executive popularity in france: the promise and pitfalls of time series data research and methods...
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Executive Popularity in France: The Promise and Pitfalls of Time
Series Data Research and Methods
Symposium, October 1st 2004
The problems
The substantive problem: how do macroeconomic conditions affect support for the dual executive (president and prime minister) in France?
The methodological problem: What techniques are best suited to modeling time-
series data?Do any of these models have a reliable predictive
component (forecasting)
Some hypothetical data series
Stationary series
Y(t) = α, where the estimated constant α is the sample mean
Linear trend
Y(t) = α + β(t), where α is the intercept and β the slope of the trend line
“Random walk”
Y(t) = Y(t-1) + α, where α is the mean of the first difference (i.e. average change from one period to the next)
France: Executive Popularity
France: the dual executive
In de Gaulle’s formulation, the president has responsibility for ‘high politics’, while the prime minister is responsible for ‘day to day affairs’
The president is directly elected (since 1965), for a five year term (since 2002, seven years previously)
The president appoints the prime minister, who is ‘responsible’ to parliament
The president has no constitutional authority to fire the prime minister, but has acquired the de facto capacity to do this
The president may dismiss the national assembly and call for new elections (no more than once a year)
The possibility exists that the president and prime minister may be drawn from different ideological camps (cohabitation)
Cohabitation has occurred three times: 1986-88 (Mitterrand/Chirac), 1993-5 (Mitterrand/Balladur), and 1997-2002 (Chirac/Jospin).
Executive popularity in France
• Lewis-Beck (1980) finds that Prime Ministers suffer a greater decline in popularity than Presidents due to negative effects of inflation and unemployment
• Hibbs (1981) finds negative effects of unemployment on presidential approval (but positive effect of inflation!)
• Appleton (1986) finds negative relationship between unemployment and both presidential and prime ministerial approval, but no inflation effect
• Anderson (1995) suggests that the relationship is more complex, and depends upon the ideological placement of the prime minister vis a vis the president
• Lecaillon (1980) finds no impact of macroeconomic variables on executive popularity
• Anonymous (2004) finds that: presidential approval linked to unemployment, prime ministerial approval suffers from higher inflation, and that presidential popularity rises during cohabitation
Executive Popularity Indicators in France
IFOP (Since 1958, aperiodic until 1968, then monthly):“Are you satisfied with [name] as [President, Prime Minister] of France?”
June 2004: Chirac 45%Raffarin 32%
SOFRES (Since 1978):“How reliable do you think [name] is in dealing with France’s current problems?”(1974-78):“How effective do you think [name] is in dealing with France’s current
problems?”
June 2004 Chirac 35%Raffarin 28%
Also BULL-BVA series (1982-1990’s)
Presidential Popularity in France, 1978-2004Source: SOFRES
Date
02/01/2004
10/01/2002
06/01/2001
02/01/2000
10/01/1998
06/01/1997
02/01/1996
10/01/1994
06/01/1993
02/01/1992
10/01/1990
06/01/1989
02/01/1988
10/01/1986
06/01/1985
02/01/1984
10/01/1982
06/01/1981
02/01/1980
10/01/1978
Pre
sid
en
t Y
es
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
MitterrandChirac
Gis
card
d’E
stai
ng
Prime Ministerial Popularity in France, 1978-2004Source: SOFRES
Date
PM
Ye
s
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
1. Barre
2. Mauroy
3. Fabius
4. Chirac
5. Rocard
6. Cresson
7. Bérégovoy
8. Balladur
