february 19, 2016€¦ · february 19, 2016 week in review canada – the consumer price index rose...

February 19, 2016

Week in review

Canada – The consumer price index rose 0.2% in

January, allowing the year-on-year inflation rate to jump to 2.0% from 1.6% a month ago. In seasonally adjusted terms, CPI rose 0.2% as gains for food, household operations, healthcare, recreation, alcohol/tobacco and shelter more than offset declines for clothing and transportation. The core CPI, which excludes eight of the most volatile items, was up 0.3% (NSA), which allowed the year-on-year core inflation rate to rise to 2.0%. In seasonally-adjusted terms, core CPI was up 0.2%. Excluding food and energy, prices also rose 0.2% in seasonally adjusted terms in January. The Canadian CPI data for January was hotter than expected. Energy prices were sharply down but other goods were particularly strong due to the Canadian dollar weakness via the import channel. This month again, we note very strong price increases in food (1.5%) and car prices. Assuming seasonal patterns hold in February and March, CPI is on track to grow in Q1 by 1.9% for the core, a bit below the Bank of Canada’s estimate of 2.0%. Since we expect subpar growth again this year, the economic slack should put downward pressures on prices. However, the weakness of the CAD should continue to prevent the core CPI from declining significantly. We still see core inflation to remain close to the mid-point (2.0%) of the BoC`s target range. Retail sales fell 2.2% in December versus expectations of a 0.9% drop. That’s the biggest monthly decline since 2010. Excluding autos/parts (-3.9%), sales fell 1.6% with declines in all categories with the exception of home furnishings. At the provincial level, Prince Edward Island was the only one not recording weaker month-over-month retail sales. On a year-over-year basis, sales in PEI grew 7.2%, followed by the two powerhouses BC (+7.1%) and Ontario (+5.1%), while oil-levered provinces remained at the back of the line. In real terms, overall retail sales fell 2.3%, the worst monthly drop since December 2008. December’s volume slump was the worst in seven years. It will offset some of the earlier-reported gains in manufacturing and wholesaling, perhaps restraining real GDP growth to about 0.1% in December. The quarterly picture is also not that great

considering retail volumes grew in Q4 at a much slower pace than in the prior quarter. All told, the data is much in line with our view that Canadian GDP was close to flat in the final quarter of 2015. Manufacturing shipments jumped 1.2% in December, topping consensus which was looking for just a 0.5% increase. Adding to the good news was the upward revision to the prior month to +1.2% (from +1%). In December, sales rose in 15 of the 21 broad industries, including a 3% jump for the transportation sector with gains for both autos and aerospace. In real terms, factory sales were up 1.3%. However, real inventories fell 1.3%. The gains in sales volumes should give a boost to December GDP although the observed inventory drawdown will cap the increase. The quarterly picture is less rosy. Because of the poor start to the quarter, real factory sales contracted 3.6% annualized in Q4. That probably means the manufacturing sector restrained Canadian GDP growth in the last quarter of 2015. Home sales edged up 0.5% in January according to the Canadian Real Estate Board. The number of newly listed homes fell 4.9% in January compared to a month ago, resulting in 59.2 % sales-to-new listing ratio. A reading between 40 and 60 percent is usually consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

United States – The consumer price index was

unchanged m/m in January on a seasonally adjusted basis as soft energy prices (-2.8%) were offset by gains elsewhere while food prices remained unchanged. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.3% m/m. Commodities ex food & energy prices were up 0.2% as apparel, medical care and alcohol registered strong growth. There were further gains for the owners’ equivalent rent, medical care and transportation which allowed ex-energy services CPI to rise 0.3%. Still, headline inflation rose 1.4% over the last 12 months, compared to 0.7% in December, thanks to base effects. Excluding food and energy, core inflation rose 2.2 % over the last 12 months and has been on a gradual upward trend since last May. The producer price index showed the headline PPI rising 0.1% in January, versus consensus expectations for a decline. That caused the year-on-year print to increase to -0.2% (from -1.0%). The PPI increase happened despite further declines in energy (-5.0%) which was offset by increases for food (+1.0%). Excluding food and energy, producer prices rose 0.5% as gains in core services more than made up for the flat print from core goods. That allowed the year-on-year core PPI to rise to 0.6%.

What we’ll be watching (p. 3) Calendar of upcoming releases (p. 5) Annex - Economic tables (A1)

WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH

2

Housing starts fell 3.8% in January to 1099K in seasonally adjusted annualized terms, disappointing consensus which was looking for an increase. Weakness was broad based as construction of multiple units fell 3.7%, while starts of single-family homes were down 3.9%. December starts were revised down to a 2.8% decline. Building permit applications were roughly flat (-0.2%) at 1202K in January as gains for multiple-units (+2.1%) offset declines for single-family homes (-1.6%). The latest report shows single-family permits running below starts, while the situation is the opposite for multi-family permits. The decline in single-family permits appears to be weighing on home builders sentiment. In February the NAHB Builder Sentiment index slipped from 61 to 58, its lowest level in 9 months. The prospective buyer traffic index recorded a 5 point drop in the month to 39. While the present sale index slipped 3 points to 65, future sales improved 1 point to 65. These indices still point towards further gains in housing starts, although builder sentiment has been softer recently. The housing statistics have to be looked at in context, since they come after housing starts recorded outsized gains over September-November. Industrial production rose a consensus-topping 0.9% in January. However, there was a sharp downward revision to the prior month to -0.7% (from -0.4%). The upside surprise in January came courtesy of utilities whose output surged 5.4%. Manufacturing output jumped 0.5% thanks largely to autos, erasing losses in the prior two months. Mining output was flat. The capacity utilization rate jumped to 77.1%. The industrial production was better than expected, even considering the sharp downward revision to the prior month. Utilities output bounced back as expected thanks to the return of more typical winter temperatures, while factories got a boost from auto production which remains well supported by domestic demand. Excluding autos, however, the manufacturing sector is far from booming, hampered by the strong dollar which is curtailing exports. Weak energy prices also continue to cap mining output. So, while the good start to the year bodes well for Q1 GDP growth (which is tracking around 2% annualized), that’s not to say the US economy has rid itself of all of its problems particularly in ex-auto manufacturing and mining. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey remained firmly in negative territory (-16.6) despite edging up 3 points in February. Business activity continued to decline for New York manufacturing firms, while new orders were still falling (-11.6). The employment index rose 12 points to -1.0. The index for the six-month outlook rose 5 points to 14.5. Still this is relatively weak, considering that in 2015 this index fluctuated between 22.4 and 47.2, averaging 30.4. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey remained slightly negative in February, edging up marginally to minus 2.8, compared to -3.5 a month ago. The index for current new orders fell 4 points to -5.3 while the employment index shrank 3 points to -5.0. The index for future

general activity has been trending down since last summer and was reported at 17.3 for the month, compared to 19.1 a month ago. The index of leading economic indicators fell 0.2% in January, following a revised decline of 0.3% in the previous month. This was the second decline recorded in four months. In January, falling stock prices were the main contributor to the index weakness. The coincident index increased 0.3% in January, recording its largest advance in 4 months. Household debt increased 0.4% to $12.1 trillion in the fourth quarter. This is 2.4% above last year’s fourth quarter. Delinquency rates continued to improve, as the share of household debt considered seriously delinquent fell to 3.7%. A year ago, they stood at 4.3%.

World – China’s trade surplus reached US$ 63.3 billion in

January. Exports declined 11.2% in the month, while imports fell 18.8%. However, commodity import volume remained relatively strong, suggesting the weakness in imports was largely the result of price effects. The consumer price index rose 1.8% in January from a year ago. Food price rose 4.1% while non-food inflation edged up from 1.1% in December to 1.2% y/y in January.


What we’ll be watching

3

There are no major data releases this week in Canada. However, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri is scheduled to give a speech on Wednesday, while Ontario’s budget will be unveiled on Thursday.

In the US, we’ll get the second estimate of Q4 GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. A downward revision to growth to around 0.4% annualized is likely based on a larger drag from inventories than what was

initially thought. Durable goods orders likely bounced back a bit in January due to the transportation component which may have got a boost from both autos and aircrafts. Ex-transportation orders may have been no better than flat. We’ll also get housing data for January with new home sales and existing home sales, both of which may show temporary declines after outsized gains the prior month. February data will also be available with Markit’s flash PMI for both manufacturing and services.

