PWAOOOOS

Pilgrim LR Proceeding

SO-293-LR, 06-S4S-02-LR

Economic Consequences of a Rad/Nuc attack: Cleanup Standards Significantly Affect

Cost Barbara Reichmuth. Steve Short. Tom Wood. Fred Rutz. Debbie Swartz. Pacific

Northwest National laboratory. 2005- Lessons Learned

\' ng ogeo:ller. R & P~p& I HorreI3'ld Sec=uI1ty I ~1 2IXl5 1 606IDn. ~

kClnOlml~ eon. .... nce. of • RedINuc A"'~k: CINnut» .... ,da tlllniftenUy AIhc:t c..e

........ __ h

81 . .... 8n..-1 r_ w _ _ N __ ."~""'I'

WartoJ •• Tog • ....., II... ,,& D."--,, «R&DI _ .. hlpo I. _....... CO"If.,_

.. H . 2005, _on, MA

OVerview

• IfllIClIWICe EOOIICIltc ~ ;:vamtIoo • EIr.lI allOIlOOl)' •

12006 1 Bo6IDn, ~

Why Evaluate Economic Consequences?

rnt I~ 15 ~ ;JeecteG a;ea?

JorGer:

on~ or

ac:I0I'l5 I!eed to be tile ID prtlteCIIllle popul • on .

Economic Evaluation Taxonomy

IEconol'nic Consequence Callculation Methodology

• ~~~IIi>.rt~~~:51S:~l!Ii f(H!alrKlTll~ • F_~..en"'_kdl r._Yori. SIlJd)" • Sr ..d3 NSIor: I..,3b. Ral1T1I'i1I1 V EmnlT"~ t Mode:t

• F'OCll!i 00 ~ b'md ~ ,m! Oll2 [$:mlS): • W!J"' olllf'Jrtlnll"~ - looted e(ltll'1Orilc eftI!m or rmI - LDz i3l'ddF"~ 'b ~ ~~ • Cl:1:ootlI"*'oI:on ..-.:Idec"""" [CAO)«« ildudilg d~ - EJi'KtDt'aI cmt

• ~ doK rd CIIIIEf1he unl;~« all po66tJ1:! ecIIOXIic ~ • DMfSIy or rneteoroIogICaJ omiltlOO6 rDlevallill:llca;

• FoWr; &31S11Ml)' ~ Of CIearu..fJ ~ 1 __ a. ~"""1 ·---,-"",;r~1 1'-_. _ _ ~_

~""''''''''''' "SG -Econollf1ic Consequence Criteria

~t~~~: locations tram " oIa1ed rural to high d~n~';ty

-

e. R • CIB1I!1i1m. SC • DelmIt Mi • san V5I1I1I, CA

SIi' yen cny, NY I. E",a l uat~ consequences "or 4 w~apon types:

• !J.7k lllJjearweapoo • 1JU nlD1!ilrweapa1 • 1 n

Potential Ralilge of Cleanllp G'Llidanee f or a RadlNuc Event - , Whic h One Do We Use?

lD11I1ft1"o'\'r _F11YSl:sliad!ll'_-' ............ tlr_ AdIan. FcboInlI" Radbloglall TmarIII EIIonr

-

':l

I II j ~

-

EP ,.,... rtt __ GUdosmd--... AdGnsftlr NuDeIr-..... '4IJIH{-92-aJ~." __ .. mrlllVe __ 1heftlSl ... l rxt_1Ic5mn· EP ,.,... rtt_fdonGYdes ___ AdansftlrNuDelr-...,·4IJIH{-92-1111. ,. ___

... 1ntJe ..... lrxt_2rem· !fie _fllr_,o\gIiIIB-.· ~on..-d~~ltmI..".~ ... 5 mn/Jr C1DCFR211 ~c,

Radioacliviity Decays Over Time

'ILO I 0,1 1 10 100

Doc

Hypothetical 100 kT Plume Contours for 5 Clean up Lev,e,ls

uenee Summary By Cleanup Level for IHypothetical Weapon Events

'K~ r----------------------------------

1:::11 II =7": I e i:::: .~=1-~-I==t;::~-i=::::~::::::::~~~ ~ , ...... ii-_~i------i------j.i-----..... ------;~

''': ~~~~i;::;~~;;:;;:~~;:;~~:;:;;:~~

~.

5

~~I iii: =.r : ~ 9 1 1 1 1 1

onsequence Summary - 13 kli

a l i l l flli l i l

Consequence SummalY - 1110 kT

in~ I-~~~~------------------~~~~ ~Ifl~ r-~~--~--~~~ __ =~~-----------------

'~ I Ii I Ii 111"1 ; I I I - ''''"=. Conse,quence Summary - i ll kCi C5-1137

1,. .... ",, 1

.. "-I)CII) 1--.:::--------------11

10 1..-------'-..::-=-=-_~-_-_......."il

-15-'11' 100"'-';'" I!UO ."_"

CIoin"",~

~.

7

Conclusions

• El:OncrnIc ~ Of a Rad.,}U: el.'l!I1la-e ~ depemlBll an E>ill~S3nlfi1l; • =OO&';5~=~dlirnlllcall)' b"&amBSmae

e3i1~ 00 tte a;t ~ wrent stn:Iard6 (no Il'I:t.Er 'Mlal ~ = allarget or we~ even'f) Im!J1I1I!6I1'1e ~ CI

• BeeaJse aD1 an el.'l!I1l COIle! pote:TUarf ~ 00Rtr.If 'lEI)' ~. eo> _ an E!l/ert a"rEmalE' IOcaIIOII CCWI /1a'~ hUge 1!CIlIlOfI1~ ~

• A I!'~ aw41ll3Ch 00 the cie'IeIDpreIll and appI'ca!oo Of clalIJP ~~

• PtlICf caI!oo6 or ou::n a d:e3i1~ ne£jj 00 lie e','aua1E!l • a:ea'1~ altEr a III-eapoo. E!lEm II lie I/'aS11j1lI1TerEIl'! Cl2i1l1.11

Of a ~ m~ ny Ill' tllmIerweapa1S pmdlEtloo f3:t -

BaCik -up SI ides

-- ~.

