AMS 2019

Florence Rabier

Data Assimilation and Ensembles

EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS

IRMA operational (18km ENS) vs 5km

3

5 more instruments per year

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

POES Suomi-NPP JPSS Metop FY3 CHAMP GRACE

COSMIC COSMIC-2 CNOFS SAC-C TERRASAR-X TANDEM-X DMSP

TRMM GCOM-W/C GPM Megha Tropiques AQUA AURA TERRA

ERS-1/2 QuikSCAT Oceansat RapidSCAT HY2 ENVISAT JASON

Saral/Altika Cryosat Meteosat GOES Himawari FY2+4 SMOS

SMAP EarthCARE ADM Aeolus GOSAT Sentinel 3 Sentinel 5p OCO-2

Number of satellite data products operationally monitored at ECMWF

Active

Larger

frozen

particles,

particle

size and

shape

Cloud

particles,

lighter

precip.

Ground radar

Infraredhigh-freq

Microwave

low-T-soundingEarth

radiation

budget Cloud fraction,

cloud top

height, multiple

layers

Size of water

cloud particles

Sub-mm

Ice particle

size, shape,

orientation

Lightning

Vertically

resolved

Melting

particles

Cloud ice

water

Rain, including

particle size

Sub-FOV

heterogeneity

& structure

Vertically

resolved

Cloud

liquid

water

Solar

Rain gauge

Cloud

particle

size and

number

Cloud

cover

radar

All-sky assimilation: observations

45r1: a major step towards semlessness

EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS

Earth System components

EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS

Coupled models Integrated Forecasting System (IFS)

Ocean

Waves

Sea Ice

Land

Atmosphere

Coupled data assimilation (CDA) continuum / spectrum

8EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS

No coupling

Delayed observation information

transfer

Freedom to plug together different

timescales and methods

Immediate observation information transfer

Constrained to 4D-Var timescales and framework

WCDA Quasi SCDA Full coupling

Weakly Coupled Data Assimilation Strongly coupled Data Assimilation

+-

Finite Volume Module: A scalable model framework

9EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS

Enhanced flexibility to be able to take

advantage of evolving HPC architectures

Existing IFS

New IFS-FVM

Ensembles

Optimal use of observations

Earth-system model and assimilation

Scalability