executive popularity in france: the promise and pitfalls of time series data

Executive Popularity in France: The Promise and Pitfalls of Time

Series Data Research and Methods

Symposium, October 1st 2004

The problems

The substantive problem: how do macroeconomic conditions affect support for the dual executive (president and prime minister) in France?

The methodological problem: What techniques are best suited to modeling time-

series data?Do any of these models have a reliable predictive

component (forecasting)

Some hypothetical data series

Stationary series

Y(t) = α, where the estimated constant α is the sample mean

Linear trend

Y(t) = α + β(t), where α is the intercept and β the slope of the trend line

“Random walk”

Y(t) = Y(t-1) + α, where α is the mean of the first difference (i.e. average change from one period to the next)

France: Executive Popularity

France: the dual executive

In de Gaulle’s formulation, the president has responsibility for ‘high politics’, while the prime minister is responsible for ‘day to day affairs’

The president is directly elected (since 1965), for a five year term (since 2002, seven years previously)

The president appoints the prime minister, who is ‘responsible’ to parliament

The president has no constitutional authority to fire the prime minister, but has acquired the de facto capacity to do this

The president may dismiss the national assembly and call for new elections (no more than once a year)

The possibility exists that the president and prime minister may be drawn from different ideological camps (cohabitation)

Cohabitation has occurred three times: 1986-88 (Mitterrand/Chirac), 1993-5 (Mitterrand/Balladur), and 1997-2002 (Chirac/Jospin).

Executive popularity in France

• Lewis-Beck (1980) finds that Prime Ministers suffer a greater decline in popularity than Presidents due to negative effects of inflation and unemployment

• Hibbs (1981) finds negative effects of unemployment on presidential approval (but positive effect of inflation!)

• Appleton (1986) finds negative relationship between unemployment and both presidential and prime ministerial approval, but no inflation effect

• Anderson (1995) suggests that the relationship is more complex, and depends upon the ideological placement of the prime minister vis a vis the president

• Lecaillon (1980) finds no impact of macroeconomic variables on executive popularity

• Anonymous (2004) finds that: presidential approval linked to unemployment, prime ministerial approval suffers from higher inflation, and that presidential popularity rises during cohabitation

Executive Popularity Indicators in France

IFOP (Since 1958, aperiodic until 1968, then monthly):“Are you satisfied with [name] as [President, Prime Minister] of France?”

June 2004: Chirac 45%Raffarin 32%

SOFRES (Since 1978):“How reliable do you think [name] is in dealing with France’s current problems?”(1974-78):“How effective do you think [name] is in dealing with France’s current

problems?”

June 2004 Chirac 35%Raffarin 28%

Also BULL-BVA series (1982-1990’s)