9. Juppé
10.Jospin
11.Raffarin
1 2 43
10
119
8
76
5
Executive Popularity in France, 1978-2004Source: SOFRES
Date
Va
lue
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
President Yes
PM Yes
Executive Popularity in France – Giscard d’Estaing
Source: SOFRES
Date
04/01/1981
02/01/1981
12/01/1980
10/01/1980
08/01/1980
06/01/1980
04/01/1980
02/01/1980
12/01/1979
10/01/1979
08/01/1979
06/01/1979
04/01/1979
02/01/1979
12/01/1978
10/01/1978
70
60
50
40
30
20
President Yes
PM Yes
Executive Popularity in France – MitterrandSource: SOFRES
Date
12/01/1994
03/01/1994
06/01/1993
09/01/1992
12/01/1991
03/01/1991
06/01/1990
09/01/1989
12/01/1988
03/01/1988
06/01/1987
09/01/1986
12/01/1985
03/01/1985
06/01/1984
09/01/1983
12/01/1982
03/01/1982
06/01/1981
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
President Yes
PM Yes
Chi
rac
Bal
ladu
r
Executive Popularity in France – ChiracSource: SOFRES
Date
06/01/2004
12/01/2003
06/01/2003
12/01/2002
06/01/2002
12/01/2001
06/01/2001
12/01/2000
06/01/2000
12/01/1999
06/01/1999
12/01/1998
06/01/1998
12/01/1997
06/01/1997
12/01/1996
06/01/1996
12/01/1995
06/01/1995
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
President Yes
PM Yes
Jospin
Relating executive popularity to macroeconomic conditions
Inflation and Unemployment in France, 1978-2004Source: INSEE
Date
02/01/2004
10/01/2002
06/01/2001
02/01/2000
10/01/1998
06/01/1997
02/01/1996
10/01/1994
06/01/1993
02/01/1992
10/01/1990
06/01/1989
02/01/1988
10/01/1986
06/01/1985
02/01/1984
10/01/1982
06/01/1981
02/01/1980
10/01/1978
30
20
10
0
-10
Inflation
Unemployment
Gis
card
Mitterrand Chirac
Bivariate correlations of presidential and prime ministerial popularity, inflation, and unemployment
Correlations
1 .404** .211** -.388**
. .000 .000 .000
311 308 292 299
.404** 1 -.293** .201**
.000 . .000 .001
308 308 289 296
.211** -.293** 1 -.652**
.000 .000 . .000
292 289 292 282
-.388** .201** -.652** 1
.000 .001 .000 .
299 296 282 300
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
President Yes
PM Yes
Inflation
Unemployment
President Yes PM Yes InflationUnemplo
yment
Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).**.
Simple OLS predicting presidential popularity
Model Summary
.458a .210 .199 7.979Model1
R R SquareAdjustedR Square
Std. Error ofthe Estimate
Predictors: (Constant), Unemployment, Mitterrand,Inflation, Chirac
a.
Coefficientsa
74.613 4.272 17.464 .000
8.624 2.327 .476 3.706 .000
9.919 2.641 .523 3.756 .000
-.094 .140 -.050 -.667 .505
-3.424 .438 -.617 -7.825 .000
(Constant)
Mitterrand
Chirac
Inflation
Unemployment
Model1
B Std. Error
UnstandardizedCoefficients
Beta
StandardizedCoefficients
t Sig.
Dependent Variable: President Yesa.
Extended OLS predicting presidential popularity
Coefficientsa
68.351 4.070 16.793 .000
-.696 2.106 -.038 -.331 .741
-5.685 2.627 -.300 -2.164 .031
-.341 .127 -.183 -2.681 .008
-2.974 .372 -.538 -7.988 .000
.365 .038 .508 9.663 .000
-.079 .012 -.394 -6.686 .000
2.511 1.021 .138 2.459 .015
(Constant)
Mitterrand
Chirac
Inflation
Unemployment
PM Yes
Time in Office (President)
Cohabitation
Model1
B Std. Error
UnstandardizedCoefficients
Beta
StandardizedCoefficients
t Sig.
Dependent Variable: President Yesa.
Model Summary
.697a .486 .473 6.475Model1
R R SquareAdjustedR Square
Std. Error ofthe Estimate
Predictors: (Constant), Cohabitation, Time in Office(President), Unemployment, PM Yes, Mitterrand,Inflation, Chirac
a.
Extended OLS predicting presidential popularity with lagged dependent variable as
predictorModel Summary
.919a .844 .840 3.514Model1
R R SquareAdjustedR Square
Std. Error ofthe Estimate
Predictors: (Constant), President Yes lagged,Cohabitation, Mitterrand, Inflation, Time in Office(President), PM Yes, Unemployment, Chirac
a.
