parts: Systems Thinking

A system may be defined as any group of things that are connected together so that they act in some ways as a whole:

Examples of systems:The universeThe human bodyThe ecosystemThe social sectorThe economyAn organization

CharachteristicsThe system concept helps us think in very

broad terms about how events occurIt adds structure It focuses our attention to on relationships

rather than on things: “It is the relationship among things themselves, more than the things themselves that shape events”

Focus on relationships, rather than on individual things:

Imagining systems:Interrelatedness and Change: plausibility!

http://www.subblue.com/projects/guilloche

Let’s experiment with systems thinking by using the metaphor of theGuilloche pattern generator**Guilloché is a decorative engraving technique in which a very precise intricate pattern repetitive or design is mechanically engraved into an underlying material with fine detail. Specifically, it involves a technique of  engine turning ,called guilloché in French after the French engineer “Guillot”, who invented a machine “that could scratch fine patterns and designs on metallic surfaces”.

7 levels of Living systems (Miller, 1979)Living systems are divided between: biological

systems and social systems 7 levels of living systems:1. The cell (the amoebae, a muscle cell, a cancer

cell)2. The organ (heart, liver, brains)3. The organism (a man, plant, dog)4. The group (family, gaggle of cheese)5. The organization (school, factory, government)6. The society (Aruba, US, Australia)7. The supranational system (NATO, EU)

Infinitive future potentialities/possibilities

The historian focuses on the actualities of the past; The futurist must deal with the infinitely more numerous potentialities of the futureSince potential events have never had any actuality, we can only imagine them, and many lie beyond the reach of our wildest imagining. However we get a few hints of how incredible must be those things that we cannot imagine

Difference between a historian and a futurist

Chance and Chaos: Butterfly effect

A metaphor to illustrate sensitivity to initial conditions.The metaphor was popularized by MIT’s Edward Lorenz with his 1979 paper: Predictability: does a flap of a butterfly’s wind in Brazil sett off a tornado in Texas?

Explorer’s Attitude: setting out on the expeditionPrepare for what you will face in the futureAnticipate future needsUse poor information when necessaryExpect the unexpectedThink long term as well as short termDream productivelyLearn from your predecessors

Futuring methodsThe goal of futuring is not to predict the

future but to improve it. We want to anticipate possible or likely future conditions so that we can prepare for them. We want to focus in particular on opportunities and risks that we should be ready for.

For this we have a number of useful methods: ordinary procedure that most of us use occasionally in ordinary life, but then more refined

Some futuring methods1. Scanning2. Trend analysis3. Trend monitoring4. Trend projection5. Scenarios6. Polling7. Brainstorming8. Modeling9. Gaming10. Historical analysis11. Visioning

Scanning the world around UsScanning: The process of identifying significant

changes in the external environment –that is, in the world beyond our immediate area of operations-

It can be thought of as the effort to identify and understand those phenomena or aspects of the world that are most relevant to the people or groups who need this information for important decisions.

Is an ongoing processScanning is based on systematic survey of current

newspapers, magazines, research findings, websites and other media for indication of changes likely to have future importance

We are what we measure: choosing the right indicators is crucial

Scanning focuses on trends rather than eventsA trend: changes that occur through timeEvents: changes that occur very quickly

and generally are less significant for understanding the future

Six broad categories of trends:DEGESTDemographyEconomyGovernmentEnvironment (the natural environment)Society/CultureTechnologyOr STEEP categories: Social, Technological,

Environmental, Economic, Political

Procedure (simplified)A. With for e.g. the DEGEST system (or the

STEEP) we can think sequentially about demographic trends then economic, then governmental etc…

B. We then can combine a number of trends into a single major trend that includes them all

C. After that we move to the more complex part of making connections across the categories

D. We look at the relationships among the trends: causes and consequences

Example trend cycle (climate monitoring)

e.g. Trend analysisTrend: A rise in life expectancyCauses: (might be caused by)

rising living standards, better medical treatments, healthier environments

Impact: A longer portion of people’s life will be spent in

retirementIncreasing demand in goods and services for the

eldery and maybe bigger financial strain on families to care for aging parents/grandparents

Golden question:What kind of environment should be designed in

order to accommodate these changes?

Systems thinking:connections

Society:• Population• Lifestyle• Culture• Social

• Education,• organization,

etc…

Economy:• Agriculture• Households• Industry• Transport• Services

•Tourism, etc…

Environment:

• Atmosphere• Hydrosphere

• Land• Biota

•Minerals, etc..

Governance:

•Democracy: choices,

voice•Policies and regulations of the other

sectors

6 Super trends, the great transformation (Cornish, 2005)1. Technological progress2. Economic growth3. Improving health4. Increasing mobility5. Environmental decline6. Increasing deculturation

Scenario’s

Scenario’sConjectures about what might happen in the futureA simple way to develop a scenario is to project a

current trend into the future, but this gives us only one scenario

We need to develop others because not all trends may proceed as we anticipated

Our imagination is important in developing alternative scenario’s

Scenarios are created by means of narratives: “we are defined by the stories we tell each other and ourselves” (Venessa Miemes, 2010)

It is advisable to create a minimum of 3 scenarios when considering future events or situations by identifying futures that are:possible, probable, and preferable

five sample scenarios from Cornish’s (2004) book:1. A Surprise-Free Scenario: Things will continue much

as they are now. They won’t become substantially better or worse.

2. An Optimistic Scenario: Things will go considerably better than in the recent past.

3. A Pessimistic Scenario: Something will go considerably worse than in the past.

4. A Disaster Scenario: Things will go terribly wrong, and our situation will be far worse than anything we have previously experienced.

5. A Transformation Scenario: Something spectacularly marvelous happens – something we never dared to expect.

Forecasting and Backcasting planning for the future

forecasting backcasting

A statement (scenario composed of trends) that something will happen in the future. Forecast implies less certainty about the events occurrence than prediction, but the terms are often used interchangeable

A method for forecasting or planning in which an event is posted as already having occurred in the future. The question then becomes: How did this event come to be? Backcasting offers a way to envision a desirable future and then determine what must happen in order for that goal to be reached

Back to an other kind of butterfly metaphor: metamorphosis

We create our future with the conscious actions in the now

“A bright green future begins when each of us, today, decides to live as if that future were already here.”

- Alex Steffen (World Changing)

We must co- create our future: change agents!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noPcVKf24rk&feature=player_embedded

Co-creating the future of Aruba: Nos Aruba 2025

Let’s take a look at the scenario’s used at the Nos Aruba 2025 planning processPlease take a look at the scenario

statements and blueprint document I’ve just handed in the class

Documentary on Nos Aruba 2025 process:

Video’shttp://

www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwOm4eCIOoQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhsyddLex8M&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxAtO391eSA&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Um_Ibsnw67c&feature=related