Economic Consequence Calculation Methodology

Focu> CI11'tu tmld

RDD Yield -10 kCi (s-137

u ........

- • lis 1" Conseque.nce Summary -11.7 kT

-10

Consequence Summary - 13 kT

-Conseqluence Summal'Y - 100 kT

-11

VlI:mng ~ R & P~p; I HIIm2I3n~ sewm:y I "~1 2006 1 Bo5IDn,. ~ PM\1.-SA-45 5l5,

EOONOM[c CO~SEQUENCI1S. OF A R..IDl'IiUC .ATI.~CK: CLE..i\,WP SLi\,'mARJ)S SIGNIFICANlLY AITiEcr COST

BariJara Rie:iC!hmuiD, SI!E1'e SoDl1t. TOI!l Wood!, F~ llllIlZ, ' ebb:: ScbmIl11z, !>aciii!c L :orth.west NiIlio:nW. L B >e",'pend to conti.mJ.e thrOl@! 2035, 'Thi..; pa:pe! offer> ,ill! eCODIIll:k!l~ 00. the n:agoitude offue ,consec..ue.oIiei foo ,a s~,~ da~. of 1lW"if-1S mille lililied Slates. with an e:o:.JI~si; 00. co.t sm;itMi}' iI.5 fue d eilllllp, st3a!dardl >c:l!ange;,

ThforRODUCTIO, '

The pr~ o~ ' IWdar ,ai:lild olllDe 'l!.ited S1lIre; V.Ti15 ooog th~ to> be r.estti:ct~ to,!he dol!lai.n of state a.dM5~ Fo~ov.ling the tmori;h!~-enl; (lf S.epli!!!ii.ber 11. 2001. a:c.d other IL'4Il'e recen.l lm orist acfuoit:i.es arolJIldille 1;\'orlrl!, con.c:eJlIl5 ilhout ' E:rl'e; oftemlr ' ttac::kB. in.dulfu!,g jlOt.mti.1 IJIdiologi.cal ,aDd 1lIXleil.r ,at1llci£;. fulve been IIlJI6llffied. The ~lighl ful; 51ilil~ to COUlll~..; lru!.t \l, >eEilll!r.reduce 1lh.e Ji};~00I! or red1lC,e d);, ,consec..ue.oIie, ob adEoJo.: .ill (lr nude.u {RlI Cue) terri! ' ;t iIl1lIcik,

The d:dsi.o[J to, mvest io Rad.'l'\ue (0'llDtmr.~UIl!; (;ilI! be vfewOO a.; a tta.d!!offbe1l!.'eeI! imre5lll:::n.I co;t ali' the CClUIl1l!Iineil5Ure ,;md fu: ,eOD5elJlJmcei afd);, f\~, 'Ibm ar.e 1Ioth !lllysical COIL;eqll:n.c:es aod e::(l1lllIllk coo;equ:n.c:es tliat ll'OOlJd re>lll.I from 11 RlId!'Nu( event Ecoll.OllIlic :i.n:.Jlilc.l; ,=ed by an event. ,;md!he ;'lIb:;equen.l Je5]l0llSe 10 IDe f\ 'mt. neerl lo be addre;sed :in 5!!qn.e.cW order iUldb2gm mt:h!he phy;' ill impilcts 0: !he od:aonatiol!, illmospheric

V,'alf1"llJ ~ R 8. P~p; I HomeIa:1 8eoIJrtty I }!p11 2006 I Bc6IDr\. ~ ilNl'.1-SA-45 SIS,

d5per,ian. ,md d!!pOruiom of tDE fiillout frnm I!);, W8ilPOl!l, Ph)"; ' cat comeqtJl!ll.~ cOOtale the ll".3pon;:efunctionicd1l.diog tDe Ioog-mm deilllllJl' aM ;ire Il!51:0Ltti0n iliCriaC5lii1rem. 0D.e of the I:eClIIriI!.g il!.en:e; r,e~dinf: e\'l!ll.trespame is ihal there all! CUIIl!I!. ily 110 fedmt ;iimdMds Ibat OI\'~ the lon.g- ' ;,rm 5i!e .restonttiOlll iI!Il.d mmup fOl!!lling ,~ l!ildi.o~gil:al. or impro\>is!!d! l!.ude.u d.e\oke (iNn) Ierrori..,1 ,mci.

ThE co;ii to de;mup or r~te ~ ilfferud ilrea i; hi.-:ili.l)' ;;.ens:itive 10 tDE mm'!Ip ~1iID1ilud , llP]~!!d! to the even.I. 'li'I)o..Ie iIre CiIllTelIll)·l!.o, dewru]) !.tallJi1!.r,dS sped' [ly de5igD9d fur RaiLNm: lerron.,1: I!!."ellli hlIl it j ; liikely thlI l tlu! eJilitiog EJto!;. aIllI NIl ;111~ mruld ~PJl!y d.ef.ld:o [1).

E Gen.eral Arc.OUDtin.g Offi~e (GAOo) reports ihal the amreIiI EPA and ! ;RC mmup ;:tiIlldiuds diffH i1DlI tDEle dlliferu!De. harve implicmollS fur hoth IbE :pa;oe i1DlI ra!t:iI!Ila.te ,COjl of c~ [1).

ThE iDep!libJlmtofE[J~(DOE) 1ia.s 5]leJl!b-JIiom of d moo superfund mmup ,atfom:::I wei!pOllS prodJI.ctiom ;lte; andth.e deilllllll' i; e~ertedllo cOlltirrue 1!brough 2035 [3]. fu 2003 rec~ !he impOJ1llllXle of thi; is;ue, I!);, Depilltmleot ofHoIJ:eliuui Secur.iIy (DES) liIs};ed iID iotl!Fa.§J!OCj' iI-orIctn.g group to, addre;s the i;>D.e 0: PrHcmve AcitOO[J G1i:d\>.Jine!; (p-o!tGs) for odiolo,,,- at cli;:persil d.e\~~. D;,) ,;md iIDpro\>is!!d! !lI.Jdeu d:evi~e (Il\ID) icddenl!l. DES anticipale5 ,~ dIlIfi oftha! ~oe to he is;u!!d! in the FWimJ RJ1gistgr in Ulle of OO?

