fertility transition in islamic countries.pdf
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Fertility Transition in Islamic Fertility Transition in Islamic Countries: Causes, Trends and Countries: Causes, Trends and
ConsequencesConsequencesConsequencesConsequences
Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi University of Tehran &
Australian National University
Symposium on the Impact of Demographic Change in Thailand, S l A B R 3 d Fl JW M i tt B k k Salon A-B Room, 3rd Floor, JW Marriott, Bangkok
27-28 April, 2011
Size of Muslim Population in the World,2009
Source: Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life / Mapping the Global Muslim Population, 2009
Regional Distribution of Muslims, 2009
•Muslim population in world 1.57 billion•Source: Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life / Mapping the Global Muslim Population, 2009
Concentration of Muslims by Region,2009
Source: Based on Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life / Mapping the Global Muslim Population, 2009
Countries with the Largest Number of Muslims, 2009
CountryNumber of Muslims Percentage of Population Percentage of World
Countrymillion that is Muslim Muslim Population
Indonesia 203 88.2% 12.9%Pakistan 174 96.3 11.1India 161 13 4 10 3India 161 13.4 10.3Bangladesh 145 89.6 9.3Egypt 79 94.6 5.0Nigeria 78 50.4 5.0
67.2 %
Nigeria 78 50.4 5.0Iran 74 99.4 4.7Turkey 74 ∼98.0 4.7Algeria 34 98.0 2.2Morocco 32 ∼99.0 ∼2Iraq 30 97.0 1.9Sudan 30 70.0 1.9
28 99 0 8Afghanistan 28 99.0 1.8Ethiopia 28 32.8 1.8Uzbekistan 26 88.0 1.7Saudi 25 99 6 1 6
15.9 %Saudi
Arabia 25 99.6 1.6Yemen 23 99.0 1.5China 22 2.0 1.4Syria 20 86 0 1 3
Source: Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life / Mapping the Global Muslim Population, 2009 & Pop. Data - 2009 CIA World Factbook & http://islam.about.com/od/muslimcountries/a/population.htm
Syria 20 86.0 1.3Russia 16 14.0 1.0
Muslims are defined as a unique Ummah nation
Muslim Populations: Unity in Diversity
Muslims are defined as a unique ummah nationummah nation,but are in some ways very y yheterogeneous:
Shia and Sunni sectsShia and Sunni sectsSpeak different languages, they belong to around 300 ethnic groups, and thus, g o p , ,exhibit many culturesDifference socio economic Difference socio-economic status
Sunni and Shia Populationsp
Around 87-90% are Sunni Muslims and 10-13% (154 to 200 million) are Shia
Most Shias (between 68% & 80%) ( )live in just four countries: Iran, Pakistan, India and Iraq.q
h hi d f h ld’ hiMore than a third of the world’s shia Muslims live in Iran
Population Dynamics in Population Dynamics in Muslim countriesMuslim countries
Rate of Natural Increase (%)in Muslim-majority countries, 1965-70 until 2005-2010
Kuwait
Yemen4 0
4.5
Burkina-Faso
Niger
Yemen
3.5
4.0
2 5
3.0
2.0
2.5
Sierra Leone World
1 0
1.5
0.5
1.0
Source: Based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp
1965-1970 1985-1990 2005-2010
Why Population growth is high in Muslim majority countries?in Muslim-majority countries?
