forecasting and managing passenger growth

22
2014 ACI-NA Annual Conference & Exhibition Solutions Showcase Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth Atlanta, September 9 th 2014 Andreas Fähndrich Director Business Development BEONTRA AG

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Andreas Fähndrich , Director Business Development of BEONTRA, a Lockheed Martin company, explains how planning and forecasting can help airports more accurately predict passenger numbers and improve their operations management.

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Page 1: Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

2014 ACI-NA Annual Conference & Exhibition

Solutions Showcase

Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

Atlanta, September 9th 2014

Andreas FähndrichDirector Business DevelopmentBEONTRA AG

Page 2: Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

Page 2 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth09.09.2014

The Hockey Stick

Capacity Constraints

Impa

ct o

n D

isru

ptio

ns

Page 3: Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

Page 3 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth09.09.2014

The Perfect StormRecently in the Newspaper

More than 1,000 passengerswaited an hour from 7.30am

on Wednesday morning

Two flights were delayed by15 minutes

Another arrival was20 minutes early

Page 4: Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

Page 4 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth09.09.2014

The Perfect StormRecently in the Newspaper

Page 5: Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

Page 5 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth09.09.2014

BEONTRA Solution „Realtime Forecasting“

Page 6: Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

Page 6 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth09.09.2014

Showcase Realtime ForecastingAt 12:00: Prediction for 15:00 Immigration: Normal Ops

  Time Flight Destination Gate Remarks  12:05 KL 1010 London H2

  12:15 KL 1673 Barcelona H12

  12:30 KL 1603 Rome H5

  12:50 KL 1087 Manchester H26

  13:15 KL 1843 Vienna H11

  13:20 KL 1175 Trondheim H84

  13:40 KL 1189 Bogota H23

  13:55 KL 1267 Nice H18

  14:05 KL 1977 Budapest H23

  14:25 KL 1317 Bordeaux H9

  14:35 KL 1325 Alesund H41

  14:50 KL 1365 Warsaw H8  

  15:05 KL 0411 Amman H6  

  15:20 KL 0415 Kuwait H22  

  15:30 KL 0427 Dubai H11  

  15:40 KL 0685 Mexico H55  

  15:55 KL 1115 Aarlanda H9  

Flight Arrivals

Page 7: Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

Page 7 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth09.09.2014

30m waiting times atImmigration

Time Flight Destination Gate Remarks12:05 KL 1010 London H2

12:15 KL 1673 Barcelona H12

12:30 KL 1603 Rome H5

12:50 KL 1087 Manchester H26

13:15 KL 1843 Vienna H11

13:20 KL 1175 Trondheim H84

13:40 KL 1189 Bogota H23

13:55 KL 1267 Nice H18

14:05 KL 1977 Budapest H23

14:25 KL 1317 Bordeaux H9

14:35 KL 1325 Alesund H41

14:50 KL 1365 Warsaw H8

15:05 KL 0411 Amman H6

15:20 KL 0415 Kuwait H22

15:30 KL 0427 Dubai H11

15:40 KL 0685 Mexico H55

15:55 KL 1115 Aarlanda H9

Flight Departures

Showcase Realtime ForecastingAt 12:30: INCIDENT BAD WEATHER – Prediction for 16:00

  Time Flight Destination Gate Remarks  12:05 KL 1010 London H2  Delay 12:25

  12:15 KL 1673 Barcelona H12  

  12:30 KL 1603 Rome H5  Delay 12:55

  12:50 KL 1087 Manchester H26  

  13:15 KL 1843 Vienna H11  Delay 13:35

  13:20 KL 1175 Trondheim H84  Delay 13:50

  13:40 KL 1189 Bogota H23  

  13:55 KL 1267 Nice H18  Delay 14:30

  14:05 KL 1977 Budapest H23  

  14:25 KL 1317 Bordeaux H9  Delay 14:40

  14:35 KL 1325 Alesund H41  Delay 15:00

  14:50 KL 1365 Warsaw H8  

  15:05 KL 0411 Amman H6  

  15:20 KL 0415 Kuwait H22  

  15:30 KL 0427 Dubai H11  

  15:40 KL 0685 Mexico H55  

  15:55 KL 1115 Aarlanda H9  

Flight Arrivals

Page 8: Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

Page 8 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth09.09.2014

BEONTRA iPad App

Page 9: Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

Page 9 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth09.09.2014

How to accurately predict passengers numbersbetween the next 30 minutes and the next 30 years?

Strategic Planning

3 years+

Tactical Planning

next season+

Operations Planning

Next days+

OperationalDay Prediction

today

Capacity Planning

Demand Forecasting

Realtime Forecasting

Page 10: Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

Page 10 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth09.09.2014

How to accurately predict passengers numbersbetween the next 30 minutes and the next 30 years?

