for immediate release new poll: how will edmonton vote …

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE September 15, 2021

NEW POLL: HOW WILL EDMONTON VOTE IN THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS?

A new poll conducted by Pivotal Research Inc. is shedding light on the voting intentions of Edmontonians.

The poll, conducted online between September 1-13, 2021, asked 426 eligible Edmonton voters how they intend to vote in the upcoming federal and municipal elections. The survey included questions about Edmonton’s mayoral race, city council race, referendum ballot, Senate elections, and more.

Municipal Results

Amarjeet Sohi leads Edmonton’s mayoral race with 19 percent support, followed by Mike Nickel at 14 percent and Kim Krushell with 7 percent. All 10 remaining contenders have less than 5 percent support from decided voters.

A lot of votes are still up for grabs with 41 percent of voters remaining undecided.

Jihad Melhem, President of Edmonton-based consultancy Pivotal Research, said the number of undecided voters isn’t surprising in a race without an incumbent and several candidates with former political experience.

“It’s not a foregone conclusion,” said Melhem. “It’s definitely possible for something surprising to happen.”

Name recognition could play a big role in where the undecided votes land. Roughly 60 percent of voters have heard of Nickel and Sohi, and a further 40 percent said they were familiar with Krushell and Michael Oshry.

The poll also found that 91 percent of Edmontonians intend to vote. Only 2 percent of respondents said they won’t be voting and 6 percent are undecided. Voter turnout in Edmonton’s 2017 election was 31.5 percent.

Nearly 10 percent of eligible voters weren’t even aware of the upcoming municipal election. This comes on the heels of the City of Edmonton breaking a long-standing tradition of holding public debate-style election forums for mayoral, council, and school board candidates.

The 2021 municipal ballot will also include two referendum questions, regarding equalization payments and year-round Daylight Saving Time. For these questions, voters will simply select “yes” or “no.”

Thirty-six (36) percent of Edmontonians said they would support removing equalization payments from the Canadian Constitution. Sixty (60) percent of Edmonton voters support year-round Daylight Saving Time.

Edmontonians will also be able to vote for three Senate candidates on October 18. Pam Davidson, Randy Hogle, and Erika Barootes are currently in the lead with 8 percent, 6 percent, and 5 percent of support from decided voters, respectively.

Federal Results

The upcoming municipal election isn’t the only vote on the minds of Edmontonians—they will also head to the polls on September 20 to elect the next federal government.

Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives have 31 percent support among eligible Edmonton voters, followed by Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party at 27 percent and Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party at 19 percent. Annamie Paul’s Green Party and Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party both have less than 5 percent of support from decided voters.

In 2019, all but one of Edmonton’s federal electoral districts were won by Conservative Party candidates.

Twelve (12) percent of voters remain undecided and 2 percent said they won’t be voting at all.

At the federal level, healthcare, the cost of living and jobs are the most high-profile issues. Other issues in the spotlight include post-pandemic economic recovery and climate change.

Provincial Results

If a provincial election were held today, 43 percent of Edmontonians would support Rachel Notley’s New Democrats. Twenty (20) percent would vote for Jason Kenney’s United Conservative Party.

Although the Alberta government removed almost all COVID-19 public health restrictions on July 1, some voters are still feeling anxious about in-person voting. About 12 percent of voters are at least somewhat cautious about casting their ballot in-person.

Eligible voters are defined as Canadian citizens who are at least 18 years of age on Election Day.

Online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error because they do not randomly sample the population. If the poll used a random sampling method, it would have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percent, 19 times out of 20.

Pivotal Research is an Edmonton-based provider of research consulting services with more than 25 years of experience delivering market research and evaluation excellence to decision makers in multiple industries across Canada and beyond.

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For more information please contact:

Jihad Melhem 780-421-1199 President [email protected]

Rainer Kocsis 780-667-6263

Senior Research Analyst [email protected]

Enclosure: Full results – report

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

September 15, 2021

Election Polls

2

Are you aware that municipal elections will take place across Alberta on October 18, 2021? %

Weighted n = 426

Unweighted n = 426

Yes 90%

No 10%

3

Which of the following mayoral candidates have you heard of? %

Weighted n = 426

Unweighted n = 426

Abdul Malik Chukwudi 7%

Rick Comrie 14%

Brian “Breezy” Gregg 7%

Kim Krushell 41%

Augustine Marah 4%

Mike Nickel 62%

Michael Oshry 39%

Amarjeet Soji 57%

Diana Steele 19%

Cheryl Watson 20%

None; I don’t recognize any of these candidates 14%

4

Which of the following

mayoral candidates have

you heard of?