Previous NBF forecastsGDP (Q4 q/q chg. saar, second est.) 0.7% 0.4%

Durable goods orders (January m/m chg.) -5.0% 2.5%ex-transportation (January m/m chg.) -1.0% 0.0%

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan

15

Feb 15

Mar

15

Apr 1

5

May

15

Jun

15

Jul 1

5

Aug 1

5

Sep 1

5

Oct 1

5

Nov 1

5

Dec 1

5

Jan

16

U.S.: Likely rebound in durable orders due to transportationDurable goods orders

m/m % chg.

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Datastream)

NBF forecasts

Excludingtransportation

Total


What we’ll be watching

4

Elsewhere around the globe, Japan’s consumer price index for January will be watched for clues about whether or not the threat of deflation is intensifying. Markit will release flash factory PMI’s for February for Japan and the Eurozone.


Consensus Cons.

Estimate EPS

8:30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Jan -22.00% -- Valeant Pharmaceuticals International In 0:00 Q4 2015 2.60

9:45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Feb P 52.4 52.5 Allergan plc Bef-mkt Q4 2015 3.35

Motorola Solutions Inc Aft-mkt Q4 2015 1.46

Tenet Healthcare Corp Aft-mkt Q4 2015 0.34

ONEOK Inc Aft-mkt Q4 2015 0.51

9:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY Dec 5.83% 5.70% Bank of Montreal 6:45 Q1 2016 1.73

10:00 US Consumer Confidence Index Feb 98.1 97.5 National Bank of Canada 7:15 Q1 2016 1.15

10:00 US Existing Home Sales Jan 5.46m 5.35m 5.35m DH Corp Aft-mkt Q4 2015 0.59

10:00 US Existing Home Sales MoM Jan 14.70% -2.00% -1.10% PrairieSky Royalty Ltd 0:00 Q4 2015 0.05

Ecolab Inc Bef-mkt Q4 2015 1.24

JM Smucker Co/The Bef-mkt Q3 2016 1.62

Home Depot Inc/The 6:00 Q4 2016 1.10

Macy's Inc 8:00 Q4 2016 1.89

Edison International Aft-mkt Q4 2015 0.60

Extra Space Storage Inc Aft-mkt Q4 2015 0.87

Verisk Analytics Inc Aft-mkt Q4 2015 0.74

Expeditors International of Washington I 0:00 Q4 2015 0.60

7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Feb-19 8.20% -- Gildan Activewear Inc Bef-mkt Q4 2015 0.28

9:45 US Markit US Services PMI Feb P 53.2 53.5 Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd Bef-mkt Q4 2015 0.31

10:00 US New Home Sales Jan 544k 520k 525k Royal Bank of Canada 6:00 Q1 2016 1.67

10:00 US New Home Sales MoM Jan 10.80% -4.40% -3.50% MacDonald Dettwiler & Associates Ltd 17:00 Q4 2015 1.47

Pengrowth Energy Corp Aft-mkt Q4 2015 -0.01

Northland Power Inc Aft-mkt Q4 2015 0.09

Centerra Gold Inc Aft-mkt Q4 2015 0.04

Encana Corp 0:00 Q4 2015 0.02

HudBay Minerals Inc 0:00 Q4 2015 0.07

Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust 0:00 Q4 2015 0.28

Innergex Renewable Energy Inc 0:00 Q4 2015 -0.03

Lowe's Cos Inc Bef-mkt Q4 2016 0.59

8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Feb-20 262k 270k Laurentian Bank of Canada Bef-mkt Q1 2016 1.44

8:30 US Durable Goods Orders Jan P -5.00% 2.60% 2.50% Mitel Networks Corp Bef-mkt Q4 2015 0.27

8:30 US Durables Ex Transportation Jan P -1.00% 0.10% 0.00% Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce/Ca 6:00 Q1 2016 2.37

Loblaw Cos Ltd 6:30 Q4 2015 0.91

Toronto-Dominion Bank/The 6:30 Q1 2016 1.20

Goldcorp Inc Aft-mkt Q4 2015 0.01

Pembina Pipeline Corp Aft-mkt Q4 2015 0.32

Atco Ltd/Canada 0:00 Q4 2015 0.78

Canadian Utilities Ltd 0:00 Q4 2015 0.58

AltaGas Ltd 0:00 Q4 2015 0.43

Chartwell Retirement Residences 0:00 Q4 2015 0.00

Element Financial Corp 0:00 Q4 2015 0.33

8:30 US GDP Annualized QoQ 4Q S 0.70% 0.50% 0.40% Husky Energy Inc Bef-mkt Q4 2015 -0.10

8:30 US Personal Consumption 4Q S 2.20% 2.20% Magna International Inc 0:00 Q4 2015 1.11

10:00 US Personal Income Jan 0.30% 0.40% 0.50% Onex Corp 0:00 Q4 2015 0.00

10:00 US Personal Spending Jan 0.00% 0.30% 0.20% Penn West Petroleum Ltd 0:00 Q4 2015 -0.21

10:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Feb F 90.7 91.0 Bonavista Energy Corp 0:00 Q4 2015 -0.07

10:00 US PCE Deflator YoY Jan 0.60% 1.00% 1.00% CenterPoint Energy Inc Bef-mkt Q4 2015 0.23

10:00 US PCE Core YoY Jan 1.40% 1.50% 1.50% American Tower Corp 7:00 Q4 2015 1.18

Sempra Energy 9:00 Q4 2015 1.32

Leucadia National Corp 0:00 Q4 2015 0.02

Source: Bloomberg

5

Feb 26

Wednesday

Feb 24

Thursday

Feb 25

Friday

Economic releases & eventsPeriod PreviousTime

Feb 22

Monday

Tuesday

Feb 23

Earnings announcements

Economic calendar - Canada & U.S.

Country Release NBF Estimate

Company Time Qtr


Annex - Economic tables

February 19, 2016Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth

Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (3)

Otherwise Indicated Period Level Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

UNITED STATESMONETARY AGGREGATES ($Billions)

M1 * Jan 2016 3091 0.3 -0.2 1.6 5.5 4.3 5.2 5.2 9.3

M2 * Jan 2016 12422 1.0 0.3 0.7 6.1 5.6 6.1 6.1 6.1CREDIT MEASURES

Consumer Credit Dec 2015 3547 0.6 0.4 0.4 6.5 7.4 6.9 6.8 6.7Mortgage (Banks) * Jan 2016 3888 0.5 0.7 0.8 8.0 6.0 6.6 6.6 3.2Business * Jan 2016 1984 0.6 0.9 1.1 11.7 9.7 10.7 10.7 13.0

CANADAMONETARY AGGREGATES

M2+ gross Nov 2015 1754 0.6 0.2 0.6 7.1 5.6 5.4 4.8 4.7Personal Deposits (Banks) (2) Dec 2015 854 0.7 0.7 0.3 7.1 5.1 5.2 4.0 4.1

CREDIT MEASURESConsumer Nov 2015 547 0.4 0.1 0.2 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 2.3Mortgages Nov 2015 1347 0.5 0.5 0.5 6.3 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.0Short - Term Business Loans Oct 2015 499 0.6 1.4 -0.1 9.4 10.3 11.5 11.2 8.7Business (S.T. + L.T.) * Dec 2015 1743 0.6 0.0 0.3 4.1 6.7 7.1 8.0 7.5Private (Consumer+Business) * Nov 2015 3628 0.2 0.3 0.5 5.3 6.2 6.0 6.4 5.7Gov. of Canada securities outstanding Jan 2016 673 1.5 -1.0 0.7 3.9 5.2 3.4 3.4 -1.0

INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATESReference Last 1 week 2 w. Average of last Thursdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.Thursday day ago ago 13 w. 26 w. 52 w. ago ago ago

UNITED STATESINTEREST RATES

Federal Funds Target Rate * 18 Feb 16 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.44 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.25 0.25Prime Rate * 18 Feb 16 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.44 3.35 3.30 3.25 3.25 3.253-month Treasury Bills * 18 Feb 16 0.30 0.28 0.29 0.24 0.14 0.08 0.11 0.02 0.022-year Bonds * 18 Feb 16 0.73 0.64 0.72 0.89 0.80 0.71 0.88 0.66 0.615-year Bonds * 18 Feb 16 1.22 1.11 1.25 1.48 1.49 1.51 1.67 1.47 1.5810-year Bonds * 18 Feb 16 1.76 1.64 1.86 2.08 2.12 2.14 2.26 2.07 2.1330-year Bonds * 18 Feb 16 2.63 2.51 2.70 2.86 2.91 2.88 3.02 2.74 2.74Corporate High-yield (Lehman) * 18 Feb 16 9.54 10.10 9.39 8.99 8.27 7.29 7.95 7.23 6.11Corporate Invest. Grade (Lehman) * 18 Feb 16 3.65 3.57 3.55 3.48 3.37 3.18 3.30 3.21 2.86

