finding renewable energy scenarios with the crash-barrier principle:
DESCRIPTION
Barriers. Limited Resources. Market Expansion. Limited Demand. Market. Limited Production. Limited Finance. Time. Phase 1. Phase 2. Phase 4. Phase 3. Finding Renewable Energy Scenarios with the Crash-Barrier Principle: Subsequently, different factors limit technology expansion. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Finding Renewable Energy Scenarios with the Crash-Barrier Principle: Subsequently, different factors limit technology expansion.
Phase 1: Technology cost is high and expansion requires preferential investment
Phase 2: Prices have become competitive but production capacities are limited
Phase 3: Production catches up and the market is defined by demand
Phase 4: As demand grows the availability of resources may become limiting
Time
Limited Resources
Limited Demand
Limited Production
Limited Finance
Mar
ket
Exp
ans
ion
Phase 1 Phase 3Phase 2 Phase 4
Barriers
Market
MED-CSPMED-CSPTechnology Portfolio: Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Technologies
parabolic trough (PSA) solar tower (SNL)
linear Fresnel (Solarmundo) parabolic dish (SBP)
MED-CSPMED-CSPOther Renewable Energies for Power
Wind Power (Enercon) Hydropower (Tauernkraft) Solar Chimney (SBP)
Photovoltaic (NREL) Hot Dry Rock (Stadtwerke Urach) Biomass Power (NREL)
MED-CSPMED-CSPRenewable Energy Resource Mapping
Biomass
Wind Energy
Geothermal Energy
Hydropower
Solar Energy
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Exclusion Areas for Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Plants in Southern Europe and Maghreb Countries
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Technical Potential: 20151 TWh/y (DNI > 1800 kWh/m²/y)Economic Potential: 20146 TWh/y (DNI > 2000 kWh/m²/y)Power Demand 2000: 15 TWh/y Power Demand 2050: 235 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE)Tentative CSP 2050: 150 TWh/y (Scenario CG/HE)Coastal Potential: 300 TWh/y (< 20 m a. s. l.)Water Demand 2050: 1.2 TWh/y (Power for Desalination)
Solar Thermal Electricity Generating Potentials in Morocco
Coastal Potential - Morocco (20 m a. s. l.)
020406080
100120140160
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
> 28
00
DNI [kWh/m²a]
Ele
ctri
city
Po
ten
tial [
TW
h/y
]
Technical Potential - Morocco
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
> 28
00
DNI [kWh/m²a]
Ele
ctri
city
Po
ten
tial [
TW
h/y
]
DNI [kWh/m²/y]
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Renewable Electricity Potentials in TWh/year
for Iran, the CSP potentials are still rough estimates
well documented
resource taken from literature
from 5000 m temperature map considering areas with T>180°C as economic
from agricultural (bagasse) and municipal waste and renewable solid biomass potentials
from DNI and CSP site mapping taking sites with DNI > 2000 kWh/m²/yas economic
from wind speed and site mapping taking sites with a yield > 14 GWh/y and from literature (EU)
No information except for EU. General PV growth rates used for calculation
No information except for EU mid term economic potentials
Remarks:
Tech. Econ. Tech. Econ. Tech. Econ. Tech. Econ. Tech. Econ. Tech. Econ. Tech. Econ.Bahrain 5.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.2 36 33 n.a. 0.1 n.a. 0.3 n.a. n.a.Cyprus 24.0 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.5 23 20 10.0 0.5 n.a. 0.2 n.a. 0.2Iran 88.0 48.0 n.a. 11.3 n.a. 23.7 > 20000 n.a. 8.0 n.a. 16.0 n.a. n.a.Iraq 90.0 67.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.6 30806 28647 300.0 10.0 n.a. 6.8 n.a. n.a.Israel 44.0 7.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.2 318 318 22.0 0.5 n.a. 4.0 n.a. n.a.Jordan n.a. 0.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.6 6434 6429 109.0 2.0 n.a. 4.5 n.a. n.a.Kuwait n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.8 1525 1525 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.5 n.a. n.a.Lebanon 2.0 1.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.8 19 14 9.0 0.2 n.a. 1.5 n.a. n.a.Oman n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.1 20611 19404 44.0 8.0 n.a. 4.1 n.a. n.a.Qatar n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.1 823 792 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.0 n.a. n.a.Saudi Arabia n.a. n.a. n.a. 70.9 n.a. 9.9 125260 124560 300.0 20.0 n.a. 13.9 n.a. n.a.Syria 7.0 4.