Total Age18 – 24

years

25 – 29

years

30 – 39

years

40 – 49

years

50 – 59

years

60 – 69

years

70 and

over

Weighted

Unweighted

n = 418

n = 418

n = 51

n = 51

n = 42

n = 42

n = 85

n = 85

n = 71

n = 71

n = 71

n = 71

n = 58

n = 58

n = 40

n = 40

Abdul Malik Chukwudi 1% 0% 0% 1% 3% 0% 0% 2%

Brian “Breezy” Gregg 2% 6% 5% 4% 3% 0% 0% 0%

Kim Krushell 7% 6% 7% 4% 8% 8% 7% 7%

Augustine Marah 1% 0% 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0%

Mike Nickel 14% 14% 0% 11% 15% 15% 18% 27%

Michael Oshry 4% 10% 2% 4% 1% 4% 5% 2%

Amarjeet Sohi 19% 16% 29% 14% 17% 32% 12% 15%

Diana Steele 1% 2% 2% 0% 3% 0% 4% 0%

Cheryl Watson 3% 2% 2% 2% 8% 0% 5% 2%

Undecided/Not sure 41% 39% 43% 55% 35% 32% 46% 34%

I will not vote for mayor 2% 2% 7% 1% 1% 1% 2% 5%

Prefer not to answer 3% 4% 0% 5% 3% 4% 2% 5%

5

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming municipal election? %

Weighted n = 426

Unweighted n = 426

Extremely likely 51%

Very likely 21%

Moderately likely 15%

Not very likely 5%

Not at all likely/I will not vote 2%

Undecided/Not sure 6%

Prefer not to answer 1%

6

Which mayoral candidate are you most likely to vote for during the upcoming municipal elections? %

Weighted n = 418

Unweighted n = 418

Abdul Malik Chukwudi 1%

Brian “Breezy” Gregg 2%

Kim Krushell 7%

Augustine Marah 1%

Mike Nickel 14%

Michael Oshry 4%

Amarjeet Soji 19%

Diana Steele 1%

Cheryl Watson 3%


I will not vote for mayor 2%


7

Ward Nakota Isga %

Weighted n = 32

Unweighted n = 32

Andrew Knack (incumbent) 32%

Steve Weston 9%


I will not vote for a councillor 3%


8

Ward Anirniq %

Weighted n = 49

Unweighted n = 49

Mark Davies 2%

Bev Esslinger (incumbent) 13%

Ali Haymour 7%

Michelle Henderson 4%

Erin Rutherford 8%

Tyler Zutz 6%




9

Ward tastawiyiniwak %

Weighted n = 25

Unweighted n = 25

Cody Bondarchuk 8%

Jon Dziadyk (incumbent) 20%

Iannie Gerona 4%

Zain Hafiz 4%

Karen Principe 20%


I will not vote for a councillor4%


10

Ward Dene %

Weighted n = 25

Unweighted n = 25

Lana Palmer 15%

Aaron Paquette (incumbent) 28%



11

Ward O-Day’min %

Weighted n = 47

Unweighted n = 47

Gabrielle Battiste 4%

Adrian Bruff 5%

Tony Caterina (incumbent) 17%

Naima Haile 2%

Anne Stevenson 7%

Joshua Wolchansky 4%




12

Ward Metis %

Weighted n = 33

Unweighted n = 33

Liz John-West 6%

Cori Longo 3%

Salar Melli 3%

Ashley Salvador 6%




13

Ward sipiwiyiniwak %

Weighted n = 38

Unweighted n = 38

Sarah Hamilton (incumbent) 21%

Scott Hayes 3%

Daniel Heikkinen 8%

Derek Hlady 8%




14

Ward papastew %

Weighted n = 35

Unweighted n = 35

Haruun Ali 3%

James Cameron 11%

Susan Field 3%

Kirsten Goa 11%

Michael Janz 4%




15

Ward pihesiwin %

Weighted n = 29

Unweighted n = 29

Tim Cartmell (incumbent) 10%

Guiscela Arellano 7%




16

Ward Ipiihkookhanipiaohtsi %

Weighted n = 45

Unweighted n = 45

Rhiannon Hoyle 2%

Scott Johnson 9%

Glynnis Lieb 2%

Jon Morgan 13%

Jennifer Rice 20%



17

Ward Kaarhio %

Weighted n = 42

Unweighted n = 42

Sana Kakar 2%

Charan Saggu 2%

Tom Shaw 10%

Keren Tang 7%

Shamair Turner 7%



18

Ward Sspomitapi %

Weighted n = 19

Unweighted n = 19

Moe Banga (incumbent) 11%

Sanjay Malhotra 5%

Rashpal Sehmby 6%



19

Should section 36(2) of the Constitution Act, 1982 regarding the Parliament and the

government of Canada’s commitment to the principle of making equalization

payments be removed from the constitution?