This Pi!pel' offa;; an eaJcomir p~ec.1ive om tlu! !I1lL&Iitw:lE 0'0' the coo.;;equ~ for selecled tafget;li\i,lIl ,lUI ,emphasis Oll CO&! ;:en;iti\~my a.lbe mmup i'IaIldiud chacg,es , ThE '1i\'1Ilik de5cribed proride; il fi!im;:i\fOn Within ilmicb the pEry;ial OIC5eqUence5 oJ a RadlNm: 1tKk can e lm1JEJiI1ed mto !he eaJllOll:.ic C(lmequenc:es en U , do s.. These e-ffe.:iI> need 10 he 1I1Dw;toodi ie 0J'd.er to pre;;crib.;, '~l1.J1ropriMe ,conctem:ea>UIl!; ,;md policy ren:eID!!"

.A M:E4fEOI)OI!OGY FOR ECONOMIC CO~SEQli1ENCE CALCULoiTIOoNS

For Ibis S1!Jdly, "RIIlffN1Lc~ >p= a ~e ofp!l6;;ible!ll.JClear weillOll5 ami o[Je ilIge radiQlogir d5per,ion ~\~.e:

• I), k cudei!r il1filPOll • WOkI' [lllmar 'Ii\' e~po[J • 13kI'n1Laear'Ii\'eilpllD • 10 kG Cs-13 IUID

Fi.ve Po!l!ll.1ial.lilFgffi 'IIeIl! seJ.~ted IilDgin.g from an iso ~ted .1T1IllI ,ma lo vey 1Ii,;b ,liens:ily uro~D area" ._ID 0:0 the fo!lowing tafgffi ill!! located on U,S, &rdf!£!i ill!.iL'Or Poo;; ofEDtty mto the UDir!!d! States:

• Llllml1 AZ • San Ysidro., -PI. • CtwlP.3ton, S • Ne",' Y~ City, NY • D"troit. Mli

E' 'onola)' of locatio:m, li\'eilPOl!l }'il! ,md COll1lLDlirI!:a.1iOD 'contom; wa.; jlirnlmnmed! and fed ioto !he Niltiomal AiJI:ll!ipheric Re::ea;>;! Ad\>isooy Center 0--lMtA Model to i&~J.ate It!: pEry;ical OImequ~e5 , Gc!E:equmo;,; vaJ}' b&;ed 1IpQ1I.E>'1llI:.Jltion.; · 'iKt!J] '1i\'heJ;e tDe po]lUlatiOIl is ,at tlu! tiIJ:~oftlu! attad I 01Ml!\';; , murk, mdooos"'i.o'!1LdOWj.). oc ·Ii\'!at me,1EOW,o,gj.cal OI[J.iUtions are a.;SUIlled. iI!Il.d ollibE PIlln:pt ver;;u; :f.l~DlIl mea; ofl!);, ~Il, 'Those a.;SUIllllti.OllS are das;;ifted and coi disru;;ed ie.ill;. ~per,

2

v.'cmng ~er: R & PatrEruf~ 1 HnmeIa:ld 8e::llrtty I " 12006 1 BOODn. ~ !lm..1.-SA-45 56,

Our foru;.llmra'a; primarily olll!De ecOll.ClmEt (0ll5I!1t'Il,erme; of a mldeiUT \\"ei!pOO iIttld;; the impart; 0:0 iID !WD ,m 5til.l1Ull.def iovestiga ' 110 iIDJI mu merit fw1tI:ler .resem-cb, 1,1; e!1pOIl cilwi!.cleri.;tiGi, iIl.dJ.JlmL;!l!.e t}p;! ofw&JIOlli. the qtJl!II.tifj" ofIOMerW. i1DlI hCIW the db-per,jon is atlliei'ed. prO'i.ti.de lI!.e boundary 'COlllfiti.OID for !l!.e reE.)l()J]5e in.cllldEng 001\" [D.1Jth area ' . impaaed iIllli wiha! ,action.; !lnd! ro,be taken to protect ID.mam heaili:h i!lld.the en\wl!lI:.,;nI, Theph)';.ir 't()J]52Itueor,e; ,ci:em;ed from W!;1JIDIl dwi!.c"eri.;tiG 'ra-ere lh£D med to ,tilkill!ll.le €cCO!looric. ClImequences m fi\1;! brood ca1egol!ie; of cost:

I . 1.o~; Clf !lrod'w:ti.Wy from eilDliDgs forgoo.e lD:lirKt eronomi.c meet:; or "li:1l..l'1iplier-

3. 1.05; amd damage ro,'buiJdiJ!;; ~ i1DrlI lbuiJJi:ing ClI~ 4. Dl;!coDt.a.n:.ll!Jltioni!lld.d:eCll!lllDi;5" !li.m!;ref:em!rl toa.;.deilJJll w;t 5. E\lilCiWltiolll ClIot • •

The;e ,erolla!I:k ClI!l2lqumces iIld"lllilI\g Ibe (a;1 iIDJI mne to d i!\lllup frolil tlu! eVi!!lt .m ru,ghl)' depmde!lt 4111 the 1nligp:i1Ude of ll!.e wa]lon e'I."elIl .illld do not ;ale m ,a WJeiUT wllion, The cOIl.5etl,"lLerme; of,a !llI.Clem- I!.eapoo iEtolllltOOo are e;lima1erll ro,!lave both s ',gnifitilDt 10;5 oJ 1D.mam .' e iIDJI 5!.lb.;laaItW cleilllllp iIDJI ret:On5trurtiOIl ClIsn;. A!Li;ll ~~ of outrig;b.l de5ttTnrtiOlll of !lropelily (OOilldicg;. !I11blicinfrastrutt'llIe. ,andpmihx:m..e ,tapia! equ.ipm.e!lt of all sorts) 'raill OCClDl" du.e ro, II!.e ,lIetOllJlli.oI!1. In@!tE&. the €cCOoomEt (O;t oJ W, t}p;! of.Lo;s. i5 jl.1;t IJ:e l410t !lrod1u:ti\~ of lbe capitiU (uJI:indiDg h1ll1lWJ -capital) d.e.;tro)"ed In it lOllIket eCllOOm)', iI is ,a .rea;OJIJIb!ei!.p!lrollfrmlltiOll to u:.;e mu!E,t '\'al1ll!S .a;; ,a 5UIJOg,ate for Ibe '\-arue of tl!i;; !Iroli.Urtion.

