national transport model overview and … · what is the national transport model? ... •traffic...
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NATIONAL TRANSPORT MODEL Overview and Applications Philip Shiels
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1
Overview
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Overview What is the National Transport Model?
• A tool to forecast travel demand & patterns across Ireland
• Covers road and rail transport
• Focused on inter-urban and strategic trips
• Incorporates a view of the future
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Overview Why do we need a model?
• Robust method of testing national policies and programmes
• Provide a consistent base for the testing of national and major regional schemes
• Support the development of more local transport models
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Overview How does the model work?
• Reflects existing travel patterns
• Contains current and future planned transport networks (road and rail)
• Calculates cost of making trips both now and in the future
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Structure What are the building blocks of the model?
Demographic &
Economic Models
Trip Attraction
Generation
Model
Trip Distribution
Model
Freight Model
National Traffic
Model (NTM)
National Rail
Model (NRM)
National Bus
Model (NBM)
Variable Demand
Model (VDM)
National
Transport Model
(NTpM)
Car Ownership
Model
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Structure Representing Travel Patterns Using Zones
Galway Area Zone Structure
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Building Blocks National Traffic Model
• Some headline network statistics
897km motorway
298km dual carriageway
4,110km single carriageway
• Ability to reflect route choice
Distance
Travel Time
Cost
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Building Blocks Variable Demand Model
Variable Demand
Model
National Traffic Model
National Bus
Model
National Rail
Model
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2
APPLICATIONS
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Applications Overview
Current Applications
• Project Appraisal
• Strategic Studies
• Demand Management
• Road Charging
Future Applications
• NTpM ‘Light Touch’
• TEN-T Analysis
Possible Applications
• Incident Management
• Event Planning
• Environmental
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3
CURRENT APPLICATIONS
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Applications Current Applications
Project Appraisal
• Local Area Models
- Starting Point Only
- Basic Network/Zones
- Demand Data
- Used by various consultants
• Refinement Required
- Local Traffic Survey Data
- Network Refinement
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Applications Current Applications
Variable Demand Model
• Operates at a National Level
• Full cost of trip required
- e.g. Dublin to Galway
• Required when:
- Significant change in travel cost
- Dense urban areas
- Competing modes
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Applications Current Applications
Growth Forecasts
• Provides growth factors up to 2050
• Each zone in model
• Provides consistency
NRA Project Appraisal Guidelines
• Transport Modelling
• Traffic Forecasting
• Cost Benefit Analysis
http://www.nra.ie/policy-publications/project-appraisal-guideli/
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Applications Current Applications
Current Applications
• Strategic Studies
- N4-N7 Roads Study
- M1/N2/M3 and Slane
- Limerick Traffic Management
- M50/N11 Corridor Study
• Road Charging Studies
- M1 Drogheda
- November 2013 Toll Holiday
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HGV Toll free November forecasts Increase in HGV traffic through tolls - Modelled vs. Actual
14%
47%
13%
45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
M1, M3, M6 N18
NTpM forecast Nov. 2013 observed
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Applications Current Applications
• Identification of low volume
national secondary roads
(Type 3 single carriageway
design)
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Applications Current Applications
Demand Management
• M50
- Demand Management Study
- Condition of An Bord Pleanála
• NTpM Application
- Fiscal Element of Strategy
- Variable Demand Model
• Used with
- NTA GDA Model
- Adjusted Demand Matrices
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Applications Current Applications
Service Area Policy
• Identify approximate locations for new Service & Rest Areas
• Data from NTpM used to inform the study
- Traffic Volumes (AADT)
- Percentage HCV
- Trip Length Distribution
www.nra.ie/policy-publications/service-areas/
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Applications Current Applications
• Transport Research Information Notes (TRIN)
- Various Notes
- Accessibility and Economic
Potential
ww.nra.ie/policy-
publications/transport-research-and-
in/
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Applications Current Applications
DTTAS Speed Limit Reduction Impacts
• Nat. Secondary Road
- 100kph 80kph
• NTpM was used to assess
- Population of road users impacted
by reductions
- Journey Time Dis-Benefits
- Safety Impacts
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Applications Current Applications
NRA Asset Management System
• Interoperability with Asset Management System
- NRA GIS network link
- Pavement Management System
- Evaluation of Maintenance Needs
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Applications Current Applications
Data Sharing
• HGV user charging
• Data sharing with other agencies
- DTTAS (SFILT)
- Central Bank
- Irish Rail
- CSO Transport Indicators Group
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Applications Current Applications
Data Sharing
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Applications Current Applications
NRA Indicators Report
• Data provided from the NTpM;
- AADT
- LOS
- Trip Duration
- Trip Distance
- National Road Vehicle kilometres
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Applications Current Applications
Planning Applications • Planning Applications
- Traffic Impact Assessment
- Strategic Impacts
- Consultation with Local Authorities
Noise Mapping • Noise Mapping Models
- Traffic Volume Data
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4
FUTURE APPLICATIONS
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Applications Future Application
NTpM ‘Light Touch’ Update
• Annual estimation of demand
- Traffic data from NRA TMUs
- Annual Rail Data
- Aggregate Bus Data
• Application
- Used to estimate total kilometres
- Used to inform NRA Asset Management
System
Next CSO Census – Full Update of NTpM
NRA TMU
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Applications Future Application
TEN-T Network Analysis
• Trans-European Transport Network
- EU Regulation
- Road/Rail/Water/Air
• Road Network
- 2030 Core Network
- 2050 Comprehensive Network
- Particular Standard
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5
POSSIBLE APPLICATIONS
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Applications Possible Applications
Possible Future Applications
• ITS Strategy
• Incident Management
• Major Event Planning
• Incorporation of Bluetooth site data
• Liaison with MMaRC Contractors
• Maintenance / Renewal Strategies
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Applications Possible Applications
Possible Future Applications
• Responses to changes in fuel prices
• Impacts of electric vehicle usage
• Forecasting PPP Subsidies
Possible Future Applications
• Environmental
- Emissions models
- ‘National Air Quality Model’
• Communication
- Data dissemination
- Academic research
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Thank You