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M O N DAY, OCTOBER 16, 2017 . NewStraitsTimes

Looking beyond tomorrow

KUALA LUMPUR

THE world is changing at anunprecedented pace andbecoming much more com-plex, leaving many organ-

isations grappling to remain rel-evant in this turbulent time.

It is experiencing uncertaintiesbrought on by advancing mega-trends, such as rapid urbanisation,demographic and social changes,technological breakthrough, shiftsin global economic power, climatechange and resource scarcity. Howthen we, as a country, move forwardand position ourselves for the un-foreseeable future?

This article highlights Malaysia’sforward-thinking approach incharting the country’s future di-rection through strategic foresightand scenario planning practice.

Scenario planning is a thinkingtool that helps organisations andpolicymakers to manage the futureeffectively by creating alternativeviews of possible future scenarios.

Governments around the world,such as that of Singapore, the Unit-ed Kingdom, Canada, Japan andFrance, have been using scenarioplanning to make better-informedpolicy recommendations, formu-late military strategies, conductrisk management, technologyroad-mapping and set researchpriorities.

Scenario planning is not new inMalaysia. For years, the country’spolicy and strategic positioning hadrevolved around Vision 2020. Now,

as we approach 2020, planning for adistant future is imperative.

Hence, Chapter 10 in the 11thMalaysia Plan outlines Malaysia’soutlook beyond 2020 for the nextstage of the country’s journey.

The aspirations laid out are fur-ther translated into TransformasiNasional 2050, or Vision TN50,which aims to represent the voicesof the rakyat from all walks of life,particularly the youth.

Vision 2020 and TN50 illustratehow scenario planning is used toset long-term directions for thecountry at the highest level.

Apart from Vision 2020 and TN50,the Malaysian Foresight Institute of

the Malaysian Group of High Tech-nology (MIGHT MyForesight), es-tablished in 1993, has spearheadedmany strategic foresight and sce-nario planning initiatives by dif-ferent ministries and governmentd e p a r t m e n ts .

Most of these foresight docu-ments focused on technology andindustry development, such asthose published by the NationalScience and Research Council, Sci-ence, Technology and InnovationMinistry, Energy, Green Technologyand Water Ministry, Transport Min-istry, the Economic Planning Unit(EPU) of the Prime Minister’s De-partment, Public Service Depart-

ment and Petronas.Recently, Prime Minister Datuk

Seri Najib Razak, while opening theNational Science Council Meetingon Aug 10, co m m e n d e d Chief Sec-retary to the Government Tan Sri DrAli Hamsa for spearheading the useof scenario planning methodolo-gies in the preparation of nationalaction plans in the public sector.

Najib emphasised that this was aclear message to intensify the useof scenario planning to ensure thatthe country’s long-term plans arein line with future needs.

In this regard, the Malaysian Ad-ministrative Modernisation andManagement Plann ing Un i t

(Mampu), together with the CivilService Delivery Unit of EPU, havebeen tasked to ensure that min-istries and agencies are equippedwith scenario-planning capabili-ties, including mastering the tools,methodologies and relevant keyperformance indexes.

Trainers will be deployed to as-sist public sector agencies in de-veloping their capabilities. Sce-nario planning is not an easy task.The process involves environmen-tal scanning to explore and analysekey drivers of change, which will beused to construct plausible futureimages in the form of stories.

This deviates from the conven-tional method of presenting dryfacts and figures. Therefore, sce-nario planning challenges the con-ventional thinking paradigm by em-phasising critical and creativethinking abilities.

For government agencies thatwish to embark on a scenario plan-ning exercise, they should be awareof the challenges and have the rightmind set to ensure success.

Depending on the objectives andscopes, this exercise will be a longand arduous task, which will takemonths or even years to complete.The top most critical success fac-tors are to have a clear objective,strong commitment and sufficientresources in terms of manpower,finance and time, together with agreat deal of knowledge, expertise,information and data.

Scenario planning is not aboutpredicting the future, but to preparefor a volatile, uncertain, complexand ambiguous environmentthrough the use of critical thinking,creativity and imagination.

The inculcation of future-think-ing and scenario-planning prac-tices in the public sector is timely todrive the success of Vision TN50,securing Malaysia’s competitive-ness in the international arena.

Scenario planninghelps to manage thefuture effectively bycreating alternativeviews of scenarios

ONE STEP AHEAD

(From left) Defence Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein launching the Trilateral Air Patrol with his Indonesian and Philippine counterparts; Deputy Prime MinisterDatuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi showing the Big Splash Open Data application on his handphone while taking a bus ride at a function in Universiti Malaya; and PrimeMinister Datuk Seri Najib Razak being briefed on the LRT 3 project. Governments have been using scenario planning to make policy recommendations, formulate militarystrategies, conduct risk management, technology road-mapping and set research priorities. FILE PIX