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.7 10777 10210 98.0 12.0 n.a. 8.5 n.a. n.a.UAE n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.7 2078 1988 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.0 n.a. n.a.Yemen n.a. n.a. n.a. 107.0 n.a. 9.1 5143 5100 8.0 3.0 n.a. 25.8 n.a. n.a.Algeria 5.0 0.5 n.a. 4.7 n.a. 12.1 169440 168972 7278 35.0 n.a. 13.9 n.a. n.a.Egypt 80.0 50.0 n.a. 25.7 n.a. 15.3 73656 73656 7650 90.0 n.a. 36.0 n.a. n.a.Libya n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.7 139600 139477 5363 15.0 n.a. 3.9 n.a. n.a.Morocco 5.0 4.0 n.a. 10.0 n.a. 14.3 20151 20146 1188 25.0 n.a. 17.0 n.a. n.a.Tunisia 1.0 0.5 n.a. 3.2 n.a. 3.2 9815 9244 50.0 8.0 n.a. 5.0 n.a. n.a.Greece 25.0 12.0 n.a. 4.7 n.a. 11.8 44 4 136.0 15.0 n.a. 4.0 n.a. 4.0Italy 105.0 54.0 n.a. 9.8 n.a. 86.4 88 7 223.0 60.0 n.a. 10.0 n.a. 3.0Malta n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.2 2 2 n.a. 0.2 n.a. 0.1 n.a. 0.1Portugal 33.0 20.0 n.a. 7.0 n.a. 26.6 436 142 63.0 20.0 n.a. 3.0 n.a. 7.0Spain 70.0 41.0 n.a. 9.4 n.a. 111.1 1646 1278 226.0 60.0 n.a. 5.0 n.a. 13.0Turkey 216.0 122.0 n.a. 150.0 n.a. 55.0 405 131 200.0 55.0 n.a. 28.6 n.a. n.a.Total 432 414 402 632099 447 218 27
Wind PV Wa/TiHydro Geo Bio CSP
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Industrial Plant Production Capacity of CSP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Year
CS
P G
row
th R
ate
[%/y
]
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Ab
solu
te C
SP
Gro
wth
[T
Wh
/y]
CSP Growth Rate Absolute CSP Growth
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Old Power Plants in Morocco
Total Capacity 2003 = 4 700 MW
Coal
Gas/Oil
Hydropower
Wind + Other RE
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Year
Sha
re o
f Pla
nts
inst
alle
d be
fore
200
3
Power Plant Inventory (Morocco)
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Development of Fuel Prices, Solar Share of CSP Plants and CO2-Sequestration Share of Fossil Power Generation in Europe within the MED-CSP Scenario
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Ave
rag
e P
ric
e o
f O
il [$
/bb
l] a
nd
C
oal
[$/
ton
]
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
So
lar
Sh
are
of
CS
P P
lan
ts
Oil / Gas Price $/bbl Coal Price $/tonCSP Solar Share [%] CO2-Sequestration Share [%]
MED-CSPMED-CSPElectricity Cost of Power Technologies (Example)
Egypt
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Ele
ctri
city
Co
st o
f Ne
w P
lan
ts
[c/k
Wh
]
Photovoltaics
Wind
Wave / Tidal
Biomass
Geothermal
Hydropower
CSP Plants
Oil / Gas
Coal
Discount Rate 5 %2000-$
LEC New Plants c/kWh 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Wind 6.2 5.2 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6Photovoltaics 31.9 14.7 7.4 5.8 4.6 4.2Geothermal 19.1 7.4 5.3 4.5 4.4 4.3Biomass 7.6 6.2 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2CSP Plants 7.9 7.1 5.2 4.5 4.1 4.0Wave / Tidal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Hydropower 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3Oil / Gas 5.4 5.8 6.2 6.7 7.2 7.8Coal 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.5
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Electricity Generation All Countries
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Ele
ctric
ity P
rodu
ctio
n [T
Wh/
a] Photovoltaics
Wind
Wave / Tidal
Geothermal
Biomass
Hydropower
CSP Plants
Oil / Gas
Coal
Nuclear
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Electricity Mix 2000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Portugal
SpainIta
ly
Greece
Malta
Cypru
s
Morocc
o
Algeria
Tunisia
LibyaEgyp
t
Turkey
Jord
anIsr
ael
LebanonSyri
aIra
nIra
q
Saudi Ara
bia
Yemen
Oman
Bahrain
UAEQatar
Kuwait
Sha
re o
f Ele
ctric
ity G
ener
atio
n in
TW
h/y
Photovoltaics
Wind
Wave / Tidal
Geothermal
Biomass
Hydropower
CSP Plants
Oil / Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Europe North Africa Western Asia Arabian Peninsula
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Electricity Mix 2050
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Portugal
SpainIta
ly
Greece
Malta
Cypru
s
Morocc
o
Algeria
Tunisia
LibyaEgyp
t
Turkey
Jord
anIsr
ael
LebanonSyri
aIra
nIra
q
Saudi Ara
bia
Yemen
Oman
Bahrain
UAEQatar
Kuwait
Sha
re o
f Ele
ctric
ity G
ener
atio
n in
TW
h/y
Photovoltaics
Wind
Wave / Tidal
Geothermal
Biomass
Hydropower
CSP Plants
Oil / Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Europe North Africa Western Asia Arabian Peninsula
