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Feasibility Analysis for a Manned Mars Free-Return Mission in 2018
Future In-Space Operations (FISO) telecon colloquium
Dennis Tito, Taber MacCallum, John Carrico, Mike Loucks
3 April, 2013
Authors
Dennis A. Tito Wilshire Associates Incorporated
Grant Anderson Paragon Space Development
Corporation
John P. Carrico, Jr. Applied Defense Solutions, Inc.
Jonathan Clark, MD
Center for Space Medicine Baylor College Of Medicine
Barry Finger Paragon Space Development
Corporation
Gary A Lantz Paragon Space Development
Corporation
Michel E. Loucks Space Exploration Engineering
Corporation
Taber MacCallum Paragon Space Development
Corporation
Jane Poynter Paragon Space Development
Corporation
Thomas H. Squire Thermal Protection Materials NASA Ames Research Center
S. Pete Worden Brig. Gen., USAF, Ret.
NASA AMES Research Center
Tito, MacCallum, Carrico, Loucks FISO 3 April, 2013 2
Background
o Worked on first Mars flyby trajectory at JPL: Mariner 4 • Presented at the 2nd Annual AIAA Meeting
o Started researching trajectories for human deep space missions
o This research led to the identification of a rare, 501-day, “Quick Free-return” Mars fly-by launch opportunity in January, 2018
o Commissioned feasibility study for publication at IEEE
Tito, MacCallum, Carrico, Loucks FISO 3 April, 2013 3
Moonish R. Patel, James M. Longuski, Jon A. Sims, Mars Free Return Trajectories, JOURNAL OF SPACECRAFT AND ROCKETS, Vol. 35, No. 3, May–June 1998
Tito, MacCallum, Carrico, Loucks FISO 3 April, 2013 4
Trajectory
o A 501-day “free-return” Mars flyby passing within a hundred miles of the surface
• Only small correction maneuvers are needed during transit
o Simple mission architecture lowers risk
• No entry into Mars atmosphere o An exceptionally quick free return
occurs twice every 15 years • 1.4 years duration vs. 2 to 3.5 years
typical • Launch Jan 5, 2018, (or 2031) • Mars on 20 Aug 2018 (227 days) • Earth on 20 May 2019 (274 days) • At Mars, Earth is 38,000,000 miles
away o Video
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBGlYNd2tmA
Tito, MacCallum, Carrico, Loucks FISO 3 April, 2013 6
Trajectory Targeting
Leg Stay Time (days) Depart Arrive
Flight Time (days)
1 Earth JAN 5, 2018, 7.1756 hours GMT Julian Date 58123.7990 Mars AUG 20, 2018, 7.8289 hours GMT
Julian Date 58350.8262 227.0272
2 0.0000 Mars AUG 20, 2018, 7.8289 hours GMT Julian Date 58350.8262 Earth MAY 21, 2019, 20.9618 hours GMT
Julian Date 58625.3734 274.5472
Total Duration 501.5744
Optimized 2-body/patched-conic trajectory values from Mission Analysis Environment (MAnE, from Space Flight Solutions):
Leg Stay Time (days)
Depart Arrive Flight Time (days)
1 Earth 5 Jan 2018 07:00:00.000 UTCG Mars 20 Aug 2018 08:18:19.619
UTCG 227.05439374
2 0.0000 Mars 20 Aug 2018 08:18:19.619 UTCG Earth 21 May 2019 13:52:48.012
UTCG 274.23227306
Total Duration 501.2866668
Fully numerically integrated trajectory (using JPL 421 Ephemerides) values from STK/Astrogator (From Analytical Graphics, Inc.)
Leg
Departure Arrival V Inf V peri C3 V Inf V peri C3 (km/s) (km/s) (km2/s2) (km/s) (km/s) (km2/s2)
1 6.232 12.578 38.835 5.417 7.272 29.344 2 5.417 7.272 29.344 8.837 14.18 78.094
Leg V Inf (km/s)
V Inf (km/s)
1 6.22697 5.42540 2 5.42540 8.91499
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Mar’s Motion Relative to Trajectory
(3)Low Earth Checkout and Deployment (4) Trans Mars Injection
Burn
(6) Mars Encounter Entrance
(11)Land on Earth
(5) Trans Mars Trajectory Phase
(8) Mars Encounter Exit
(1) Launch Fuel Supply ?