Corp. High-yield - Treas. 10y. * 18 Feb 16 7.78 8.46 7.53 6.91 6.15 5.15 5.69 5.16 3.98Corp. Invest. grade - Treas. 10y. * 18 Feb 16 1.89 1.93 1.69 1.40 1.25 1.03 1.04 1.14 0.73Treasuries 30y. - 3-m. T.B. * 18 Feb 16 2.33 2.23 2.41 2.62 2.77 2.80 2.91 2.72 2.72

EXCHANGE RATEFED Broad (Jan 97 = 100) * 12 Feb 16 124.11 124.01 124.10 123.05 121.43 118.50 120.13 118.95 113.60

CANADAINTEREST RATES

Prime Rate * 18 Feb 16 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.76 2.70 2.70 2.85Target overnight rate * 18 Feb 16 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.60 0.50 0.50 0.7530-day commercial paper * 18 Feb 16 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.83 0.87 0.83 0.74 0.903-month Treasury Bills * 18 Feb 16 0.46 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.43 0.49 0.45 0.38 0.501-year Treasury Bills * 18 Feb 16 0.47 0.39 0.43 0.47 0.48 0.53 0.53 0.41 0.455-year Bonds * 18 Feb 16 0.59 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.77 0.81 0.96 0.65 0.7710-year Bonds * 18 Feb 16 1.11 1.02 1.15 1.32 1.42 1.49 1.65 1.31 1.4730-year Bonds * 18 Feb 16 1.91 1.84 1.96 2.09 2.18 2.18 2.35 2.05 2.11SPREADSPrime - 30d. Commercial paper * 18 Feb 16 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.84 1.87 1.89 1.87 1.96 1.95Long Term - Short Term * 18 Feb 16 1.45 1.40 1.51 1.63 1.75 1.69 1.90 1.67 1.61

CANADA UNITED STATES SPREADS3-month T-Bills * 18 Feb 16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.21 0.29 0.41 0.34 0.36 0.48Long Term Bonds * 18 Feb 16 -0.72 -0.67 -0.74 -0.77 -0.73 -0.70 -0.67 -0.69 -0.63

EXCHANGE RATEUS$ /CDN$ (GTIS) * 18 Feb 16 0.7286 0.7176 0.7271 0.7223 0.7407 0.7694 0.7529 0.7639 0.8002Trade-weighted (1990=100) G-10 * 18 Feb 16 85.6 83.6 85.7 84.9 87.0 90.3 88.8 89.6 93.5

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%)Reference Past Prev. Month Year-to-dateThursday Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.

Dow Jones (U.S.) * 18 Feb 16 16413.4 2.7 -6.7 -3.4 -7.5 -6.3 -9.0 -4.2 1.4S&P 500 (U.S.) * 18 Feb 16 1917.8 2.0 -6.2 -3.7 -8.0 -8.5 -8.7 -4.4 1.9NASDAQ (U.S.) * 18 Feb 16 4487.5 0.0 -8.8 -3.0 -11.6 -11.3 -8.5 -8.8 3.3S&P/TSX (Can.) * 18 Feb 16 12931.4 8.3 -8.3 -2.8 -3.5 -8.9 -15.0 -0.7 6.0

* Update (1) Commercial Banks (2) Not seasonnally adjusted (3) compared to same period of the preceeding year,Source: Datastream unless otherwise stated

TABLE 1 - NORTH AMERICAN FINANCIAL INDICATORS

A1


Annualized Growth (%)

Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (9)

Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

Index of 12 Leading Indicators * Jan 2016 -0.2 -0.3 0.5 2.0 2.3 4.0 2.2 2.2 6.2Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) Jan 2016 98.1 96.3 92.6 95.7 98.3 97.5 103.8 98.1 103.8I.S.M. Manufacturing Index (level) Jan 2016 48.2 48.0 48.4 48.2 49.2 50.9 53.9 48.2 53.9

Jan 2016 53.9 59.5 59.4 57.6 59.5 60.2 61.3 53.9 61.3

DOMESTIC DEMANDSales new autos & light trucks (000,000) Jan 2016 17.6 17.3 18.2 17.7 17.9 17.5 16.7 17.6 16.7Retail Sales Jan 2016 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.9 3.4 2.1 3.4 3.4 3.9

- Motor vehicle Jan 2016 0.6 0.5 0.6 5.9 7.8 6.7 6.9 6.9 12.4- Other Jan 2016 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 1.0 2.5 2.5 1.8

Consumer Spending: Total ($ current) Dec 2015 0.0 0.5 0.0 -7.8 1.5 2.7 -4.7 2.7 4.2Total ($ constant) Dec 2015 0.1 0.4 0.0 2.2 2.9 3.1 2.6 3.1 2.7

Personal Income Dec 2015 0.3 0.3 0.4 3.6 4.8 4.5 4.2 4.5 4.4Personal Savings Rate (3) Dec 2015 5.5 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.2 4.8New Orders Dec 2015 -2.9 -0.7 1.3 -5.4 -1.8 -6.4 -3.9 -6.4 3.4

- Non-Defence Capital Goods exc. Aircraft Dec 2015 -4.3 -0.9 0.6 -6.5 0.6 -3.8 -7.4 -3.8 6.3Unfilled Orders Dec 2015 -0.5 0.1 0.3 -0.8 -1.5 2.8 -1.9 2.8 10.6Business Inventories * Dec 2015 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 2.3 2.4 1.7 2.4 4.9Inventories / Shipments Businesses * Dec 2015 1.39 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.37 1.33 1.37 1.31Manufacturers' Shipments Dec 2015 -1.4 -0.1 -0.7 -6.7 -2.4 -4.2 -4.7 -4.2 2.5Manufacturers' Inventories Dec 2015 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -3.1 -1.5 -0.6 -1.6 -0.6 3.0Inventories / Shipments Manuf. Dec 2015 1.38 1.35 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.35 1.33 1.35 1.31Housing Starts (000) (1) * Jan 2016 1099 1143 1176 1139 1135 1108 1080 1099 1080New Home Sales, single-family Dec 2015 10.8 1.9 5.5 15.3 -3.9 14.1 9.9 14.1 2.3Existing Home Sales, s.f. & condos Dec 2015 14.7 -10.5 -4.1 -20.0 7.7 6.3 7.7 6.3 -3.0

PRODUCTIONIndustrial Production * Jan 2016 0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -3.8 -0.3 0.9 -0.7 -0.7 4.5

- Consumer Goods * Jan 2016 1.6 -0.7 -0.7 -3.1 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.4 3.0- Hitech goods * Jan 2016 0.6 0.9 -1.6 2.8 2.5 0.3 1.6 1.6 2.5

EXTERNAL AND FISCAL BALANCESExports Dec 2015 -0.3 -0.9 -1.6 -8.2 -3.1 -4.8 -6.9 -4.8 2.8Imports Dec 2015 0.3 -1.8 -0.4 -8.6 -3.0 -3.1 -6.5 -3.1 3.4Merch. Trade Balance ($ billions) Dec 2015 -43.4 -42.2 -44.6 -43.4 -44.0 -44.3 -45.5 -44.3 -42.4Real merchandise trade balance Dec 2015 -60.3 -59.2 -61.1 -60.2 -59.5 -58.7 -53.1 -58.7 -50.1Federal budget balance last 12 months (2) Jan 2016 -405.1 -477.8 -461.5 -494.7 55.2 -17.5

INFLATION AND COSTSConsumer Prices * Jan 2016 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.2 1.4 1.3 -0.2

- Excluding Food and Energy * Jan 2016 0.3 0.2 0.2 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.6PCE Deflator exc. Food and Energy * Jan 2016 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.5Industrial Prices, Finished Goods Dec 2015 -0.8 0.1 -0.3 -5.7 -0.4 -3.3 -2.8 -3.3 1.9Average Hourly Earnings (4) Jan 2016 0.3 0.2 0.1 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.0Industrial Capacity Utilization Rate * Jan 2016 77.1 76.4 77.0 76.8 77.3 77.6 78.7 77.1 78.7Median Price, Single-Family Homes (5) Dec 2015 2.1 0.4 -1.2 -10.5 8.2 6.9 8.0 6.9 5.7