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Installed Capacity All Countries
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity [G
W]
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Photovoltaics
Wind
Wave / Tidal
Geothermal
Biomass
Hydropower
CSP Plants
Oil / Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Peak Load
At any time, the electricity supply system must cover the power demand with 25 % reserve ( firm capacity )
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Peak Load Day in Egypt 2001 - Scenario CG/HE
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour [h]
Po
wer
[G
W]
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
fuel
csp
geo
hydro
bio
pv
wind
Peak Load Day in Egypt 2020 - Scenario CG/HE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour [h]
Po
wer
[G
W]
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
fuel
csp
geo
hydro
bio
pv
wind
Peak Load Day in Egypt 2030 - Scenario CG/HE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour [h]
Po
wer
[G
W]
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
fuel
csp
geo
hydro
bio
pv
wind
Peak Load Day in Egypt 2050 - Scenario CG/HE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 12 13 1415 16 17 1819 20 21 2223 24
Hour [h]
Po
wer
[G
W]
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
fuel
csp
geo
hydro
bio
pv
wind
Power Generation on the Peak Load Day in Egypt
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Portugal
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Ele
ctri
city
[T
Wh/
y]
Photovoltaics
Wind
Wave / Tidal
Biomass
Geothermal
Hydropower
CSP Plants
Oil / Gas
Coal
Portugal
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Inst
alle
d P
ower
Cap
acity
[G
W]
0
5
10
15
20
25Photovoltaics
Wind
Wave / Tidal
Biomass
Geothermal
Hydropower
CSP Plants
Oil / Gas
Coal
Peak Load
Portugal
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
Ele
ctri
city
Cos
t of
New
Pla
nts
[c
/kW
h]
Photovoltaics
Wind
Wave / Tidal
Biomass
Geothermal
Hydropower
CSP Plants
Oil / Gas
Coal
Portugal
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
CO
2-E
mis
sion
s of
Pow
er
Gen
erat
ion
[Mt/
y]
BAU
Photovoltaics
Wind
Wave / Tidal
Biomass
Geothermal
Hydropower
CSP Plants
Oil / Gas
Coal
CO2 Sequestration
EU Country (Portugal)
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Portugal
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Rel
ativ
e E
lect
rici
ty E
xpen
ses
(1=
Yea
r 20
00)
BAU / CoalMED-CSP
Annual Expenses of Electricity Generation of Business as Usual and MED-CSP Scenarios compared to the Year 2000
Added Cost 2000 – 2015:
1 B$
Avoided Cost2015 - 2030
4 B$
With CO2 Sequestration
IEA Start Values:Oil: 25 $/bbl, Esc. 1%/y Coal: 49 $/t, Esc. 1 %/y
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Morocco
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Ele
ctri
city
[T
Wh/
y]
Photovoltaics
Wind
Wave / Tidal
Biomass
Geothermal
Hydropower
CSP Plants
Oil / Gas
Coal
Morocco
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Inst
alle
d P
ower
Cap
acity
[G
W]
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80Photovoltaics
Wind
Wave / Tidal
Biomass
Geothermal
Hydropower
CSP Plants
Oil / Gas
Coal
Peak Load
Morocco
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Ele
ctri
city
Cos
t of
New
Pla
nts
[c
/kW
h]
Photovoltaics
Wind
Wave / Tidal
Biomass
Geothermal
Hydropower
CSP Plants
Oil / Gas
Coal
Morocco
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
CO
2-E
mis
sion
s of
Pow
er
Gen
erat
ion
[Mt/
y]
BAU
Photovoltaics
Wind
Wave / Tidal
Biomass
Geothermal
Hydropower
CSP Plants
Oil / Gas
Coal
MENA Country (Morocco)
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Morocco
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Rel
ativ
e E
lect
rici
ty E
xpen
ses
(1=
Yea
r 20
00)
BAU / CoalMED-CSP
Annual Expenses of Electricity Generation of Business as Usual and MED-CSP Scenarios compared to the Year 2000
Added Cost 2000 – 2020:
1.4 B$
Avoided Cost2020 - 2030
1.9 B$
No CO2 Sequestration
IEA Start Values:Oil: 25 $/bbl, Esc. 1%/y Coal: 49 $/t, Esc. 1 %/y
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Cost Difference between the MED-CSP Scenario and a Business as Usual Policy Scenario
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Dif
fere
nce
[M
$/y] Avoided Cost
250 B$
Added Cost75 B$
Oil 25 $/bblCoal 49 $/ton
Esc. 1%/y
MED-CSPScenario