Presidential Popularity in France, 1978-2004Source: SOFRES

Date

02/01/2004

10/01/2002

06/01/2001

02/01/2000

10/01/1998

06/01/1997

02/01/1996

10/01/1994

06/01/1993

02/01/1992

10/01/1990

06/01/1989

02/01/1988

10/01/1986

06/01/1985

02/01/1984

10/01/1982

06/01/1981

02/01/1980

10/01/1978

Pre

sid

en

t Y

es

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

MitterrandChirac

Gis

card

d’E

stai

ng

Prime Ministerial Popularity in France, 1978-2004Source: SOFRES

Date

PM

Ye

s

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

1. Barre

2. Mauroy

3. Fabius

4. Chirac

5. Rocard

6. Cresson

7. Bérégovoy

8. Balladur

9. Juppé

10.Jospin

11.Raffarin

1 2 43

10

119

8

76

5

Executive Popularity in France, 1978-2004Source: SOFRES

Date

Va

lue

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

President Yes

PM Yes

Executive Popularity in France – Giscard d’Estaing

Source: SOFRES

Date

04/01/1981

02/01/1981

12/01/1980

10/01/1980

08/01/1980

06/01/1980

04/01/1980

02/01/1980

12/01/1979

10/01/1979

08/01/1979

06/01/1979

04/01/1979

02/01/1979

12/01/1978

10/01/1978

70

60

50

40

30

20

President Yes

PM Yes

Executive Popularity in France – MitterrandSource: SOFRES

Date

12/01/1994

03/01/1994

06/01/1993

09/01/1992

12/01/1991

03/01/1991

06/01/1990

09/01/1989

12/01/1988

03/01/1988

06/01/1987

09/01/1986

12/01/1985

03/01/1985

06/01/1984

09/01/1983

12/01/1982

03/01/1982

06/01/1981

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

President Yes

PM Yes

Chi

rac

Bal

ladu

r

Executive Popularity in France – ChiracSource: SOFRES

Date

06/01/2004

12/01/2003

06/01/2003

12/01/2002

06/01/2002

12/01/2001

06/01/2001

12/01/2000

06/01/2000

12/01/1999

06/01/1999

12/01/1998

06/01/1998

12/01/1997

06/01/1997

12/01/1996

06/01/1996

12/01/1995

06/01/1995

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

President Yes

PM Yes

Jospin

Relating executive popularity to macroeconomic conditions

Inflation and Unemployment in France, 1978-2004Source: INSEE

Date

02/01/2004

10/01/2002

06/01/2001

02/01/2000

10/01/1998

06/01/1997

02/01/1996

10/01/1994

06/01/1993

02/01/1992

10/01/1990

06/01/1989

02/01/1988

10/01/1986

06/01/1985

02/01/1984

10/01/1982

06/01/1981

02/01/1980

10/01/1978

30

20

10

0

-10

Inflation

Unemployment

Gis

card

Mitterrand Chirac

Bivariate correlations of presidential and prime ministerial popularity, inflation, and unemployment

Correlations

1 .404** .211** -.388**

. .000 .000 .000

311 308 292 299

.404** 1 -.293** .201**

.000 . .000 .001

308 308 289 296

.211** -.293** 1 -.652**

.000 .000 . .000

292 289 292 282

-.388** .201** -.652** 1

.000 .001 .000 .

299 296 282 300

Pearson Correlation

Sig. (2-tailed)

N

Pearson Correlation

Sig. (2-tailed)

N

Pearson Correlation

Sig. (2-tailed)

N

Pearson Correlation

Sig. (2-tailed)

N

President Yes

PM Yes

Inflation

Unemployment

President Yes PM Yes InflationUnemplo

yment

Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).**.

Simple OLS predicting presidential popularity

Model Summary

.458a .210 .199 7.979Model1

R R SquareAdjustedR Square

Std. Error ofthe Estimate

Predictors: (Constant), Unemployment, Mitterrand,Inflation, Chirac

a.

Coefficientsa

74.613 4.272 17.464 .000

8.624 2.327 .476 3.706 .000

9.919 2.641 .523 3.756 .000

-.094 .140 -.050 -.667 .505

-3.424 .438 -.617 -7.825 .000

(Constant)

Mitterrand

Chirac

Inflation

Unemployment

Model1

B Std. Error

UnstandardizedCoefficients

Beta

StandardizedCoefficients

t Sig.

Dependent Variable: President Yesa.

Extended OLS predicting presidential popularity

Coefficientsa

68.351 4.070 16.793 .000

-.696 2.106 -.038 -.331 .741

-5.685 2.627 -.300 -2.164 .031

-.341 .127 -.183 -2.681 .008

-2.974 .372 -.538 -7.988 .000

.365 .038 .508 9.663 .000

-.079 .012 -.394 -6.686 .000

2.511 1.021 .138 2.459 .015

(Constant)

Mitterrand

Chirac

Inflation

Unemployment

PM Yes

Time in Office (President)

Cohabitation

Model1

B Std. Error


Beta


t Sig.


Model Summary

.697a .486 .473 6.475Model1



Predictors: (Constant), Cohabitation, Time in Office(President), Unemployment, PM Yes, Mitterrand,Inflation, Chirac

a.

Extended OLS predicting presidential popularity with lagged dependent variable as

predictorModel Summary

.919a .844 .840 3.514Model1



Predictors: (Constant), President Yes lagged,Cohabitation, Mitterrand, Inflation, Time in Office(President), PM Yes, Unemployment, Chirac

a.

Coefficientsa

13.117 3.122 4.202 .000

-1.308 1.149 -.073 -1.138 .256

-2.945 1.432 -.158 -2.056 .041

-.137 .070 -.074 -1.963 .051

-.525 .226 -.096 -2.326 .021

.108 .023 .151 4.686 .000

-.021 .007 -.103 -3.004 .003

.889 .563 .050 1.579 .116

.794 .031 .805 25.246 .000

(Constant)

Mitterrand

Chirac

Inflation

Unemployment

PM Yes


Cohabitation

President Yes lagged

Model1

B Std. Error


Beta


t Sig.