The ecOll.O . . aed iP5)'cbo:;ocia:l effeds of an RDD . 1W:k ' e ~d.ro, !be more sigcmrant IfIm Ibe po!mlW 10.is ofh=1ife am.dbu.il.dEn;g ~;trumoo [4]. lllllle evmt ODa radfoJogfcal db-per,j.OIl eveot. there is a set of'l!Conomic cowoquenc,e; @!ll.erMedas a re5!Jlt ali tl!.e ,evenl .illld ill Selof'I!COIlomic consequmceslDa.tisindepend=nl oftheJragni,1Udeohtilloologfca ~ becau;e ofpubJ.! ~o[J .about IJ:e q&> .a;socialeJI mth RD[);..

In order 10, dem"e 00!l2lqUf!ll(P- e;;tim~~, an ecooomic eva:.'rlilti41!l tilIN.onomy wa.; e; 'blisl!.ed 10 de!eI:nnin.e"\\tf:at jloteotia:! ur,;e'; amd Ci.eill!:!1p L. e.5 solllild!be EoVilrnateJI for !De fu'e lI!;oad. Gl%"'Ories of'l!Conomic consequf!ll(P-;"

The .respoJlae!; ro' mocleiUT weIl.J101l eveo1!; CiID "beiliou,gb.l of a.; pl!a;es: 1) tlu! initial erner~ocy [e.,-pon;e ,and evaruatillll" J IDe iniermediate Eo!5pOme wlim mo,t en:er;eocie; m\1;! be>.lI han~eJI and II!.e footl!l ;hl.,Fts to deilllll]l'. ,illld.l ) the deilllll]l' iPl!a;e "\\tlimlKO\-a:y i!lld. milll1Ip

'on; .m de~ "0 reli.U~e .r. 'on .1!1;"?js in order for Wid'buildEng; to be re-med or [~iDIllIbe!ed,

OurprilllaIY focu; is on jilis.;e 3. The deilllllJl' ClI;t for an aIeiI :i.5 Ilighl)' de]leodem on lI!.e deilJJll]l' ~ 1I1Sed. the deilIlllJl' rI!CIlnoLo~ =]1. 'ed. i1DrlIllie ndiologi.cal (i1nd o1h.er safet}') ClIoliXions underra'l!:th d&nup is oron.duti1ed, Decoll.1iIlIWw.tio!l ,effort; willind"lLde d eillliIL,; or SilDlibl&;ti!lg IDe menOI or ,eolI:Jl.eteJ.y ,lIemo!i5hing a!ferted buil.cItngi, safe!}' dispo~ of g.eol!r.1ted odiOilCJlive "\\raste. dec41ctudmling the 'emergenq' \'W ~; lI1SeJI iII the re;ponse aed

3

ViCrtng ~ R & p~ In HomeI1rId SecUI1tyI 2IXl6 1 Bo61XJr'1.~

PN:\1-SA-45 5~

retcwelJ process.. aDd =y olber aaivml!5. Th~e effOIti aIoJ:~ co:Ud cost billior.; of dolW:i .mil we decades 10 accompliih. dep!l:dmg 011 th! maFJde of !he ra.dJo.ogiai WeD! and the c.leamrJ> ~ eIr.p.O)'@d. BeCilU.ie 0: 0Ul' ilIIere;t in th! iu:parn of d.eamrp 1e\'e1; or.lhe co>!. we coO>tdered a nm.~e of pot!DDa d.emup le\'eli from eJilici:Jg 5llIIldard> ilIld protective action gu;deJioe.; that mi,gbI a.imlatel}' app 10 a temn:iit attack ~ ), lbi; [a:;;ocomy I\';li lIpJl:ied to all fu'e potential targm for Ih~ plIJlOse ofpro\~ a cOllieq1l!!llCe \'1I~OO melhodo OE)'. On scale ofmon coosen-.uin olern COO5en'iltin, th! En\'iIoDIJ:l!J:ta ProtecriOil Ageocy A) .iWllIani gO\~ C~ilIl1lp at sit6 v.ilh radioactWe contamination IeJRieD!S Ill! U:05t cOQ;er\'iltin .~ !ha[ we eva.J ll!d The Clll!I!.t 0 : d:ls pape! 'a'l\; [0 ;meiS che SemftMly. IlOl [0 de!mr.ine I\'h:ch clwmp suru.:Iard. is be;t,

Fi~lIn 1. C1eaoup Levels EvaJua::d fOI Ecooomi!: Comequence5

There are a 3rge 1!I.m100 of ecanomic .Wbl.e.i iliat could PO'enria.IlY be iI:.cluded iI: lhe caJcuLmoc of ilqlam, Th~e ilx.lude pi)uologil: iIqJaCli ilIld .o~term ;ocie1al iu:pilCl5 of lrvug w:.du end"Jru!.g beigtneoed ;eou!!}' co!!diOOD>. Our imem 1Ri to l!-wumfy lbo-X! elellll!DlS we beli£\'ed were mOil repre;emam-e of tbi.i tnle 0: emlrut Rack. A discu;,ioJ: of !hose fiw vmables rolJow.,

Loss of Proda, tmfy frOIll E.anWt~ F O~OIl!

