2016: THE LATINO VOTE

Mike Madrid, GrassrootsLab@madrid_mike

Latino Voter Registration in California

@madrid_mike

A Pew Research Center study released earlier this year

estimated that a lofty 44 percent of the record 27.3 million

eligible Latinos nationally are Millennials. However, their

turnout rate was over 20 points lower than the rate of the

overall voter population in 2012.

A 2015 PPIC report indicates that only 18 percent of all

registered Latino voters are considered “likely

voters.” Of this universe, a vast majority are registered

Democrats, and only 23 percent are Republican.37%

11%23%

29%

CA Latino Likely Voters

Democrat Republican Independent Other

A Snapshot of the Latino

MILITARY PARTICIPATION

Latino involvement in the US Armed Services has increased from 3% in 1985 to 13% in 2014. Currently, they

represent the 2nd largest minority among enlisted members - with African Americans comprising 18.3%.

EDUCATION POLICYLatinos tend to favor consistent school testing to gauge academic progress and an emphasis on performance

above seniority in determining teacher performance.

@madrid_mike

ENTREPRENEURSHIPSince 2007, Hispanic-owned businesses have grown

by over 3.2 million - making Latinos the fastest

growing demographic of business owners nationally.

According to Forbes, the top 5 state for Latino business

are:

Texas (16.4%)

California (15.7%)

Florida (15.7%)

New York (9.1%)

Georgia (3.0%)

PARTISANSHIP

@madrid_mike

CA Latino Voter Registration

@madrid_mike

According to a 2015 PPIC study:

“Whites make up only 43 percent of California’s adult population, but 60

percent of the state’s likely voters.”

But “Latinos comprise 34 percent of the adult (eligible voter) population, but

just 18 percent of likely voters.”

59%18%

17%

6%Latino Likely Voters

Democrat

Republican

NPP

Other

CA Democrat Registration1970 - 2014

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Democrat Registration

@madrid_mike

Latino Republicans

In California, there are

677,431 Registered Latino

Republicans - a universe that

significantly outnumbers the

total number of Republicans

registered in a number of

states.

New Hampshire:

263,799

Iowa: 646,710

New Mexico:

367,613

Nevada:

488,608

@madrid_mike

The Rise of the Nonpartisan Voter

“…looking closer at registration by

city and by ethnicity we can see

that this growth in NPP voters…is

coming on strongly in minorityvoter communities and, like all new

registration, reflects predominantly

younger voters.

If our state voter file is seeing an

influx of millennials and minorities,

two bases of the Democratic Party,

then anything other than a swelling

of their registration numbers could

be seen as losing ground”

CA120: Voter Registration: GOP death rattle or a

missed opportunity for the Dems?

Paul Mitchell

@madrid_mike

Voting Power in CA

@madrid_mike

Non-white

Republicans –

particularly Asians

and Latinos – have

significantly more

voting power when

it comes to

selecting

presidential

delegates than the

average white

Republican voter

@madrid_mike

Republican Presidential PreferencesUSC Dornsife / LA Times Poll, March 2016

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Kasich

Cruz

Trump

Latino Respondents

Total Unfavorable Total Favorable

Republican Presidential Preferences

Trump

26%

Cruz

34%

Kasich

4%

Other

18%

Undecided

9%

Refused

6%

Will Not Vote

3%

USC Dornsife / LA Times Poll, March 2016

Latino Republican voters favor Ted

Cruz over Donald Trump by a

margin of 8 points. However, nearly

a fifth of respondents indicated a

preference for another candidate

entirely. Another 12 percent

remained either undecided or noted

that they will not participate in the

presidential election.

@madrid_mike

Trump and the Latino Voter

Favorable

23%

NA/Neutral

4%

Unfavorable

73%

USC Dornsife / LA Times Poll, March 2016

@madrid_mike

Favorable

9%

NA/Neutral

4%

Unfavorable

87%

All Respondents Latino Respondents

Democrat Presidential Preferences

@madrid_mike

Clinton

51%

Sanders

37%

Other

2%

Undecide

d

8%Refused

1%

Not

Voting

1%

USC Dornsife / LA Times Poll, March 2016

According to a

USC Dornsife Poll

released in

March, Latino

voters in

California favor

Hillary Clinton

over Bernie

Sanders by a

margin of 13

points.

20162008

Clinton

67%

Obama

32%

Other

1%A 2008 Pew

Hispanic Center

Report recorded

that Hillary

overwhelmingly

won the Latino

vote in that

year’s primary –

by a margin of

over 2 to 1.

REPRESENTATION

@madrid_mike

Latino Elected Representation

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%

School Board

City Council

County Supervisor

Assembly

Senate

@madrid_mike

Latinos are

consistently and

significantly

underrepresented at

every level of

government

Latino Elected RepresentationSchool Board Representation & Gender Split

52%48%

51%49%

Male

Female

13 percent of

elected K-12

School Board

Members are

Latino

Latino School

Board Members

Non- Latino School

Board Members

@madrid_mike

A LATINO BETWEEN THE AGES OF 18 – 24 IS MORE LIKELY TO

BE ARRESTED THAN TO VOTE

@madrid_mike

Socio-Economic Decline in Los Angeles County

In comparing the Per Capita

Personal Income over the

last 50 years, San

Francisco’s numbers have

increased at a much higher

rate than Los Angeles,

resulting in Los Angeles’

swift decline rank among

other US Cities.

While voting has dropped

among all income levels,

among the poor it has

completely collapsed.

@madrid_mike

Participation Decline in Los Angeles County

68.0%

55.2%

58.6%

31.0%

1978 1990 1994 2014

Los Angeles Voter

Turnout

This steep decline in per capita income – and

resulting increase in poverty levels – is

commensurate with a plummeting rate of voter

participation, which is less than half the rate it

was 40 years ago.

When Jerry Brown first ran for election in 1978,

2,122,733 voters in Los Angeles County turned

out to cast a vote. When he ran for reelection in

2014, only 1,518,835 voters turned out.

In the 36-year interim, the total population of the

county increased by over 33% - from 7.352

million to nearly 9.82 million – but saw voter

participation plummet by over 28%.

2,122,733

Voters

1,518,835

Voters

@madrid_mike

LATINOS COMPRISE LESS THAN 5% OF THE HIGH TECH

WORKFORCEThe fastest growing and most dynamic sector of the economy is completely void of the fastest

growing and most dynamic sector of the population

@madrid_mike

THE ROOT CAUSE OF

LOWER VOTER TURNOUT

@madrid_mike

Economic Prosperity

HOME OWNERSHIP

UNEMPLOYMENT

Fewer than half—46 percent—of Latino households are owner-

occupied. In comparison, 57 percent of all California

households statewide are owner-occupied.

Latino unemployment rates lag

the general population in

nearly every county in

California. On average, Latino

unemployment is 1.8 percent

higher across the state’s 58

counties.

@madrid_mike

A Closer Look: Los Angeles County

Of the 37 counties in California with a Latino Population above 20%,

Los Angeles County ranks:

5th highest in Latino local elected representation, but…

15th in Unemployment at 12.4%

23rd in Poverty at 23.2%

23rd High School Dropout Rate with 3.7%, tied with Solano, Fresno, Kings, Kern Counties.

24th in Registered Voter Turnout with 59.6%

30th in Home Ownership at 38.7%

@madrid_mike

QUESTIONS?Mike Madrid, GrassrootsLab

@madrid_mike