LABOUR MARKETNew Jobs (000) (6) Jan 2016 151 262 280 231 215 222 2665 151 221

- Manufacturing (000) Jan 2016 29 13 3 15 3 4 45 29 17- Services (000) Jan 2016 111 208 227 182 191 207 2489 111 161

Average weekly hours (6) Jan 2016 0.1 0.5 0.2 3.1 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.1 3.3Civilian Unemployment Rate (7) Jan 2016 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.7 4.9 5.7

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth RatesQUARTERLY INDICATORS Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q4 2014 2014 2013 2012Real GDP Chained 2009 dollars 0.7 2.0 3.9 0.6 2.1 4.3 2.4 2.2 2.3Consumption 2.2 3.0 3.6 1.7 4.3 3.5 3.1 2.7 1.7Residential Construction 8.2 8.2 9.4 10.1 9.9 3.4 8.8 1.8 9.5Business Investment -1.8 2.6 4.1 1.6 0.7 9.0 2.9 6.2 3.0

- Machinery and Equipment 4.1 11.8 -2.6 4.8 0.0 #VALUE! 6.9 0.0 #VALUE!Government Spending 0.7 1.8 2.6 -0.1 -1.4 1.8 0.8 -0.6 -2.9Exports -2.5 0.7 5.1 -6.0 5.4 1.8 1.1 3.4 2.8Imports 1.1 2.3 3.0 7.1 10.3 -0.8 5.0 3.8 1.0Change in Inventories (1) (2) 68.6 85.5 113.5 112.8 78.2 79.9 95.1 68.0 61.4GDP Deflator 0.8 1.3 2.1 0.1 0.1 1.6 1.0 1.6 1.6Personal Disposable Income 3.2 3.8 2.6 3.9 4.7 2.7 3.5 2.7 -1.4

Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 2014 2013 2012Labour Productivity (4) -3.0 2.1 3.5 -1.1 -2.2 3.1 0.6 0.7 0.0Unit Labor Costs (4) 4.5 1.9 2.0 2.6 5.7 0.1 2.4 2.0 1.2

Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 2013 2012 2011Current Account (current $) -496.5 -444.4 -473.2 -412.6 -391.6 -368.2 -389.5 -376.8 -449.7

as a % of GDP -2.7 -2.5 -2.7 -2.3 -2.2 -2.1 -2.2 -2.3 -2.8Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 2013 2012 2011

Corporate Profits (8) -6.2 14.8 -21.1 -4.6 18.7 33.9 1.7 2.0 10.0as a % of GDP 11.4 11.6 11.4 12.1 12.3 12.0 11.9 12.4 12.8

* Update Source: Datastream(1) Annual Rate (5) Existing Homes Sold (9) Compated to same period of the(2) $ Billions (6) Non-Farm Payroll Survey preceeding year, unless otherwise(3) Personal Savings as a % of Personal Disposable Income (7) Household Survey stated(4) Nonfarm Business (8) Current $ and before taxes

- Non-manufacturing (level)

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 2 - UNITED STATES ECONOMIC INDICATORS

February 19, 2016Monthly Growth (%)

A2


TABLE 3 - CANADIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORSFebruary 19, 2016

Annualized Growth (%) Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (6)Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

CFIB Business Barometer ® Jan 2016 -2.5 -5.2 -0.4 -6.7 -10.4 -10.1 -14.5 -14.5 -0.6

DOMESTIC DEMANDRetail Sales ($ current) * Dec 2015 -2.2 1.7 0.1 1.5 5.0 2.2 2.6 2.2 4.6

- Motor vehicle and parts dealers * Dec 2015 -3.9 3.7 0.4 8.3 14.7 7.1 8.4 7.1 7.1- Other * Dec 2015 -1.6 1.0 0.0 -0.7 1.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 38.5

Retail Sales ($ constant) * Dec 2015 -2.3 1.4 -0.4 0.8 2.2 1.7 0.5 1.7 3.5

Manufacturer's Shipments ($ current) * Dec 2015 1.2 1.2 -1.2 -4.4 3.6 -1.5 -1.6 -1.5 5.3New Orders * Dec 2015 -2.1 3.4 -1.7 -17.0 0.7 -4.3 -6.5 -4.3 6.8

- Durables * Dec 2015 -4.0 6.8 -2.0 -21.5 1.5 -2.7 -9.3 -2.7 9.1Unfilled Orders * Dec 2015 -2.2 -0.4 -1.5 -12.8 -5.9 8.1 -0.6 8.1 24.1Manufacturer's Inventories * Dec 2015 -1.6 0.1 0.2 -1.6 3.1 2.0 2.8 2.0 4.1Inventories / Shipments Ratio * Dec 2015 1.40 1.44 1.45 1.43 1.42 1.43 1.34 1.43 1.38Manufacturer's Shipments ($ constant) * Dec 2015 1.3 1.1 -1.1 -3.6 1.2 -0.9 -3.0 -0.9 3.0

Housing Starts (000) (1) Jan 2016 165.9 172.5 211.6 183.3 199.2 192.2 182.9 165.9 182.9Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Jan 2016 0.5 -0.3 1.8 10.7 6.4 6.2 12.6 12.6 3.3Number of commercial bankrupties (2) Aug 1900 17.9 -11.8 36.0 58.1 -6.3 -3.1 7.6 -2.0 -1.1PRODUCTION Real Domestic Product Nov 2015 0.3 0.0 -0.5 -0.6 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.7 2.4

- Manufacturing Nov 2015 0.4 -0.5 -0.9 -2.9 -1.5 0.3 -1.1 -0.1 2.6- Construction Nov 2015 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.6 -3.0 -1.7 -3.6 -2.1 1.2

Services Nov 2015 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.8 2.4

EXTERNAL, FISCAL AND EXCHANGE BALANCESExports Dec 2015 3.9 0.9 -1.6 -5.9 7.1 -0.9 3.4 -0.9 10.1Imports Dec 2015 1.6 -0.7 -1.0 -7.2 3.5 4.4 2.5 4.4 7.6

- Capital Goods Dec 2015 -0.6 0.0 -0.6 2.8 5.3 8.4 8.7 8.4 17.0Merch. Trade Balance ($ millions) Dec 2015 -585 -1,587 -2,333 -1,502 -1,592 -1,943 -967 -1,943 473Change in Official Reserves Oct 2015 -101 541 105 182 509 215 3,391 2,579 3,492

Level (US$): $71.9 billion Fiscal year Fed. budget balance last 12 months ($ billions) Nov 2015 7.3 7.5 5.3 -0.1 1.0 -3.3

INFLATION AND COSTSConsumer Prices * Jan 2016 0.2 -0.5 -0.1 -1.3 0.7 1.2 2.0 2.0 1.0

- Excluding Food and Energy * Jan 2016 0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.9 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9- Core inflation (4) * Jan 2016 0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 1.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.2

Average Hourly Earnings (2) Jan 2016 0.4 0.1 0.6 4.3 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.0Price of New Housing icluding land Dec 2015 0.1 0.2 0.3 2.3 2.0 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.6Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Jan 2016 3.2 1.3 1.6 23.2 11.4 9.5 17.0 17.0 3.1Industrial Prices (1992=100) Dec 2015 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -4.5 1.2 -0.8 1.1 -0.8 2.5

LABOUR MARKETLabour Force Jan 2016 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.7 1.3 0.9 1.3 1.3 0.3Job creation (000) Jan 2016 -5.7 22.8 -32.9 -5.3 8.9 10.5 125.5 -5.7 24.2

- Manufacturing Jan 2016 -11.0 7.1 12.6 2.9 2.8 1.4 17.1 -11.0 9.3- Services Jan 2016 19.7 23.2 -71.2 -9.4 7.9 14.1 169.2 19.7 22.9- Full Time Jan 2016 5.6 -9.6 37.4 11.1 6.1 14.3 171.4 5.6 -18.4- Part Time Jan 2016 -11.3 32.4 -70.3 -16.4 2.8 -3.8 -45.9 -11.3 42.6

Unemployment Rate Jan 2016 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.1 6.9 6.6 7.2 6.6

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth RatesQUARTERLY INDICATORS Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 2014 2013 2012GDP Chained (2007) $ 2.3 -0.3 -0.7 3.4 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 1.7Household consumption 1.8 2.3 0.4 2.4 2.9 4.2 2.6 2.4 1.9Business Investments, non-res., mach. & equip. -5.8 -11.2 -18.5 0.9 4.7 2.1 0.0 2.5 8.6

