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Forecasting Report Maidstone VISUM Transport Model CO04300370/003 Revision 01
August 2016
Document Control Sheet
Project Name: Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Project Number: CO04300370
Report Title: Forecasting Report
Report Number: 003
Issue Status/Amendment
Prepared Reviewed Approved
00 (Draft for Comment)
Name: Margaret Nicholls
Name: Steve Whittaker
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Signature: Date: 14/07/16
Signature: Date: 15/07/16
Signature: Date:
01 (Addition to Appendix F)
Name: Margaret Nicholls
Name: Charlotte Saunders
Name: Steve Whittaker
Signature: Date: 04/08/16
Signature: Date: 05/08/16
Signature: Date: 08/08/16
Name:
Name:
Name:
Signature: Date:
Signature: Date:
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Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370/003 Rev. 01 - i - Issued: August 2016
Contents
1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 1
2 Background ........................................................................................................ 2
2.1 Base Model ....................................................................................................... 2
2.2 2014 Model ....................................................................................................... 3
2.3 2014 Modelling Approach ................................................................................... 3
3 2031 Forecast Model .......................................................................................... 6
3.1 Background ....................................................................................................... 6
3.2 Modelling Approach ........................................................................................... 6
3.3 2031 Model Scenarios ........................................................................................ 7
3.4 Forecast Travel Demand .................................................................................. 12
4 Model Output ................................................................................................... 16
4.1 Model Performance .......................................................................................... 16
4.2 Travel Demand ................................................................................................ 17
4.3 Mode Share .................................................................................................... 18
4.4 Park & Ride ..................................................................................................... 19
4.5 Highway Network Performance ......................................................................... 19
4.6 Public Transport .............................................................................................. 23
4.7 Link Flows ....................................................................................................... 24
4.8 Junction Delay................................................................................................. 26
4.9 Trip Distance ................................................................................................... 31
4.10 Journey Times ................................................................................................. 32
4.11 Leeds / Langley Bypass .................................................................................... 36
5 Summary .......................................................................................................... 39
Appendix A 2014 Model Output Summary 1
Appendix B Transport Strategy Specification 12
Appendix C TRICS Trip Rates 20
Appendix D Housing and Commercial Development Allocation 22
Appendix E TEMPRO Data 24
Appendix F Model Output 28
Appendix G Level of Service 38
Appendix H Journey Time Profiles 39
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370/003 Rev. 01 - ii - Issued: August 2016
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.: CO04300370/003 Rev. 01 - 1 - Issued: August 2016
1 Introduction
1.1.1 Amey have been commissioned by Kent County Council (KCC) and Maidstone Borough
Council (MBC) to provide transport modelling support to assess the traffic impact of Local
Plan options for the borough of Maidstone.
1.1.2 The commission involves the use of the existing Maidstone VISUM model, which was initially
developed by consultants Jacobs on behalf of KCC and MBC. The model is to be used to
assess the impact of the forecast demand for travel by car, commercial vehicle, bus and rail
with alternative development and transport infrastructure options.
1.1.3 In the first instance forecast models were developed for a 2031 Do Minimum scenario, to
provide a benchmark, and numerous 2031 Do Something scenarios to assist in the Local Plan
decision making process. These 2031 forecast scenarios were developed by MBC/KCC based
upon differing development aspirations and alternative transport strategy approaches to
tackling existing and forecast transport issues. The key inputs and outputs from these initial
forecast scenarios are provided in the associated Amey report ref: CO04300370/002~00
(October 2015).
1.1.4 This report summarises the development of the latest 2031 forecast scenarios, which have
been based upon the objectively assessed need for housing in Maidstone borough. Two
alternative Do Something scenarios are presented representing variations to the proposed
transport strategy for the borough.
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
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2 Background
2.1 Base Model
The current Maidstone 2031 forecast models have been developed to provide a reasonable
and acceptable basis to assess the impact of potential future year development and strategy
scenarios. The forecast models have been based upon an existing base model that was
originally developed in 2007 by consultants Jacobs.
2.1.1 The original Maidstone VISUM model was developed to assist in the development of the
Local Development Framework (LDF) and to assess the transport impacts of future
developments in Maidstone Borough. The model was developed as a multi modal, variable
demand model validated against AM and PM 2007 base year conditions. The base model,
founded on observed data, census data and a range of other sources, was further developed
to produce 2026 forecast year models for a range of different scenarios.
2.1.2 The detailed modelled area encompasses the urban area of Maidstone borough and includes
the M20 corridor to the north of the town. The wider network, modelled in less detail,
extends to include all the major approaches to the town.
Figure 2-1: Detailed Model Area
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2.1.3 The junctions between the local road network and the slip road on to and off the M20 are
modelled in detail. The M20 itself is modelled with appropriate capacity and reflects the
carriageway split between junctions 4 and 6. The merging movements at the slip roads
junctions with the main M20 carriageway and the merge and diverge movements between
sections of main carriageway are not modelled in detail.
2.2 2014 Model
2.2.1 Due to the age of the existing base model the first step was to develop a version to
represent a 2014 baseline and to carry out a sense check against available data to establish
whether the model continued to provide a reasonable reflection of the travel pattern in and
through the town.
2.2.2 The 2014 refresh of the base model was developed to include all known information about
development and transport infrastructure changes from 2007 to 2014. A high level sense
check of the model performance was then carried out using available count and journey time
data.
2.3 2014 Modelling Approach
2.3.1 A review of the Maidstone model files that were provided to Amey was carried out to
establish the content of the model and data available. Based on this review a modelling
approach was proposed for the development of forecast models to represent 2031 making
the best use of information available.
2.3.2 Amey have undertaken similar Local Plan testing for other Kent districts using existing
models. Each of the models differs in content and application to some degree, but the
approach taken has been essentially the same.
2.3.3 The model process involves the generation of reference matrices from an existing start point,
which in this case is the 2007 base model. The forecast matrices are developed using
planning data, trip rates derived from TRICS, which were used in previous models; and local
growth factors from TEMPRO. Base matrices are furnessed to forecast trip totals, with
relevant adjustments to account for empty zones or sparse distributions, to produce new
reference matrices.
2.3.4 The new reference matrices are assigned to the network which includes any changes
proposed to the highway or public transport provision. The new assignment allows for skims
to be generated for travel costs which are used for the main incremental mode choice for
car, bus and rail trips.
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Document Title Forecasting Report
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2.3.5 Park & Ride cars are determined from a sub-mode choice of home based car trips to
estimate the ‘car all the way’ and ‘car with Park & Ride’ element. For the PM peak model,
the AM peak Park & Ride car trips are transposed and adjusted to reflect PM peak
movements.
2.3.6 It should be noted that with this approach the 2014 trip distribution is not based on a
variable demand response but is built upon the base model trip distribution. The AM and PM
models are not linked and there is no time of day choice modelling adjustment.
2014 Travel Demand
2.3.7 The 2014 Maidstone model incorporates identified land use changes between the base year
2007 and 2014. This is based on data provided by MBC for planning approvals, consents and
completions up to 2014. The net development quanta incorporated into the 2014 model is
summarised in Table 2-1 below. The development identified is reasonably well distributed
across the Borough and is considered unlikely to have a significant impact on the pattern of
distribution of the traffic.
Table 2-1: 2014 Development
Development Net increase
Houses 4166 units
Employment 14693 m2
Retail 19693 m2
2.3.8 Trip generation for the new development was based on established TRICS data used in the
previous forecast models. External traffic movements with no trip end in Maidstone (which
includes some of the M20 traffic) were updated to 2014 based on average growth for the
south east established from TEMPRO (TEMPRO 6.2).
2014 Transport Infrastructure
2.3.9 All known changes to transport infrastructure and other modelled elements from 2007 were
included in the 2014 model. The network changes incorporated are comparatively limited in
their impact on traffic movement around the town. The changes made for the 2014 model
include:
New signals at the junction of Cripple Street with A229 Loose Road;
Access to Sittingbourne Road Park & Ride site including traffic signals;
Access to new hospital site adjacent to Newnham Court on Bearsted Road;
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Updated bus services; and
2007 Bus fares and car parking charges adjusted to reflect current costs.
2014 Model Output
2.3.10 A review of the 2014 model was carried out as a sense check of the model performance and
not as a full validation exercise. The review is based on the traffic flow and travel time data
that was readily available from a number of sources.
2.3.11 For the journey time output the standard DMRB criteria for the validation of journey times
has been used as an indicator of the network performance. The modelled traffic flows have
been compared with observed data at 58 locations across the town, using the standard
DMRB criteria for link flow assessment. In addition model flows were compared with
observed data at 25 locations on the M20 corridor.
2.3.12 Of the 58 link flows within Maidstone, 78% and 72% of the AM and PM peak modelled flows
respectively met the normal acceptable criteria.
2.3.13 Inbound and outbound journey times on the radial routes met the normal acceptable criteria
in all but 2 cases in the AM peak. All the PM journey times met the criteria. A summary of
the link flow and journey time data and model performance is contained within Appendix A.
2.3.14 The 2014 AM and PM models were considered to provide a reasonable representation of the
current travel conditions within Maidstone at the time of the review.
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Document Title Forecasting Report
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3 2031 Forecast Model
3.1 Background
3.1.1 The preliminary 2031 forecast models were required in the first instance to reflect alternative
development strategies in terms of the quantum and location of housing allocations and
associated transport strategies. The transport strategies included highway improvements,
public transport improvements, assumptions around parking costs and other elements such
as walking and cycling.
3.1.2 This report summarises the development and output of the latest 2031 forecast model
scenarios, which have been based on the objectively assessed need (OAN) development
allocation and transport strategy variations that emerged from the preliminary model runs.
3.2 Modelling Approach
3.2.1 A review of the Maidstone model files that were provided to Amey was carried out to
establish the content of the model and data available. Based on this review a modelling
approach was proposed for the development of forecast models to represent anticipated
network performance in 2031. This approach has been designed to make the best use of the
models and supporting data available.
3.2.2 The 2031 forecast models incorporate forecast travel demand built on the original base
model distribution and is not based on a variable demand response. The AM and PM peak
models provide for route choice and for mode choice between car, bus and rail. A sub mode
choice and distribution operates for Park & Ride cars. The peak hour models operate
independently and there is no allowance for time of day choice adjustment.
3.2.3 The forecast matrices are developed using planning data, trip rates derived from TRICS,
which were used in previous models; and local growth factors from TEMPRO. Base matrices
are furnessed to forecast trip totals, with relevant adjustments to account for empty zones or
sparse distributions, to produce new reference matrices.
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
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3.2.1 The new demand matrices are assigned to the network which includes any changes
proposed to the highway or public transport provision. The new assignment allows for skims
to be generated for travel costs which are used for the main mode choice for car, bus and
rail trips. The main mode choice provides for the transfer of trips between car, bus and rail
based on the change in travel costs extracted from the 2014 models and 2031 models. The
mode choice process takes into account car availability which is based on local census travel
data.
3.2.2 Park & Ride cars are determined from a sub-mode choice of home based car trips to
estimate the ‘car all the way’ and ‘car with Park & Ride’ element. For the PM peak model,
the AM peak Park & Ride car trips are transposed and adjusted to reflect PM peak
movements. The bus leg of the Park & Ride journey is not included in the general matrices
for travel demand by bus.
3.3 2031 Model Scenarios
3.3.1 The 2031 forecast model scenarios developed represent a Do Minimum and two alternative
Do Something scenarios which are summarised in Table 3-1 below.