Coefficientsa
13.117 3.122 4.202 .000
-1.308 1.149 -.073 -1.138 .256
-2.945 1.432 -.158 -2.056 .041
-.137 .070 -.074 -1.963 .051
-.525 .226 -.096 -2.326 .021
.108 .023 .151 4.686 .000
-.021 .007 -.103 -3.004 .003
.889 .563 .050 1.579 .116
.794 .031 .805 25.246 .000
(Constant)
Mitterrand
Chirac
Inflation
Unemployment
PM Yes
Time in Office (President)
Cohabitation
President Yes lagged
Model1
B Std. Error
UnstandardizedCoefficients
Beta
StandardizedCoefficients
t Sig.
Dependent Variable: President Yesa.
Alternative extended OLS predicting presidential popularity with lagged dependent variable as
predictor
Coefficientsa
16.909 3.885 4.353 .000
.782 .570 .044 1.371 .171
-.748 .729 -.027 -1.026 .306
.791 .032 .804 24.774 .000
-.030 .008 -.153 -3.897 .000
-2.261 1.327 -.126 -1.704 .090
-4.709 1.715 -.254 -2.745 .006
.119 .023 .166 5.072 .000
-.679 .245 -.119 -2.773 .006
-.323 .107 -.152 -3.021 .003
(Constant)
Cohabitation
Post-election
President Yes lagged
Time in Office (President)
Mitterrand
Chirac
PM Yes
PMA(UNEMPLOY,3)
PMA(INFLAT,3)
Model1
B Std. Error
UnstandardizedCoefficients
Beta
StandardizedCoefficients
t Sig.
Dependent Variable: President Yesa.
Model Summary
.921 .848 .843 3.480Model1
R R SquareAdjustedR Square
Std. Error ofthe Estimate
Extended OLS predicting prime ministerial popularity with lagged dependent variable as predictor
Coefficientsa
29.199 5.282 5.528 .000
.155 .074 .060 2.088 .038
-3.553 .460 -.464 -7.722 .000
.508 .048 .364 10.674 .000
.221 .035 .219 6.282 .000
-.413 .032 -.447 -13.040 .000
15.567 1.413 .428 11.020 .000
29.161 2.170 .580 13.438 .000
19.828 2.238 .459 8.858 .000
26.562 2.129 .704 12.475 .000
10.758 1.843 .177 5.838 .000
30.285 2.304 .478 13.147 .000
44.613 2.955 1.050 15.098 .000
24.909 2.563 .566 9.718 .000
40.557 2.687 1.349 15.096 .000
25.238 2.120 .341 11.902 .000
(Constant)
Inflation
Unemployment
President Yes
PM Yes lagged
Time in office (PM)
Mauroy
Fabius
Chirac (PM)
Rocard
Cresson
Beregovoy
Balladur
Juppe
Jospin
Raffarin
Model1
B Std. Error
UnstandardizedCoefficients
Beta
StandardizedCoefficients
t Sig.
Dependent Variable: PM Yesa.
Model Summary
.961 .923 .918 3.548Model1
R R SquareAdjustedR Square
Std. Error ofthe Estimate
Alternative extended OLS predicting prime ministerial popularity with lagged dependent variable as predictor
Coefficientsa
40.486 5.889 6.875 .000
-4.467 .482 -.558 -9.262 .000
-.010 .123 -.004 -.085 .932
.513 .045 .370 11.346 .000
-.472 .033 -.516 -14.311 .000
.200 .034 .199 5.910 .000
14.785 1.369 .411 10.803 .000
29.287 2.116 .591 13.841 .000
20.088 2.204 .471 9.114 .000
26.626 2.120 .714 12.558 .000
8.985 1.913 .150 4.696 .000
29.333 2.290 .469 12.808 .000
46.180 2.854 1.102 16.180 .000
25.764 2.472 .593 10.421 .000
42.138 2.649 1.417 15.905 .000
22.987 2.184 .334 10.527 .000
(Constant)
PMA(UNEMPLOY,3)
PMA(INFLAT,3)
President Yes
Time in office (PM)
PM Yes lagged
Mauroy
Fabius
Chirac (PM)
Rocard
Cresson
Beregovoy
Balladur
Juppe
Jospin
Raffarin
Model1
B Std. Error
UnstandardizedCoefficients
Beta
StandardizedCoefficients
t Sig.
Dependent Variable: PM Yesa.