To Ultula[1! !he Io;s of 1L'JlllaIl capita. in.g di.;cOUI!l fitaor of 7':; , wbich Ii th! OMS Bll! 0 li&01l!ll lV-tiIm ~ 10il aDd indus ";ocW faa 10 KCOUlII fllI !he OIher iocie1lllloi5e5 tlw re.-ull froc prem.mIre deltb. E aIlle. Ihe mm:lJer of affected wari;u; Ii lied o !he geogJapbic > e of the a'eD!,

V,'crII[ng Toge:net: R & P~p; I HOO1E!laml8e::lJ1fty I Joplll 2006 I BOODn. ~ !IN!\1.AiA-45 56,

mdir,ed Economic I.ffeds 'Dr "MIiliiJl~r"

Th&l!Qill be ":imtirecf ' ec01l.l1l:niC Empilro ,a;:;odal~ with fit,;, cOOl5eltlll!OOe; of iIIll1lC.ell!" or IaidioJo,,: ell iIItt~ck . For eNiIIllple. ':um:g!h.e d.emCliJlIWIamoo proce;5., blilldiJlE:5 ic the alEcr.e.i iIll!aQ'ooi!d IllItbe fi.mdioccll. !:le;idem;:Q'OOIJd 114\,= 00' be relocate:!. Bu;me;;e;, v;~dlillwe [0 do the same or simp .. h.a1t thee: .acti\. fit,;, I1!e;io:rutl ilDlIlllllioccll ecOllllIDY coUld 'be oeg;a.livejy impacte:i."t re5!l!till.g ~e in Ifle lIl"!!a', I1!! e;tate pIke; , .ouru.m. ilDdI commen::ial tL;ms~ctions couldl Mve lDng'tem:J Il.e~\'e effero on Ib.e .ar~' ; ecOllllIDy.

Th&l! are ;e\'eru !!COMmie method);Q'hereu)' -cvillipli.ecs" are applied to, fit,;, ,e;:tiJDarui di.recr com .ost :iIu:0lI:::) 00' e".iticmlE the :illli.'irecllKollm iIJ:.pa()!,. The;e 1.1irluP..; u:ay be e,1iLruJ.[~ 00 If!: bil;:, ofinfoma ·co abOltt the catnlr!! of lf!: .ilfffecl~ lillii!!.e;se5 :in !h.e r:;ponse .ara ThI! in.:fuKt :i.JqJaCl; v; be ge,rif Ifle CJaJ!liet;. for directly ,ilifmed secIIU".i. are beyond, the locell ecoODmi.C arilil. In e".iSeIl.Ce, these sec:to.rs are -~' driveo, If these settlir5 .are oolOllgH al!1Yo!o'~ to, operate, theo the implct5Qill be ;e\ 'ere becau;e ;upJlDllIm;; bu:iines;e; in Ifle !oeal iIll!aQill be forced 10 ;cal!! bad. 1;); e deriJ.Ted mlll.1!j!!iH".i. from fit,;, FR.!3.l'Y '!Ill 1 m.dy [5] a.;. fofuws:

• lAiw impa.cr 5~emrio (10 ~Ci 5·13 RDD, .aIld II. iT IIJJdSl! m;ap:>1l) - 46% oflo >! eami:ng;

• Hi~ impact ;cenmD (BltT;md 1001 IlUdeu Wo:ap11Il) - 82% of.lo;t~;

Dffo'lIta.minfiOll :md Demlllllllissillllillg or OJUIIIIJI Cost

CleilJlllp' iIllII I1!;,toration 0:buildm:,;5 ,aIld aIld afur RlI ' •. w: e\o--eJJt will be c.omqilitated Iby the need '0 decoll1arnmalE ~nrl!. PIKI!IlIBIl • ,den: !i.;lI rali1olog;iL~i!l)' co1!laminal~ buil.ii.Iogs ilDm liIDdi. Th~ c.o~ oi !hi. ci.eamJ.p' v; be ItigbJy d.epen.derrt 00 !he iIll!eIl e~mt or eamIp. v;m.icb. ill 1ImI. is higbJy d.epl!lldem 00.!h.e If\'el of e1eimup' require:!. Th.e cost of deilDllp oJ iID:f gffi!ll area will ile d.epl!lldi!ct 00 the!!!lalive L~ oJ 1!C0000mir d;,.e~llI.eIlt« f=dal m\'e,:tI!l.ent IIlat has be£!] Illild~ ill Ifl~ lIl"!!iII of,concem, Th~ approa.cb tdm ill Ibis stud:YQ'a; 1:0 d~OJl' mril co~ :fa.ctor;; ($'lim') for the deilDllP' oJ iII'e\l,c; having dm&l!ct le\",1s oipopuliltioll deJEity; pllplIDi1Iion d.enmy being llied. as ,a 51m.ogate for ,economic. ' ctil.ity. .eilI!.1!p 0[0.;1 da1a. p!Uml!l"il)' o[ iIllJ.e from itril"rlJisource.;:

• Th.e eooomtic. IJ:.(Idel provid;,m ill; a 'cOIJ:.piIDioll to, the FL.WTRAN 5 co:mp1l!".Ip!'o§;u1Iu ,dwe::oped :or ,mM)'··s oftb~ COllil!queLloe, .ilI!.-d ri;;k~ ofradioatti\,= I!Illlle:rtlil ~on (5ee bnp:{fttd.silI!.dia . go\\~!i!.kIradlrm.l!rm) . [6] 1'hl; ecooo:u:.i.c IJ:.(Id;il was Milly dwe,.'oped! to, estimJJle !h.e ecooo:u:.i.c coo;equenc:es offplutonillID-IfupeF5e1l .accid.;,nt;. Th.e FR1!NY stady of If!: ecQI!.Omi.c ,e!fecl. of If!: 9l!ll:eJ!I'Offil .atta.c1: OIl Nell' Y ook Ity. "j{Q!llrni1lg lilt; F,ff«lHd'lk~ !jqptmJlbu 11 Amrc.bm N"", I'w:i1 , . • [5J.

RIIDl'RA!1 . 5' , eOOlJl.ilci.oll erOllomk IJ:(Idel ict11Lde.> e;tiu:ated UJili eosts (S,ilI;m") for: en:~enq' ,acl:i.olli (e!! i!pp~ fixatiw,; ) fo!low:il!.,g fit,;, '1!!.--enI; iIIC!~e;s c0Il1I'Ol (e.g .. ,g:wa:d5) 0 !1['e,'I'l!Ilt una1lihori:zed iICOI!3!i [0 Ifle COIl1:imJ£na[ed! .areas; 1ildio.1lIgial C!IwilCJ~tfDn.; dec.olltalllina.liOIl'demJOlmoc op2!ilmoc;; ilDli ,Ii1;;po. oli ndiOloe;iciilly cOll1il.!:n.iru!.lEd wa.; le. The;e ,e1e,:u:.~ v;rece 5!.I1!1ID1ed lDgetb.er 10 oiJtaic the, tOllll co~ o · CJ:eilI!.1!p .aIld sill! r:;lDranoc.