Table 3-1 Modelled Scenarios
Ref Model Model Summary
DM 2031 Do Minimum 2031 forecast travel demand (OAN development)
Committed highway improvements only
DS4A 2031 Do Something - Scenario A
2031 forecast travel demand (OAN development)
Proposed transport strategy (including Leeds / Langley Bypass)
DS4B 2031 Do Something - Scenario B
2031 forecast travel demand (OAN development)
Proposed transport strategy (excluding Leeds / Langley Bypass)
3.3.2 The proposed transport strategy for Maidstone, provided by MBC and agreed in principle at
the Maidstone Joint Transportation Board, is summarised in Appendix B. The strategy
includes transport interventions in the form of committed highway improvements, a package
of additional highway changes, public transport improvements and policy changes focussed
on car parking costs and walking and cycling provision. Table 3-2 summarises the transport
interventions included in each model.
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Document Title Forecasting Report
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Table 3-2 Transport Interventions
Highway Schemes Description
Scenario
2031 DM
2031 DS4A
2031 DS4B
Bridges Gyratory New northbound link to bypass the gyratory
via the river bridges Yes Yes Yes
A20 / Coldharbour Lane
Junction
Junction capacity and signals – no change
to M20 J5 Yes Yes
A249 / Bearsted Rd roundabout
Junction improvements Yes Yes
Bearsted Rd / New Cut
junction Junction improvements Yes Yes
Dual carriageway
between A249 and New Cut junctions
Increased capacity and junction
arrangement Yes Yes
A20 Ashford Road /
Willington Street Junction capacity and signals arrangement Yes Yes
A229 / A274 Wheatsheaf
Junction Close exit to Cranbourne Avenue Yes Yes
A274 / Willington Street Junction
Junction capacity improvements Yes Yes
A274 / Wallis Avenue
Junction Junction capacity improvements Yes Yes
A26 / Fountain Lane
Junction
Changes to accommodate right turn
vehicles within the junction Yes Yes
M20 Junction 7 improvement
Signals on M20 eastbound approach and A249 approaches to the roundabout
Yes Yes
New Cut / A20 left turn
slip
Junction expansion to include left hand turn
slip with give way at A20 (to allow for bus
priority right hand turn lane). NB Bus priority not modelled.
Yes Yes
Hermitage Lane
pedestrian signals
New pedestrian signals near vehicle access
to Barming Station Yes Yes
Leeds / Langley Bypass Route
Alternative new route linking the A274 and
the A20. Single carriageway road passing west of Leeds and east of Langley,
terminating with roundabouts at each end.
Yes
P&R
Sittingbourne Road P&R P&R site removed from the model Yes Yes Yes
PR bus services 15 minute frequency assumed Yes Yes Yes
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Highway Schemes Description
Scenario
2031 DM
2031 DS4A
2031 DS4B
Other Measures
Car parking charges 50% increase in parking charges - weighted to impact long stay rather than short stay
parking
Yes Yes
Notcutts shuttle bus New shuttle bus route from Notcutts to the bus station with 20 minute frequency
Yes Yes
Walking / cycling mode
share
Reduction in HBW & HBO vehicle trips of <5km in the urban area of Maidstone, to
reflect the aspired increases in walking and cycling trips
Yes Yes
Bus Services Bus services on main radial routes increased
to provide an average 10 minute frequency. Yes Yes
Bridges Gyratory
3.3.3 The Bridges Gyratory scheme is the key committed highway improvement included in the
2031 Do Minimum (DM) model and both of the 2031 Do Something A (DS4A) and 2031 Do
Something B (DS4B) models. The scheme is designed to provide a new northbound link for
A229 traffic to bypass the gyratory system currently operating across the two river bridges.
Junction Improvements
3.3.4 The 2031 DS4A and DS4B models include junction improvements at A20/Coldharbour Lane,
A249/Bearsted Rd, Bearsted Rd/New Cut, New Cut/A20, A20/Willington St, A229/ A274
Wheatsheaf, A274/Willington St, A274/Wallis Ave, M20 J7 and A26/Fountain Lane. Junction
layout and traffic signal arrangements have been taken from data provided, which originates
from a range of sources including documents supporting various planning applications.
Leeds/Langley Bypass
3.3.5 The 2031 DS4A model includes an indicative Leeds Langley Bypass route between the A20
and A274, passing to the west of Leeds and to the east of Langley. This route is modelled
based on very broad assumptions around road standard, location and alignment. The 2031
DS4B model excludes the Leeds/Langley Bypass route.
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Document Title Forecasting Report
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Bus Services
3.3.6 For the DS4A and DS4B models the existing bus services were modified to provide the
equivalent of a 10 minute bus frequency on the main radial routes into the town. Additional
buses were added to the services operating along the A229 (S), A229 (N) and A20 (E)
corridors to achieve the target frequency. It should be noted that the addition of bus
services within the model takes no account of the practicality of their provision or capacity
available for additional buses within the town.
3.3.7 For DS4A and DS4B an additional new shuttle bus service is included, operating between the
Notcutts site and the bus station with a 20 minute frequency.
3.3.8 The Park & Ride bus service to the Sittingbourne Road Park & Ride site was recently
withdrawn and is not included in the 2031 DM, 2031 DS4A or 2031 DS4B models.
Car Parking Charges
3.3.9 A 50% increase in car parking charges is proposed for public long stay parking. It should be
noted that the car parks within the town are not modelled specifically. Average car parking
costs representing long stay and short stay parking per zone are used within the model for
the mode choice process. The increase in parking costs applied for long stay parking has
been weighted to reflect the balance of long stay and short stay parking places within zones.
It was agreed that no changes should be made to other travel costs within the model.
Walking and Cycling Mode Share
3.3.10 The proposed transport strategy has the objective of increasing the number of walking and
cycling trips. The aspiration is for an 8.5% increase in the cycling mode share over the 2014
base, representing a 0.5% increase per year to 2031. A similar increase is envisaged for the
walking mode share.
3.3.11 The Maidstone model is essentially a highway model with a mode choice option to estimate
the potential transfer of trips between car, bus or rail. The model does not include walking
and cycling modes of travel. The most appropriate way to reflect the anticipated increase in
walking and cycling in the Maidstone model is to reduce the number of trips assigned within
the model to car travel. This approach requires an interpretation of a ‘% increase in walking
and cycling trips’ into a reasonable adjustment of car trips that are modelled.
3.3.12 Walking and cycling trips, as part of the wider sustainable modes, have been the subject of
various studies into the possibility of reducing the number of car trips. A wide range of
estimates have been produced to describe the potential to change the way in which people
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choose to travel under different circumstances.
3.3.13 A study for the Department for Transport (DfT)1 reported estimates for a potential reduction
in car trips from 5% to 21% in the urban peak hour, depending on the transport
interventions employed. A study of the impact of sustainable transport interventions in
Darlington, Peterborough and Worcester reported a decrease in car trips of 9% in response
to a range of measures employed.2
3.3.14 Some care is needed in the interpretation of the outcomes of the different studies as the
estimated reduction in car trips is the outcome of measures related to all sustainable modes
of travel and not directly related to specific changes in walking and cycling provision only.
Guidance in DfT Tag Unit M5.2 suggests establishing a benchmark for car trip reduction
using target values as a starting point.
3.3.15 In the absence of detailed information on the existing levels of walking and cycling in
Maidstone for different purposes, a relatively simplistic approach to this complex issue has
been agreed with MBC/KCC and adopted, based on broad assumptions about the impact of a
sustainable travel strategy. As a proxy for the aspired increase in walking and cycling trips
the 2031 home based car trips have been adjusted down based on achieving 25% of the
target values suggested in DfT Tag Unit M5.2.
3.3.16 An adjustment was applied only to home based work and home based other highway trips
with an origin and destination within the Maidstone urban area zones. In order to reflect
trips that might reasonably be expected to have the option of walking or cycling, the
adjustment was applied only to HBW and HBO trips of 5km or less.
3.3.17 Based on achieving 25% of the sustainable travel strategy target values the net result is a
reduction of 253 vehicle trips of 5km or less in the AM peak and 240 vehicle trips in the PM
peak. This represents approximately 1% of all home based vehicle trips for both peaks.
Park & Ride
3.3.18 The Park & Ride service which previously provided for parking at three locations now serves
two sites at London Road and Willington Street. Parking is provided free of charge and
passengers pay for the bus leg of the journey.
1 Cairns, S., Sloman, L., Newson, C., Anable, J., & Goodwin, P. 2004. ‘Smarter Choices – Changing the way we travel’.
2 Sloman, L., Cairns, S., Newson, C., Anable, J., Pridmore, A. & Goodwin, P. 2010. ‘The Effects of Smarter Choice Programmes in the Sustainable Travel Towns: Summary Report (Report to the DfT, February 2010)
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3.3.19 Within the model the Park & Ride trips are dealt with as a sub mode choice for HBW and
HBO car trips only. The cars that might be expected to switch to Park & Ride are estimated
based on travel time and travel costs by bus and by car. The travel time by bus is affected
by the location of bus stopping points in relation to the final destination and the frequency of
bus service provided. The car travel time is influenced by the location and accessibility of the
Park & Ride sites.
3.3.20 There is an element of geographic restriction incorporated within the model to avoid trips
originating in the town centre driving out to the Park & Ride site and returning to the town
by bus.
3.3.21 The model does not specifically account for the capacity of Park & Ride sites. The Park &
Ride trips are based on the highway assignment and are recorded in the vehicle trips. The
bus leg of the journey is not included in the bus trips. The PM peak Park & Ride car journeys
are assumed to mirror the AM peak trips which are transposed and adjusted to reflect the
PM peak rate of returns.
3.4 Forecast Travel Demand
3.4.1 The forecast year travel demand is built on the estimate of the number of trips to be made
based on changes of land use and demographic variables. For model zones within Maidstone
Borough the forecast travel demand is estimated based on planned, completed and approved
development to 2014 and the proposed Local Plan development to 2031.
3.4.2 The generation of trips by the anticipated development is estimated using agreed trip rates,
which are derived from the TRICS trip rate database (Appendix C). The trip rates are
consistent with those used in the development of the original Maidstone model and
configured to account for trip generation by purpose and time of day.
3.4.3 The proposed location and quantum of forecast development to 2031 for Maidstone Borough
was provided by MBC. The Local Plan housing units and retail and employment land for
development that is included in the model is summarised in Table 3-3 and listed in
Appendix D.
3.4.4 The housing allocations for DM, DS4A and DS4B include completions and permissions to
March 2015 in addition to approved sites, extant permissions, Local Plan allocations sites
expected to come forward; and an allowance for windfall sites to 2031. The allowance made
for ‘windfall’ sites and the shortfall were assumed to occur across the urban area of the town
and were evenly distributed to these zones, but excluding the core town centre zones.
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3.4.5 The key locations for employment land are Woodcut Farm at Hollingbourne and the Kent
Medical Campus on Bearsted Road, with smaller allocations distributed around Marden,
Coxheath, Yalding, Headcorn. Retail land allocation is largely within the town centre.
Table 3-3 Forecast Development to 2031
Development Type 2031
DM & DS4 & DS4B
Residential 18,560 units
Employment 200,100 m2
Retail 12,100 m2
3.4.6 The Local Plan development allocations are broadly assumed to account for growth within
the borough to 2031. Background growth to account for changes such as demography and
car ownership etc. has been allowed for, based on adjusted TEMPRO factors, modified to
negate the influence of development. Weightings have been applied to the Tempro factors
used for model zones which fall within more than one TEMPRO zone.
3.4.7 For movements between zones outside Maidstone Borough, forecast travel demand is based
on growth for Kent County; extracted from TEMPRO 6.2. The exception is for model zones
falling all or partly within the TEMPRO zone for Aylesford and East Malling which is adjacent
to and in close proximity to the Maidstone urban area. TEMPRO growth specific to this area
has been used in this case. Extracts from TEMPRO for Kent and Maidstone (by trip purpose,
mode and period) are summarised in Appendix E.