%

Weighted n = 418

Unweighted n = 418

Yes 36%

No 28%


20

Should Alberta adopt year-round Daylight-Saving Time, which is summer hours,

eliminating the need to change our clocks twice a year?%

Weighted n = 418

Unweighted n = 418

Yes 60%

No 27%


21

During the municipal election, Albertans will vote to select three (3) Senate nominees who may

be summoned to the Senate of Canada for the purpose of filling a vacancy or vacancies relating

to Alberta. Which senate candidate(s) are you most likely to vote for?

%

Weighted n = 418

Unweighted n = 418

Erika Barootes 5%

Pam Davidson 8%

Randy Hogle 6%

Duncan Kinney 4%

Mykhailo Martyniouk 3%

Jeff Neilson 5%

Sunil Sookram 3%


I will not vote for a Senate candidate 8%


22

If a provincial election were held today, which political party would you be most likely

to vote for? - Selected Choice%

Weighted n = 426

Unweighted n = 426

United Conservative Party led by Jason Kenney 20%

New Democratic Party led by Rachel Notley 43%

Alberta Party led by Barry Morishita 5%

Alberta Liberal Party led by John Roggeven 8%

Wildrose Independence Party led by Paul Hinman 2%

Some other party. Specify: 0%


I will not vote in the Provincial election 3%


23

Are you aware that the next federal election will take place on September 20th, 2021? %

Weighted n = 426

Unweighted n = 426

Yes 93%

No 7%

24

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming federal election? %

Weighted n = 426

Unweighted n = 426

Extremely likely 65%

Very likely 16%

Moderately likely 11%

Not very likely 2%

Not at all likely/I will not vote 2%



25

Which political party are you most likely to vote for in the upcoming federal election?

- Selected Choice%

Weighted n = 418

Unweighted n = 418

Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau 19%

New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh 27%

Conservative Party led by Erin O’Toole 31%

Green Party led by Annamie Paul 4%

People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 3%

Another party not listed here 1%



26

Which political party are you most

likely to vote for in the upcoming

federal election? - Selected Choice

Total

Age

18 – 24

years

25 – 29

years

30 – 39

years

40 – 49

years

50 – 59

years

60 – 69

years

70 and

over

Weighted

Unweighted

n = 418

n = 418

n = 50

n = 50

n = 42

n = 42

n = 85

n = 85

n = 70

n = 70

n = 72

n = 72

n = 58

n = 58

n = 41

n = 41

Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau 19% 24% 21% 21% 23% 19% 7% 19%

New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh 27% 30% 31% 39% 24% 22% 23% 14%

Conservative Party led by Erin O’Toole 31% 18% 19% 22% 27% 33% 46% 56%

Green Party led by Annamie Paul 4% 4% 17% 5% 6% 1% 0% 0%

People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 3% 2% 5% 4% 6% 1% 4% 0%

Another party not listed here 1% 4% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2%

Undecided/Not sure 12% 16% 7% 8% 10% 19% 18% 5%

Prefer not to answer 2% 2% 0% 1% 3% 3% 2% 5%

27

Regardless of your voting intentions, what are the top three (3) issues you would want the next federal

government to address? Please select up to 3 choices from the list below: - Selected Choice%

Weighted n = 426

Unweighted n = 426

Post-pandemic economic recovery 28%

Healthcare 37%

Environment/Climate change 23%

Indigenous issues 11%

Improving cost of living 31%

Income inequality 15%

Racism 9%

Housing Affordability 18%

Federal Deficit/Government Spending 18%

Taxes 19%

Jobs/Unemployment 28%

Crime 9%

Energy/Pipelines 16%

Public health measures e.g. vaccine passports 17%

Other. Specify: 3%

None/Do not know 3%

28

How comfortable would you be casting your ballot at an in-person polling place? %

Weighted n = 426

Unweighted n = 426

Extremely comfortable 34%

Very comfortable 22%

Moderately comfortable 27%

Not very comfortable 9%

Not at all comfortable 3%

Unsure 4%


29

Which of the following describes your gender identity? %

Weighted n = 426

Unweighted n = 426

Woman 50%

Man 47%

Non-binary 2%


30

In what part of Edmonton do you currently reside? %

Weighted n = 426

Unweighted n = 426

1 8%

2 12%

3 6%

4 6%

5 11%

6 8%

7 9%

8 9%

9 7%

10 11%

11 10%

12 4%

Changes to the geographical ward boundaries and ward names were made through Edmonton Bylaw 19366 and passed on December 7, 2020. Based on your response to the previous question, you currently reside in Ward Nakota Isga.

