final proposal - prateek gupta -charlie
TRANSCRIPT
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Market Research
Proposal
PepsiCo -Is PepsiCo
Healthy?
Submitted by Submitted to-
Prateek Gupta Dr. Teoh
Charlie
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AMITY GLOBAL BUSINESS SCHOOL, NOIDA
AMITY UNIVERSITY UTTAR PRADESH
CERTIFICATE OF ORIGIN
This is to certify that PRATEEK GUPTA, a student of MBA from AGBS Amity University, Noida
under fulfilment of the course has successfully done his project on -Market Research Proposal
PepsiCo -Is PepsiCo Healthy?
We declare that the work done by him is his own and original to the best of our knowledge.
We wish him success and bright future in life.
Authorized signatory
Name
Co-Founder
(Signature)
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
It is not a single mans effort which is sufficient for the accomplishment of a Research. Various
factors, situations and persons integrate to provide the background for accomplishment of a task
requires the effort of so many people and the work is not different.
I acknowledge here the names of those people who have been instrumental in preparation of their
Research. I would like to thank Mr DEEPAK GOEL for his guidance and constant support in thesuccessful completion of my project.
I would also like to thank the entire team of TEST FORMULA EDUCATION PVT. LTD. for the
constant support and help in the successful completion of my project.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The proposed research aims to measure the PepsiCo brands consumer perception as healthywithin the North American market and to analyze the results in order to gather data to generaterecommendations on the strategic marketing of the company.
The research will survey a sample of 1,000 people in the US different by age, income, locationand personal preferences for drinks. The population will be selected randomly by a computer byusing the grocery store loyalty programs members as reference. The extent of the research iswide enough to ensure that the survey will give us a framework of the feelings towards the healthyfeature of the PepsiCo brands. A questionnaire will be administered to the selected sample overthe Internet and the results will be collected and analyzed by a computer. The criteria under which
each question of the questionnaire has been conceived cover the main concerns for the company.For example, does the consumer perceive PepsiCo as provider of healthy drinks or not?.
The research also highlights the main possible outcomes of the survey. For each type of result,the research has already identified a strategic direction the company should take.
The research is extensive enough to provide a comprehensive understanding of the brandperception. The accuracy of the research is ensured by the size of the sample, the techniquesapplied, the different features of the research which covers both qualitative and quantitativeaspects. The internet survey is in fact coupled with a series of focus groups so PepsiCo can gain areal firsthand knowledge of the opinions consumers have about the brand.
The research might suffer typical problems of any research as related to personal bias of the
surveyed population. Surveyed people in fact may have issues that can prevent them fromanswering accurately to the questionnaire and this possibility has been already addressed bydesigning the questionnaire in the easiest and less embarrassing possible way. The possibility ofnot being able to reach a customer has also been addressed by setting the computer on the wayto select an alternative number to be selected.
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Table of Content
1. INTRODUCTION
2. OBJECTIVES
3. RESEARCH DESIGN
3.1 Sampling Techniques: Qualitative/Quantitative
3.2 Data Collection Method
3.3 Measurement
3.4 Analysis Procedures
4. EXPECTED RESULTS
4.1 Summary of Secondary Data
4.2 Expected Findings: Primary Research
4.3 Data Organized According to Related Variables
4.4 Findings Implications & Recommendations
4.5 Statistical Significance
5. RECOMMENDATIONS
6. CONCLUSION
Appendices
Sources
1 INTRODUCTION
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PepsiCos corporate mission is to be the leading global consumer products company with primaryfocus on convenient foods and beverages (PepsiCo Annual Report, 2010). Due to growingdemand from our customers, consumer advocacy organizations and heavy political pressure toadd healthier snack and beverage products to our portfolio. More recently, Michael Bloomberg,Mayor of New York City, is pushing for a municipal ban on the sale of super-sized sugary drinks tohelp mitigate the growing obesity rate. Other legislators, including the FDA, are looking atimposing a soft drink tax to also help curb consumption of our primary product base. If we seekto achieve our mission, we must consistently measure our brands perception of being healthy totarget consumer markets. If we do not, we will fail to meet the growing demand from ourcustomers for new innovative and healthy food and beverage products.