3.4.8 The net outcome of the planned and anticipated development, background growth and
external traffic growth is an 18% - 19% increase in person movements by 2031 for the AM
and PM peaks respectively, prior to adjustment for walk and cycle trips.
Trip Purpose
3.4.9 The travel patterns and growth in trips vary for different trip purposes. Travel demand in the
Maidstone model is split into the following trips purposes:
Home Based Work (HBW);
Home Based Other (HBO);
Non Home Based Work (NHBO); and
Employer’s Business (EB).
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Document Title Forecasting Report
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Heavy Goods (HGV) and Light Goods Vehicles (LGV) are dealt with separately.
3.4.10 Travel patterns and purposes differ between the AM and PM peak periods, as indicated in
Table 3-4, but the overall composition of the forecast travel demand by trip purpose remains
similar to that for 2014; the largest proportion of trips being HBW trips.
Table 3-4 Composition of Travel Demand
2014 2031
Trip Purpose AM Peak PM Peak AM Peak PM Peak
HBW 51.5% 46.2% 52.3% 46.5%
HBO 27.2% 27.5% 26.5% 28.0%
NHBO 8.9% 11.7% 8.7% 12.3%
EB 12.3% 14.6% 12.5% 13.2%
3.4.11 The growth in travel demand by purpose differs between the AM and PM peaks (Table 3-5),
reflecting the different characteristics of the peak periods. Home based work (HBW) and
employers business (EB) trips increase by around 20% in the AM peak. In the PM peak the
highest growth is for non-home based other (NHBO) trips.
Table 3-5 % Growth in Travel Demand – 2014 to 2031
Trip Purpose AM Peak PM Peak
HBW 20.1% 14.7%
HBO 15.3% 17.5%
NHBO 15.5% 26.7%
EB 19.9% 8.5%
Trip Distribution
3.4.12 A furnessing procedure was used to establish the forecast trip distribution based on the base
matrices and forecast 2031 trip ends. The Maidstone model base matrices are reasonably
well populated and provided a reference distribution. For instances where trips were
allocated to zones with sparse or no existing trip ends, a distribution was established using a
similar adjacent zone.
3.4.13 Table 3-6 provides a broad comparison of the modelled distribution of AM peak home based
work car trips to and from Maidstone with extracted census data. The comparison is based
on approximately comparable census and model sectors.
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Table 3-6 Distribution of HBW Car Trips to and from Maidstone
Trip Distribution
to/from Maidstone
2011 Census (HBW cars)
2014
AM peak
(HBW cars)
2031
AM peak
(HBW cars)
From To From To From To
Maidstone 43.4% 42.2% 54.4% 53.8% 55.8% 60.2%
Tonbridge and Malling 15.0% 10.1% 18.4% 11.4% 17.7% 9.9%
Tunbridge Wells 5.5% 3.7% 3.7% 2.3% 3.6% 2.0%
Ashford 3.3% 5.8% 1.7% 3.5% 1.6% 3.1%
Canterbury 1.1% 2.3% 0.6% 2.0% 0.6% 1.8%
Dartford 2.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Dover 0.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6%
Gravesham 1.3% 1.8% 0.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.8%
Medway 8.9% 14.6% 5.8% 12.1% 5.6% 10.1%
Sevenoaks 2.3% 1.4% 1.5% 0.8% 1.5% 0.6%
Shepway 0.6% 1.7% 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.9%
Swale 3.4% 6.6% 2.3% 5.9% 2.2% 5.2%
Thanet 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.8%
E Sussex 0.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4%
external 12.1% 5.8% 9.2% 3.8% 8.9% 3.3%
NB - approximate comparison for illustration using census / model sectors
3.4.14 The distribution of trips in the 2014 model is reasonably similar to the pattern displayed by
the 2011 census data. The 2031 forecast distribution indicates a slightly higher proportion of
trips within Maidstone and slightly lower proportion of trips to/from Tonbridge and Malling
and Medway. However these differences comparatively small.
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4 Model Output
4.1 Model Performance
4.1.1 The convergence criteria used to monitor the model performance and the acceptability
thresholds used are shown in Table 4-1. The outcome for each of the models is summarised
in Table 4-2. The three variants of the model in both peaks meet the required criteria.
Table 4-1 Convergence Criteria
Criteria
Acceptability threshold
1 Relative difference between turning flows in previous assignment and current assignment
GEH less than 1 for more than 95% of turns
2 Relative difference between current assignment and smoothed ICA turning volumes
GEH less than 1 for more than 95% of turns
3 Relative gap between ICA wait time and VDF time Less than 0.05 for 90%
of turns
Table 4-2 Model Convergence
AM peak
Target DM DS4A DS4B
Number of iterations Max 50 13 12 12
Criteria 1 95% 98.9% 99.2% 99.0%
Criteria 2 95% 95.1% 96.5% 95.5%
Criteria 3 90% 97.7% 98.3% 98.1%
PM peak
Target DM DS4A DS4B
Number of iterations Max 50 12 11 12
Criteria 1 95% 97.7% 98.5% 98.8%
Criteria 2 95% 95.8% 95.2% 96.0%
Criteria 3 90% 98.0% 98.4% 98.1%
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4.2 Travel Demand
4.2.1 Travel demand within the model refers to trips made by car, light goods vehicles (LGV),
heavy goods vehicles (HGV), bus or rail. Walking and cycling modes of travel are not
modelled specifically, however, assumptions about the expected level of walk and cycle trips
have been allowed for in the estimate of trip generation for the Do Something scenarios.
Forecast travel demand is determined by the 2031 development allocation and on
assumptions around factors such as car occupancy and use of sustainable modes of travel.
4.2.2 The 2031 Do Minimum (DM) total travel demand, in person trips, arising from the forecast
development represents an increase between 18-19% over the 2014 base model. The Do
Something scenarios (DS4A & DS4B) include an allowance for a forecast increase in walking
and cycling which accounts for 0.4-0.5% reduction in person trips compared to the DM
scenario.
Table 4-3 Travel Demand – Person Trips
Person Trips 2014 2031 DM 2031
DS4A* 2031
DS4B*
AM Peak 50300 59100 58800 58800
% diff from 2031 DM -0.5% -0.5%
PM Peak 44900 53300 53100 53100
% diff from2031 DM -0.4% -0.4%
* After adjustment for walking and cycling assumptions
4.2.3 Travel demand by vehicle for the DM model increases by 16% and 20% for the AM and PM
peak respectively. The transport interventions and other changes included for the Do
Something models have the effect of reducing the vehicle demand by 5% from the Do
Minimum in both peaks.
Table 4-4 Travel Demand – Vehicle Trips
Vehicle Trips 2014 2031 DM 2031 DS4A
2031 DS4B
AM Peak 35500 41200 39300 39300
% diff from 2031 DM -5% -5%
PM Peak 32000 38300 36600 36500
% diff from 2031 DM -5% -5%
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4.3 Mode Share
4.3.1 A mode choice process has been adopted to determine the proportion of trips made by car,
bus or rail, which can provide an indication of the net impact of changes to public transport,
travel costs and highway infrastructure.
4.3.2 Mode choice is applied to home based trips on the assumption that these trips are most
likely to have the opportunity for modal shift. Trips for employers business and non-home
based purposes are considered to be less likely to change mode.
4.3.3 The choice of mode of travel, by car, rail or bus, is calculated within the model based upon a
logit model and the generalised cost of travel for each mode. Travel costs are derived from
car parking costs, vehicle operating costs, perceived travel time, bus fares and rail fares. The
attraction of bus and rail is also dependant on the origin and destination of trips, the
accessibility of public transport at each end of the journey, service provision and the level of
delay experienced by drivers. The model does not take into account issues around bus or rail
capacity.
4.3.4 For the DM models the parking costs, fares and vehicle operating cost remain unchanged
from those used for the 2014 model. For the DS4A and DS4B models the parking costs are
increased to reflect the transport strategy aspirations, but the other costs remain as for
2014.
4.3.5 The initial forecast travel demand by public transport is established from the base matrices,
development trips and TEMPRO. The mode choice process takes into account local levels of
car availability.
4.3.6 The DM scenario demonstrates minimal change in mode share compared with the 2014
model. The DS4A and DS4B scenarios indicate a reduced car mode share and an increase in
bus mode share; reflecting the increase in town centre parking costs.
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Table 4-5 Mode Share
AM Peak 2014 2031 DM 2031 DS4A 2031 DS4B
Cars (all purposes) 80% 80% 75% 75%
Bus 11% 11% 16% 16%
Rail 9% 9% 9% 9%
PM Peak 2014 2031 DM 2031 DS4A 2031 DS4B
Cars (all purposes) 84% 85% 81% 81%
Bus 8% 7% 11% 11%
Rail 8% 8% 8% 8%
4.4 Park & Ride
4.4.1 Park & Ride trips account for approximately 0.7% of vehicle trips in the 2014 model, which
included 3 Park & Ride sites operating at that time. The DM scenario includes only two Park
& Ride sites, higher levels of travel demand and consequently an increase in travel time and
cost. The net result is an increase in Park & Ride trips to 1.4% of vehicle movements. The
raised car parking costs in the town for the Do Something scenarios accounts for the
increase in Park & Ride trips to 2.7% of vehicle movements.
Table 4-6 Park & Ride - % of Vehicle Trips
2014 2031 DM 2031 DS4A 2031 DS4B
AM Peak 0.74% 1.37% 2.70% 2.70%
PM Peak 0.76% 1.37% 2.69% 2.70%
4.5 Highway Network Performance
4.5.1 The highway network performance of the forecast models has been assessed using key
indicators as follows:
Total vehicle distance travelled (vehicle kilometres);
Total travel time (vehicle hours);
Average network speed (kph).
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4.5.2 The total vehicle kilometres travelled and total vehicle hours recorded on the network, in
relation to the number of trips made, provide an indication of the level of efficiency of the
network. Higher vehicle kilometres indicate that people have to travel further or take longer
routes to reach their destination. Higher vehicle hours indicate that people are taking longer
to travel to their destinations suggesting a more congested network. The average network
speed is based on the total travel time and travel distance metrics. In an ideal situation the
most efficient network would carry a higher total travel demand but accumulate a lower total
vehicle kilometres and vehicle hours.
4.5.3 Network performance has been considered across two sets of data representing:
The full highway network (Figure 4-1);
The highway network modelled in detail within the urban area of Maidstone and also
including the M20, junctions 5 to 8 (Figure 4-2).
Details of highway network performance are included in Appendix F.
Key points:
The 2014 AM peak has a higher level of travel demand than the PM peak at the outset
by around 3400 vehicles per hour. The difference between the AM and PM peak for the
Do Minimum scenario is reduced to 2800.
Across the full network the AM and PM DM scenarios show an increase in total travel
time of around 20% and travel distance of between 9% and 12%, compared to 2014.
Across the urban area, including the M20 between junctions 5 and 8, the impact of
increased demand is more marked in the PM peak. Travel time and distance increase
by up to 39% and 19% respectively in the DM scenario.
The DS4B scenario shows the impact of the transport strategy constraining the
potential growth in travel time and distance indicated by the DM scenario.
The DS4A scenario demonstrates the impact of the Leeds/ Langley bypass, with
reduced travel times and average speeds, but increased travel distance within the
urban area of Maidstone and adjacent M20.