5

RJ/Dl'RAJl " 5 '\~. th~ co;1!i 'c!e]lelll!:ing Oil wlie!h.;,r 'IDe area i;.lIIl UIban iII'ea tIllt i..;. !igh~ly colJllUJ:.inated, lLodemel)' (OJLImIinalell. or havil)' cOlltullmafi!!l or wiu!1he!" /be areilis fium or range !md. T!h.e mW ,e03!' from 'IDe !!LOllllmfr 1IlO1IPJ. a>sumiI!.g 1I::I5ile dispo5!l ofBdioo.Cilive \\~. ,a!'e~inTa:b"e ! .

Tablel. S= "of Unit Co;1!i for D& . BlIi!!m!!'llBo~t. and. EviliClllafi.olDValua "on MiD

tim,Co .. PHbit'

AJ-1I'Ea.1 Ib Cl:ll1bmir.d:il tn:ZI h.aM~" ~lZI ~urk:albn.so EIJ~,2

=- A]-11 I"" III mca _, F21::z::a C'Jaramnalcd Uri:.:. pe.d::r1ft .. SO~I2\nI':l .m:a.l r.::a rh.D 3J)XI

iJEilflCllnJ':I .a:z:d " . OF pCIIII::rduII'11 011a tranoJid:: lb ll1l::ftI.IgroJ ~~ Th is Ic:w:II ~ ~lUUtioa &:l lTa:dL r.J. ' l::¥C:wa.aI.Zl.&)

a.u::aJ 'f1cpUfaty .-.d LC. ItADliRAN' .!i ......... 'i.&.d ~ nab IiId .... Orn . .. . td Ilftlduftl:an ·ok...t1Wd .-, ...", ..... 100 .....

TIle LIrbi1.n ill"ea UMn 'L\tfricb the R.Wl'R.i\N 5 !!LOIlOmOC I!!lwl derives i1!i un.Ft deiullm (0;1!i i;. into (OI!5id!!ratiol!!, Ibis FRBNY mta \\1;15 u;ed to dem"e 'lD1! UIrit deilJlup cost; for the hi~ a.nrl! ""eI)' hi~ O>-I!5i Wbanim!a>~rtedlin Tab_e I .

HIIID2Ia:1~ SEWnty I Pj:l1 12006 1 EICIGIlIn. ~ ~"I.-SA-45 5(;,

Loss ;lD.d Da:lII!Ige 10 llaiHillg Sl[ll~.

The (o;ii; to .replace ,i\D.ed 011 the in.di. -lfulili;o.top:c balf-live5. the moil '~erge!ic (i\D.d lI:.ost diIOgeIou;) de.::l!)1ng :in DII11l!i or ,clays willie loll~~\'ed!is01OJles pmi;t for lI:.octfl5 and.J em. The ,close Iille from faI!01I! ~p.;. iI}' II faotor of 1.000 4:£ hours. aftEr deOO!l.ation. and 0= '!Ioil '~ of the d,l)ie isIl!c~diIllbe fu;tJeari1funll1JdeuweapollJ~ [ , This oose .rupoc;eli:!I:e after detooati.on is ilqIortaJIt when ,estmaatill,g Ihe ,Qool ofdemup. ;ire Il!S1OIl1tion. ,i\D.jj. rebui!d a'~r ,a RardlN'!L( went Fig;are 2 illu:; - bO; thi; 1:1)' showing IIeLrnd iIIl!il [e~ deilOUp' fur differeIII c1ell!ruP' critoo..J:ia (J,e~I!1li1lIJ.'o5 e me;) fl!!' dilfferertt Ifn:.~ peTioli,; ful101lTin,g dftCllDtfon of i1 1];·k,], IlUdear W&]I01lL _'!J.; sD01IIll, the ;uruc.e i!J:ea .requlring dElilllllp de.::1:eaiie5 by fllroor of 10 to, 100 during 1be sl!tond year fuM TililIf; detom1ioe ,ilS ,ron:.]lilre

I'ltmlg 0!je7lel: R & PaJ1Il".J1;tq:6 1 Hameia'ld Serutty I ~1 2005 1 1lO61Dn, ~ Pm.1.-SA45 ;~

001 01 Ie ' 00

FJt1In _>\rea Requiri~ ~at:on for Differ!ll.1 arr.lp Cri~

d.etooatiOll S~e cle!IWj) vro1l.!d likely 1:0 be cOlqI_eted duricg the fir51 year foUowmg d.etooatiOll tbi; analy>i:; estimarcd me ~031 of c.;eml"lp of thai LInd iU'e>l remaioi.ng cOlllmlina ed

'DOW !he =1Ip criteria 'eM ilfter delo t:on.

In the ase of the RDD e\'!ll.1. how!\'K, lmle radiO!ctWi' d~y II occur cIw:ing the 1iII:.e pmod ofll!ll:.ed:iatian (firstyear« 19.0), For ihisreasoo. 1b! CO;I of cl~of an RD e\'!ll.1 'as ased 00 the laod ~CIllWJ:ioated by fiillCTJl 0Ire! me 1m1 year foUowmg tile !\'eIIl.