Model Summary
.964 .929 .925 3.388Model1
R R SquareAdjustedR Square
Std. Error ofthe Estimate
Predicted versus actual values from extended OLS model of presidential popularity
Date
02/01/2004
10/01/2002
06/01/2001
02/01/2000
10/01/1998
06/01/1997
02/01/1996
10/01/1994
06/01/1993
02/01/1992
10/01/1990
06/01/1989
02/01/1988
10/01/1986
06/01/1985
02/01/1984
10/01/1982
06/01/1981
02/01/1980
10/01/1978
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
ARIMA predicted
OLS predicted
Predicted versus actual values from extended OLS model of presidential popularity (Giscard)
Date
04/01/1981
02/01/1981
12/01/1980
10/01/1980
08/01/1980
06/01/1980
04/01/1980
02/01/1980
12/01/1979
10/01/1979
08/01/1979
06/01/1979
04/01/1979
02/01/1979
12/01/1978
10/01/1978
70
60
50
40
30
President Yes
Predicted value
Predicted versus actual values from extended OLS model of presidential popularity (Mitterrand)
Date
12/01/1994
03/01/1994
06/01/1993
09/01/1992
12/01/1991
03/01/1991
06/01/1990
09/01/1989
12/01/1988
03/01/1988
06/01/1987
09/01/1986
12/01/1985
03/01/1985
06/01/1984
09/01/1983
12/01/1982
03/01/1982
06/01/1981
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
President Yes
Predicted value
Predicted versus actual values from extended OLS model of presidential popularity (Chirac)
Date
06/01/2004
12/01/2003
06/01/2003
12/01/2002
06/01/2002
12/01/2001
06/01/2001
12/01/2000
06/01/2000
12/01/1999
06/01/1999
12/01/1998
06/01/1998
12/01/1997
06/01/1997
12/01/1996
06/01/1996
12/01/1995
06/01/1995
70
60
50
40
30
President Yes
Predicted value
Moving from OLS to ARIMA
The autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA)
The model incorporates:
The autoregressive term p, which is the order of the autoregressive component
The number of differences d, which is used to discount trends over time
The moving average term q, which is the moving average of the prediction error
To fit the model, we need to examine the autocorrelation and the partial autocorrelation functions (ACF and PACF)
Differenced series for presidential popularity, 1978-2004
Transforms: difference (1)
Date
Pre
sid
en
t Y
es
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Differenced series for prime ministerial popularity, 1978-2004
Transforms: difference (1)
Date
PM
Ye
s60
40
20
0
-20
-40
ACF and PACF plots for presidential popularity
President Yes
Lag Number
49
46
43
40
37
34
31
28
25
22
19
16
13
10
7
4
1
AC
F
1.0
.5
0.0
-.5
-1.0
Confidence Limits
Coefficient
President Yes
Lag Number
49
46
43
40
37
34
31
28
25
22
19
16
13
10
7
4
1P
art
ial A
CF
1.0
.5
0.0
-.5
-1.0
Confidence Limits
Coefficient
ACF and PACF plots for presidential popularity (1 difference)
President Yes
Transforms: difference (1)
Lag Number
49
46
43
40
37
34
31
28
25
22
19
16
13
10
7
4
1
AC
F
1.0
.5
0.0
-.5
-1.0
Confidence Limits
Coefficient
President Yes
Transforms: difference (1)
Lag Number
49
46
43
40
37
34
31
28
25
22
19
16
13
10
7
4
1P
art
ial A
CF
1.0
.5
0.0
-.5
-1.0
Confidence Limits
Coefficient
ARIMA (1,0,1) model predicting presidential popularity
Number of residuals 279Standard error 3.2791659Log likelihood -724.93328AIC 1469.8666SBC 1506.1787
Analysis of Variance:
DF Adj. Sum of Squares Residual VarianceResiduals 269 2950.8636 10.752929
Variable B SEB T-RATIO APPROX. PROB.AR1 .939614 .021920 42.865332 .00000000MA1 .225668 .065157 3.463472 .00062027MITTERRA 2.522298 4.175431 .604081 .54629903CHIRAC .621881 7.942852 .078294 .93765206INFLAT -.059998 .059933 -1.001086 .31768488UNEMPLOY -2.521530 1.267940 -1.988682 .04774939PM YES .320467 . 037488 8.548599 .00000000Time in Office -.143606 .034891 -4.115908 .00005133Cohabitation .486023 1.525982 .318498 .75035403CONSTANT 66.649067 10.639860 6.264092 .00000000