2 OBJECTIVES
It is the goal of this research proposal to layout a detailed plan of how to measure this perceptionand reinforce the urgency of ensuring PepsiCo is responding to growing trends for healthier foodand beverage alternatives. We will primarily focus our research methods through qualitativemarketing research methods to fully divulge customers understanding, awareness and perceptionof PepsiCos food and beverage product lines in relation to what they perceive as healthy.
Through this assessment and information gathering, we will be able to deduce valuable consumerinsight into new and current product offerings, the success of current marketing tactics and thetrue desire of consumers health demands.
MARKETING ENVIRONMENT
MARKETING MIX
1) Product
The soft drinks market in India enjoys dynamic growth in both volume and value terms.
Carbonated drinks have become part of the culture in India and multinational companies have
maintained standards over the years to provide the nation with high-quality drinks. Rural areas of
India have driven sales of carbonated drinks to new heights as more than 60 percent of thepopulation resides in rural areas and young consumers are more attracted to advertising. Pepsi is
the most popular and leader brand in the India market and is consumed by children and adults
alike. Pepsi is a responsible corporate brand of India and have contributed a lot to the economy.
In marketing, a product is anything that can be offered to a market that might satisfy a want or
need. Until unless, the product of the company is not strong in the market, it cannot survive in the
long run.
Pepsi has a product line comprised up of carbohydrate drinks, Lays and many other products in
India. Pepsis product line satisfies consumer needs because Pepsi produces different types of
soft drinks for different consumers.
The most popular product of Pepsi is Pepsi Cola. Due to its good taste Pepsi is a well-known
product. Thus Pepsi Cola satisfies the consumers needs efficiently by launching a desired product.
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Product Line
Beverages Water Snacks Juices
Pepsi Aquafina Kurkure Tropicana
Teem Cheetos
Mirinda Lays
7-UP
Mountain
Dew
Diet Pepsi
2) Packaging
Packaging is a part of product planning in which a firm researchers, designs, and produces its
packaging.
The physical container may be a cardboard, metal, plastic or wooden box; a cellophane, wax
paper, or cloth wrapper; a glass, aluminum, or plastic jar or can; a paper bag; styro foam; some
other material; or a combination of these products frequently have more than one physical
container. But packaging depends upon the product nature as well as structure means either it is
liquid, semi liquid or solid.
In case of Pepsi Cola, they take the packaging designs by considering what is better for company
and what is better or convenient for the transportation. For protecting the syrup, Pepsi Cola uses
the glass as well as plastic bottles of different quantity.
The variants that are offered by Pepsi in terms of size and quantity,
i. 250 ml Regular Bottle
ii. 300 ml Tin
iii. 1000 ml Regular Liter Bottle
iv. 1500 ml Disposable Bottle
v. 2000 ml Jumbo Bottle
3) Price
The amounts of money charged for a product or service, or sum of the values that consumersexchange for the benefits of having or using the product or services. As price gives us the profit so
this P is very important for business price of product should be that which gives maximum benefit
to the company and which gives maximum satisfaction to the customer.
Following factors Pepsi kept in mind while determining the pricing strategy.
i. Price should be set according to the product demand of public.
ii. Price should be that which gives the company maximum revenue.
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iii. Price should not be too low or too high than the price competitor is charging.
iv. Price must be keeping the view of your target market.
v. The price of Pepsi Cola, despite being market leader is the same as that of itscompetitor Coca cola.
vi. Sometimes, Pepsi places its customers into some psychological pricing strategies byreducing a high priced bottle and consumers think that they save a lot of money from
this.
Prices of Different Bottles
i. Regular bottle e= rupees 18
ii. Non Returnable/disposable= rupees 45
iii. Liter Bottle=rupees 70
iv. 1.5 Liter Bottle= rupees 90
v. 2 Liter Bottle= rupees 105
Discounts
Pepsi Cola offers various discounts to those retailers who have the maximum sales ofPepsi products on daily, monthly and on seasonal basis. Some of the main discounts given to
the retailers are as follows:
Quality Discount
Following are discounts offered by Pepsi.
1/10 Discount
For Instance one case of Pepsi is free on buying 10 cases of Pepsi at one time.
2/20 Discount
For Instance two cases of Pepsi are free on buying 20 cases of Pepsi at one time.
