fia - the changing needs of private sector
DESCRIPTION
FIA - The Changing Needs of Private Sector. Current Uses and Future Enhancements SAF National FIA User Group Meeting New Orleans, LA March 3, 2009. Current Uses. Wood Basket Analysis – is the resource increasing, decreasing 1) Set distance radii around a mill - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Rayonier Confidential and Proprietary Information
FIA - The Changing Needs of Private Sector
Current Uses and Future Enhancements
SAF National FIA User Group Meeting
New Orleans, LA
March 3, 2009
Rayonier Confidential and Proprietary Information
Current Uses
Wood Basket Analysis – is the resource increasing, decreasing1) Set distance radii around a mill
2) Group of counties or an entire state
Supplement or Proxy Inventory Data. 1) FIA growth rates when CFI measurements are lacking
2) FIA Species or dbh distributions applied to gross inventory estimates3) FIA site index estimates
Input Data for the SRTS (Sub-Regional Timber Supply) model.
Rayonier Confidential and Proprietary Information
Wood Basket Example
The Typical Situation:A new wood using facility is scheduled to open near one of our mills. The new facility will use X tons per year.
Question: How large of an impact will this new wood consumption have on our mill’s wood basket?
Strategy:Do we need to change our species mix or other procurement strategy to keep fiber costs stable.
Rayonier Confidential and Proprietary Information
Wood Basket Example
Rayonier’s Jesup Mill
Location: Jesup, Georgia Products: Absorbent pulp and specialty pulp Wood consumption: 2.5 million green tons Wood species: Southern pine and hardwood Average Haul: 50 miles
Rayonier Confidential and Proprietary Information
Wood Basket Example NCASI’s GForest - 75 mile radius for Jesup
Rayonier Confidential and Proprietary Information
Wood Basket Example NCASI’s GForest - 75 mile radius for Jesup Volume of GS trees on timberland
Rayonier Confidential and Proprietary Information
Wood Basket Example
NCASI’s GForest - 75 mile radius for Jesup Acres, Inventory, Growth, Removals
FIA cubic foot Inventory, Growth and Removals for 75 mile radius around Jesup, GA (Lat=31.645, Lon=81.855)
---------------------- Ownership ----------------------Type Nat. Forest Other Fed. State & Local Private Total
Timberland Acres Planted 0 5,000 63,000 2,828,000 2,896,000
Natural 0 305,000 152,000 3,269,000 3,726,000Total 0 310,000 215,000 6,097,000 6,622,000
Origin Partition Softwood Hardwood Total
Inventory Planted Merch Stem 2,937,820,771 52,247,046 2,990,067,817Natural Merch Stem 2,256,938,756 3,254,500,466 5,511,439,222Total 5,194,759,527 3,306,747,512 8,501,507,039
Growth Planted Merch Stem 366,675,232 5,062,212 371,737,444Natural Merch Stem 80,532,857 111,250,575 191,783,432Total 447,208,089 116,312,787 563,520,876
Removals Planted Merch Stem 261,532,211 16,865,384 278,397,595Natural Merch Stem 30,014,667 186,550,795 216,565,462Total 291,546,878 203,416,179 494,963,057
Rayonier Confidential and Proprietary Information
Wood Basket Example
NCASI’s GForest - 75 mile radius for Jesup Inventory, Growth, and Removal Projection
Projected GS Volume (green tons) within 75 mile radius of Jesup, GAInventory is projected through 2015 using growth and removals + new additional harvest.
Year: 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Timberland Acres 6,622,000 6,588,890 6,555,946 6,523,166 6,490,550 6,458,097 6,425,807% Loss to Other Uses 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%Tons per CuFt =0.035
Planted(Green Tons) Year: 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Inventory 104,652,374 107,296,006 109,855,088 112,719,530 115,925,769 119,514,590 123,531,643
Growth 13,010,811 13,339,478 13,657,633 14,013,752 14,412,365 14,858,542 15,357,958
Current Removals 9,743,916 9,843,916 10,243,916 10,243,916 10,243,916 10,243,916 10,243,916
Harvest Reduction 0
New Harvest 100,000 400,000 0 0 0 0 0
Excess 3,166,895 3,095,562 3,413,717 3,769,837 4,168,449 4,614,626 5,114,043
Growth/Removal 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5Ratio
Rayonier Confidential and Proprietary Information
Inventory Data Example
Site Index in the Adirondacks of New York.
Rayonier Confidential and Proprietary Information
Inventory Data Example
Problem: Lack of site quality measures for newly acquired property in New York.
Rayonier Confidential and Proprietary Information
Inventory Data Example FIA and GForest to the Rescue.
Rayonier Confidential and Proprietary Information
Inventory Data Example Used the Cond table from FIADB. Calculate average site index weighted
by distance.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.!.
!.
!.!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.!.
!.
!.
!.
!.!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.!. !.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.!.
!.
!.!.
!.
!.
!.
!.!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
!.
St. Lawrence
Franklin
Hamilton
Lewis
Herkimer
Essex
Tupper Lake
Legend
!. FIA Plots w SI
Rayonier 0 3 6 9 121.5Miles µ
Rayonier Confidential and Proprietary Information
The Sub-Regional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) Can provide price forecasts for many critical needs: Budgeting, acquisition analysis, harvest scheduling
Pine Pulpwood.5%/yr demand inc.
020406080
100120140
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2005
=10
0
Price Inventory Removals
Pine Small Sawtimberno demand inc .
0
50
100
150
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2005
=10
0
Price Inventory Removals
Rayonier Confidential and Proprietary Information
Top 5 Needed Enhancements
1) Biomass
2) Biomass
3) Biomass
4) Carbon
5) SFI