Alternative extended OLS predicting presidential popularity with lagged dependent variable as

predictor

Coefficientsa

16.909 3.885 4.353 .000

.782 .570 .044 1.371 .171

-.748 .729 -.027 -1.026 .306

.791 .032 .804 24.774 .000

-.030 .008 -.153 -3.897 .000

-2.261 1.327 -.126 -1.704 .090

-4.709 1.715 -.254 -2.745 .006

.119 .023 .166 5.072 .000

-.679 .245 -.119 -2.773 .006

-.323 .107 -.152 -3.021 .003

(Constant)

Cohabitation

Post-election

President Yes lagged


Mitterrand

Chirac

PM Yes

PMA(UNEMPLOY,3)

PMA(INFLAT,3)

Model1

B Std. Error


Beta


t Sig.


Model Summary

.921 .848 .843 3.480Model1



Extended OLS predicting prime ministerial popularity with lagged dependent variable as predictor

Coefficientsa

29.199 5.282 5.528 .000

.155 .074 .060 2.088 .038

-3.553 .460 -.464 -7.722 .000

.508 .048 .364 10.674 .000

.221 .035 .219 6.282 .000

-.413 .032 -.447 -13.040 .000

15.567 1.413 .428 11.020 .000

29.161 2.170 .580 13.438 .000

19.828 2.238 .459 8.858 .000

26.562 2.129 .704 12.475 .000

10.758 1.843 .177 5.838 .000

30.285 2.304 .478 13.147 .000

44.613 2.955 1.050 15.098 .000

24.909 2.563 .566 9.718 .000

40.557 2.687 1.349 15.096 .000

25.238 2.120 .341 11.902 .000

(Constant)

Inflation

Unemployment

President Yes

PM Yes lagged

Time in office (PM)

Mauroy

Fabius

Chirac (PM)

Rocard

Cresson

Beregovoy

Balladur

Juppe

Jospin

Raffarin

Model1

B Std. Error


Beta


t Sig.

Dependent Variable: PM Yesa.

Model Summary

.961 .923 .918 3.548Model1



Alternative extended OLS predicting prime ministerial popularity with lagged dependent variable as predictor

Coefficientsa

40.486 5.889 6.875 .000

-4.467 .482 -.558 -9.262 .000

-.010 .123 -.004 -.085 .932

.513 .045 .370 11.346 .000

-.472 .033 -.516 -14.311 .000

.200 .034 .199 5.910 .000

14.785 1.369 .411 10.803 .000

29.287 2.116 .591 13.841 .000

20.088 2.204 .471 9.114 .000

26.626 2.120 .714 12.558 .000

8.985 1.913 .150 4.696 .000

29.333 2.290 .469 12.808 .000

46.180 2.854 1.102 16.180 .000

25.764 2.472 .593 10.421 .000

42.138 2.649 1.417 15.905 .000

22.987 2.184 .334 10.527 .000

(Constant)

PMA(UNEMPLOY,3)

PMA(INFLAT,3)

President Yes

Time in office (PM)

PM Yes lagged

Mauroy

Fabius

Chirac (PM)

Rocard

Cresson

Beregovoy

Balladur

Juppe

Jospin

Raffarin

Model1

B Std. Error


Beta


t Sig.

Dependent Variable: PM Yesa.

Model Summary

.964 .929 .925 3.388Model1



Predicted versus actual values from extended OLS model of presidential popularity

Date

02/01/2004

10/01/2002

06/01/2001

02/01/2000

10/01/1998

06/01/1997

02/01/1996

10/01/1994

06/01/1993

02/01/1992

10/01/1990

06/01/1989

02/01/1988

10/01/1986

06/01/1985

02/01/1984

10/01/1982

06/01/1981

02/01/1980

10/01/1978

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

ARIMA predicted

OLS predicted

Predicted versus actual values from extended OLS model of presidential popularity (Giscard)

Date

04/01/1981

02/01/1981

12/01/1980

10/01/1980

08/01/1980

06/01/1980

04/01/1980

02/01/1980

12/01/1979

10/01/1979

08/01/1979

06/01/1979

04/01/1979

02/01/1979

12/01/1978

10/01/1978

70

60

50

40

30

President Yes

Predicted value

Predicted versus actual values from extended OLS model of presidential popularity (Mitterrand)

Date

12/01/1994

03/01/1994

06/01/1993

09/01/1992

12/01/1991

03/01/1991

06/01/1990

09/01/1989

12/01/1988

03/01/1988

06/01/1987

09/01/1986

12/01/1985

03/01/1985

06/01/1984

09/01/1983

12/01/1982

03/01/1982

06/01/1981

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

President Yes

Predicted value

Predicted versus actual values from extended OLS model of presidential popularity (Chirac)