Mortality has declined rapidly
Fertility has been high until recently, believed to be due to Islam’s religious teachings
The impact of population momentum has also influenced population growth rate in
t isome countries
TFR Trends in Muslim-majority countries, 1960-2010
Source: Based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp
Total Fertility Rates Total Fertility Rates –– Iran, 1972Iran, 1972--20062006
8
9Total 1986 Census
U b 1986 C
7
8 Urban 1986 Census
Rural 1986 Census
Total 1996 Census
6Urban 1996 Census
Rural 1996 Census
Total 2006 Census
4
5Total 2006 Census
Urban 2006 Census
Rural 2006 Census
3
4
c ution
al o
f 2
Isla
mi
Rev
olu
Rev
ivFP
1
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
I R
Total Fertility Rates Total Fertility Rates –– Iran by province, 1972Iran by province, 1972--20062006
Sistan and Baluchestan
9
10
Ilam8
9
6
7
IRAN
Semnan
H
Tehran
4
5
Gilan
Mazandaran
Hormozgan
3
4
1
2
5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Contraceptive Prevalence Rates, 1976Contraceptive Prevalence Rates, 1976--20052005
Provincial Total Fertility Rate, Iran 2006Provincial Total Fertility Rate, Iran 2006
OwnOwn--Children Estimates of Children Estimates of ASFRs, IRAN, ASFRs, IRAN, , ,, ,19761976--20062006
300
350
rs
250
300
d 15
-49
yea
19801986150
200
omen
age
d
1976
1990100
150
Per
100
0 w
199620002006
0
50
P
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49Age group
Driving forces behind the Driving forces behind the gglow fertility in Iranlow fertility in Iran
Rural development and Health Network Rural development and Health Network SystemSystemyyCompetition: education and employment Competition: education and employment Family formation: rise of age at marriage Family formation: rise of age at marriage y g gy g gand proportion not married by ageand proportion not married by ageSmall ideal family size Small ideal family size Quality vs quantity of childrenQuality vs quantity of childrenPostponement of the 1Postponement of the 1stst and 2and 2ndnd birthbirthStopping at parity 2 or 3Stopping at parity 2 or 3Effective family planningEffective family planningy p gy p gShortening of the reproductive life spanShortening of the reproductive life span
Winner of the World Prize for the Book of the Year of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2011
TFR Trends in Major Islamic Countries, 1960-2010
Source: Based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp
Below-replacement fertility in Islamic Countries
Source: Based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp
Fertility decline in Iran and China:Iran’s fertility: Sharpest Fall Ever Recorded
Source: Based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp
Fertility Transition (CBR) in France, Iran, Algeria and Tunisia
60
AlgeriaIran
40
50
FranceTunisia
30
40
20
30
10
0
Source: Based on Donald Rowland, PRB 2010 and World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision
1750 1770 1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Duration of achieving below-replacement fertility (TFR=2.1) in in the U.S, Iran, and Tunisia(TFR 2.1) in in the U.S, Iran, and Tunisia
8
Iran
6
7
U.STunisia
4
5
2
3
4
1
2
0
* For White population in U.SSource: Based on http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/haines.demography
And UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp
Pace of demographic social changes and Pace of demographic, social changes and reactions in Europe and Muslim countries
Countries Demographic transition
Social change
Reaction
Developed countries and E
Slow Slow Gradual adaptation
Europe
Developing F t F t Anxiety Developing and Muslim countries
Fast Fast Anxiety and
conflictcountries
Education & Fertility
Education:provides access to modern ways of thinking, and lead to democracyprovides confidence to engage with the modern world, reduces infant and child mortality,rises age at marriage, reduces the probability of ever marrying, stimulates higher levels of gender equity within couple relationships
Literacy Rate of Female Adult (15+) in Muslim-Majority Countries