We !bell look tile pby;K.lll'lume contour:; f« each of me chre£ 1IIl&.ar We1jKlt: )' elds md me .fi\'e c.;eat::Ip lenJs and plooM tho;e in the fu'e w,get loGluon; FtgUf! 3 males ChIs coocept wub the plume l-_}T COlllO'UC for !be lOO-kTauclearW!i1pOll m Nea' 'on. , NY, aDd

Ysidro. c.~,

Figure 3, Hypothetical J1Jmu ContOur. for l()().1T ilDli 5 Qe.mul' ~

The plume COILTl7JfS used represl!ll.l a gEllm~ "wiD:! COD ' rion. - C,earl '. wu:d coMiI:oos impact the radioactin fallou1 a.fi!r a Cl~....lf ll'i'apOIL I!\'alI and me abiliry to \ e damag!! de:pEOd; OIL where the lLlma,ge occur;_ The p~ in NI!' ' Yolk C ty blow; illlo tile Adantic Ocean: although not depic1ed h..re, tl:.e phm:;e for Detroit soe; c:£o Cauda and l..ake Erie, For tbi; higb-~\'el

8

vtcmng oge~ R & P~p; I H~II5e::lJJtty I "'~1 2000 IIIDIimI1. ~ Pm\1.,-SA-45 56,

ana2ysi;. our dm!a~ ,m e5;JL=n.I i; lilI:iIed to the co!lliI!.enal UDilM States aDd [e]l£!"".>I!Il.15 mrume i1Iei d e;urup ,el:l:~ gID1IIl.d,nteJ ,cOIIlalI:ll!atiooL

TheresWt;, oi' our ,1IIl>!ilysi; iII,e mown iII Fi~ 4. A; .m ' ip~te.i. 1be e:olOO ' COll5el[n.eoDe; are hi~"1 for 1be ilIY'..i1 I!.uCJ:eIl1"·" .. e;lJl'Oc }~~ amd !h.e n:D>I (OIE"JVil.tiVl! cl!!amlp L. l. Nev.r YoIi ", ' I!.eE the !Ji.gj);,lii e:OIlOmi dmlJIge .moos the deilllllJl' 5pi!druI!!l. be:all.."!! ofn5 ,rieme popu1a ' C acdhigb ,,'al:nE ,rea1e,;tate. Ko!e that !he 'I!toncmi.::. coc.;eqtP.JlC.e; for 'ewYolik C-aaOSi .WI:051 eve£)' mm1Ip le\l1 !Ilel!' eC[lP.JlC.es by 1be :f!w hnlad ,r,a-egorie; eva:iua1l!d ThiHl!pn.;enJiltfon dl!lllol!5tti1tes tlW : :i; 1be mamlp c.o lii (or ( OSI) tlWi; fue m,§;e. t indivMilill conlritrnlOI to e:Oll.omic COll5l!1[uelJDe; acmss the dei1llllp eT;el sp:drum 1lD.1il we read! IDe .• ait cOJUm'm.~ d e;urup level. ill wlOCl! poiot 1be .OS5 of. · 'e ' , 1be III"geSI d e;urup coot

In iIle use ohc RDD. the il'lIe 0: call1illlW!ali.llc 'c!eJIecd:.; cmI)' on iIle ;aur,c'e maternJ{s) (co IllJtleiII prOCe5; is m\'ohied). and me '~"fl!!I! of C0Il1illlW!a . C depEnd:.; 00 the physical foml oi !h.e SOlll"CP- ,md!he ,meCO\'fIle.;.S of the. di.;:per,allll.edJacisJllE. 'I1l.e ult:i!ruJ.te :lilte o·li!h.e cOllt1Jl:ication (iIll.d. Crus 101l.,g·D;:mt cOll5l!1[uelJr,e.) i; depenclfllt Oll .a c.omp!!::. dlainof tral!s];Ort.lIJ.li!ilkP-. ~;l1Ie. acrll ImLI!diatioo pIllces;e;, Ri!l101I.l frolll. ac RDD ,e~llltio:m would be vel)" different frollllbat oh 1l.1lJ ell1"weilpllc lietomli.llc baocau;e !here would ~ 00' large thmml cloud 00' :iJ:!je:1 II);, Iildioarn\'e material into the tmo;phere. acdl 1be iIlLOIllll ofIildioarn\\;! material 'r;\'01!M e n:.udl.ess than that gfller.ated iII ~ llUa ell1" T,! .. eapoc e\'fIlt. A ~- .a;'3!!~lJleni of1be ea!con:ic coc;equeru::es oh 10 kG "·1.3 lWin :ew Yolik C- ' j; jlre5f1l1l!din Fig1nre 9,

10

13,0011

tr1,OOO · " L: iii 11.!1011 ~ It. DOII

12,000

~Se::urtty l ~1 2005 1 11061Dn, ~

~-SA-45 54

-- DdrOlt __ l", .. lRe

~ Ch.Jloh CO

....... tl_Y.t~

t 5 "''''tn/yr 100 "'rtlm¥ 500 tftIWrIIyr ] 0 "'m¥ Cloonup SI...,t»nl

r~n!'. Th~ O. -krw poII E\'i!ll.l

; i

DttIroil llk~

Ctw1eROI1

Ne YOfII

SonV$Id,c

15 mr ... ~ 1011 m,omJYr 5DOmrom'yf 1.0 rOflllYr Cleanup St .. nct.ord

fi~lIn 6. Thl! 13-kT We pon E\'alI

n~ _

120.-

l5,.GOO

I OOmre""1'

ctM!

2005 1 B06IDn. ~ Pl'l~-SA-45~56

m~ r---~~--------------------~~~~====~

~120~ .!!. 'ti~

~ .'D~ 8 16~

III I'-"""T"'.,....cr

(;lea P StanliJrd

Fi;:urt 8. SUlmD.iU)" by Fi\'e C egarie; E\..wated

ere i. ~. 1:0 Io;s of life llilb the ;. 3 evet:t. ut me c.:em1lp co:;t m:I 1M (0:; to rebuild a!:d,or reJI ace bui1~. is cm.ce gait: sjgDiflGUlI. pmicularly for me moil (omervam.--e sWldard (on.e-half oflbe am!Ilal U.S. GOP).