Strategic Planning

3 years+

Tactical Planning

next season+

Operations Planning

Next days+

OperationalDay Prediction

today

Capacity Planning

Demand Forecasting

Realtime Forecasting

Page 11: Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

Page 11 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth09.09.2014

How to accurately predict passengers numbersbetween the next 30 minutes and the next 30 years?

Strategic Planning

3 years+

Tactical Planning

next season+

Operations Planning

Next days+

OperationalDay Prediction

today

Capacity Planning

Demand Forecasting

Realtime Forecasting

Page 12: Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

Page 12 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth09.09.2014

How to accurately predict passengers numbersbetween the next 30 minutes and the next 30 years?

Strategic Planning

3 years+

Tactical Planning

next season+

Operations Planning

Next days+

OperationalDay Prediction

today

Capacity Planning

Demand Forecasting

Realtime Forecasting

Page 13: Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

Page 13 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth09.09.2014

How will your airspace, airfield,terminals and infrastructure cope?

Strategic Planning

3 years+

Tactical Planning

next season+

Operations Planning

Next days+

OperationalDay Prediction

today

Capacity Planning

Demand Forecasting

Realtime Forecasting

Page 14: Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

Page 14 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth09.09.2014

How will your airspace, airfield,terminals and infrastructure cope?

Strategic Planning

3 years+

Tactical Planning

next season+

Operations Planning

Next days+

OperationalDay Prediction

today

Capacity Planning

Demand Forecasting

Realtime Forecasting

Optimization Potential

Shortfall

Page 15: Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

Page 15 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth09.09.2014

How will your airspace, airfield,terminals and infrastructure cope?

Strategic Planning

3 years+

Tactical Planning

next season+

Operations Planning

Next days+

OperationalDay Prediction

today

Capacity Planning

Demand Forecasting

Realtime Forecasting

Optimization Potential

Shortfall

Page 16: Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

Page 16 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth09.09.2014

Lockheed Martin Global Airports End-to-End Solutions

Strategic Planning

3 years+

Tactical Planning

next season+

Operations Planning

Next days+

OperationalDay Prediction

today

Capacity Planning

Demand Forecasting

Realtime Forecasting

OperationsManagement

PostOperation

BIBilling

Staff Planning

Master PlanForecasting

BudgetForecasting

RetailPlanning

RouteDevelopment

TariffDesign

PassengerTracking

Ressource Managemen

t

CDM

Airline AllocationEvaluation

Page 17: Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

Page 17 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth09.09.2014

What can be achieved with BEONTRA?

CAPEXReductionshandle up to 30% more traffic within the same infrastructure by better utilizing the resources

OPEX Reductionssave up to 150,000 USD per 1m passengers per year

Improved CommercialDwell Timebring happy customers as soon as possible to the airside commercial area

ImprovedPassenger Experience

Page 18: Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

Page 18 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth09.09.2014

Over 50 Airports Worldwide trust in BEONTRA

Page 19: Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

Page 19 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth09.09.2014

Page 20: Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

Page 20 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth09.09.2014

What can be achieved with BEONTRA ?Copenhagen: The Efficient Airport (Skytrax “Best Security” Award 2013)

Reduction in check-in counter demand = 26%~ 20m EUR CAPEX savings

Security per FTE throughput increase 42% in 3 years~ 8m EUR OPEX savings p.a.

Kasper Dybkjær Hounsgaard,Head of Operational and Business

Analysis

“Getting 8.5 million passengers through 100 check-in desks and 19 security tracks requires a little more than ordinary planning.Today we have increased the capacity utilization by almost 30%.”

Mr. Thomas Hoff Anderson,Director Airport Optimization

Page 21: Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

Page 21 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth09.09.2014

ReferencesAMS: Operational Terminal Prediction

“For the increase of passenger

satisfaction, better utilization of

resources and reduction of

operating costs, it is necessary to

act instead of react to expected

passenger flows. With BEONTRA’s

Realtime Forecasting being fed by

different stakeholders we are now

able to do so.” Sandor Verhoeven

Capacity Manager Passenger ServicesAmsterdam Airport Schiphol

Page 22: Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth

Page 22 Solutions Showcase – Forecasting and Managing Passenger Growth09.09.2014

ReferencesBRU: BEONTRA Scenario Planning as Corporate Planning Backbone

“Implementing the BEONTRA Scenario Planning Suite across our organization standardizes the planning procedures and diminishes inconsictencies between traffic, revenue and inverstment planning forecasting.”

Marc-Andre GennartCFO

Brussels Airport

BEONTRAScenario Planning

B strategic

Concept Evaluation

B tactical

LongtermDemand

Forecasting

B capacity

B route development

Master Planning,Project Engineering

Simulation

PlanningSchedules

BusinessPlanning

ShiftPlanning

Stand/GateCheck-in Allocation

RosteringB operational

DailyOperations