Maldives
Brunie MalaysiaIndonesia
KuwaitQatar90
100
Lybia
Iran
Indonesia
Turkey
70
80
Egypt
Bangladesh50
60
rate
(%
)
Morroco
Bangladesh
Pakistan
30
40
lite
racy
20
30
0
10
1980s 1990s 2000s
Source: Data adopted from UNESCO (2010)
1980s 1990s 2000s
Time
Iran - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 1970
Age
95-99
Age
75-79
85-89
N Ed ti
55-59
65-69No Education
Primary
Secondary`
35 39
45-49
55 59 Secondary
Ter
25-29
35-39
2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 1500 2000
15-19
M l P l ti i Th d F lMales Population in Thousands Females
Ref: Abbasi-Shavazi, Lutz, Hosseini, and KC, 2008; Lutz et all. 2010
Iran - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 2000
A
95-99
Age
75-79
85-89
65-69
75 79No Education
Primary`
45-49
55-59 Secondary
Ter
25-29
35-39
6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
15-19
6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Males Population in Thousands Females
Iran - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 2030
Age
95-99
Age
75-79
85-89
No Education
55-59
65-69No Education
Primary
Secondary`
35-39
45-49 Ter
15-19
25-29
5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
15 19
Males Population in Thousands Females
Ref: Abbasi-Shavazi, Lutz, Hosseini, and KC, 2008; Lutz et all. 2010
Negative impacts of Female Secondary Enrolment Rate on total fertility rates in Muslim-majority countriesj
MaliNiger
7
Burkina FasoChad
GambiaGuinea
Mali
Senegal
Iraq
OmanSaudi Arabia6
AlgeriaJordan
UAE
4
5
95
-00
EgyptLybia
Morocco
Tunisia
BangladeshIran
Kyrgizistan
Indonesia
Malaysia
Kuwait
Turkey
UAE
3
TFR
, 1
99
TunisiaTurkey
1
2
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Source: Data adopted from Abbasi-Shavazi and Jones (2005)
Female secondary enrolment (%), 1997
Education and Age at Marriage The Effect of Female Secondary Enrolment Rate on Female Singulate
Mean Age at Marriage among Muslim-Majority Countries
Lybia
30
MoroccoTunisia
26
28
Algeria
MalaysiaJordan
Kuwait
UAE
24
26
M,
20
00
Egypt
Senegal IranKirgyzistanIndonesia
Iraq
Oman
Saudi Arabia
Syria
TurkeyUAE
20
22
FS
MA
M
Burkina Faso
Chad
Gambia
GuineaMali
Ni
Bangladesh18
20
Niger
16
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Female secondary enrolment rate (%) 1997Female secondary enrolment rate (%), 1997
Source: Data for education adopted from Abbasi-Shavazi and Jones (2005) and for marriage from United Nations (2000)
Age at Marriage and FertilityThe Effect of Female Singulate Mean Age at Marriage on TFR among
Muslim-Majority Countriesj y
Burkina Faso
Ch d
Mali
Niger
Sierra Leon
Afganistan7
Chad
Gambia
Guinea
Mauritania
Senegal
MaldivesIraq
Oman Saudi Arabia
5
6
Algeria Lybia
SudanGambia
Pakistan
Tajikistan
Jordan
Qatar
Syira4
5
19
95
-00
Egypt
Lybia
MoroccoBangladesh
Iran
Kirgyzistan
TurkmenistanUzbekistan
Brunei
Malaysia
BahrainKuwait
UAE
3
TFR
,
TunisiaBrunei
Indonesia
Azerbaijan
LebanonTurkey
2
1
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
FSMAM, 2000FSMAM, 2000
Source: Data for fertility adopted from Abbasi-Shavazi and Jones (2005) and for marriage from UN (2000)
Education and Child MortalityThe Effect of Female Secondary Enrolment Rate on Infant Mortality The Effect of Female Secondary Enrolment Rate on Infant Mortality
Rate among Muslim-Majority Countries
140
Chad
GambiaGuinea
MaliNiger
100
120
99
5-0
0
Burkina Faso
Bangladesh
Iraq
80
100
y r
ate
, 1
9
Algeria
EgyptMorocco
Senegal
KirgyzistanIndonesia
40
60
mo
rtali
ty
Lybia
TunisiaIran
M l i
Jordan
Kuwait
OmanSaudi Arabia
Syria Turkey
UAE20
40
Infa
nt
MalaysiaKuwait
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Female secondary enrolment rate (%) 1997Female secondary enrolment rate (%), 1997
Source: Data adopted from Abbasi-Shavazi and Jones (2005)
Child Mortality and Fertility among Muslim-Majority Countries Majority Countries
SomaliaGaza
Yemen
8
Somalia
Burkina Faso
Chad
Mali
Niger
Senegal
Sierra Leon
AfganistanGaza
Oman6
7
Comoros
Djibouti
Sudan
Gambia
GuineaMauritaniaSenegal
MaldivesPakistan Iraq
Jordan
Oman
