foodsecure scenario approach to integrate modellers and
TRANSCRIPT
FOODSECURE scenario approach to
integrate modellers and stakeholders
contributions
Hans van Meijl (LEI) and Ewa Tabeau (LEI)
FOODSECURE Conference, Addis Ababa, 7-9 October 2013
MODELLING AND SCENARIOS IN FOODSECURE
• WP5
• WP7
• WP9
• WP10
• WP11
ALL TAKE A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE:
• WP5: to integrate the views from stakeholders on FNS futures into the project, in terms
of explorative scenarios, normative views & options, and roadmapping / Navigator on
FNS futures
• WP7: to provide foresight on FNS towards 2050, by modelling the impact of long-term
supply drivers and drivers of food and non-food (energy) demand in several scenarios
• WP9: to advance technological and institutional prospects and to seek pathways to
sustainably enhance FNS at international and local level
• WP10: to assess local FNS policy strategies and the coherence of EU aid and
development policies
• WP11: to identify pathways to more coherent and effective EU policies in the area of
trade, agriculture, energy and macroeconomic stabilisation, in a way that promotes
global FNS
WP5, WP7, WP9, WP10, WP11
• Stakeholders play an important role in FOODSECURE scenario research
• Stakeholders produce exploratory scenarios, normative visions and road-
mapping / Navigator in WP5
• These are building blocks of an integrated foresight framework for
assessment of alternative policy options on FNS
• Results from the integrated foresight framework are needed for external
audiences and become part of the Navigator
• Stakeholders enhance the Navigator to meet the needs of external users
WP5: What do stakeholders do?
WP5 builds on the Story and
Simulation approach (Alcamo 2008)
• Basic idea: to explore futures of
human-natural systems by
combining simulation models
with qualitative storylines
• Central assumption:
combination of ‘qualitative’ with
‘quantitative’ scenario
approaches benefits from the
advantages of both
WP5: How stakeholders results are absorbed?
Source: Kosow, 2011
WP5 Timeline
Vienna Feb 2013 - modellers
Bruges Sep 2013 – 1st stakeholders
Feb 2014 – 2nd stakeholders
Nov 2015 – roadmapping/ Navigator
Nov 2014 -1st visions & options
Feb 2015 – 2nd visions & options
SAS
WP7: A computational laboratory of scenarios
for the future
• Scenarios to quantify the world market impact and FNS
impact of the exploratory scenarios developed in WP-5
(stakeholders scenarios)
• Strategies to address policy outcomes studied in Guidance
WP-9, WP-10 and WP-11
(policy “what if we do”)
Scenarios to be produced in FOODSECURE
What are scenarios?
• “Plausible and often simplified descriptions of how the future may
develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of
assumptions on key driving forces and relationships” (Carpenter et al.
2005)
• Scenarios differ from facts, forecasts, predictions and speculations
• But include explorations and projections
Herman Kahn, the ‘father’
of scenario thinking
How are scenarios produced?
Source: PBL, 2012
Van Dijk 2012: Review of recent scenario studies
Number
Total number of scenarios 43
Total number of studies 12
Global assessments 2
Report by international institutions 9
Journal article 1
Main focus
Food security and climate change 1
Food supply and prices 6
Ecosystems 1
Climate change 1
Biofuels 1
Environmental change 2
Including: IFPRI, Oxfam, Agrimonde, IAASTD, FAO, MA.
Food security outcomes
• Food prices (8 studies)
• Calorie availability (8 studies)
• Undernourishment (3 studies)
• Child malnutrition (4 studies)
Long run drivers: Income and population growth
Agriculture at Crossroads (2010) -
International Assessment of
Agricultural Knowledge, Science,
and Technology for Development
(IAASTD).
World Agriculture Towards
2030/2050 (WAT2050) -
FAO.
Food price scenarios: Cereals
Undernourishment scenarios
Stylized model of (long run) food security: conventional drivers
Food and
Nutrition Security Availability
Access
Utilization Supply
Land (degradation)
Water (scarcity)
R&D & Technical change
Climate change
Demand
Population growth
Urbanisation
Income growth
Food system Value chains
Prices
Trade
Policies
Institutions
Stylized model of (long run) food security: upcoming drivers
Food and
Nutrition Security Availability
Access
Utilization Supply
Land (degradation)
Water (scarcity)
R&D & Technical change
Climate change
Ecosystem services
Demand
Population growth
Urbanisation
Income growth
Poverty and inequality
Diets
Bio-energy and bio-materials
Food system Value chains
Prices
Trade
Policies
Institutions
Stylized model of (long run) food security: new drivers
Food and
Nutrition Security Availability
Access
Utilization Supply
Land (degradation)
Water (scarcity)
R&D & Technical change
Climate change
Ecosystem services
Post harvest losses
Alternative sources (e.g. insects)
Farm structure
Demand
Population growth
Urbanisation
Income growth
Poverty and inequality
Diets
Bio-energy and bio-materials
Food waste
Food system Value chains
Prices
Trade
Policies
Institutions
Conclusions: future research agenda
• More scenario studies needed that focus exclusively on food and nutrition
security (now only one)
• Studies and models should provide more detailed assessments of food
accessibility and food nutrition
• Several key (new) driving forces should be addressed, in particular: farm
structure, bio-based economy, inequality and food waste
• Make sure global-level analysis is based on local micro-level insights
Several more aspects to be addressed in FOODSECURE:
• implications of endogenous technology change, climate change, and scarce
production factors, such as land, water and soil nutrients for FNS at various
levels
• Scenarios that take into account household distribution and nutrition
Thank you