-Machinery and Equipment -4.5 -14.5 -5.9 7.2 14.4 8.3 1.0 -6.7 2.7Residential Construction 2.5 0.1 6.3 -0.5 10.3 9.8 2.5 -0.4 5.6Government Expenditures -1.6 1.7 3.8 -0.3 -0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.7Government Fixed Capital Formation -2.2 0.2 4.3 6.1 6.8 7.8 4.0 -6.4 -4.0Final Domestic Demand 0.0 0.2 -1.3 1.7 2.9 3.6 1.6 1.3 2.4Exports 9.4 1.9 -1.0 -0.2 6.9 20.7 5.3 2.8 2.6Imports -2.9 -1.9 0.4 0.3 4.7 10.3 1.8 1.8 1.5Change in Inventories, chained (2007) $ (5) 0.7 5.4 12.8 9.2 1.3 9.4 9.9 15.5 6.2Real Disposible Income 0.8 3.2 1.2 2.5 2.7 8.0 1.2 3.4 2.7Personal savings Rate 4.2 4.9 4.9 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.2 5.4 5.0GDP Price Deflator 0.4 1.8 -2.8 -2.4 2.5 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.3Corporate Profits (nominal) -6.7 -3.1 -47.5 -10.1 10.9 7.3 7.0 0.8 -5.3

as a % of GDP 11.3 11.6 11.7 13.6 14.0 13.8 13.8 13.5 13.9Indust. Capacity Utilization Rate 82.0 81.4 82.5 83.3 83.0 82.8 82.7 81.2 81.5Labour Productivity, Business Sector 0.6 -3.4 -1.9 1.9 0.8 7.5 2.5 1.3 -0.4Unit Labour Cost, Business Sector -2.0 1.4 5.1 -1.8 2.4 0.4 1.1 1.7 3.2

Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 2014 2013 2012Current Account (current $) (5) -64.8 -66.3 -76.4 -58.3 -39.6 -37.7 0.0 -44.9 -59.7

as a % of GDP -3.2 -3.3 -3.9 -2.9 -2.0 -1.9 0.0 -2.3 -3.2

Sources: Datasteam and Canadian Real Estate Association

* Update

(1) Annual Rate (4) C.P.I. excluding the 8 most volatile components and the effect of indirect taxes

(2) Not Seasonally Adjusted (5) Annual rate, $ billions

(3) Current and before taxes (6) Compared to same period of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated


Monthly Growth (%)

A3



QUEBECDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales * Dec 2015 -2.1 0.9 0.3 1.1 4.0 1.0 1.4 1.0 1.7Manufacturing Shipments * Dec 2015 1.7 1.8 -2.5 -5.0 1.2 -0.6 0.2 -0.6 6.4Housing Starts (000) (2) Jan 2016 33.6 42.1 33.5 36.4 39.8 37.2 28.7 33.6 28.7Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Jan 2016 -0.6 3.1 1.0 13.5 6.2 5.9 10.5 10.5 0.0Wages and Salaries Sept 2015 1.1 -0.2 0.2 1.5 3.0 2.2 3.0 2.3 2.1Value of merchandise exports (1) Dec 2015 21.3 -3.8 -5.6 20.8 9.0 7.3 7.3 7.3 14.6CFIB Business Barometer ® Jan 2016 2.6 5.5 -1.0 8.4 1.6 -2.0 8.8 8.8 -0.6Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Oct 2015 5.5 -1.0 8.4 1.6 -2.0 8.8 #VALUE! -0.6 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) * Jan 2016 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -1.7 0.1 1.1 1.6 1.6 0.7Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jan 2016 0.6 -0.3 0.9 4.3 4.2 2.2 2.7 2.7 1.7Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) Dec 2015 -0.1 0.3 0.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.3Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Jan 2016 0.4 -1.5 3.4 2.5 2.8 1.6 2.2 2.2 0.3

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) Jan 2016 -3.2 11.5 -2.3 2.0 1.6 2.5 30.5 -3.2 14.9Unemployment rate Jan 2016 7.6 7.9 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.6 7.4Participation rate Jan 2016 64.7 65.0 64.6 64.8 64.8 64.8 64.5 64.7 64.5

ONTARIODOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales * Dec 2015 -2.3 2.2 0.6 4.3 7.7 4.6 5.1 4.6 5.0Manufacturing Shipments * Dec 2015 0.7 1.8 0.4 1.9 11.2 1.8 2.0 1.8 6.2Housing Starts (000) (2) Jan 2016 60.1 54.1 87.8 67.3 77.4 68.8 60.1 60.1 60.1Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Jan 2016 0.9 -0.9 1.0 4.4 4.3 9.5 10.1 10.1 11.1Wages and Salaries Sept 2015 1.0 -1.1 1.1 3.0 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.6 3.2Value of merchandise exports (1) Dec 2015 4.0 -2.6 1.9 26.5 22.4 10.5 17.1 10.5 8.0CFIB Business Barometer ® Jan 2016 -2.4 -4.9 0.7 -5.1 -5.5 -5.0 -13.9 -13.9 3.7Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Oct 2015 #REF! #REF! #REF! -5.5 -5.0 -13.9 #VALUE! 3.7 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) * Jan 2016 0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.5 0.6 1.2 2.0 2.0 1.6Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jan 2016 0.3 0.1 0.4 4.3 3.8 3.2 3.6 3.6 1.8Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) Dec 2015 0.1 0.2 0.3 3.2 3.9 2.5 3.1 2.5 1.7Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Jan 2016 2.1 -0.4 1.4 9.9 7.3 8.1 11.1 11.1 3.9

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) Jan 2016 19.8 33.0 -8.5 14.8 7.2 8.3 100.2 19.8 4.1

Unemployment rate Jan 2016 6.7 6.7 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.8Participation rate Jan 2016 65.4 65.2 65.1 65.3 65.2 65.2 65.2 65.4 65.2

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADORDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales * Dec 2015 -4.4 1.4 1.1 0.3 5.3 0.4 -0.1 0.4 3.4Manufacturing Shipments * Dec 2015 2.5 -5.4 -7.9 -36.4 -3.9 -5.3 -8.7 -5.3 -0.8Housing Starts (000) (2) Jan 2016 1.9 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 5.0 1.9 5.0Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Jan 2016 -9.3 0.9 -5.9 -19.4 0.1 2.0 -9.8 -9.8 11.3Wages and Salaries Sept 2015 0.1 -1.8 0.4 -1.6 3.4 3.4 1.8 3.7 5.2Value of merchandise exports (1) Dec 2015 46.6 -21.1 -18.5 -59.2 -19.7 -30.2 -6.6 -30.2 9.2CFIB Business Barometer ® Jan 2016 -2.5 8.4 -8.0 9.7 10.9 -11.2 4.8 4.8 -12.0Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Oct 2015 8.4 -8.0 9.7 10.9 -11.2 4.8 0.0 -12.0 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) * Jan 2016 0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -2.2 0.6 0.7 2.4 2.4 -0.4Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jan 2016 -1.5 -0.1 0.3 4.4 1.4 -1.3 -1.9 -1.9 -2.2Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) Dec 2015 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.9Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Jan 2016 -3.0 -3.4 2.2 -17.2 -3.7 -3.8 -9.8 -9.8 1.4

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Jan 2016 -2.4 -2.4 0.0 -1.6 -1.0 -0.6 -7.4 -2.4 0.2Unemployment Jan 2016 14.4 14.4 13.1 14.0 13.4 13.1 11.5 14.4 11.5Participation rate Jan 2016 60.7 61.4 61.1 61.1 61.2 61.1 60.6 60.7 60.6

PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales * Dec 2015 0.1 1.4 -0.9 2.5 8.9 2.4 7.2 2.4 3.3Manufacturing Shipments * Dec 2015 -5.6 -0.5 8.8 17.8 12.8 2.0 -4.7 2.0 11.5Housing Starts (000) (2) Jan 2016 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 1.0 0.6 1.0Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Jan 2016 -10.9 -3.9 -6.1 -15.8 26.6 18.7 -1.5 -1.5 20.9Wages and Salaries Sept 2015 2.0 -1.0 0.7 1.9 5.1 2.4 4.7 2.5 2.1Value of merchandise exports (1) Dec 2015 11.9 -5.6 -13.4 -26.2 35.8 16.0 16.8 16.0 19.3CFIB Business Barometer ® Jan 2016 -1.3 -3.2 6.4 -4.5 -20.4 10.0 -13.6 -13.6 20.5Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Oct 2015 3.2 6.4 4.5 20.4 10.0 13.6 #VALUE! 20.5 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) * Jan 2016 -0.1 -0.3 0.2 -1.0 -0.1 -0.3 1.9 1.9 -1.9Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jan 2016 0.4 0.9 1.4 16.6 -1.9 2.2 0.4 0.4 2.6Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) Dec 2015 0.0 0.2 0.0 -2.5 -0.9 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -1.1Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Jan 2016 -4.0 2.9 2.8 38.1 -5.6 -0.2 4.1 4.1 -0.3