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Cost Difference between the MED-CSP Scenario and a Business as Usual Policy Scenario
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Dif
fere
nce
[M
$/y]
No CO2 Sequestration MED-CSP Standard35$/bbl, 55 $/ton All CO2 Sequestration
MED-CSPMED-CSPTotal CO2-Emissions of the Power Sector
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
CO
2-E
mis
sion
s of
Pow
er G
ener
atio
n [M
t/y]
BAUPhotovoltaicsWindWave / TidalBiomassGeothermalHydropowerCSP PlantsOil / GasCoal
Total avoided emissions until 2050: 28 billion tonsPer Capita Emission in 2050: 0.58 tons/cap/year
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Non-sustainable water includes overexploitation of groundwater resources and desalination with fossil fuels.
Sustainable water includes all natural surface and groundwater resources that are renewable and exploitable, plus increasingly re-used wastewater. A possible reduction of renewable water due to climate change is not considered.
CSP-Desalination includes seawater desalination on the basis of renewable energy, mainly CSP, in each country within the scenario CG/HE.
Population in Algeria
05
101520253035404550
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
[m
illio
ns]
UrbanRural
Water Demand in Algeria
Agricultural
Domestic
Industrial
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20002005
20102015
20202025
20302035
20402045
2050
Wat
er
De
man
d [b
illio
n m
³/y]
Water Supply in Algeria
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Year
Wat
er
Sup
ply
[bill
ion
m³/
y]
Sustainable Water Non-Sustainable CSP-Desalination
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Water Supply in Yemen
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Year
Wat
er S
up
ply
[b
illio
n m
³/y]
Sustainable Water Non-Sustainable CSP-Desalination
Water Demand in Yemen
Agricultural
Domestic
0
5
10
15
20
25
20002005
20102015
20202025
20302035
20402045
2050
Wat
er
De
man
d [b
illio
n m
³/y]
Population in Yemen
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
[m
illio
ns
]
UrbanRural
Non-sustainable water includes overexploitation of groundwater resources and desalination with fossil fuels.
Sustainable water includes all natural surface and groundwater resources that are renewable and exploitable, plus increasingly re-used wastewater. A possible reduction of renewable water due to climate change is not considered.
CSP-Desalination includes seawater desalination on the basis of renewable energy, mainly CSP, in each country within the scenario CG/HE.
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Population in MENA
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
20002005
20102015
20202025
20302035
20402045
2050
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
[m
illio
ns
]
UrbanRural
Water Demand in MENA
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
20002005
20102015
20202025
20302035
20402045
2050
Year
Fre
shw
ater
Dem
and
[bill
ion
m³/
y]
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
Agricultural Domestic Industrial Sustainable Water
Water Supply in MENA
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Year
Wat
er D
eman
d an
d S
uppl
y bi
llion
m³/
a
Sustainable Supply Non-Sustainable Supply CSP-Desalination
Sustainable water deficit
today: 60 billion m³/y 2050: 160 billion m³/y
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Renewable and Unsustainable Capacities for Freshwater in MENA
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
20002005
20102015
20202025
20302035
20402045
2050
Year
Ren
ewab
le D
esal
inat
ion
[b
illio
n m
³/y] Non-Sustainable
North AfricaArabian PeninsulaWestern Asia
MED-CSPMED-CSP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
20002005
20102015
20202025
20302035
20402045
2050
Year
Inst
alle
d P
ow
er C
ap
acit
y [
GW
]
BahrainYemenUAESaudi ArabiaQatarKuwaitOmanEgyptLibyaTunisiaAlgeriaMoroccoLebanonTurkeyIranIraqJordanIsrael + PASyria
Renewable Power Capacities for Sea Water Desalination
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Solar / Hybrid Electricity and Combined Heat & Power
Fuel
Power Cycle
Concentrating Solar Collector
Field
Solar Heat
Thermal Energy Storage
Process Heat
• solar electricity
• integrated fossil fuel backup
capacity, power on demand
• increased solar operating hours, reduced fuel input
• additional process heat for cooling, drying, seawater desalination, etc.
