forecasting & transport

8/3/2019 Forecasting & Transport

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Logistics & SCMForecasting

Transport

By Prof: Sham Choughule
http://www.immta.org/uploads/SG-SC1411_-_event.pdf


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What is forecast

Estimate of future demand by way ofspecific methodology

This is anticipation of demand for goods inmarket


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Characteristics of Forecast

Support decision to main logistics/SCM

Forecast is always wrong and shouldincluded

>expected value of forecast and

>measure of forecast error

ExampleEstimated GDP growth of India

by various agencies RBI-Economic Research Bureau-P.M. office-world bank

IMF-International Financial instituteKPMG etc


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Characteristics of Forecast

Long term forecasts are usually lessaccurate then short term forecast due tolarger deviation

ExampleMumbai port is handling 0.150 million TEU in2010 . Expected traffic forecast will be 36.4 Million TEU

in 2025 ,Within 15 years. Estimated by KPMG

Therefore, aggregate forecast are usually more accuratethan disaggregate forecast.


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Objectives & Factors of Forecast

Objective

To meet the demand of good in the market

Factors Past DemandHistorical data Lead time of productdomestic v/s foreign country

Planned advertising or special marketing efforts

Up down in economyRecessioncontainer trafficforecast

Planned price discountSoapdetergent


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Problem

A company may find it difficult to decidewhich method is most appropriate forforecasting. In fact several studies have

indicated that using multiple forecastingmethods to create a combined forecast ismore effective than any individual method


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Measures of forecast error

1-Manager can use error analysis todetermine whether the current forecastingmethod is accurately predicting the

systematic component of demand

2-Managers estimate forecast errorbecause any contingency plan must

account for such an error.


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Transport

Use of transport

To move inventory from one place toanother

Mode of transport

Road-rail-air-sea-waterways and pipeline

Multi modal transport is fast growing in allover the world


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IV. Carrier Selection

1. Constitution of the carriers organization2. Business turn over3. Area of operation4. Branch offices or associates offices5. Strength of fleet6. List of clients- current & former, for ascertaining reliability7. Nature and volume of business8. Normal transit time quoted by carrier9. Record of claims settlement by carrier10. Reference from banks, carriers association

omponen s oTransportation Decisions


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Supplier Retail

storesRetail

stores

Supplie

Supplier

Retail

stores

SupplierRetail storesDIRECT

SHIPMENTDIRECT

SHIPMENT

WITH MILKRUNS

ALL SHIPMENT S

VIA DC

MILK RUNS

FROM DC

DESIGN OPTIONS FOR A TRANSPORTATION

NETWORK

supplier

Retail

stores

es gn p ons or aTransportation Network


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Double Stack Containers

Cost saving in transportation


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The Indian Air cargo Market

The growth of air cargo in India has also been manifoldthough it might not have kept pace with the progress madeall over the world. Table 1 shows how both international and

domestic air cargo traffic has increased, reflecting an overallyear on year growth.

Air Ways - Details


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Rope ways

Hilly and otherwise inaccessible area

Steep gradients

Cause minimum ecological imbalance

Point of supply and demand can beconnected by shortest route

Logistics of fruits in Himachal Pradesh

Rope Ways- Details


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Road Ways - Connection


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Road transport High flexibility and speed

Ultimate mode of transport

Rapid growth, post war

Low capital cost as compared to railways

179.2 billion tonne-kilometres and 44.2% of total tonne kilo-metres moved in1982 in India

585 billion tonne-kilometres and 56% of total tonne kilo-metres moved in Indianow

Operating costs are higher

Ideal for small shipments over short distances

Road Ways- Details


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Pipelines

Gases and vapors- natural gas, LPG, in India LPG pipe line is in existence

Pulverized dry bulk material - cement by hydraulic suspension

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