(9) Trans Earth Trajectory
(10) Earth Reentry Sequence
(7) Mars Proximity Trajectory
(2) Launch Human Crew
Event Phase
Events: Launch Fuel Supply: TMI - 1 Months ? Launch Human Crew: TMI - < 2 Weeks Trans Mars Injection: TMI Mars Encounter Entrance: TMI + 8 Mo Mars Encounter Exit: TMI + 8 Mo Earth Reentry Sequence: TMI + 8 Mo Land on Earth: TMI + 17 Mo
Phases (Durations): Low Earth Checkout and Deployment: < 2 Weeks Trans Mars Trajectory: 8 Months Mars Proximity: ~ 24 hours Trans Earth Trajectory: 9 Months Earth Reentry Phase: 24 Hours
Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18
LEO C&D Trans Mars Trajectory
MPT
Nov 18 Dec 18 Jan 19 Feb 19 Mar 19 Apr 19 May 19
Trans Earth Trajectory
Trans Earth Trajectory (Cont’d)
ERP
NEN/USN/TDRSS DSN/Other*
NEN/USN DSN/Other**
Low Earth Orbit Phase: 1) Fuel Supply Launch ? 2) Human Crew Launch 3) Crew & Fuel Rendezvous ? 4) Systems Checkout 5) Inflatable Deployment 6) Trans Mars Injection Burn
Earth Reentry Phase: 1) Upper Stage Jettison 2) Inflatable Jettison 3) Entry Interface Attitude Alignment 4) Atmospheric Entry 5) Parachute Deployment 6) Land On Earth
DSN/Other
DSN/Other/MRO/MAVEN
Phase
Ground Network
Calendar
Phase
Ground Network
Calendar
Perihelion - 11 Mar 2019
Mars Periareion 20 Aug 2018
MRO – 2005
MAVEN - 2013
** NEN begins to transition in
• NEN begins to transition out
Trajectory Perspective M
iles AU
Black = Spacecraft distance from Earth (miles) Green = Spacecraft distance from Mars (miles) Red = Spacecraft distance from the Sun in Astronomical Units (AU)
Object Distance From Sun
Mars Orbital Track
Earth Orbital Track
Venus Orbital Track
Spacecraft Trajectory
Mars Flyby
Perihelion (Close to Venus Orbit*)
*Venus is not present when the spacecraft is at perihelion
Falcon Heavy Option
o First flight scheduled for 2013
o Man-rated design o 53,000 kg to LEO o 10,000 kg to Mars
for this mission o Free-return
trajectory enables upper stage to stay attached for shielding
Graphic courtesy SpaceX
Graphic courtesy SpaceX
Falcon Heavy
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ULA Options o Option 1:
• Launch 1: Atlas 552: includes 18.1 mT useable propellant
• Launch 2: Atlas 552: with 10.5 mT payload
o Option 2: • Launch 1: Atlas 552: with
10.5 mT payload
• Launch 2: Delta HLV: with 10.5 mT payload
Tito, MacCallum, Carrico, Loucks
Transfer 12 mT of propellant
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o Atmospheric reentry vehicles require thermal protection systems (TPS) because they are subjected to intense heating
o The level of the heating is dependent on:
• Vehicle shape • Entry speed and flight trajectory • Atmospheric composition • TPS material composition & surface
properties
o Reentry heating to the vehicle comes from two primary Sources • Convective heating from both the flow of hot gas past the surface
of the vehicle and catalytic chemical recombination reactions at the surface
• Radiation heating from the energetic shock layer in front of the vehicle
Earth Reentry Overview
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o Magnitude of stagnation heating is dependent on a variety of parameters, including reentry speed (V), vehicle effective radius (R), and atmospheric density (ρ)
o As reentry speed increases, both convective and radiation
heating increase • At high speeds, such as 14.2 Km/s, radiation heating
can quickly dominate o As the effective vehicle radius increases,
convective heating decreases, but radiation heating increases
o Reentry g-loading is a parameter we are considering
Reentry Heating Parameters
2R
V
R
5.03
∝
RVqconv
ρ 5.02.18 RVqrad ρ∝
Convective Heating Shock Radiation Heating
Tito, MacCallum, Carrico, Loucks FISO 3 April, 2013 17
ECLSS Launch Mass
MacCallum, Carrico, Loucks
Legend: Basis System Consumables + Packaging CR-2006-213694 /corrected to replace Biomass with additional packaged food
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ECLSS Resources: 2 Person Crew for 501 Days
MacCallum, Carrico, Loucks
Subsystem Mass 1
(kg) Vol 2
(m) 3 Peak 1
Power (W) Avg
Power (W)
Air 897 1.7 2,626 1,870
Water 2,235 5.1 529 193
Food 1,384 4.0 3 1,860 39
Thermal 479 1.0 300 99
Crew Waste 259 0.7 174 7
Human Accommodations 347 1.8 - -
Basic System 2,470 6.6 5,189 2,109
Consumables 3,131 7.7 - -
Total = 5,601 14.3 5,489 2,109
1 Mass and power estimates based on ANSI/AIAA G-020-1992, Guide for Estimating and Budgeting Weight and Power Contingencies For Spacecraft Systems 2 Volumes are total volume and do not account for packaging factors 3 Errata corrected from paper (estimated food volume is 4 m3)
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Radiation Environment Risk Assessment
o Mission occurs during solar minimum o Expert consensus: risk is manageable
Risk of Exposure-Induced Death 500-d Mars Flyby (GCR + SPEprob)
MacCallum, Carrico, Loucks
o Multiple dose mitigation strategies can be used to reduce the risk • Upper stage & propellant
residuals • Water storage placement • Crew selection • Dietary/pharmaceuticals
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Conclusion
o Completed initial conceptual feasibility study o Ongoing development includes
• Schedule & Program • Human Health and Radiation • Launch (technical assessment) • Spacecraft architecture • ECLSS • TPS assessment • Trajectory optimization
o Expand interaction with NASA, aerospace industry, and academia
MacCallum, Carrico, Loucks FISO 3 April, 2013 25