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Jan 2016 -0.4 -0.5 -1.0 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 -1.6 -0.4 0.7Unemployment Jan 2016 9.5 9.8 10.3 9.9 9.9 10.4 10.3 9.5 10.3Participation rate Jan 2016 66.1 66.5 67.5 66.7 66.9 67.4 68.3 66.1 68.3

Sources: Datastream and Canadian Real estate Association* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate (3) Compared to sdame priod of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS

February 19, 2016Monthly Growth (%)

A4


February 19, 2016 Annualized Growth (%)

Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (3)Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

NOVA SCOTIADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales * Dec 2015 -1.0 1.7 -1.1 -1.0 8.8 0.1 3.8 0.1 2.3Manufacturing Shipments * Dec 2015 8.3 -2.9 -0.8 4.0 17.2 6.5 12.8 6.5 -22.6Housing Starts (000) (2) Jan 2016 2.1 1.9 2.9 2.3 3.0 3.8 2.9 2.1 2.9Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Jan 2016 5.6 -13.4 4.4 6.9 -1.6 1.3 -2.9 -2.9 16.6Wages and Salaries Sept 2015 0.3 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.1 1.9 3.4 2.0 2.8Value of merchandise exports (1) Dec 2015 10.0 11.3 -15.4 -24.8 11.2 1.1 18.3 1.1 22.3CFIB Business Barometer ® Jan 2016 -2.9 5.1 -0.7 22.0 8.5 10.4 6.3 6.3 10.5Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Oct 2015 5.1 -0.7 22.0 8.5 10.4 6.3 #VALUE! 10.5 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) * Jan 2016 0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -1.8 -0.2 0.6 2.0 2.0 -0.4Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jan 2016 2.5 0.3 -0.4 4.8 -1.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 3.1Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) Dec 2015 0.2 -0.4 0.1 -0.6 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.3Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Jan 2016 -2.3 -1.9 0.0 -10.7 0.4 2.1 1.1 1.1 1.6

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Jan 2016 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 -2.4 -0.9 -0.6 -7.0 -2.4 -0.6Unemployment Jan 2016 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.4 8.5 8.4Participation rate Jan 2016 61.6 62.0 62.4 62.0 62.2 62.3 62.7 61.6 62.7

NEW BRUNSWICKDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales * Dec 2015 -3.3 1.8 1.3 4.8 9.4 3.3 5.0 3.3 3.8Manufacturing Shipments * Dec 2015 16.8 -4.6 -14.4 -46.7 -22.2 -9.7 -12.3 -9.7 -6.5Housing Starts (000) (2) Jan 2016 1.7 1.7 2.7 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.9Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Jan 2016 4.7 6.9 1.1 33.5 24.0 5.4 7.9 7.9 22.5Wages and Salaries Sept 2015 1.0 -0.1 1.0 3.4 3.2 2.4 3.0 2.5 1.5Value of merchandise exports (1) Dec 2015 43.5 -4.7 -22.7 -61.6 -41.7 -6.4 -6.9 -6.4 -10.0CFIB Business Barometer ® Jan 2016 1.6 2.3 2.4 8.0 -1.2 0.5 -2.1 -2.1 13.9Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Oct 2015 2.3 2.4 8.0 -1.2 0.5 -2.1 #VALUE! 13.9 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) * Jan 2016 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.5 0.7 2.4 2.4 -0.2Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jan 2016 0.0 0.8 0.6 6.3 -1.5 2.5 -0.5 -0.5 4.1Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) Dec 2015 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.8 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 -0.1Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Jan 2016 -1.3 0.9 -4.5 -7.1 -0.8 0.1 3.6 3.6 -9.1

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Jan 2016 -1.1 0.4 -3.5 -1.4 0.6 -0.2 -2.4 -1.1 2.7Unemployment Jan 2016 9.3 8.9 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.7 10.1 9.3 10.1Participation rate Jan 2016 62.3 62.3 62.0 62.2 62.3 62.6 63.3 62.3 63.3

MANITOBADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales * Dec 2015 -1.9 1.4 -0.4 0.8 6.9 1.3 2.7 1.3 4.3Manufacturing Shipments * Dec 2015 -0.6 4.8 -0.6 11.7 4.2 -1.2 -0.8 -1.2 2.8Housing Starts (000) (2) Jan 2016 5.1 4.9 3.9 4.6 5.5 5.4 7.5 5.1 7.5Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Jan 2016 4.0 -3.3 5.5 6.5 4.2 1.5 3.4 3.4 6.6Wages and Salaries Sept 2015 0.7 -0.3 0.0 1.7 3.2 2.5 2.1 2.6 3.3Value of merchandise exports (1) Dec 2015 1.2 -1.7 -11.5 8.1 2.2 3.6 14.5 3.6 6.9CFIB Business Barometer ® Jan 2016 -7.5 -2.5 12.3 82.7 5.8 -4.3 7.5 7.5 -8.4Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Oct 2015 -2.5 12.3 82.7 5.8 -4.3 7.5 #VALUE! -8.4 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) * Jan 2016 0.4 -1.0 -0.2 -2.3 1.2 1.3 2.1 2.1 0.7Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jan 2016 0.8 -0.3 -0.3 3.0 6.5 3.6 4.2 4.2 3.2Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) Dec 2015 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.3 1.8 1.1 1.7 1.1 1.6Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Jan 2016 11.5 -9.2 3.3 -4.3 0.1 1.7 4.5 4.5 -0.8

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Jan 2016 -5.3 -1.8 -5.4 -4.2 -0.6 -0.5 -6.6 -5.3 0.5Unemployment Jan 2016 6.1 5.9 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.6 6.0 6.1 6.0Participation rate Jan 2016 67.4 68.0 68.3 68.0 68.0 68.2 68.8 67.4 68.8

SASKATCHEWANDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales * Dec 2015 -1.1 0.5 -0.1 -0.7 1.5 -2.9 0.2 -2.9 4.6Manufacturing Shipments * Dec 2015 6.0 -1.7 -0.4 -5.5 -5.1 -11.5 -3.7 -11.5 3.0Housing Starts (000) (2) Jan 2016 4.3 5.0 7.5 5.6 4.9 5.1 5.0 4.3 5.0Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Jan 2016 3.1 -5.5 5.1 7.2 -0.4 -9.6 3.5 3.5 -11.7Wages and Salaries Sept 2015 0.4 -0.5 0.1 -2.3 0.8 2.8 0.9 2.3 4.5Value of merchandise exports (1) Dec 2015 1.3 -11.5 8.1 15.9 -3.1 -8.1 -18.5 -8.1 9.4CFIB Business Barometer ® Jan 2016 4.2 6.8 -9.6 -24.8 21.8 -14.4 6.5 6.5 -13.4Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Oct 2015 6.8 -9.6 -24.8 21.8 -14.4 6.5 #VALUE! -13.4 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) * Jan 2016 0.3 -0.8 0.0 -1.0 0.8 1.7 2.2 2.2 1.4Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jan 2016 1.3 1.8 1.4 13.3 2.4 2.5 4.3 4.3 3.9Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) Dec 2015 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -3.0 -1.1 -0.8 -1.2 -0.8 1.9Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Jan 2016 -0.7 -0.6 0.5 3.5 -1.4 -0.7 -2.4 -2.4 -1.4

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Jan 2016 -1.8 -4.0 1.6 -1.4 0.7 0.5 6.4 -1.8 -7.8Unemployment Jan 2016 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.1 4.5 5.6 4.5Participation rate Jan 2016 70.2 70.4 70.8 70.4 70.4 70.2 69.2 70.2 69.2

Sources: Datastream and Canadian Real estate Association* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate (3) Compared to sdame priod of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A4)

Monthly Growth (%)