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Figure 4-1 Network Performance – Full Network
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Figure 4-2 Network Performance – Maidstone Urban Area & M20
4.5.4 The transport strategy included in the Do Something scenarios reduces vehicle travel
demand as a consequence of the assumptions around walking and cycling and car parking
costs. The reduced demand together with the infrastructure changes contribute to the
reduction in travel time and distance across the network.
Key points to note are as follows:
The Transport Strategy reduces vehicle hours compared with the DM scenario by 7-
8%;
The Transport Strategy reduces vehicle kilometres compared with the DM scenario by
3-5%;
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The Transport Strategy increases average network speed by 4-5% compared with the
DM scenario;
The addition of the Leeds/Langley Bypass (DS4A) results in a larger reduction in vehicle
hours (1-2%) compared with scenario DS4B;
The addition of the Leeds/Langley Bypass (DS4A) results in a smaller reduction in vkm
(2%) in the AM peak and a small increase in the PM peak (0.5%) compared with
scenario DS4B. This suggests generally longer distances are travelled but more quickly.
4.6 Public Transport
4.6.1 The Public Transport model includes a reasonable representation of current bus stops and
routes; and proposed additional routes for the DS4A and DS4B models. The bus and rail
assignments operate on a timetable basis and make no allowance for bus or train capacity.
Bus timetables have not been adjusted to reflect forecast travel times on the network for the
2031 models. It is assumed that the future management of services would be adjusted over
time to meet to limitations of the network.
4.6.2 The bus and rail assignments are based on the following criteria:
Maximum walk time 25 minutes;
Maximum number of transfers = 5; and
Search time less than 1.5* journey time plus 10 minutes.
4.6.3 Table 4-7 provides a summary of the impact of the transport strategy included in DS4A and
DS4B on bus travel time and travel distance. The key points to note are:
The mean journey time is reduced for the Do Something scenarios as there are more
frequent services available and a new service included, reducing wait and walk time;
The mean journey distance is reduced as the new service(s) provide improved access;
The total journey time increases in the AM peak as a consequence of the net impact of
more people travelling outweighing the benefit gained from reduced individual journey
times; and
Total journey time decreases in the PM peak as a result of the reduced mean journey
time and a smaller increase in people transferring to the bus.
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Table 4-7 Summary of Bus Travel Characteristics
AM Peak PM Peak
% diff from DM DS4A DS4B DS4A DS4B
Mean journey time -20.6% -20.6% -21.1% -21.0%
Mean journey distance -7.7% -7.9% -8.6% -8.6%
Total journey time 16.4% 16.3% -22.7% -22.4%
Total journey distance 35.2% 35.1% -10.5% -10.2%
Trips unlinked 49.5% 49.6% -1.1% -0.7%
4.7 Link Flows
4.7.1 Representative link flows on key routes have been selected to provide an indication of the
level of impact on different parts of the network. The locations of the links used are shown in
Figure 4-3 below.
Figure 4-3 Location of Link Flows
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4.7.2 The two way flows, summarised in Figure 4-4 and Figure 4-5, provide an indication of the
potential level of flows that might arise from a Do Minimum situation and the expected
impact of the transport interventions included in the Do Something scenarios.
Figure 4-4 AM Peak – Two Way Flows
Figure 4-5 PM Peak – Two Way Flows
4.7.3 Transport interventions included in the Do Something scenarios to reduce demand for travel
by car are reflected in the general reduction in flows compared with the Do Minimum on a
number of links. However, highway infrastructure changes, around the junction of the A249
with Bearsted Road and with the M20 junction 7, result in increased flows on the A249, New
Cut and Willington Street.
4.7.4 The inclusion of the Leeds Langley Bypass in DS4A has a clear impact on the B2163 Lower
Street and on the Spur Road approach to the M20 at Junction 8; and a smaller impact on the
A229, A274 and A249 routes.
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4.8 Junction Delay
In an urban setting the effective junction performance is a major contributor to perceived
delay for drivers. Figure 4-6 provides an indication of the number of junctions experiencing
peak hour delay and the severity of delay for each of the modelled scenarios. The DM scenario
generates significantly more delay than the 2014 base models. For the AM peak Do
Something scenarios the number of nodes with delays between 1 and 2 minutes remains
similar to the Do Minimum. However the Do Something strategy is more effective in reducing
the number of nodes with longer delays and appears more effective in moderating junction
delay in the PM peak than the AM peak.
Figure 4-6 Mean Node Delay
4.8.1 The performance of junctions can be described by the ‘Level of Service’ (LOS) which is
determined for each node based on the mean delay recorded. The criteria used for the LOS
for different junction types is defined in Appendix G. Figure 4-7 to Figure 4-9 provide an
indication of the junction LOS for the 2031 DM, 2031 DS4A and 2031 DS4B AM peaks. The
AM peak only is shown as this represents the period of heaviest demand on the network. It
should be noted that these figures can only provide a broad indication of the network
performance as many of the key junctions are modelled as multiple nodes which may not all
be displayed.
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Figure 4-7 Level Of Service – 2031 DM AM Peak
Figure 4-8 Level Of Service – 2031 DS4A AM Peak
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Figure 4-9 Level Of Service – 2031 DS4B AM Peak
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4.8.2 The LOS plots provide an indication of a location of ‘congestion hotspots’ across the
Maidstone network where key junctions are under pressure. The level of demand and an
indication of delay for selected congested junctions has been summarised in Figure 4-10 and
Figure 4-11.
4.8.3 As many of these key junctions comprise of a combination of multiple modelled nodes, data
has been extracted to reflect the performance of these junctions as a whole. Junction inflow
provides an indication of the volume of traffic demand whilst the sum of the mean delay
provides an indication of the overall performance of the junctions. It is important to note
that the junction delay includes all arms of the junction and not just the main through
routes.
Figure 4-10 AM Peak –Junction Inflow and Sum of Delay
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Figure 4-11 PM Peak – Junction Inflow and Sum of Delay
The key points to note from the above figures are as follows:
The A249 junctions, Bridges Gyratory, A229/Springfield and A20/Coldharbour Lane
junctions are anticipated to observe the largest volumes of peak hour traffic;
The nodes with the higher levels of inflow are not necessarily those presenting the
higher level of delay;
The A229/Springfield and A20/ Coldharbour Lane junctions come under the most
pressure in the DM scenario;
The highway improvements around the A249 and Bearsted Road, which are
incorporated in the Do Something scenarios, have an impact on traffic routing. As a
consequence the A249 junctions appear to be under increased pressure.
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4.9 Trip Distance
4.9.1 Table 4-8 provides a broad summary of the distance travelled to work for the different model
scenarios in the AM peak, and is also illustrated in Figure 4-12. The largest proportion of
vehicles travelled 20 to 30 km to work in 2014 while for all the forecast models the largest
proportion are anticipated to travel 10 to 20 km to work.
4.9.2 Many of the radial routes in Maidstone converge on the Bridges Gyratory which is currently
recognised a focal point of congestion and delay. The inclusion of the Bridges Gyratory
Scheme in all the forecast models may account for a change in route choice and
consequently travel distance.
4.9.3 The lower proportion of trips of under 5km for the Do Something scenarios, compared with
the Do Minimum, reflects the manual adjustment made to account for the expected increase
in walking and cycling trips.
4.9.4 The inclusion of the Leeds/Langley bypass in DS4A attracts traffic to the new route and also
secondary re-routing across the network in response. The most noticeable effect of this is an
increase in the proportion of HBW trips of 30 to 40km and smaller changes to trips of various
lengths.
Table 4-8 AM Peak – HBW Vehicle Trips (%)
Travel Distance 2014 2031 DM 2031 DS4A 2031 DS4B
Less than 2km 8% 8% 6.9% 6.9%
2km to less than 5km 10% 12% 9.0% 9.0%
5km to less than 10km 10% 15% 14.0% 14.1%
10km to less than 20km 15% 25% 25.5% 25.6%
20km to less than 30km 21% 10% 11.3% 11.7%
30km to less than 40km 11% 7% 8.9% 8.0%
40km to less than 60km 12% 10% 10.7% 10.8%
60km and over 13% 13% 13.7% 14.0%
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Figure 4-12 AM Peak – HBW Vehicle Trips (%)
4.10 Journey Times
4.10.1 Journey times have been extracted for selected routes to provide some insight into the
impact of different scenarios on specific key corridors within Maidstone. The journey time
routes used are shown in Figure 4-13 below and are listed in Table 4-9.
4.10.2 The routes area all less than 5km and the average modelled speed ranges from 20 to 37 kph
(12 to 23mph) for the 2014 Base models. The DM scenario results in speeds ranging from 16
to 32 kph (10 to 20mph) and the DS4A and DS4B model speeds range from 18 to 35kph (11
to 22mph).
4.10.3 The route corridors are already under pressure in the peak periods, operating at the
maximum capacity of their links and junctions, which is reflected in the current average
speeds of between 12 and 23mph.
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Figure 4-13 Journey Time Routes
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Table 4-9 Average Speed on Journey Time Routes (kph)
JT Route 2014 DM DS4A DS4B
AM Peak In Out In Out In Out In Out
1 A20 Ashford Road 28 37 25 32 31 33 30 31
2 A274 Sutton Road 23 29 20 24 23 26 21 24
3 A229 Loose Road 20 25 16 19 20 21 18 19
4 B2010 Farleigh Hill 31 24 30 21 30 22 30 21
5 A26 Tonbridge Road 27 29 26 29 26 29 26 29
6 A20 London Rd 23 24 23 21 25 23 25 22
7 A229 Royal Engineers Way
26 33 25 22 31 25 30 23
8 A249 Sittingbourne Rd 26 23 24 21 25 23 24 23
PM Peak In Out In Out In Out In Out
1 A20 Ashford Road 33 35 29 30 30 35 29 35
2 A274 Sutton Road 26 27 22 23 23 25 22 24
3 A229 Loose Road 29 22 20 16 24 18 22 17
4 B2010 Farleigh Hill 32 25 31 16 31 20 31 18
5 A26 Tonbridge Road 27 30 28 29 26 29 26 29
6 A20 London Rd 24 27 26 25 25 26 25 26
7 A229 Royal Engineers Way
32 28 23 18 32 19 31 18
8 A249 Sittingbourne Rd 30 25 28 23 24 25 23 24
4.10.4 The additional demand generated for the forecast scenarios does not necessarily appear as
significant increases in traffic flows or travel times on the main route corridors analysed. The
model, as would the average driver, seeks out alternative routes, which may be longer in
distance, but quicker using more minor roads. The result is a dampening effect on the
representative model results in terms of traffic flows and journey times.
4.10.5 Figure 4-14 and Figure 4-15 show the travel times on the selected routes for the 2031
Forecast models. Journey time profiles for each route for 2014, DM, DS4A and DS4B are
included in Appendix H.
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Figure 4-14 AM Peak – Travel Times
Figure 4-15 PM Peak – Travel Times
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4.11 Leeds / Langley Bypass
4.11.1 The only difference between the two Do Something models is the inclusion of a Leeds /
Langley bypass route in DS4A. The Leeds / Langley Route modelled links the A20 and A274
corridors, passing to the west of Leeds and to the east of Langley Heath. In the design
process for such a scheme there would be careful consideration around the junction layout,
especially at the interface with the existing road network. In the absence of detailed scheme
information the route is based on very broad assumptions around alignment, junction
arrangements and route standard. Consequently the output from the DS4A model can only
be treated as broadly indicative of the use of the new route and of the potential impact on
the rest of the network.
4.11.2 The DS4A scenario indicates that the new route would carry between 2100 and 2400
vehicles per hour in the AM and PM peak respectively, attracting traffic travelling between
the southeast of the town and the M20 corridor and A249/A229 routes. Figure 4-16 and
Figure 4-17 indicate the routes taken by traffic using the new link.