Electricity
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Cost of Electricity by CSP in Cogeneration with MED for 4, 9 and 14% Rate of Return, Water Cost 0.50 $/m³
0.000
0.020
0.040
0.060
0.080
0.100
0.120
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Year
Ele
ctric
ity C
ost
in $
/kW
h
9 % Interest Rate
4 % Interest Rate
14 % Interest Rate
Peaking Load
Base Load
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Cost of Water desalted by CSP in Cogeneration with MED for 4, 9 and 14% Rate of Return, Electricity Cost 4 ct/kWh
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Year
Cos
t of W
ater
in $
/m³
Cost of Irrigation
9 % Interest Rate
4 % Interest Rate
14 % Interest Rate
Cost Range of City Water in MENA
Cost Range in Selected Remote Regions
MED-CSPMED-CSP
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Pow
er D
eman
d an
d S
uppl
y [T
Wh/
y]
Year
Old Plants MENA CSP Export CSP Desalination CSP MENANew Plants MENA Total Demand MENA Total Demand EU
Interconnecting MENA and Europe:The TRANS-CSP Study
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Alternatives for Sustainable Energy and Water in EU-MENA
Oil/Gas: High Cost Escalation Growing Domestic Needs will compete with Exports Climate vs. Cost (CO2-Sequestration adds 2 - 3 ct/kWh)
Coal: Less Cost Escalation than Oil & Gas MENA would shift from Energy Exporter to Energy Importer New Source will require Infrastructure and Investment Climate vs. Cost (CO2-Sequestration adds 2 - 3 ct/kWh)
Nuclear: Cost Escalation & Depletion like Oil MENA would shift from Energy Exporter to Energy Importer New Source will require Infrastructure and Investment Security vs. Cost (Nuclear Waste Disposal, Proliferation)
Solar: Cost De-Escalation and High Growth Rates MENA will export Oil/Gas + Solar Power New Source will require Infrastructure and Investment Climate + Security + Low Cost
60 %
20 %
5 %
15 %
2000
80 %
0 %
5 %
15 %2050
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Nuclear Fusion Renewable Energy Mix
1st plant scheduled in year 2050 2006
Capacity share 2050 0.7 % 70 %
Additional Cost until 2050 75 billion $ 75 billion $ *
Electricity Cost 2050 12 cent/kWh 5 cent/kWh
Avoided Cost until 2050 0 250 billion $ *
Avoided CO2 until 2050 0 28 billion tons
Unit size 5000 MW 0 - 5000 MW
Range of Application flat base load base - peak load
Who will own it ? OECD EU-MENA
Source MPI MED-CSP
What about fusion in EU-MENA ?
* using the reference parameters of MED-CSP scenario CG/HE
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Main Results of the MED-CSP Study
The present energy system is not sustainable and will lead to a critical situation in terms of economical, social and environmental stability.
The demand for energy will grow by three times until 2050 in EU- MENA, water demand will almost double in the MENA region
Fossil and nuclear energy sources have triggered economic development in the North Western Hemisphere, but cannot be expected to do the same for the rest of the world
A well balanced mix of renewable energy technologies is the least cost option for energy and water security in EU-MENA
The deployment of renewable energies must be accelerated by adequate policy instruments
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Policies for Sustainability in the Energy Sector
International Agreement on RES Deployment Strategy
Create Instruments adapted to each Country
Feed in Tariffs
Kyoto Instruments (CT, CDM, JI)
Subsidies (Soft Loans, Grants)
Bidding System and Quotas
Tax Credits
Grid Enhancement
Base Decisions on world market prices
Mobilisation Fund ?
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Two contemporary statements from the energy establishment:
The elevation of energy costs due to the introduction of renewable energies would seriously burden our economy.
As expected, our economy can cope with the present fuel price escalation rates.
One contemporary statement from F.Trieb:
The additional cost caused by fuel price escalation since 2003, even if it would be reversed, already exceeds the total additional cost of market introduction of renewables in the next 20 years !
Thank You !