Saudi Arabia
5
19
95
-00
AlgeriaLybia
Morocco
W. Sahara
BangladeshIran
TurkmenistanUzbakistan
BahrainKuwait
Syria
3
4
TFR
,
TunisiaBrunei Indonesia
Azerbaijan
BahrainKuwait
Lebanon
TurkeyAlbania2
1
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
IMR 1995-00IMR, 1995-00
Source: data adopted from Abbasi-Shavazi and Jones (2005)
Education and ContraceptionThe Effect of Female Secondary Enrolment Rate on Contraceptive
P l R t M li M j it C t i Prevalence Rate among Muslim-Majority Countries
Iran
80
Algeria
Egypt
Tunisia
Bangladesh
Iran
Kigyzistan
Indonesia
Malaysia
Jordan
Turkey
UAE60
70
0 EgyptLybiaMorocco
g
Syria
40
50
%),
20
00
Gambia
Guinea IraqOman
Saudi Arabia
20
30
CP
R (
%
Burkina Faso
ChadMaliNiger
Senegal
10
20
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Female secondary enrolment ratio (%), 1997
Source: Data for education adopted from Abbasi-Shavazi and Jones(2005), for contraception from Hull (2005)
Contraception and FertilityThe Effect Contraceptive Prevalence Rate on TFR among
M li M j i C iMuslim-Majority Countries
Somalia Yemen
8
Burkina Faso
Chad
MaliNiger
Sierra Leon
Afghanistan
OmanSaudi Arabia6
7
Lybia
Sudan
GambiaGuineaMauritania
Pakistan
Tajikistan
IraqJordan
4
5
FR
Algeria
Uzbakistan
Tunisia
IranKirgyzistan
TurkmenistanEgypt
Indonesia
Lebanon
Syria
T k
UAE
3
4
TF
Azerbaijan
Turkey
1
2
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
CPRCPR
Source: data for fertility adopted from Abbasi-shavazi and Jones(2005), for contraception from Hull (2005)
Demographic compositionDemographic composition
Median Age in Muslim-majority countries, 2010
Source: Based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp
Age Structure of Muslim countriesg
Muslim populations generally characterized by a young age characterized by a young age structure.
Effect on labour migrationEffect on labour migrationHigh dependency ratios because of earlier high fertilityTask of providing universal basic educationHigh potential for further population growth: population momentum.
A i h t d d f b t Ageing has not proceeded very far but will do so rapidly from 2030
Rising Urbanization in Muslim Majority Countries, 1950-2010
Source: Based on World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision Population Database http://esa.un.org/unup
ConclusionsMuslims constitute 23% of the world population and their share will increasepopulation and their share will increaseConsiderable diversity: socioeconomic development, Culture, and sect of
li ireligionA general fertility decline in Islamic countries, associated with improved countries, associated with improved education and changes in women’s autonomySome Islamic countries have Some Islamic countries have experienced fast demographic and social transitionsA young population structure with a built-in potential for considerable further population growthfurther population growth
Shah Mosque - Isfahan
Mean number of children ever born to Muslim and non-Muslim women in Europe by age, 1999-2000non Muslim women in Europe by age, 1999 2000
Source: Westoff and Frejka, 2007
TFR in the South, Three Southernmost provinces, and Muslims in Three Southernmost Provinces, Thailand,
200320034.0
3.0
2.0TFR
1.0
0.0South 3 Most southern provinces Muslim in 3 most southern
provinces
Source: UNFPA-Thailand, 2011, Impact of Demographic Change in Thailand, UNFPA, Bangkok.
Explanation of differential Explanation of differential Muslim and non-Muslim fertility
Characteristics hypothesis (structural integration): g )
i.e Lebanese in Australia
The particularized theology propositions
Minority status hypothesisMinority status hypothesis
Interaction hypothesisInteraction hypothesis
High Muslim fertility than Hindu but less impact on the overall fertility in Indiathe overall fertility in India
Source: Based on Mishra 2004
Fertility Adaptation of Lebanese in Australia 1977-1991y p
Source: Abbasi-shavazi & McDonald 2000
Convergence of fertility of Afghan Women in Iran as compared with those in Afghanistan, 1992-2006
Source: Sadeghi and Abbasi-shavazi 2010