Figure 4-16 AM Peak
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Figure 4-17 PM Peak
4.11.3 Traffic is drawn to the new route from adjacent roads, but also results in a secondary shift in
the traffic patterns across the network as congestion pressures change. Figure 4-18 and
Figure 4-19 provide an indication of the potential net impact of the Leeds / Langley bypass
on the wider highway network.
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Figure 4-18 AM Peak – Flow Difference with Leeds / Langley
Figure 4-19 PM Peak – Flow Difference with Leeds / Langley
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5 Summary
5.1.1 The baseline level of vehicle demand is higher in the AM peak than the PM peak. Forecast
travel demand is set to increase by 18 – 19% over baseline levels, which equates to an
additional 5700 to 6300 vehicles in 2031 DM scenario. The transport strategy is designed to
manage travel demand with the potential to reduce vehicle demand by approximately 5%.
5.1.2 The main route corridors in/out of Maidstone are already operating under pressure, limited
by the capacity of links and junctions. This is reflected in 2014 baseline average peak hour
speeds of between 20 and 37kph (12 to 23 mph) on key routes.
5.1.3 The additional forecast traffic is not necessarily reflected in a significant increase in flows or
travel times on routes, which are already overloaded as motorists will seek out alternative
longer but quicker routes, often on minor roads. This has a dampening effect on the usual
model output in the form of traffic flows, travel times, speeds etc. on key routes. The overall
impact is reflected in increases in travel distances, and increases in traffic on minor routes.
5.1.4 The Bridges Gyratory at centre of town is at the confluence of most of the radial routes
where the river crossings are a significant pinch point of the network. All the forecast models
(DM and DS) include the Bridges Gyratory Scheme which has a significant impact on route
choice.
5.1.5 The interface of the local road network and the M20 strategic network is important to the
operation of roads through the town. Changes in traffic pressure at any of the motorway
intersections can generate a shift in traffic movements around the northern parts of
Maidstone.
5.1.6 The Do Something models include a significant change to the highway network at the M20
J7 and Bearsted Road junctions and improvements to the junction of the A20 with the link to
the M20 J5 at Coldharbour Lane. These improvements were modelled based on information
regarding junction layout, design and signal operation as available at the time. Consequently
the modelled outcome at these junctions can only be viewed as indicative at this stage.
5.1.7 The M20 J7 improvements combined with the Bearsted Road improvements appear to have
the most significant impact on the highway network, route choice etc. This is reflected in the
volume of traffic moving through the junction, especially in the AM peak.
5.1.8 The PM peak travel demand is lower than in the AM peak at 2014 baseline levels but the
differential decreases in the forecast models. The PM models show a stronger response to
the additional travel demand in the Do Minimum scenario.
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Appendix A 2014 Model Output Summary
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Summary of model link flows (Maidstone links only)
AM Peak PM Peak
Number of sites 58 58
Total meeting GEH criteria 44 39
Total meeting flow criteria 42 40
Total meeting GEH and/or flow criteria 45 42
% meeting GEH and/or flow criteria 78% 72%
Summary of model link flows (including M20 traffic)
AM Peak PM Peak
Number of sites 83 83
Total meeting GEH criteria 58 57
Total meeting flow criteria 57 56
Total meeting GEH and/or flow criteria 63 61
% meeting GEH and/or flow criteria 76% 73%
Note:
The model flows have been compared with available data from a variety of sources. The data has been recorded for different purposes, at different times of
the year, and in some cases appears to be recorded as pcus and in others as vehicles. The M20 flows are reported separately. Some through movements on
the M20 and slip roads have been manually adjusted to give a reasonable representation of flows on the motorway. These movements have no connection
with the Maidstone area.
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AM Peak Journey Time
Route Ref Route Description Direction Journey time in seconds
Difference (%) DMRB Criteria Modelled Observed Difference
A A20 Ashford Road W In 627 658 31 -5% pass
E Out 493 528 35 -7% pass
B A274 Sutton Road NW In 736 720 -16 2% pass
SE Out 600 540 -60 11% pass
C A229 Loose Road N In 557 499 -58 12% pass
S Out 455 435 -20 4% pass
D B2010 Farleigh Hill / Tovil Hill
NE In 166 170 4 -2% pass
SW Out 208 195 -13 7% pass
E A26 Tonbridge Road E In 447 486 39 -8% pass
W Out 387 390 3 -1% pass
F A20 London Road SE In 391 348 -43 12% pass
NW Out 377 324 -53 17% pass
G A229 Royal Engineers Way
S In 318 238** -80 34% fail
N Out 259 209 -50 24% pass
H A249 Sittingbourne Road
SW In 311 335 24 -7% pass
NE Out 351 261* -90 35% fail
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 7 - Issued: August 2016
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 8 - Issued: August 2016
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 9 - Issued: August 2016
PM Peak Journey Time
Route Ref Route Description Direction Journey time in seconds
Difference (%) DMRB Criteria Modelled Observed Difference
A A20 Ashford Road W In 545 630 85 -13% pass
E Out 521 601 80 -13% pass
B A274 Sutton Road NW In 671 650 -21 3% pass
SE Out 639 566 -73 13% pass
C A229 Loose Road N In 387 427 40 -9% pass
S Out 507 447 -60 13% pass
D B2010 Farleigh Hill / Tovil Hill NE In 161 145 -16 11% pass
SW Out 202 184 -18 10% pass
E A26 Tonbridge Road E In 445 424 -21 5% pass
W Out 379 338 -41 12% pass
F A20 London Road SE In 369 311 -58 19% pass
NW Out 333 305 -28 9% pass
G A229 Royal Engineers Way S In 259 236 -23 10% pass
N Out 308 328 20 -6% pass
H A249 Sittingbourne Road SW In 273 265 -8 3% pass
NE Out 331 303* -28 9% pass
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 10 - Issued: August 2016
Note:
The majority of observed times are from ANPR camera data. Where anomalies were identified alternative data has been used where available.
*A249 Sittingbourne Road - timing outbound is likely to be affected by Enterprise Park signals and revised layout at the Bearsted Road roundabout.
Additional data was collected during July for the PM as a sense check (as used in table above). The outbound model times remain longer than the July
observed times but fall within the normal criteria. No new data is available for AM peak outbound.
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 11 - Issued: August 2016
**A229 Royal Engineers Way – Anomalies were noted between modelled and ANPR journey times across the town centre. A limited number of travel times
were recorded in July for the radial route only, between the M20 slip roads and Earls Street signals. The PM timings indicated a reasonable match with
modelled data. The model AM timings were around 80 seconds longer than the recorded times in July. It would be reasonable to expect AM peak observed
travel times inbound on this route to be longer in the usual neutral months.
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 12 - Issued: August 2016
Appendix B Transport Strategy Specification
ITS Ref Transport Intervention
Proposed Description DM Modelling comment DS4A & DS4B Modelling comment
30 Bridges Gyratory New Northbound link to bypass the gyratory via the two
bridges.
New link included and lane allocation and signal
arrangements adjusted. New link included and lane allocation and signal
arrangements adjusted.
1
A20 / Coldharbour Lane
Junction
M20, Junction 5. This will include providing additional
capacity on the M20 link roads to Coldharbour
Roundabout; Coldharbour Roundabout itself; the 20/20
roundabout and the Hermitage Lane / London Road
junction
Not Modelled Junction capacity, lane allocation and signal
arrangement as per planning application TA.
1 A249 / Bearsted Rd
roundabout
A249 / Bearsted Road Roundabout. This includes capacity
improvements and provision of a pedestrian crossing at
Bearsted Roundabout
Not Modelled Signalised Junction at A249 / Bearsted Road.
1 Bearsted Rd / New Cut
junction
Bearsted Road / New Cut Road Roundabout. This includes
capacity improvements and an enlargement of the
roundabout
Not Modelled Signalised Junction at Bearsted Road / New Cut.
1 Dual carriageway between
A249 and New Cut junctions
Bearsted Road, between Bearsted Roundabout and New
Cut Road Roundabout. This includes the upgrading of the
road to a dual carriageway in both directions
Not Modelled Dual Carriageway between junctions includes
changed link capacity and lane provision.
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 13 - Issued: August 2016
ITS Ref Transport Intervention
Proposed Description DM Modelling comment DS4A & DS4B Modelling comment
1 A20 Ashford Road /
Willington Street
A20 Ashford Rd / Willington Street junction. This includes a
widening of the left turning movement from Ashford Road
into Willington Street.
Not Modelled Junction Capacity and signal improvements,
through adjusting the signals. Signal arrangement
from planning application TA.
A229/A274 Wheatsheaf
Junction.
Close exit to Cranbourne Avenue, Adjusting turning
movements and signal adjustment. Not Modelled
Exit from Wheatsheaf junction to Cranbourne
Avenue closed. Signals and lane allocations
adjusted.
1 A274 / Willington Street
Junctions
Willington St / Sutton Rd junction. This includes a widening
of the approaches from Willington St to create an
additional left turning lane into A274 Sutton Road and
provision for entry into a new bus lane.
Not Modelled
Junction capacity improvements through changed
lane provisions and signal adjustment.
A274 / Wallis Avenue
Junction.
Junction Capacity improvements, through lane provision
and signal changes. Not Modelled
Lane allocation and signal arrangement adjusted
as per Planning application TA.
1
A26 Fountain Lane Junction
Queens Rd / St Andrews Rd / Tonbridge Rd / Fountain Lane
junctions. This includes an opening up of the eastern end
of St Andrews Road onto the Queens Road / Tonbridge
Road junction. The direction of traffic between each of
these junctions would be made one way in a clockwise
direction.
Not Modelled
Reconfiguration of network around St Andrews
Road not modelled.
Improvements to signal arrangements included in
the model as per planning application TA.
1
M20 Junction 7
improvements
M20, Junction 7 updates. This includes converting the M20
eastbound approach and the two A249 approaches to the
roundabout to traffic signals, whilst leaving the M20
westbound approach as a give way; to prevent traffic
tailing back on to the motorway during peak periods. In
addition, road markings will be rearranged to improve
visibility on the roundabout
Not Modelled Signal arrangement and junction layout from the
planning application for Newnham Court.
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 14 - Issued: August 2016
ITS Ref Transport Intervention
Proposed Description DM Modelling comment DS4A & DS4B Modelling comment
1 New Cut / A20 left turn slip
Constructing bus priority measures on New Cut Road.
Not Modelled Junction layout reconfigured to reflect Bus
priority lane. Bus priority not modelled
specifically
1 Hermitage Lane pedestrian
signals
Hermitage Lane in the vicinity of Barming Rail Station. This
would include a new pedestrian crossing near the vehicle
access to the rail station. To accommodate this, there will
be a requirement to reorganise the existing bus stop layout
Not Modelled New pedestrian signals included near to Barming
Station.
1 New link between Gore
Court Rd and Bicknor Wood
Constructing a new access road between Gore Court Road
and Bicknor Wood to provide sufficient access to the new
strategic site north of Bicknor Wood.
Not Modelled Not Modelled
1 Widening of Gore Court
Road Not Modelled Not Modelled
Leeds / Langley Bypass Not Modelled NB: DS4A ONLY
Route west of Leeds and east of Langley
5
PR Fare
Change PR fare structure to pay-to-park rather than pay-to-
ride. £3 per vehicle should be assumed
As with most other P&R schemes, cars should pay to park
and catch the bus for free.
£3 per vehicle should be assumed.
Not Modelled
PR cost (as fare or parking charge) included in PR
mode choice process.