1I.'attIlg 0f}e11er: Ii: & pa1nefEt{~ I Hame'IiJ:llI S€aJ1fty I }o1='11 2005 1 EIIlSDn. ~ PNl\1.,-SA-45 56,

SI .... Ei-====~~~ ~i40 ~ $UfO ~ Sl,i40 0; !ttf6 li S!,* 8 n,m

5 1~ 151.--P ~~--~--~~~--L--r--~==~--~--------~--------~

i lliii mnmJr?i ,'''' mre.,."., C I~~ St~

s·13 IlBtOMlioD :in Ne'il' Yon! Cit}.

co.. CLUSro~S

The methoc!o'log}· ~~ed in Ibis Pi!pe! pnl\'ide; a :ifriu:nI!,'i\'DB for eva:.1ua1ing the lI:ll!ior C.o;t coDIpOll!!nts fol!D1\1i.n;s a IlIldei1Ir 1\;e!I,.1IIm event. 'J'h.e,re ,m several ob~on..; tMt can be Dlilde fromlDeruult; 1h1l.'l :fill:

. ' 'Th,e ecJOOl)]r.k COlEl!qI1&Ce5 01" a Radl'NlI.c eveDt i!.IE! l!:igM. ,d£p!I!.Mm OD and do".~)· wl1pled II) the eilIJ.1!p l.eve 5o>..lEdJ!d

. ' C._ilIJ.lIp 'co;l; ,geomilly int:reil5e drlm!i!ti.ca!ly fur stmIiar.c); more 5IJ:ingent 1bm 5110 mrem.";l: .

• ' C _ilIJ.lIp to, me II1II>1: cOll5eI1;'aliVl! sr.udmll evaluated (15, Iml!Dlo . . ) DIlIguifies me I!CollOmiC ,conseI[1I.!I!.Ce; oflb;, E\'!I!.t im!;pe.::nVl! 0'1" the w; oflilIE;!I or weajlQJl. ~ld .

• ' BeG1me ;1lCf! ,aD 'H'eI!I couldl potenItilly spread COll1alJ1.ina . OO\'ery 1IriJf,>~)'. e!Vl!!l ,aIh '1!1.-eIll in ''remo1:e~ lo~atio:n could ~ hnge ,&o:nomic 'comequen.ce;.

• A rut·based ,approach to me de\'~pn:!I!.t anJ! ,application of 5 ilIJ.dmls is Jl.~d:ed. Thm are no natfOlLlll1lllllWds for a~ceptible ifecoll1alJ1.ina . 00 o~ iI. radio.o!!i.cal 1\;eapon eVl!DI. and the ~A SIlIIlriluds 1lied 'Undl!r CERCUI. were ,~ed to addri!;s groi\T~ COIlc:ems ,aoout IDe n.eed 10, dean up ootontrolled. abwJJio!led baziudD1I.'l wiltile site, all.d 10 ,alilires.; future raeilties of 1!iuMdo1l.'l 51ib;tiIIl.ce; into the eIl\!iMnJr.~ . Q&lIl1p a!fb!Jr ,a 1;I',;,1IpOIll ~ mcIl. iI.S one oflbose descri:bedin fuis p.ijll!l!' 1\ be ~tl)' differem from me dea.n.up, of ill ,eont.mIinMed iDdJJ;trW facili;y or fom::r weajlOlli prodJXtfon fadiliIy. The stilll.dml ;elecled will impact th me co:.1: and the !liI.Ce oflDe CJ:eilIJ.lIp. Pci!iq' .1!1.-e1 a1tell.ti.on lo C!:eilIJ.lIp ,1lIndard5is Wiln:i1D1ed.

,.~:CKNOl\iI.1IDG'MiEl rrs The iIlltbor,;, \\ II lfte to aCknowledge the do:;e COlIJlI!l!'il.ti ,iI.Ild /he valw;b.e comments iI.!lJi su.~e.>tro!l> !lromed )' the othl!!!' Ir;~mb.L; of me Radio1ogir COUDteIm rum Sy';Iem; Alla1y-,js Wolting G!0LIJI'. i1> WJ>Jl ,ilS ;.i[mi]Mily va:.1w.b._ iIIplII from olbl!r staiff,aoo ~eIIlmt ' Padfu Nomfm;l:>1: N lion!!. La:bm:atory ). The R.il.di([logi.cal CIl1IllD"....D!Ill!asnre!i SFIl!DlS Arw)'>is 'i\ omng 'GToLIJI' iIlCludes Lar;n ,!I!.ce Livem::«,;, N lion!!. Ubm:al0ry (]LNL).

vrcmng 0!Jl8 er: R & P~p; I HOOI2I3nIl S€aJrIty I Joj:fl l 2006 I BIlelIln,. ~ Pm-.1.-SA-45 56,

Lo; am!l):;. ' ·!tio:nal Laooruooy (L.l\NL), San.dfa NiIliCIW Libet" tooy ), and P}."NL, Th2 '1Ilho:r; wollld lillie 00' ad;DD];\~e !he Sdence and edJoDlD~' Dire:! Of; tJ D~anmmt 0:-

HomEW!.d Seruri . for ;JIDll5DriD.g iIle ;,tud)'.

REFERE..~CE.s

[I] Dl!!oonh Elrod.. Gla~ . .'t. Klemi.c. lIoo Anibal T(lb:ias. "R .. ta.b!i5ltiIlg Remed.'iaDOll Le,\'d; m lU!';JKXD5e [0 a Rildiol(lE;i.cal EvenI (o! 'DUty Bom'b'V E.nuOlII'!I rat S~1!'C1I5 &' T~( IIIlQli!IfJ'. 'Vol 38, . '0. 9. 004.

[ ] United S!ab>~ G1!neral Acccnmting Office.. "Ra.diati.on StmdMtf;. Scien1ific Balli Incon.du;av; an.d EP.;\ mi NR! Di~~enl CollliIrue; .~ JI.III.e 20M.

[3] s- 1Jemenl ofRDben 'G. ard. UDli:er Secreti!IY. ilDtI Jesti.e 1:1. ROber>llD, A ;si.;taiIII SemWy fur ED1.IironmeoIlll M.am;;1!1lIlm U . ep!JibIlmt ofEbl!I'gy. Hau:;e S'llbro~ 00. Str.l!egk Forces omm..rtte!! OIlJ.Al!Ined SenOOi!i. blIpJ. m'\\'.ener~. g(l',7l'engin.ei'coJl1mt_do?PUBlJI ._ID~B/li., 1996.

[ Gla;;1DJle" Sill!l1I!".l and PDilip . DolaD, "'1b: Elf&!:; 0'1 ~udeiU' WI!i!pOll5.," ·n.ited State;, Dl!o..1IMtD:eJlt off Deffllie and the EDergy i!.e;eiIrcb ilDtI D .. ve. PllIleJlt AlilI:.ioistta. ' DD, 19

B