31

How would you describe your level of comfort in your ability to correctly pronounce

the Indigenous ward name?%

Weighted n = 32

Unweighted n = 32




Slightly comfortable 31%



Changes to the geographical ward boundaries and ward names were made through Edmonton Bylaw 19366 and passed on December 7, 2020. Based on your response to the previous question, you currently reside in Ward Anirniq.

32



Weighted n = 51

Unweighted n = 51







Changes to the geographical ward boundaries and ward names were made through Edmonton Bylaw 19366 and passed on December 7, 2020. Based on your response to the previous question, you currently reside in Ward tastawiyiniwak.

33



Weighted n = 25

Unweighted n = 25






Prefer not to answer -

Changes to the geographical ward boundaries and ward names were made through Edmonton Bylaw 19366 and passed on December 7, 2020. Based on your response to the previous question, you currently reside in Ward Dene.

34



Weighted n = 27

Unweighted n = 27







Changes to the geographical ward boundaries and ward names were made through Edmonton Bylaw 19366 and passed on December 7, 2020. Based on your response to the previous question, you currently reside in Ward O-Day’min.

35



Weighted n = 47

Unweighted n = 47







Changes to the geographical ward boundaries and ward names were made through Edmonton Bylaw 19366 and passed on December 7, 2020. Based on your response to the previous question, you currently reside in Ward Metis.

36



Weighted n = 35

Unweighted n = 35







Changes to the geographical ward boundaries and ward names were made through Edmonton Bylaw 19366 and passed on December 7, 2020. Based on your response to the previous question, you currently reside in Ward sipiwiyiniwak.

37



Weighted n = 38

Unweighted n = 38







Changes to the geographical ward boundaries and ward names were made through Edmonton Bylaw 19366 and passed on December 7, 2020. Based on your response to the previous question, you currently reside in Ward papastew.

38



Weighted n = 36

Unweighted n = 36







Changes to the geographical ward boundaries and ward names were made through Edmonton Bylaw 19366 and passed on December 7, 2020. Based on your response to the previous question, you currently reside in Ward pihesiwin.

39



Weighted n = 29

Unweighted n = 29







Changes to the geographical ward boundaries and ward names were made through Edmonton Bylaw 19366 and passed on December 7, 2020. Based on your response to the previous question, you currently reside in Ward Ipiihkookhanipiaohtsi.

40



Weighted n = 46

Unweighted n = 46


Very comfortable 7%





Changes to the geographical ward boundaries and ward names were made through Edmonton Bylaw 19366 and passed on December 7, 2020. Based on your response to the previous question, you currently reside in Ward Kaarhio.

41



Weighted n = 43

Unweighted n = 43







Changes to the geographical ward boundaries and ward names were made through Edmonton Bylaw 19366 and passed on December 7, 2020. Based on your response to the previous question, you currently reside in Ward Sspomitapi.

42



Weighted n = 19

Unweighted n = 19


Very comfortable -





43

In which of the following age categories do you fall? %

Weighted n = 426

Unweighted n = 426

18 – 24 years 12%

25 – 29 years 10%

30 – 39 years 20%

40 – 49 years 17%

50 – 59 years 17%

60 – 69 years 13%

70 – 79 years 7%

80 – 89 years 3%

90 – 90 years 1%

44

Which of the following describes your total household income per year before taxes? %

Weighted n = 426

Unweighted n = 426

Under $20,000 7%

$20,000 to under $29,999 10%

$30,000 to under $39,999 7%

$40,000 to under $49,999 7%

$50,000 to under $59,999 11%

$60,000 to under $74,999 11%

$75,000 to under $99,999 14%

$100,000 to under $149,999 15%

$150,000 or more 9%


45

In terms of employment (including self-employment), how would you describe

yourself?%

Weighted n = 426

Unweighted n = 426

Employed full time (30 hours or more per week) 48%

Employed part time (less than 30 hours per week) 12%

Unemployed 7%

Unable to work 7%

Stay at home parent 2%

Student 4%

Retired 17%


46

What is the highest level of education that you have completed? %

Weighted n = 426

Unweighted n = 426

PhD or equivalent doctorate 2%

Master’s degree 9%

Undergraduate/Bachelor's degree 28%

College/diploma or certificate 20%

Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma 8%

High(secondary) school diploma 26%

No certificate, diploma or degree 3%


47

What languages do you speak fluently? (Multiple Response) %

Weighted n = 426

Unweighted n = 426

English 99%

French 7%

Other 11%


48

Which of the following best describes your ethnicity? %

Weighted n = 426

Unweighted n = 426

Asian or Pacific Islander 19%

Black or African American 2%

Latin American 3%

Indigenous/Native American 4%

White or Caucasian 66%

Mediterranean or Middle Eastern 3%

A race/ethnicity not listed here 2%


49

QUESTIONS and ANSWERS

Thank you!

for immediate release new poll: how will edmonton vote …

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