PR cost (previously £2.50) adjusted to £3.00
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 15 - Issued: August 2016
ITS Ref Transport Intervention
Proposed Description DM Modelling comment DS4A & DS4B Modelling comment
New PR service from Linton corner
New Park & Ride service from Linton Crossroads to
Maidstone town centre.
Running non-stop along Loose Road (A229) and terminating
at High Street/King Street.
Assume a 15-min frequency from all sites, and capacities of
20% higher than now. Services to run 4 per hour until 9pm
Monday to Friday and 3 per hour all weekend (until 6pm on
Sundays).
Not Modelled Not modelled
17 Existing PR bus services Maintain existing P&R* Sittingbourne Rd P&R site removed Sittingbourne Rd P&R site removed
Improve existing P&R
Increase patronage of existing Park & Ride sites by increasing
capacity, improving the offering, changing fare structure,
running later into the evening, live departure screens at bus
stops.
Assume a 15-min frequency from all sites, and capacities of
20% higher than now. Services to run 4 per hour until 9pm
Monday to Friday and 3 per hour all weekend (until 6pm on
Sundays).
All P&R services are at 15 minute intervals.
P&R site capacity is not reflected in the model.
Peak periods modelled only.
Effectively no change.
All P&R services are at 15 minute intervals.
P&R site capacity is not reflected in the model.
Peak periods modelled only.
Effectively no change.
12 Subsidised shuttle bus between M20 J7 and town centre.
Subsidised shuttle bus between M20 J7 and town centre. Not Modelled
To run every 20 minutes from Notcutts, down
New Cut road, along A20 to the bus station -
where it can turn around and go back down Watt
Tyler way and along the A20 back to Notcutts.
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 16 - Issued: August 2016
ITS Ref Transport Intervention
Proposed Description DM Modelling comment DS4A & DS4B Modelling comment
16
Public bus service improvements.
A regular bus service along all of Maidstone’s key radial
roads (7-minute frequencies on main radial routes into the
town centre between 7am and 7pm).
Not Modelled
Bus services on main radial routes into the town
centre increased to 10 minute frequencies.
27 Romney Place bus lane
Bus Only Lane turning left onto Romney Place from Lower
Stone Street. Not Modelled Not modelled
NW Bus Loop. Circular bus route to hospital
Circular Bus route connecting the town centre - Hermitage
Lane - Hospital - Howard Drive - London Road.
From the east of Hermitage Lane site a bus only route will
be built from the site linking onto Howard Drive which will
create the loop route for the buses to use. Frequency:
every 15 minutes. Stopping Pattern: all stops on route and
one on Howards Way.
Not Modelled Not modelled
Bus Only northbound lane on
A274.
Bus Only northbound lane on A274 Sutton Road from
Willington Street to the Wheatsheaf. Not Modelled Not modelled
23 Maintain and promote KCC’s car sharing website
Assume car sharing increases by 5% of overall mode share
into Maidstone town centre by 2031. No change to base car occupancy No change to base car occupancy
7 Increase long stay parking
tariffs on council owned sites
above inflation. 50% increase in real terms above inflation. Not Modelled
Car park cost per zone (representing balance of
long stay and short stay) is included in the mode
choice model.
Parking cost increase weighted to reflect
proportion of long and short stay parking.
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 17 - Issued: August 2016
ITS Ref Transport Intervention
Proposed Description DM Modelling comment DS4A & DS4B Modelling comment
8 Increase short stay parking
tariffs on council owned sites
above inflation. 50% increase in real terms above inflation. Not Modelled
Car park cost per zone (representing balance of
long stay and short stay) is included in the mode
choice model.
Parking cost increase weighted to reflect
proportion of long and short stay parking.
Walking Mode Share.
An 8.5% increase of walking mode share over 2014 base year
(0.5% per year). Not Modelled A reduction in HBW and HBO car trips of <5km in
the urban area of Maidstone used as a proxy for
the increase in walking and cycling mode share
that is aspired to.
(6% of HBW & HBO of less than 5km)
Cycle Mode Share (by implementing the cycle strategy).
An 8.5% increase in cycling mode share over 2014 base (0.5%
per year). Not Modelled
* Sittingbourne Road Park & Ride Site discontinued 2015
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 18 - Issued: August 2016
A 1 Highway Improvements Modelled
Highway Improvement Description Summary of changes made within the
model
References / sources
Bridges Gyratory
New northbound link to
bypass the gyratory via
the two bridges
New links
Junctions amended
Signal adjustment
Maidstone Bridges Gyratory plan 4300066-000-02
Rev0
A20 / Coldharbour Lane
Junction
Junction Capacity and
signals
Lane provision and capacity
Signals
A20 London Rd / Coldharbour Roundabout plan
20069/S/1
Bearsted Road Roundabouts
A249 / Bearsted Rd
junction
Bearsted Road / New
Cut junction
Dual carriageway
between the junctions
Signalised junctions
Link capacity and lane provision
Newnham 13_1931-
ENVIRONMENTAL_STATEMENT_-
_VOL2_APPENDIX_7.1G_TRANSPORT_ASSESSMEN
T_STRATEGIC_DRAW_RETAIL_TRIP_DISTRIBUTIO
N-1802069
Newnham 13_1931-
ENVIRONMENTAL_STATEMENT_-
_VOL2_APPENDIX_7.1H_TRANSPORT_ASSESSMEN
T_BEARSTED_ROAD_ROUNDABOUT_TRAFFIC_CAP
ACITY_MODEL_OUTPUTS-1802070
Developer plan T0115/H/05
Developer plan T0115/H/04
A20 Ashford Road /
Willington Street Junction
Junction capacity and
signals
Signals adjustment
Developer plan 15136-01
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 19 - Issued: August 2016
A229 / A274 Wheatsheaf
Junction
Close exit to Cranbourne
Avenue
Closed exit from junction to Cranbourne
Avenue
Adjust turning movements
Signal adjustment
No details available
A274 / Willington Street
Junctions
Junction capacity
improvement
Lane provision
Signal adjustment
Developer plan ITL7088-SK-015
A274 / Wallis Avenue
Junction
Junction capacity
improvement
Lane provision
Signal adjustment
Developer plan ITL7088-SK-015
A26 Fountain Lane Junction To accommodate right
turn vehicles within the
junction
Minor change to junction arrangement A26 Tunbridge Rd / Fountain Lane plan 11/0444
Developer plan T0289/12
Hermitage Lane pedestrian
signals
New pedestrian signals
near vehicle access to
Barming Station
Signal arrangement W of Herm 13_1702-TA_App_J-K.pdf-1801012
W of Herm 13_1702-TA_App_L-M.pdf-1801013
Developer plan T0289-08
Leeds Langley Relief Road
(DS4A only)
New route linking the
A274 and the A20
passing west of Leeds
and east of Langley
Heath
Based on annotated plan provided.
New route assumed to be single
carriageway terminating at roundabouts.
Broad assumptions about junction
arrangements.
LL bypass Annotated Plan 21-4-15
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 20 - Issued: August 2016
Appendix C TRICS Trip Rates
People
Land Use Parameter Code Dep Arr Total Dep Arr Total
Flats Privately Owned Household F1 0.24 0.08 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mixed Private Non private Housing Household M1 0.54 0.15 0.69 0.01 0.00 0.01
Houses Privately Owned Household H1 0.76 0.23 0.98 0.00 0.00 0.01
Houses Rural Service Centres Household H2 0.84 0.23 1.07 0.00 0.00 0.00
Residential mixed (estimated) Household M2 0.52 0.15 0.67 0.01 0.00 0.01
Out of Centre Convenience 100 sqm GFA A1a 4.55 6.12 9.51 0.03 0.03 0.06
Town Centre Convenience 100 sqm GFA A1b 6.12 4.55 6.92 0.04 0.01 0.05
Aldi 100 sqm GFA A1c 0.09 0.93 1.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Comparison Shopping * 100 sqm GFA A1d
DIY with Garden Centre 100 sqm GFA A1e 0.45 0.76 1.16 0.11 0.15 0.25
Town Centre Offices 100 sqm GFA B1a+b 0.11 2.10 2.21 0.00 0.00 0.01
Out of Centre B1 (>10000) 100 sqm GFA B1c 0.47 2.48 2.95 0.01 0.02 0.04
Out of Centre B1 (<6000) 100 sqm GFA B1d 0.40 2.54 2.93 0.06 0.08 0.14
B2 Southern Industrial Estates 100 sqm GFA B2 0.38 0.80 1.18 0.06 0.02 0.08
B8 Warehousing 100 sqm GFA B8 0.40 0.85 1.25 0.09 0.09 0.17
Mixed B1c, B2 and B8 100 sqm GFA Bm 0.39 1.16 1.55 0.07 0.05 0.12
Early Years 1 Pupil En 0.03 0.29 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00
Primary Education 1 Pupil Ep 0.02 0.84 0.86 0.00 0.00 0.00
Secondary Education co-located with Sports Centre 1 Pupil Es 0.01 0.76 0.78 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dentist 1 Employee De 0.12 1.04 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.00
GP 1 Doctor Dg 2.17 6.53 8.70 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vehicles OGVs
Land Use Parameter Dep Arr Total Arr Dep Total
Comparison Shopping (Neighbourhood Centre) 100 sqm GFA A1f 0.26 0.56 0.82 0.01 0.01 0.02
Vehicles
OGVs
AM Peak (0800-0900)
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 21 - Issued: August 2016
PM Peak (1700-1800)
People OGVs
Land Use Parameter Code Dep Arr Total Arr Dep Total
Flats Privately Owned Household F1 0.10 0.19 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mixed Private Non private Housing Household M1 0.28 0.49 0.77 0.01 0.00 0.01
Houses Privately Owned Household H1 0.38 0.60 0.98 0.00 0.00 0.00
Houses Rural Service Centres Household H2 0.30 0.57 0.87 0.00 0.00 0.00
Residential mixed (estimated) Household M2
Out of Centre Convenience 100 sqm GFA A1a 8.14 8.02 23.11 0.00 0.00 0.01
Town Centre Convenience 100 sqm GFA A1b 9.12 10.09 28.51 0.02 0.00 0.02
Aldi 100 sqm GFA A1c 4.10 4.06 8.16 0.00 0.00 0.00
Comparison Shopping * 100 sqm GFA A1d
DIY with Garden Centre 100 sqm GFA A1e 1.77 1.30 5.73 0.00 0.00 0.00
Town Centre Offices 100 sqm GFA B1a+b 1.23 0.12 1.35 0.00 0.00 0.00
Out of Centre B1 (>10000) 100 sqm GFA B1c 2.45 0.02 2.95 0.01 0.02 0.03
Out of Centre B1 (<6000) 100 sqm GFA B1d 1.68 0.21 1.89 0.03 0.01 0.04
B2 Southern Industrial Estates 100 sqm GFA B2 0.78 0.20 0.98 0.02 0.03 0.05
B8 Warehousing 100 sqm GFA B8 0.69 0.11 0.80 0.01 0.03 0.04
Mixed B1c, B2 and B8 100 sqm GFA Bm 0.93 0.17 1.10 0.02 0.03 0.05
Early Years 1 Pupil En 0.31 0.00 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00
Primary Education 1 Pupil Ep 0.06 0.01 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00
Secondary Education co-located with Sports Centre 1 Pupil Es 0.07 0.01 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dentist 1 Employee De 1.65 0.08 1.73 0.00 0.00 0.00
GP 1 Doctor Dg 8.89 6.87 15.76 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vehicles Vehicles OGVs
Land Use Parameter Dep Arr Total Arr Dep Total
Comparison Shopping (Neighbourhood Centre) 100 sqm GFA A1f 1.44 1.31 2.75 0.01 0.00 0.01
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 22 - Issued: August 2016
Appendix D Housing and Commercial Development
Allocation
DM & DS4A & DS4B Development Summary
Source of Supply#
Housing Allocation
(DM & DS4A & DS4B)
completions 2011 to 2015 2341
Extant Planning consents (net) 4172
Local Plan allocations with resolution to grant consent subject to
S106 2076
Local Plan allocations approved for inclusion in the R19 Local Plan 3660
Local Plan allocations subject to R18 consultation 1337
Local Plan Broad Allocations 3500
Windfall allowance 1026
Shortfall 448
TOTAL 18560
#Data supplied by MBC October 2015
Local Plan Employment Sites
(DM & DS4A & D4B) #
Location Use Class m2
Mote Road, Maidstone B1a 8000
South of Claygate, Pattenden Lane, Marden B1/B2/B8 6800
W of Wheelbarrow Industrial Estate, Pattenden Lane, Marden B2/B8 14500
W of Barradale Farm, Maidstone Road, Headcorn B1b & c/B2/B8 5500
Woodcut Farm, Hollingbourne B1a & c/B2/B8 49000
#Data supplied by MBC October 2015
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 23 - Issued: August 2016
Local Plan Mixed Use Sites
(DM & DS4A & DS4B) #
Location Use Class m2
Newham Court, Bearsted Road, Maidstone A1e 700
Newham Court, Bearsted Road, Maidstone C2 75000
Newham Court, Bearsted Road, Maidstone C2 25000
Maidstone East and Maidstone Sorting Office, Sandling Road A1/A1e 10000
King Street car park and former AMF Bowling site, Maidstone A1 1400
Clockhouse Farm, Heath Road, Coxheath B1 7700
Former Syngenta works, Hampstead Lane, Yalding B1/B2 8600
#Data supplied by MBC October 2015
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 24 - Issued: August 2016
Appendix E TEMPRO Data
HBO includes: NHBO includes:
HB Shopping NHB Employers Business
HB Personal Business NHB Education
HB Recreational/Social NHB Shopping
HB Visiting Friends or Relatives NHB Personal Business
NHB Recreation/Social
NB: Average of origin and destination growth by purpose and mode.