A5



ALBERTADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales * Dec 2015 -3.1 1.4 -1.0 -7.5 -1.4 -3.6 -5.5 -3.6 7.5Manufacturing Shipments * Dec 2015 -2.4 0.0 -3.0 -19.8 -10.0 -13.6 -15.9 -13.6 7.5Housing Starts (000) (2) Jan 2016 23.5 26.0 42.9 30.8 32.6 35.9 43.6 23.5 43.6Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Jan 2016 -7.0 -4.7 -1.0 -29.6 -12.6 -20.4 -9.6 -9.6 -23.0Wages and Salaries Sept 2015 0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -6.0 -5.0 1.6 -3.2 0.4 7.4Value of merchandise exports (1) Dec 2015 9.9 -1.1 -15.7 -49.6 -5.8 -24.1 -29.6 -24.1 17.9CFIB Business Barometer ® Jan 2016 -12.8 -11.4 3.4 -34.9 -42.7 -42.3 -47.4 -47.4 -18.8Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Oct 2015 -11.4 3.4 -34.9 -42.7 -42.3 -47.4 #VALUE! -18.8 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) * Jan 2016 0.1 -0.9 -0.3 -2.7 1.5 1.3 2.1 2.1 0.8Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jan 2016 -0.2 -0.5 0.2 1.0 2.8 3.5 2.5 2.5 1.5Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) Dec 2015 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 -0.4 0.7 -0.4 0.7 3.4Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Jan 2016 -3.6 2.6 -0.4 0.5 -1.8 -2.2 -2.6 -2.6 -1.6

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Jan 2016 -10.0 -3.9 -9.4 -7.8 -3.5 -2.9 -35.0 -10.0 5.4Unemployment Jan 2016 7.4 7.0 6.9 7.1 6.8 6.3 4.6 7.4 4.6Participation rate Jan 2016 72.7 72.7 72.9 72.8 72.9 73.0 72.9 72.7 72.9

BRITISH COLUMBIADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales * Dec 2015 -1.4 2.2 -0.3 5.5 5.4 6.9 7.1 6.9 5.6Manufacturing Shipments * Dec 2015 0.7 0.1 -0.1 -1.1 -1.2 1.7 -3.2 1.7 7.0Housing Starts (000) (2) Jan 2016 33.1 35.2 28.1 32.1 31.5 32.0 27.3 33.1 27.3Number of existing homes sold (MLS) * Jan 2016 2.9 2.7 4.9 55.6 24.1 24.5 40.2 40.2 9.6Wages and Salaries Sept 2015 1.0 -0.3 0.2 2.7 2.7 3.3 4.4 3.3 4.0Value of merchandise exports Dec 2015 -3.0 14.2 -8.8 -8.0 -1.6 0.3 -2.2 0.3 7.0CFIB Business Barometer ® Jan 2016 -4.6 -1.1 1.4 5.3 -16.3 -6.0 -12.4 -12.4 -0.3Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Oct 2015 -1.1 1.4 5.3 -16.3 -6.0 -12.4 #VALUE! -0.3 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) * Jan 2016 0.2 -0.3 0.2 -0.8 1.1 1.2 2.3 2.3 0.8Average Hourly Earnings (1) Jan 2016 0.4 0.7 1.0 4.8 1.6 2.8 1.9 1.9 2.3Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) Dec 2015 0.2 0.4 0.3 3.7 2.8 0.8 2.3 0.8 -1.2Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) * Jan 2016 6.2 3.5 1.3 49.3 18.6 13.6 26.9 26.9 4.9

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) Jan 2016 1.2 -7.0 -2.1 -2.6 4.8 4.0 48.6 1.2 4.1Unemployment Jan 2016 6.6 6.7 6.2 6.5 6.4 6.2 5.6 6.6 5.6Participation rate Jan 2016 64.1 64.1 64.1 64.1 64.0 63.5 62.9 64.1 62.9

Sources: Datastream, Canadian Real estate Association and BCStats

* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate (3) Compared to sdame priod of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated

Monthly Growth (%)February 19, 2016

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A5)

A6


TABLE 5 - INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORSFebruary 19, 2016


OECD leading index Dec 2015 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.8 -0.9 -0.3 -0.7 -0.3 0.4

JAPANConsumer confidence - percenbtage (1) Jan 2016 42.1 41.8 41.8 41.9 41.7 41.6 39.2 42.1 39.2Retail Sales (1) * Dec 2015 16.0 -0.5 3.0 20.3 5.4 -0.4 -1.1 -0.4 1.7Industrial Production, Volume Index * Dec 2015 -1.7 -0.9 1.4 2.4 -3.3 -0.9 -1.9 -0.9 2.1Exports * Jan 2016 0.6 -4.0 0.9 -8.1 -5.1 1.3 -10.8 -10.8 16.4Imports * Jan 2016 -1.1 -3.9 -2.5 -25.3 -10.1 -9.4 -16.5 -16.5 -6.6Merchandise trade bal. (Billions of ¥) Dec 2015 819 1,032 -491 453 -930 -586 -3,350 -7,035 -105,521Current account (Billions of ¥) Dec 2015 164 142 149 152 137 136 99 1,629 264Inflation (CPI) Dec 2015 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.8 2.7Job offers to applicants ratio Dec 2015 1.27 1.25 1.24 1.25 1.24 1.20 1.14 1.20 1.09Unemployment Rate Dec 2015 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.6

Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 2015 2014 2013Gross Domestic Product (Constant Yen) * -1.4 1.3 -1.4 4.2 2.5 -2.6 0.5 -0.1 1.4

Euro-zoneVolume Retail Sales Dec 2015 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 1.6 2.5 1.6 2.5 1.2Industrial Production exc. Construction Dec 2015 -1.0 -0.5 0.9 -0.3 0.3 1.3 -0.3 1.3 0.8Exports * Dec 2015 -0.3 1.4 0.2 1.2 -1.4 4.8 1.3 4.8 2.3Imports * Dec 2015 0.8 -0.3 0.2 -0.3 -2.3 2.1 2.6 2.1 0.7Merch. Trade Bal. (Millions of euros) * Dec 2015 20,967 22,575 19,841 21,128 20,735 19,645 20,505 246,294 190,213Inflation (CPI) Jan 2016 -1.4 0.0 -0.2 -1.8 -0.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 -0.6Unemployment Rate Dec 2015 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.5 10.6 10.9 11.4 10.9 11.6

Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 2013 2012 2011Gross Domestic Product (Constant Euro) 1.1 1.2 1.6 2.2 1.5 1.2 -0.4 -0.7 0.0

UNITED KINGDOMConsumer Confidence (Diffusion index) Jan 2016 4 4 1 3 2 3 3 4 3Retail Sales * Jan 2016 2.3 -1.3 1.3 6.3 4.6 4.5 5.3 5.3 6.3Manufacturing, energy and mining output Dec 2015 -1.1 -0.8 0.1 -2.1 0.3 1.0 -0.3 1.0 1.3Exports (1) Dec 2015 -0.3 -1.6 -2.6 -2.6 -7.6 -2.8 -5.6 -2.8 -4.1Imports (1) Dec 2015 -4.8 -0.5 5.8 1.7 -1.5 -1.5 -13.0 -1.5 -1.1Merchandise Trade Bal. (Millions of £) Dec 2015 -9,917 -11,503 -11,308 -10,909 -10,531 -10,315 -10,612 -125,028 -123,143

Inflation (CPI harmonized) (1) * Jan 2016 -1.0 0.3 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4Producer price index, manufacturing (1) * Jan 2016 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -2.2 -1.9 -1.6 -1.0 -1.0 -1.8House prices Jan 2016 1.7 2.0 0.0 9.2 10.6 9.0 10.4 10.4 9.5Unemployment Rate (3-month mov. av.) * Dec 2015 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.7 5.4 6.3

Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 2015 2014 2013Gross Domestic Product (Constant £) 2.0 1.8 2.2 1.5 2.7 1.5 2.2 2.9 2.2

INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATESReference Current Prev. Week Average of last Thurdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.Thursday Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. ago ago ago

JAPANPrime Rate * 18 Feb 16 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.303-month Financing Bill Rate * 18 Feb 16 -0.11 -0.12 -0.17 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 -0.11 -0.02 0.01

- Spread with U.S. * 18 Feb 16 -0.41 -0.40 -0.46 -0.30 -0.18 -0.10 -0.22 -0.04 -0.01Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 18 Feb 16 0.03 0.01 0.06 0.21 0.27 0.34 0.30 0.36 0.39

- Spread with U.S. * 18 Feb 16 -1.74 -1.63 -1.80 -1.87 -1.85 -1.81 -1.96 -1.71 -1.74Exchange Rate (¥/U.S.$) * 18 Feb 16 113.2 112.4 116.8 118.7 119.7 120.7 122.9 123.4 118.9

Euro Zone3-month Treasury Bills * 18 Feb 16 -0.21 -0.20 -0.19 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 -0.10 -0.03 0.03

