2010 CONSULTING PARTNERS MEETING

Exploring the role of water security in regional economic development

Dr Mohamed AIT KADI

Technical Committee Chair

Stockholm, September 2010

13 Regional Water Partnerships

73 Country Water Partnerships

2,069 Partners in 149 countries

Creating platforms for regional cooperation

Water as a catalyst for regional cooperation

«but the water problems of our world need not be only a cause of tension; they can also

be a catalyst for cooperation…If we work together, a secure and sustainable water future

can be ours…  » Kofi Annan

Plan of this talk

• Why the present Age of Globalisation should be supplemented by an Age of Global/Regional Cooperation?

• What are the drivers of Regional Water Cooperation?

• What are the key implications for GWP?

5

Why global/regional cooperation?

Water

Food

Energy

CC

Finance

Conflicts

Problems are interconnected Cannot be solved by 1 country

Mohamed AIT KADI GWP/TEC

WaterClimateChange

EnergyAgriculture

The problems are interconnected

Mohamed AIT KADI GWP/TEC

8

Agriculture-Water-Climate Change nexus

WATER

AGRICULTURE CLIMATECHANGE

FSRai

nfed

/ Irr

igat

ion

Gre

en W

ater

/Blu

e W

ater

Scarcity/Droughts/Floods

IWR

MMitigation /AdaptationAg. Reforms

Yield declinesCrop and livestock losses

Change in agricultural geographyBiofuels

Mohamed AIT KADI GWP/TEC

Problems can’t be solved by countries acting in isolation

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

200

400

600

800

US

$/b

arre

l

US

$/to

n

Corn

Wheat

Rice

Oil (right scale)

Source: von Braun 2008 with data from FAO 2008 and IMF 2008.

Diverse policy responses to food crisis

Trade restriction

Trade liberaliz.

Consumer subsidy

Social protection

Increase supply

AsiaBangladesh X X X XChina X X X XIndia X X X X XIndonesia X X XMalaysia X X XThailand X X X

Latin AmericaArgentina X X X XBrazil X X XMexico X X XPeru X X XVenezuela X X X X

AfricaEgypt X X X XEthiopia X X X XGhana X XKenya XNigeria X X XTanzania X X X

Source: von Braun 2008 with data from IMF, FAO, and news reports, 2007-08.

The age of consequences 

Mohamed AIT KADI GWP/TEC

Rio

ts

Political Stability

Food Secur

ity

Energy Securit

y

The volatility in food prices in 2008 should be treated as a warning sign of what is to come!

Mohamed AIT KADI GWP/TEC

Opportunities for Water Cooperation

Type of Cooperation The Challenge The Opportunities

Increasing the benefits to the river

Degraded water quality, watersheds, wetlands, and biodiversity

Improved water quality, river flow characteristics, soil conservation, biodiversity and overall sustainability

Increasing benefits from the river

Increasing demands for water, sub-optimal WRM-D

Improved WRM (Agri +hydrop) flood-drought management, navigation, environmental conservation, water quality and recreation

Reduced costs because of the river

Tense regional relations and political economy impacts

Coop & Dev (dispute/conflict resolution, food/ energy self-sufficiency), security

Increasing benefits beyond the river

Regional fragmentation Integration of regional infrastructure, markets and trade

C.W. Sadoff, D. Grey / Water Policy (2002)

Plan of this talk

• Why the present Age of Globalisation should be supplemented by an Age of Global/Regional Cooperation?

• What are the drivers of Regional Water Cooperation?

• What are the key implications for GWP?

14

Geography

Resources endowment/variability

Trade

Democracy & Governance

Power asymmetries

Diplomatic relations

Political regimes

Colonial heritages….

Drivers of regional water cooperation

Mohamed AIT KADI GWP/TEC

Resources endowments

coopCoop

wsS

Climate change impact on resources endowment & variability

Coop

WS

Model-Projected Runoff Change (%)[(2041-2060)-(1900-1970)]

(Milly et al., 2005)

Increasing risk

Global Development Center

Trade

Trade

Geography

Resources endowment/variability

Trade

Democracy & Governance

Power asymmetries

Diplomatic relations

Political regimes

Colonial heritages….

Drivers of regional water cooperation

Mohamed AIT KADI GWP/TEC

Plan of this talk

• Why the present Age of Globalisation should be supplemented by an Age of Global/Regional Cooperation ?

• What are the drivers of Regional Water Cooperation?

• What are the key implications for GWP?

22

Key implications for GWP

Promote water security within the water/food/energy/trade/economic development nexus.

Identify opportunities for building regional cooperation.

Encourage the inclusion of water on regional economic integration agendas.

 

Mohamed AIT KADI GWP/TEC

Key implications for GWP

IWRM deserves constant reinforcement through technical and political requirements

Catalyse multisectoral platforms on development challenges and their solutions.

Nurture shared visions of the future that can serve as a basis for cooperation.

Mohamed AIT KADI GWP/TEC

Comment nourrir l’humanité?