Maidstone Growth
AMPK Car Car Passenger Bus Passenger Rail Passenger
From - to EB HBW HBO NHBO EB HBW HBO NHBO EB HBW HBO NHBO EB HBW HBO NHBO
2008 - 2014 1.0378 1.0402 1.0986 1.0686 1.0351 1.0330 1.0647 1.0694 1.0269 1.0189 1.0579 1.0652 1.0222 1.0213 1.0932 1.0688
2008 - 2022 1.0724 1.0683 1.2067 1.1252 1.0632 1.0386 1.1453 1.1273 1.0367 1.0070 1.1413 1.1275 1.0387 1.0205 1.2014 1.1336
2008 - 2031 1.0878 1.0788 1.3247 1.1599 1.0762 1.0316 1.2049 1.1605 1.0388 0.9856 1.2482 1.1725 1.0428 1.0009 1.3224 1.1732
2014 - 2022 1.0333 1.0270 1.0978 1.0525 1.0271 1.0053 1.0753 1.0536 1.0095 0.9883 1.0781 1.0576 1.0162 0.9992 1.0977 1.0596
2014 - 2031 1.0481 1.0371 1.2048 1.0847 1.0398 0.9986 1.1311 1.0844 1.0117 0.9674 1.1786 1.0993 1.0202 0.9801 1.2076 1.0961
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 25 - Issued: August 2016
Maidstone Growth
PMPK Car Car Passenger Bus Passenger Rail Passenger
From - to EB HBW HBO NHBO EB HBW HBO NHBO EB HBW HBO NHBO EB HBW HBO NHBO
2008 - 2014 1.0405 1.0402 1.0820 1.0687 1.0389 1.0342 1.0646 1.0697 1.0256 1.0187 1.0582 1.0644 1.0258 1.0213 1.0833 1.0677
2008 - 2022 1.0760 1.0680 1.1669 1.1252 1.0675 1.0452 1.1357 1.1272 1.0285 1.0091 1.1331 1.1234 1.0383 1.0214 1.1772 1.1273
2008 - 2031 1.0939 1.0798 1.2525 1.1599 1.0829 1.0465 1.1874 1.1604 1.0247 0.9935 1.2248 1.1662 1.0396 1.0052 1.2762 1.1628
2014 - 2022 1.0341 1.0266 1.0779 1.0524 1.0275 1.0106 1.0664 1.0533 1.0029 0.9906 1.0700 1.0546 1.0121 1.0000 1.0852 1.0549
2014 - 2031 1.0512 1.0380 1.1567 1.0846 1.0423 1.0119 1.1147 1.0840 0.9992 0.9753 1.1561 1.0942 1.0134 0.9843 1.1755 1.0876
Maidstone Background Growth
AMPK Car Car Passenger Bus Passenger Rail Passenger
From - to EB HBW HBO NHBO EB HBW HBO NHBO EB HBW HBO NHBO EB HBW HBO NHBO
2008 - 2014 0.9837 0.9859 1.0372 1.0243 0.9810 0.9793 1.0083 1.0249 0.9724 0.9652 1.0010 1.0209 0.9617 0.9666 1.0346 1.0244
2008 - 2022 0.9752 0.9710 1.0832 1.0597 0.9661 0.9444 1.0379 1.0617 0.9392 0.9138 1.0318 1.0619 0.9217 0.9229 1.0869 1.0677
2008 - 2031 0.9652 0.9560 1.1441 1.1039 0.9529 0.9150 1.0611 1.1044 0.9136 0.8702 1.0941 1.1158 0.8792 0.8769 1.1606 1.1165
2014 - 2022 0.9905 0.9843 1.0431 1.0342 0.9843 0.9639 1.0285 1.0353 0.9656 0.9462 1.0294 1.0393 0.9581 0.9545 1.0486 1.0412
2014 - 2031 0.9795 0.9684 1.1007 1.0771 0.9704 0.9333 1.0506 1.0767 0.9390 0.9007 1.0903 1.0915 0.9137 0.9067 1.1180 1.0883
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 26 - Issued: August 2016
Maidstone Background Growth
PMPK Car Car Passenger Bus Passenger Rail Passenger
From - to EB HBW HBO NHBO EB HBW HBO NHBO EB HBW HBO NHBO EB HBW HBO NHBO
2008 - 2014 0.9865 0.9862 1.0218 1.0244 0.9849 0.9810 1.0090 1.0252 0.9710 0.9652 1.0026 1.0202 0.9667 0.9671 1.0258 1.0234
2008 - 2022 0.9790 0.9714 1.0481 1.0597 0.9707 0.9525 1.0318 1.0616 0.9313 0.9161 1.0290 1.0581 0.9259 0.9250 1.0669 1.0618
2008 - 2031 0.9716 0.9583 1.0831 1.1038 0.9602 0.9326 1.0509 1.1043 0.9005 0.8779 1.0832 1.1098 0.8849 0.8832 1.1241 1.1066
2014 - 2022 0.9918 0.9845 1.0247 1.0341 0.9852 0.9705 1.0218 1.0350 0.9588 0.9487 1.0248 1.0363 0.9576 0.9562 1.0379 1.0366
2014 - 2031 0.9836 0.9706 1.0581 1.0769 0.9741 0.9496 1.0398 1.0763 0.9267 0.9087 1.0776 1.0865 0.9150 0.9127 1.0916 1.0799
Kent Growth
AMPK Car Car Passenger Bus Passenger Rail Passenger
From - to EB HBW HBO NHBO EB HBW HBO NHBO EB HBW HBO NHBO EB HBW HBO NHBO
2008 - 2014 1.0491 1.0514 1.1057 1.0706 1.0438 1.0408 1.0691 1.0684 1.0316 1.0242 1.0535 1.0638 1.0330 1.0352 1.0926 1.0697
2008 - 2022 1.0984 1.0934 1.2318 1.1451 1.0838 1.0557 1.1658 1.1446 1.0504 1.0217 1.1439 1.1462 1.0618 1.0556 1.2145 1.1539
2008 - 2031 1.1234 1.1119 1.3639 1.2012 1.1039 1.0526 1.2398 1.2001 1.0559 1.0035 1.2554 1.2151 1.0700 1.0488 1.3484 1.2168
2014 - 2022 1.0469 1.0399 1.1137 1.0693 1.0383 1.0143 1.0903 1.0709 1.0182 0.9974 1.0853 1.0768 1.0279 1.0197 1.1109 1.0780
2014 - 2031 1.0708 1.0576 1.2329 1.1215 1.0576 1.0114 1.1594 1.1227 1.0236 0.9797 1.1908 1.1412 1.0358 1.0131 1.2330 1.1363
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 27 - Issued: August 2016
Kent Growth
PMPK Car Car Passenger Bus Passenger Rail Passenger
From - to EB HBW HBO NHBO EB HBW HBO NHBO EB HBW HBO NHBO EB HBW HBO NHBO
2008 - 2014 1.0516 1.0510 1.0889 1.0709 1.0475 1.0416 1.0677 1.0690 1.0311 1.0237 1.0527 1.0635 1.0372 1.0340 1.0829 1.0695
2008 - 2022 1.1017 1.0922 1.1909 1.1454 1.0879 1.0621 1.1541 1.1453 1.0435 1.0233 1.1358 1.1436 1.0644 1.0536 1.1905 1.1501
2008 - 2031 1.1289 1.1120 1.2900 1.2016 1.1101 1.0684 1.2197 1.2011 1.0433 1.0118 1.2354 1.2108 1.0712 1.0496 1.3034 1.2098
2014 - 2022 1.0475 1.0391 1.0934 1.0694 1.0385 1.0196 1.0808 1.0710 1.0120 0.9996 1.0786 1.0747 1.0262 1.0189 1.0987 1.0747
2014 - 2031 1.0735 1.0580 1.1841 1.1218 1.0597 1.0257 1.1422 1.1231 1.0118 0.9883 1.1729 1.1375 1.0327 1.0150 1.2022 1.1300
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 28 - Issued: August 2016
Appendix F Model Output
Network Performance – Full Network
AM Peak 2014 2031 DM 2031 DS4A 2031 DS4B
Total travel time (vhrs) 24848 29744 27726 28194
Total congested travel time (vhrs) 14620 18074 16746 17056
Total Travel Distance (vkm) 868685 971669 941456 942837
Average network speed (kph) 35.0 32.7 34.0 33.4
PM Peak 2014 2031 DM 2031 DS4A 2031 DS4B
Total travel time (vhrs) 24001 28882 27639 28011
Total congested travel time (vhrs) 13793 17287 16333 16575
Total Travel Distance (vkm) 904268 988360 987946 986362
Average network speed (kph) 37.7 34.2 35.7 35.2
Network Performance – Maidstone Urban Area and M20 J5 to 8
AM Peak 2014 2031 DM 2031 DS4A 2031 DS4B
Total travel time (vhrs) 10912 14156 12751 12988
Total congested travel time (vhrs) 7204 9773 8685 8871
Total Travel Distance (vkm) 216041 249572 243645 236964
Average network speed (kph) 19.8 17.6 19.1 18.2
PM Peak 2014 2031 DM 2031 DS4A 2031 DS4B
Total travel time (vhrs) 9720 13545 12411 12556
Total congested travel time (vhrs) 6209 9177 8232 8350
Total Travel Distance (vkm) 214989 255436 256600 248037
Average network speed (kph) 22.1 18.9 20.7 19.8
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 29 - Issued: August 2016
Network Performance – Maidstone Urban Area
AM Peak 2014 2031 DM 2031 DS4A 2031 DS4B
Total travel time (vhrs) 8250 11048 9333 9824
Total congested travel time (vhrs) 5501 7740 6331 6687
Total Travel Distance (vkm) 122048 143907 140108 141820
Average network speed (kph) 14.8 13.0 15.0 14.4
PM Peak 2014 2031 DM 2031 DS4A 2031 DS4B
Total travel time (vhrs) 7038 10304 8913 9360
Total congested travel time (vhrs) 4551 7093 5908 6227
Total Travel Distance (vkm) 113428 140224 140560 141654
Average network speed (kph) 16.1 13.6 15.8 15.1
% diff from 2014 DM DS4A DS4B
AM Peak
Full
Network
Maidstone
urban area
+ M20
Full
Network
Maidstone
urban area
+ M20
Full
Network
Maidstone
urban area
+ M20
Node turn time 39% 51% 24% 36% 26% 38%
link time 17% 23% 10% 11% 12% 13%
Congested Travel Time 24% 36% 15% 21% 17% 23%
Tot Travel Time 20% 30% 12% 17% 13% 19%
Tot travel distance 12% 16% 8% 13% 9% 10%
Ave network speed -7% -11% -3% -3% -4% -8%
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 30 - Issued: August 2016
% diff from 2014 DM DS4A DS4B
PM Peak
Full
Network
Maidstone
urban area
+ M20
Full
Network
Maidstone
urban area
+ M20
Full
Network
Maidstone
urban area
+ M20
Node turn time 56% 79% 37% 57% 39% 59%
link time 16% 29% 13% 20% 14% 21%