Seasonal Discount
Pepsi also offers seasonal discounts schemes by reducing price in Ramadan
and on Eid. Pepsi also offers trade in allowance for retailers.
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4) Placement/Distribution Channel
The Pepsi uses the following two channels for the distribution of their products.
i. Indirect Distribution
Indirect distribution involves agency holders and distribution companies e.g.
Riaz Bottlers Pvt. Ltd. Lahore franchise has divided its region.
ii. Direct Distribution
The factory vehicles operate on 45 direct routes in Lahore selling non-
returnable bottles Litter, Pet and Can.
5) Promotions
In India Pepsi is the most liked soft drink especially by young generation so the Pepsi cola
company has devised such marketing strategy which attracted them. For this reason they started
monitoring the habits of the generation. What they saw was that the students were crazy about
cricket and usually liked to idealize them so in order to increase their sales the Pepsi cola
company paid high amounts of money to the cricketers to act as their spokes men.
Some of the most famous cricketers in the modern era have acted as spoke persons also film
stars have been acting as spoke persons.
The Pepsi cola company has after doing research also has introduced different size of bottles
offered at lower prices so that everyone can afford them. Also Pepsi Company has introduced
other soft drinks including Mountain Dew, Seven Up and Mirinda. Pepsi company has introduced
other flavors such as Pepsi twist, Pepsi max diet Pepsi.
Pepsi Cola Company has also become official sponsors of India cricket and has sponsored a
number of series.
Also Pepsi has donated a lot to the earth quake victims and has launched a number of prize
schemes to attract new customers
As a result of this marketing strategy Pepsi has become the largest seller of soft drinks in India
and is slowly forming a monopoly in drinks market. Although many soft drinks like Pepsi have
been introduced such as Amrit Cola, RC Cola offered at lower prices but none of these drinks
have been able replace it.
Frequency of the Pepsi ads varies from time to time. When the season is on Pepsi do heavy
advertisement especially in Ramzan days or Eid occasions but this advertisement not remain
consist. We can hardly see the ads of Pepsi now as there is winter season.
3 RESEARCH DESIGN
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3.1 Sampling techniques
The research will be carried out over a selected sample of the population. Since our target are allcurrent Pepsi customers, we cannot perform a random selection. Instead we will frame a selectedpopulation using the loyalty cardsof grocery stores as reference. Those cards in fact represent apowerful marketing tool because of the data that help gathering. We are able to realize if acustomer has ever purchased a Pepsi drink and therefore if he or she can be included in the
survey population to help Pepsi understand what the perception is among consumers of differentage, gender, income and personal preferences in terms of drinks.
Quantitative Research
Once the grocery outlets throughout the US have been decided (4 different chains that all sellPepsi drinks), the approach used will be the systematic sampling. The population will berepresented by 10,000 customers of these 4 chains randomly selected and the sample size will be1,000. The selection will be performed with a probability method: every tenth person from thepopulation of 10,000 is selected for the sample. Since the selectee will be identified by his/heremail address, it will be possible to reach him/her over the email and ask to fill a brief onlinequestionnaire. The computer will also randomly select a second, much smaller sample (30 people)for the conjoint analysis (see the measurement section).
Qualitative Research
The probability method will be also used to select participants to the qualitative part of theresearch, the focus groups. For the focus groups the sample size is much smallersince we need15 people only and the selection will be performed again using a probability method: this timethe 667thperson will be called to be part of the focus group (10,000 / 15). If he/she is not availableor cannot be reached, we will proceed with the 668 thand the 666thperson. See appendix 1 for TimeRequirements and Sampling Process.
3.2 Data Collection Method
Quantitative
For the quantitative part, the questionnaire will be filled out over the internet. The selectedcustomer will be sent a link over the email: the link will give him/her access to the questionnaireand by clicking on submit the answers will be collected and the results processed.
Potential Issues
1) The customers email address might not be valid anymore;
2) The customer might just ignore/trash the email and not fill the questionnaire;
3) The customer might be inaccurate in filling the questionnaire due to inability to formulate a
coherent response or unwillingness to respond accurately due to such reasons as: timepressure, fatigue, personal bias over privacy or other personal matters, lack of information,and response style.