Alternative ARIMA (1,0,1) model predicting presidential popularity
Number of residuals 273Standard error 3.2141376Log likelihood -701.86056AIC 1425.7211SBC 1465.4253
Analysis of Variance: DF Adj. Sum of Squares Residual VarianceResiduals 262 2732.3972 10.330681
Variables in the Model: B SEB T-RATIO APPROX. PROB.AR1 .937443 .024247 38.661481 .00000000MA1 .283545 .066458 4.266519 .00002776MITTERRA -2.919352 4.294587 -.679775 .49724719CHIRAC -5.153437 7.609262 -.677258 .49883955TIO -.080188 .036839 -2.176729 .03039386COHAB .957904 1.469957 .651655 .51519511POSTELEC 3.371065 .881233 3.825394 .00016328PMYES .290923 .037170 7.826751 .00000000UNEMPL_2 -1.903296 1.265069 -1.504500 .13365712INFLAT_2 -.076970 .141287 -.544777 . 58637056CONSTANT 62.296313 11.302350 5.511802 .00000008
Predicted versus actual values of presidential popularity from ARIMA model
Date
02/01/2004
10/01/2002
06/01/2001
02/01/2000
10/01/1998
06/01/1997
02/01/1996
10/01/1994
06/01/1993
02/01/1992
10/01/1990
06/01/1989
02/01/1988
10/01/1986
06/01/1985
02/01/1984
10/01/1982
06/01/1981
02/01/1980
10/01/1978
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
President Yes
Predicted values
ARIMA versus OLS predicted values
Date
02/01/2004
10/01/2002
06/01/2001
02/01/2000
10/01/1998
06/01/1997
02/01/1996
10/01/1994
06/01/1993
02/01/1992
10/01/1990
06/01/1989
02/01/1988
10/01/1986
06/01/1985
02/01/1984
10/01/1982
06/01/1981
02/01/1980
10/01/1978
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
ARIMA prediction
OLS prediction
Predicted versus actual values of presidential popularity from ARIMA and OLS models (Giscard)
Date
04/01/1981
02/01/1981
12/01/1980
10/01/1980
08/01/1980
06/01/1980
04/01/1980
02/01/1980
12/01/1979
10/01/1979
08/01/1979
06/01/1979
04/01/1979
02/01/1979
12/01/1978
10/01/1978
70
60
50
40
30
ARIMA predicted
President Yes
OLS predicted
Predicted versus actual values of presidential popularity from ARIMA and OLS models (Mitterrand)
Date
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
ARIMA predicted
President Yes
OLS predicted
Predicted versus actual values of presidential popularity from ARIMA and OLS models (Chirac)
Date
06/01/2004
12/01/2003
06/01/2003
12/01/2002
06/01/2002
12/01/2001
06/01/2001
12/01/2000
06/01/2000
12/01/1999
06/01/1999
12/01/1998
06/01/1998
12/01/1997
06/01/1997
12/01/1996
06/01/1996
12/01/1995
06/01/1995
70
60
50
40
30
ARIMA predicted
President Yes
OLS predicted
ARIMA and OLS predicted versus actual values, 1980
Date
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
ARIMA predicted
President Yes
OLS predicted
ARIMA and OLS predicted versus actual values, 1999
Date
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
ARIMA prediction
President Yes
OLS prediction
Correlation matrix of predicted values with actual value of presidential popularity
Correlations
1 .912** .972**
. .000 .000
280 280 277
.912** 1 .930**
.000 . .000
280 311 279
.972** .930** 1
.000 .000 .
277 279 279
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
OLS predicted
President Yes
ARIMA predicted
OLS predicted President YesARIMA
predicted
Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).**.
Why choose ARIMA? Linear forecast
Random walk forecast
ARIMA forecast
Pitfalls of ARIMA
Complexities of model specification
Difficulties of interpretation
Sensitivity of data (e.g. missing values)