Congested Travel Time 25% 56% 18% 30% 20% 35%
Tot Travel Time 20% 39% 15% 28% 17% 29%
Tot travel distance 9% 19% 9% 19% 9% 15%
Ave network speed -9% -15% -5% -7% -7% -11%
AM Peak DS4A DS4B
% diff from DM
Full
Network
Maidstone
urban area
+ M20
Full
Network
Maidstone
urban area
+ M20
Node turn time -10.3% -10.0% -8.9% -8.6%
link time -6.2% -9.9% -4.6% -8.1%
Congested Travel Time -7.3% -11.1% -5.6% -3.2%
Tot Travel Time -6.8% -9.9% -5.2% -8.3%
Tot travel distance -3.1% -2.4% -3.0% -5.1%
Ave network speed 4.6% 8.4% 2.8% 3.5%
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 31 - Issued: August 2016
Link Flow Data
Site Location
1 A274 (W) Sutton Road
2 A229 (N) Royal Engineers Way
3 A229 Loose Rd
4 A20 London Road
5 Hermitage Lane
6 A26 Tonbridge Rd
7 A229 Linton Rd
8 B2163 Lower St
9 A249 (M20 J7)
10 New Cut Rd
11 Willington St
12 M20 J8 Spur Road
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 32 - Issued: August 2016
Site Location
13 A20 Ashford Rd
14 A249 Sittingbourne Rd
15 B2163 Heath Road
AM Link Flows
Site Link Dir 2014 2031
DM
2031
DS4A
2031
DS4B
1 A274 (W) EB 400 900 750 800
A274 (W) WB 650 700 700 650
2 A229 (N) SB 2350 2350 2100 2150
A229 (N) NB 1800 1850 1800 1850
3 A229 Loose Rd (N) SB 1150 1550 1550 1650
A229 Loose Rd (N) NB 1450 1800 1450 1550
4 A20 London Road EB 1350 1350 1400 1350
A20 London Road WB 1250 1350 1250 1250
5 Hermitage Lane NB 950 1200 1200 1200
Hermitage Lane SB 800 950 850 850
6 A26 Tonbridge Rd EB 700 750 550 550
A26 Tonbridge Rd WB 650 750 800 800
7 A229 Linton Rd SB 500 800 750 750
A229 Linton Rd NB 400 550 550 550
8 B2163 Lower St Leeds NB 650 600 0 550
B2163 Lower St Leeds SB 500 500 50 550
9 A249 NB 1950 1850 2100 2200
A249 SB 2100 2300 2800 2850
10 New Cut Rd NB 800 950 1050 1100
New Cut Rd SB 950 1000 1250 1300
11 Willington St (N) NB 1000 1200 1100 1100
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 33 - Issued: August 2016
Site Link Dir 2014 2031
DM
2031
DS4A
2031
DS4B
Willington St (N) SB 750 1100 1200 1300
12 M20 Spur Road NB 1750 2250 2250 2050
M20 Spur Road SB 1650 2050 2400 2200
13 A20 Ashford Rd EB 850 1100 1350 1350
A20 Ashford Rd WB 1250 1350 1150 1150
14 A249 Sittingbourne Rd NB 950 1100 1000 1000
A249 Sittingbourne Rd SB 600 700 500 550
15 B2163 (W) EB 200 350 350 350
B2163 (W) WB 300 400 400 400
PM Peak
Site Link Dir 2014 2031
DM
2031
DS4A
2031
DS4B
1 A274 (W) EB 550 750 800 750
A274 (W) WB 400 650 650 600
2 A229 (N) SB 2000 2100 1850 1900
A229 (N) NB 2000 2050 2100 2100
3 A229 Loose Rd (N) SB 1450 1700 1650 1700
A229 Loose Rd (N) NB 1200 1550 1300 1350
4 A20 London Road EB 1050 1000 950 950
A20 London Road WB 1300 1500 1500 1550
5 Hermitage Lane NB 950 1200 1100 1150
Hermitage Lane SB 600 950 900 900
6 A26 Tonbridge Rd EB 600 600 600 600
A26 Tonbridge Rd WB 500 700 600 650
7 A229 Linton Rd SB 400 650 600 600
A229 Linton Rd NB 450 700 600 650
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 34 - Issued: August 2016
Site Link Dir 2014 2031
DM
2031
DS4A
2031
DS4B
8 B2163 Lower St Leeds NB 550 600 0 600
B2163 Lower St Leeds SB 550 550 100 500
9 A249 NB 2050 2150 2450 2550
A249 SB 1750 1750 2050 2150
10 New Cut Rd NB 850 850 900 900
New Cut Rd SB 1100 1250 1300 1350
11 Willington St (N) NB 900 1200 1300 1400
Willington St (N) SB 800 900 950 1000
12 M20 Spur Road NB 1550 2200 2350 2150
M20 Spur Road SB 1850 2150 2200 2000
13 A20 Ashford Rd EB 1050 1200 1200 1200
A20 Ashford Rd WB 1000 1250 1350 1350
14 A249 Sittingbourne Rd NB 650 750 800 800
A249 Sittingbourne Rd SB 500 600 500 550
15 B2163 (W) EB 350 350 350 350
B2163 (W) WB 250 400 400 400
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 35 - Issued: August 2016
Travel Time Routes
Travel Times (seconds)
Ro
ute
AM
Inbound
mil
es
2014
(secs)
2031
DM (secs)
2031 DS4A
(secs)
2031 DS4B
(secs)
1 A20 Ashford Road 3.0 616 708 557 577
2 A274 Sutton Road 3.0 738 871 746 818
3 A229 Loose Road 1.9 558 708 572 638
4 B2010 Farleigh Hill 0.9 166 170 168 168
5 A26 Tonbridge Road 2.0 432 446 436 441
6 A20 London Rd 1.6 393 396 360 366
7 A229 Royal Engineers 1.5 326 338 269 282
8 A249 Sittingbourne Rd 1.4 312 345 325 333
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 36 - Issued: August 2016
Ro
ute
AM
Outbound
mil
es
2014
(secs)
2031
DM (secs)
2031 DS4A
(secs)
2031 DS4B
(secs)
1 A20 Ashford Road 3.0 472 553 523 571
2 A274 Sutton Road 3.0 602 708 667 713
3 A229 Loose Road 1.9 456 596 545 592
4 B2010 Farleigh Hill 0.9 208 246 225 239
5 A26 Tonbridge Road 2.0 389 402 393 395
6 A20 London Rd 1.6 380 430 394 413
7 A229 Royal Engineers 1.5 261 389 348 367
8 A249 Sittingbourne Rd 1.4 354 393 360 364
Ro
ute
PM
Inbound
mil
es
2014
(secs)
2031
DM (secs)
2031 DS4A
(secs)
2031 DS4B
(secs)
1 A20 Ashford Road 3.0 532 614 580 602
2 A274 Sutton Road 3.0 672 787 735 773
3 A229 Loose Road 1.9 387 567 476 508
4 B2010 Farleigh Hill 0.9 161 165 162 163
5 A26 Tonbridge Road 2.0 426 409 443 439
6 A20 London Rd 1.6 368 350 357 362
7 A229 Royal Engineers 1.5 260 374 265 275
8 A249 Sittingbourne Rd 1.4 273 286 337 348
Ro
ute
PM
Outbound
mil
es
2014
(secs)
2031
DM (secs)
2031 DS4A
(secs)
2031 DS4B
(secs)
1 A20 Ashford Road 3.0 496 582 498 496
2 A274 Sutton Road 3.0 641 747 684 718
3 A229 Loose Road 1.9 512 701 611 663
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 37 - Issued: August 2016
Ro
ute
PM
Outbound
mil
es
2014
(secs)
2031
DM (secs)
2031 DS4A
(secs)
2031 DS4B
(secs)
4 B2010 Farleigh Hill 0.9 204 313 256 285
5 A26 Tonbridge Road 2.0 381 390 392 394
6 A20 London Rd 1.6 334 362 341 347
7 A229 Royal Engineers 1.5 310 469 450 468
8 A249 Sittingbourne Rd 1.4 334 363 333 338
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 38 - Issued: August 2016
Appendix G Level of Service
LOS defined as the value which is based on the mean delay of the node
Signals
(HCM)
Signals
(ICU1, ICU2
etc)
2 way stop Roundabout
(Kimber)
Roundabout
(HCM)
Mean delay
per vehicle at
the node
(if v/c >1
then F)
Volume
/saturation
flow rate (used
for ICU1 ,
ICU2 etc)
Mean delay per
vehicle at the
intersection
(v/c >1 then F)
LOS of entire
node based on
volume weighted
mean delay of all
approaches
Volume
weighted mean
delay of
approaches (if
volume >
capacity then F)
A 0 – 10 sec 0.0 – 0.6 0 – 10 sec 0 – 10 sec 0 – 10 sec
B 10 – 20 sec 0.601 – 0.7 10 – 15 sec 10 – 15 sec 10 – 15 sec
C 20 – 35 sec 0.701 – 0.8 15 – 25 sec 15 – 25 sec 15 – 25 sec
D 35 – 55 sec 0.801 – 0,9 25 – 35 sec 25 – 35 sec 25 – 35 sec
E 55 – 80 sec 0.901 – 1.0 35 – 50 sec 35 – 50 sec 35 – 50 sec
F 80+ sec >1.0 50 + sec 50 + sec 50 + sec
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 39 - Issued: August 2016
Appendix H Journey Time Profiles
2014
Inbound Outbound
1
2
3
4
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 40 - Issued: August 2016
5
6
7
8
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 41 - Issued: August 2016
2031 DM
Inbound Outbound
1
2
3
4
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 42 - Issued: August 2016
5
6
7
8
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 43 - Issued: August 2016
2031 DS4A
Inbound Outbound
1
2
3
4
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 44 - Issued: August 2016
5
6
7
8
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 45 - Issued: August 2016
2031 DS4B
Inbound Outbound
1
2
3
4
Project Name Maidstone VISUM Transport Model
Document Title Forecasting Report
Doc. Ref.:CO04300370 /003 Rev. 01 - 46 - Issued: August 2016
5
6
7
8