These issues are considered in the margin of error and therefore the computer will select anothercustomer in the place of the unreachable one. While the first two types of issues can be fixed bythe computer, the machine has no control over the issue no.3 where the problems are connectedto the data collection method itself: the interviewer has no interaction with the customer but also
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the environment where the survey is performed can help because the customer is in front ofhis/her computer in a location of his/her choice.
Qualitative
For the qualitative research, the customer will be reached over the phone and asked to participateto a focus group on Pepsi drinks. He/she will be compensated for the participation with a gas
reimbursement and a $20 gift card.
The focus group will be executed in an ad-hoc location with a one-way mirror behind which theresearcher will sit and observe the reactions of the participants to the questions asked. The plan isto perform all focus groups in one day, from morning to evening. The moderator will ask thequestion and help frame the discussion among the participants; the moderator will also record theanswers on tape. Then the answers will be put on paper and analyzed by the experts. The focusgroup should also include some real time administration of advertising techniques (showingcommercials or printed advertisement) in order to appreciate the immediate reaction from thecustomers.
3.3 Measurement
The main aim of this research is to investigate on the brand awareness of Pepsi, to be specific;our aim is to measure the perception of Pepsi drinks in relation to health. The first question wewould like to address in our research is whether Pepsi health drinks are conceived as reallyhealthy? The main objectives of administering this question to the respondents to measure thedemand of healthy drinks VS the various alternatives available in the market, to measure theassociation of Pepsi to health concepts and finally to measure the perception of the marketingeffort so far done by Pepsi.
In order to conduct the research, the questionnaire that will be directed to the respondents/focusgroup would cover both qualitative as well as quantitative questions. The key elements that itwould include are: Demographic data- such as the age, gender, location and income, Behavior/
Lifestyle questions which would cover factors like frequency of consumption, on what occasion theconsumption of the product takes place, if the respondents felt that the product was a post workout drink or not etc. The next important part of the questionnaire is to figure out how to re-positionthe Pepsi brand in the health market, its important in this part of the questionnaire to understandwhat percentage of people are social media active users, whether they are actively participating inthe various social media campaigns etc.
In the entire research procedure, the focus groups are for generating hypothesis and to test themqualitatively. In order to figure if the respondents actually like the product or not, ambiguousquestions could be asked such as if they consume Pepsi drink products, how would they ratePepsi products as far as heath is concerned etc. The three most important factors that can beresearched here are- age, weight and lifestyle i.e. exercise habits etc. See appendix 2 for samplequestionnaire.
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3.4 Analysis Procedure
The method of analysis that we opted for are MULTI DIMENSIONAL SCALING (MDS) andCONJOINT ANALYSIS. The reason is because our client Pepsi is a multi product company sothese methods can assist us in understanding what perceptions the customers have about theproducts and which is the main driver that is determining the purchase decisions. Its important todetermine how Pepsi is perceived as compared to its competition. How do people view the brand
in terms of its offering, price and quality? The most important problem here is of positioning itsofferings in an interpretable multi dimensional space, for which Multi dimensional scaling is used.Today in different places like schools, restaurants, movie theatres etc, there is a constant battlebetween Pepsi, Coke and other competitors to place their product in that place. Another researchtechnique that we would use is the conjoint analysis where we would administer this technique toa smaller sample size of 20 to 30 people.
4 EXPECTED RESULTS
4.1 Summary of Secondary Data
Our secondary data research provides us with the following information:
General Information on Carbonated Drinks
U.S. Consumption of carbonated soft drinks has steadily declined in the past decade, mainlydue to alternative beverages now offered by the market (health concerns in the US, primarilyrelated to obesity problems).
Healthier drinks are growing more popular. Including bottled waters, juice drinks, teas andsports drinks, bottled beverage sales rose 0.8 percent to 15.2 billion cases in 2011. Thatrepresented a slowdown from 2010, when sales rose 1.7 percent.
According to Beverage Digest, the top four sodas -- Coke, Diet Coke, Pepsi-Cola and Mt. Dew
-- all saw declining sales last year. Of those, Coke's market share was flat, while the otherthree all lost share.
There have been several studies recently proving the cardiac problems aspartame (a fakesweetener) causes, including heart attacks and strokes. Also, certain studies prove thataspartame is a multipotential carcinogen causing brain, kidney, breast, liver and lung cancer.