- Spread with U.S. * 18 Feb 16 -0.51 -0.48 -0.48 -0.39 -0.24 -0.14 -0.21 -0.05 0.01Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 18 Feb 16 0.00 120.30 119.98 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.00 0.00 $$ER: E100

- Spread with U.S. * 18 Feb 16 -1.76 118.66 118.12 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -2.26 -2.07 #VALUE!Exchange Rate (U.S.$/Euro) * 18 Feb 16 1.11 1.13 1.12 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.07 1.12 1.14

(Yen/Euro) * 18 Feb 16 126.17 127.30 131.49 129.87 132.05 133.23 131.60 138.50 135.52(Euro / £ ) * 18 Feb 16 1.30 1.27 1.31 1.34 1.36 1.38 1.43 1.40 1.36

UNITED KINGDOMPrime Rate #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!3-month Treasury Bills (tender) * 18 Feb 16 0.47 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.48 0.48 0.32

- Spread with U.S. * 18 Feb 16 0.17 0.20 0.19 0.23 0.33 0.38 0.37 0.46 0.30Yield on 30-year Gov't Bonds * 18 Feb 16 2.33 2.17 2.37 2.49 2.54 2.56 2.61 2.47 2.55

- Spread with U.S. * 18 Feb 16 -0.30 -0.34 -0.33 -0.37 -0.37 -0.33 -0.40 -0.27 -0.18Exchange Rate (U.S.$ / £ ) * 18 Feb 16 1.43 1.45 1.46 1.47 1.50 1.52 1.53 1.57 1.54

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%) Since

Past Prev. Month beginning of year

Reference Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.

MSCI Eafe * Feb 2016 199 -4.9 -4.8 -3.2 -12.4 -18.8 -16.2 -9.5 3.2

* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Compared to same period of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated Source: Datastream


Monthly Growth (%)

A7


Spot Price Weekly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%)

Last Prev. Week For the Last Last

Fev 18 Fev 11 Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. Year

INDICES THOMSON-REUTERS

Total 369.3 363.1 1.7 -2.1 0.7 -14.4 -14.1 -15.4 436.6

Energy 283.0 268.4 5.4 -7.4 -2.0 -57.9 -45.2 -36.3 444.2Grain 287.7 284.9 1.0 -1.7 0.6 -3.6 -8.2 -10.0 319.8Industrials 322.0 314.2 2.5 -4.5 0.9 -10.0 -19.6 -14.4 376.2Livestock & Meat 371.2 358.6 3.5 -3.4 0.5 63.2 3.1 -7.5 401.4Precious Metals 754.8 769.6 -1.9 6.8 4.2 50.7 -2.2 -8.3 823.3

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold ($/ounce) 1204.40 1223.25 -1.5 6.7 2.4 58.7 12.0 -1.1 1217.75(AM fixing London)

Platinum ($/ounce) 942.0 939.0 0.3 5.5 0.7 44.6 -14.0 -20.2 1180.0(AM fixing London)

Silver ($/ounce) 15.4 15.9 -3.1 7.0 4.4 32.9 -1.2 -6.3 16.5(Handy & Harman)

Palladium ($/ounce troy) 507.0 521.0 -2.7 2.4 2.0 -18.1 -32.5 -35.1 781.0

OTHER METALS (LME)

Aluminum ($/tonne) 1,529 1,485 3.0 -3.3 1.3 22.4 -2.8 -15.0 1,799

Copper ($/tonne) 4,576 4,454 2.7 -5.1 3.3 -6.4 -20.3 -20.6 5,766

Zinc ($/tonne) 1,699 1,711 -0.7 -0.4 9.0 58.1 -11.9 -17.6 2,062

Nickel ($/tonne) 8,327 7,562 10.1 -11.1 -0.5 -23.8 -35.5 -40.2 13,928

Lead ($/tonne) 1,714 1,840 -6.8 1.9 8.0 39.9 0.9 -3.8 1,782

Uranium (UxC-Ux U308 Spot $/pound) 34.00 34.25 -0.7 -1.2 -0.3 -20.4 -12.0 -11.1 38.25

OTHER COMMODITIES

Oil WTI ($/barrel) future 30.77 26.21 17.4 -17.4 -4.5 -66.8 -44.1 -39.9 51.16(NYMEX)

Oil (Spead with WTI $/barrel) 1st future -12.65 -12.15 4.1 -14.7 -3.4 -50.7 -27.9 -0.8 -12.75(West Canadian select - CME)

Corn (¢/bushel) 358.5 354.0 1.3 -2.2 0.3 -2.7 2.6 -3.8 372.5(Illinois #2)

Soy beans (¢/bushel) 873.5 864.5 1.0 -0.1 0.2 8.9 -13.6 -12.5 998.5(Illinois #1)

Pork (¢/lb) 142.9 150.1 -4.8 14.2 0.0 0.9 -38.5 41.7 100.9

Beef (Cattle feeder index) 157.8 158.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8 -36.4 -46.6 -25.0 210.5(CME)

Woodpulp NBSK 900 900 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 900Metric ton delivered in U.S.

Natural Gas (mmbtu) 1.87 2.12 -11.8 3.4 -3.3 -42.8 -52.4 -37.0 2.97Henry Hub future NYMEX

Lumber 2X4 263 246 7.0 -1.8 3.6 36.7 6.1 -12.7 301

Iron ore ($/metric ton) 47 45 4.5 0.0 4.7 -1.7 -33.8 -27.4 65

All prices are in US dollars Source: Datastream

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 6 - COMMODITY PRICES

February 19, 2016

A8


ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY

Montreal Office Toronto Office 514-879-2529 416-869-8598 Stéfane Marion Marc Pinsonneault Warren Lovely Chief Economist & Strategist Senior Economist MD, Public Sector Research and Strategy [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Paul-André Pinsonnault Matthieu Arseneau Senior Fixed Income Economist Senior Economist [email protected] [email protected]

Krishen Rangasamy Angelo Katsoras Senior Economist Geopolitical Associate Analyst [email protected] [email protected]

General: National Bank Financial Markets is a business undertaken by National Bank Financial Inc. (“NBF”), an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of National Bank of Canada, and a division of National Bank of Canada. This research has been produced by NBF. National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on Canadian stock exchanges. The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. Canadian Residents: In respect of the distribution of this report in Canada, NBF accepts responsibility for its contents. To make further inquiry related to this report or effect any transaction, Canadian residents should contact their NBF Investment advisor. U.S. Residents: With respect to the distribution of this report in the United States, National Bank of Canada Financial Inc. (NBCFI) is regulated by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and a member of the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC). This report has been prepared in whole or in part by, research analysts employed by non-US affiliates of NBCFI that are not registered as broker/dealers in the US. These non-US research analysts are not registered as associated persons of NBCFI and are not licensed or qualified as research analysts with FINRA or any other US regulatory authority and, accordingly, may not be subject (among other things) to FINRA restrictions regarding communications by a research analyst with the subject company, public appearances by research analysts and trading securities held a research analyst account. All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analysts’ personal views regarding any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of the analysts’ compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. The analyst responsible for the production of this report certifies that the views expressed herein reflect his or her accurate personal and technical judgment at the moment of publication. Because the views of analysts may differ, members of the National Bank Financial Group may have or may in the future issue reports that are inconsistent with this report, or that reach conclusions different from those in this report. To make further inquiry related to this report, United States residents should contact their NBCFI registered representative. UK Residents: In respect of the distribution of this report to UK residents, National Bank Financial Inc. has approved the contents (including, where necessary, for the purposes of Section 21(1) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000). National Bank Financial Inc. and/or its parent and/or any companies within or affiliates of the National Bank of Canada group and/or any of their directors, officers and employees may have or may have had interests or long or short positions in, and may at any time make purchases and/or sales as principal or agent, or may act or may have acted as market maker in the relevant securities or related financial instruments discussed in this report, or may act or have acted as investment and/or commercial banker with respect thereto. The value of investments can go down as well as up. Past performance will not necessarily be repeated in the future. The investments contained in this report are not available to retail customers. This report does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for the securities described herein nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This information is only for distribution to Eligible Counterparties and Professional Clients in the United Kingdom within the meaning of the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority. National Bank Financial Inc. is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and has its registered office at 71 Fenchurch Street, London, EC3M 4HD. National Bank Financial Inc. is not authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Financial Conduct Authority to accept deposits in the United Kingdom. Copyright: This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or further distributed or published or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions or conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express written consent of National Bank Financial.

february 19, 2016€¦ · february 19, 2016 week in review canada – the consumer price index rose...

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