Health consciousness and trends in the US
More and more, consumers in the US are making choices based on what helps them createand manage optimum health. Managing health through food and drink choice is a growingconsumer trend that is already having a huge impact on purchase behavior.
Food and beverage marketers who recognize the opportunity within this trend, by developingand positioning their products in support of it will be the next brand leaders.
US consumers are more aware of the fact that the consumption of sugar-sweetenedbeverages is associated with weight and obesity, and that changes in consumption can helppredict changes in weight.
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The FDA strictly regulates carbonated drinks and bottled water as a food product. Bottledwater companies must adhere to the FDA's Quality Standards, Standards of Identity (LabelingRegulations) and Good Manufacturing Practices. The FDA has recently banned certainchemicals (sweeteners, coloring agents), on the grounds that theyve been shown to becarcinogenic and/or toxic to the consumers, cause obesity or other diseases.
Research suggests a statistically significant inverse relationship between consumption ofcarbonated beverages and bone mineral density.
PepsiCos Strategy: The New Health Kick
PepsiCos CEO is trying to redefine the playing field by promoting healthier drinks and foodunder the good-for-you and better-for-you slogans. The company is betting big on creatinghealthy foods through its Quaker Oats, Gatorade and Tropicana divisions.
Their new group of products is part of a long-term strategy to grow their nutrition businessfrom about $10 billion in revenues today to $30 billion by 2020.
Ms. Nooyi (the CEO) seeks to refocus Pepsi by stating that lifestyles have changed and thattheir company has to modify its products.
PepsiCos Struggle In March 2010, Pepsi slipped to become the third most popular soda in
America, behind Coke and Diet Coke.
Cokes Consistent Strategy Wins the Cola War:
Cokes beverage volume in North America dropped only 2% last year.
In comparison, Pepsis beverage volume in the same region plunged 8%.
Last year, Coke brands commanded 41.9% of the total market last year compared toPepsiCos 29.9%. While both brands have been declining, Pepsi is doing so at a slightly faster
rate. Coke, among others, continues to steal market share away from Pepsi.
4.2 Expected Findings: Primary Research
Basing our research objectives on the information above, we are aiming to obtain the followinginformation from our marketing research plan:
1 Do consumers perceive Pepsi as a provider of healthy drinks?
1b Is Pepsis better-for-you campaign effective?
2 Does peoples health consciousness include the consumption of healthy drinks?
2b If so, do they drink Pepsis healthy drinks?2c If not, what would be the product profile they would consume? Is there a specific type of drink
that would look more attractive to them?Are consumers engaged and reachable through social media?
3 Should Pepsi carry on with their strategy or should they change it for the sake of healthy
drinks?
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These main findings will improve our understanding of the market place and of Pepsisopportunities.
4.3 Data Organized According to Related Variables
The questions in the questionnaire will be grouped in subsections that satisfy the same researchobjective.
The responses to questions 3,4 can be summarized in a subsection titled Customerperception and brand awareness. Once it is obtained, this information will be useful to seethe extent to which the consumers are aware of the Pepsis focus in health products.
The responses to questions 3,4,5,7 can be summarized in a subsection titled Healthy
Campaign Efficiency. Once it is obtained, this information will be useful to weight the firmshealthy campaign efficiency.
The response to question 5 can be summarized in a subsection titled Healthy ConsciousnessScope. Once it is obtained, this information will be useful to evaluate how important aredrinks in peoples health-perception.
The response to questions 6 can be summarized in a subsection titled Ideal product profile.Once it is obtained, this information will be useful to recommend the launch of a specificproduct.
The responses to questions 3,4,5,6,7 can be summarized in a subsection titled Strategydecision. Once it is obtained, this information will be useful to customer perception and brandawareness. See Appendix 3 for Summary Table: Customer Perception and Brand Awareness.
4.4 Findings Implications & Recommendations
After interpreting and discussing the results obtained from the research, these are therecommendations we will be able to make depending on our findings:
IF THEN
a), c), e), h) Pepsi should carry on with their campaign
b), d), f), g) Pepsi should change their strategy and launch
a new product with a different profile.
4.5 Statistical Significance
The margin of error will be checked for all the data gathered to ensure the validity of the answersand appropriate to make recommendations based on them. Outliers will be removed and thesystematic method will ensure the participants are randomly selected for the study.
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APPENDIX
Appendix 1: Time Requi rements & Sample Process
Location framed: the US;
Time needs for the sampling process:
a) Time necessary to perform the selection of the population and the sample: 1 week;
b) Time necessary to send the questionnaire and allocated time for response: 1 month;
c) Time necessary to select participants, send RSVPs and schedule the focus groups: 1month.
Whereas task b) obviously follows task a), tasks b) and c) can be performed simultaneously.
Grocery store chains Population extracted Sample selected
Grocery store chain no.1 2500 250
Grocery store chain no.2 2500 250
Grocery store chain no.3 2500 250
Grocery store chain no.4 2500 250
Total 10,000 1000
Appendix 2: Sample Question naire
Name: Age:Gender: Location:
1) Do you consume Pepsi drink products?
Yes/ No
If yes, name some products that you consume ________________________________
2) How often do you consume these drinks?
o Everyday o2-3 times a
week
o Only on certainoccasions
3) Are you aware of Pepsis better-for-you healthy drinks offering? Can you name one?____________________________________________
4) How would you rank Pepsi in terms of its healthy drink offerings?
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1 2 3 4 5Extremely Very health-focused moderately Barely health- Unhealthy brandhealth-focused health-focused focused
5) Rank healths importance for you in your life?
High Moderate Low
If high, do your health concerns include drinking healthy drinks in a regular basis?
Yes/No
6) Describe the best healthy drink you can imagine. What attributes would make youconsume it?
________________________________
7) Are you an active social media user? If yes, what are the different social media accountsthat you have?
o Faceb
ook o Twitter
oLinked
In
o Other________________________________________________
Appendix 3: Summ ary Table: Customer Percept ion & Brand Aw areness
Customer perception and brand awareness
Related questions:N 3,4
Potential Findings:a) Pepsi is perceived as ahealthfocused brandb) Pepsi is NOT perceived as a
healthfocused brand
Healthy Campaign Efficiency
Related questions:
N 3,4,5,7
Potential Findings:
c) The campaign is penetratingd) The campaign is not penetrating
Healthy Consciousness Scope
Related questions:N 5
Potential Findings:e) People include healthy drinks intheir understanding of healthy lifestylef) People dont think of healthy
drinks when it comes to living a healthy
life
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Ideal product profile
Related questions:N 6
Potential Findings:g) Peoples idea of healthy drinksdiffer from Pepsis offering
h) Peoples description of healthy
drinks coincides with Pepsis offerings
Strategy decision
Related questions:N 3,4,5,6,7
Ultimate Findings:i) Pepsi should carry on with theircampaignj) Pepsi should change their
strategy
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SOURCES
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-18285462
http://www.pepsico.com/Brands.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pf_article_113026.html
http://www.fda.gov/Food/ResourcesForYou/Consumers/ucm046894.htm
http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/wellness/fitness-food/story/2012-02-23/Pepsis-mid-caloriesoda-aims-to-win-back-drinkers/53220558/1
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/health/2012/03/09/coke-pepsi-skirt-cancer-warning-label/
http://www.self.com/health/blogs/healthyself/2012/03/coke-and-pepsi-avoid-cancer-warning-5healthy-alternatives-to-soda.html
http://www.mpwhi.com/coke_pepsi_make_changes_to_avoid_cancer_warning.htm
http://grist.org/scary-food/2011-02-16-aspartame-soda-caramel-bpa-diet-soda-kill-you/
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/05/16/110516fa_fact_seabrook
http://www.fda.gov/Food/GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformation/GuidanceDocuments/FoodLa belingNutrition/ucm063136.htm
http://www.ehso.com/ehshome/DrWater/drwregs.php
http://beforeitsnews.com/story/1878/276/Coke,_Pepsi_Makes_Changes_to_Avoid_Cancer_Warnin g:_with_aspartame_still_causes_cancer.html
http://www.natural-health-information-centre.com/aspartame-lawsuits.html
http://articles.marketwatch.com/2009-08-04/industries/30733041_1_pepsico-chief-executive-indranooyi-pepsiamericas
http://management.fortune.cnn.com/2012/02/13/pepsi-indra-nooyi-earnings/
http://www.investmentu.com/2012/February/are-the-coke-vs-pepsi-cola-wars-over.html