Date

06/01/2004

12/01/2003

06/01/2003

12/01/2002

06/01/2002

12/01/2001

06/01/2001

12/01/2000

06/01/2000

12/01/1999

06/01/1999

12/01/1998

06/01/1998

12/01/1997

06/01/1997

12/01/1996

06/01/1996

12/01/1995

06/01/1995

70

60

50

40

30

President Yes

Predicted value

Moving from OLS to ARIMA

The autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA)

The model incorporates:

The autoregressive term p, which is the order of the autoregressive component

The number of differences d, which is used to discount trends over time

The moving average term q, which is the moving average of the prediction error

To fit the model, we need to examine the autocorrelation and the partial autocorrelation functions (ACF and PACF)

Differenced series for presidential popularity, 1978-2004

Transforms: difference (1)

Date

Pre

sid

en

t Y

es

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Differenced series for prime ministerial popularity, 1978-2004


Date

PM

Ye

s60

40

20

0

-20

-40

ACF and PACF plots for presidential popularity

President Yes

Lag Number

49

46

43

40

37

34

31

28

25

22

19

16

13

10

7

4

1

AC

F

1.0

.5

0.0

-.5

-1.0

Confidence Limits

Coefficient

President Yes

Lag Number

49

46

43

40

37

34

31

28

25

22

19

16

13

10

7

4

1P

art

ial A

CF

1.0

.5

0.0

-.5

-1.0

Confidence Limits

Coefficient

ACF and PACF plots for presidential popularity (1 difference)

President Yes


Lag Number

49

46

43

40

37

34

31

28

25

22

19

16

13

10

7

4

1

AC

F

1.0

.5

0.0

-.5

-1.0

Confidence Limits

Coefficient

President Yes


Lag Number

49

46

43

40

37

34

31

28

25

22

19

16

13

10

7

4

1P

art

ial A

CF

1.0

.5

0.0

-.5

-1.0

Confidence Limits

Coefficient

ARIMA (1,0,1) model predicting presidential popularity

Number of residuals 279Standard error 3.2791659Log likelihood -724.93328AIC 1469.8666SBC 1506.1787

Analysis of Variance:

DF Adj. Sum of Squares Residual VarianceResiduals 269 2950.8636 10.752929

Variable B SEB T-RATIO APPROX. PROB.AR1 .939614 .021920 42.865332 .00000000MA1 .225668 .065157 3.463472 .00062027MITTERRA 2.522298 4.175431 .604081 .54629903CHIRAC .621881 7.942852 .078294 .93765206INFLAT -.059998 .059933 -1.001086 .31768488UNEMPLOY -2.521530 1.267940 -1.988682 .04774939PM YES .320467 . 037488 8.548599 .00000000Time in Office -.143606 .034891 -4.115908 .00005133Cohabitation .486023 1.525982 .318498 .75035403CONSTANT 66.649067 10.639860 6.264092 .00000000

Alternative ARIMA (1,0,1) model predicting presidential popularity

Number of residuals 273Standard error 3.2141376Log likelihood -701.86056AIC 1425.7211SBC 1465.4253

Analysis of Variance: DF Adj. Sum of Squares Residual VarianceResiduals 262 2732.3972 10.330681

Variables in the Model: B SEB T-RATIO APPROX. PROB.AR1 .937443 .024247 38.661481 .00000000MA1 .283545 .066458 4.266519 .00002776MITTERRA -2.919352 4.294587 -.679775 .49724719CHIRAC -5.153437 7.609262 -.677258 .49883955TIO -.080188 .036839 -2.176729 .03039386COHAB .957904 1.469957 .651655 .51519511POSTELEC 3.371065 .881233 3.825394 .00016328PMYES .290923 .037170 7.826751 .00000000UNEMPL_2 -1.903296 1.265069 -1.504500 .13365712INFLAT_2 -.076970 .141287 -.544777 . 58637056CONSTANT 62.296313 11.302350 5.511802 .00000008

Predicted versus actual values of presidential popularity from ARIMA model

Date

02/01/2004

10/01/2002

06/01/2001

02/01/2000

10/01/1998

06/01/1997

02/01/1996

10/01/1994

06/01/1993

02/01/1992

10/01/1990

06/01/1989

02/01/1988

10/01/1986

06/01/1985

02/01/1984

10/01/1982

06/01/1981

02/01/1980

10/01/1978

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

President Yes

Predicted values

ARIMA versus OLS predicted values

Date

02/01/2004

10/01/2002

06/01/2001

02/01/2000

10/01/1998

06/01/1997

02/01/1996

10/01/1994

06/01/1993

02/01/1992

10/01/1990

06/01/1989

02/01/1988

10/01/1986

06/01/1985

02/01/1984

10/01/1982

06/01/1981

02/01/1980

10/01/1978

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

ARIMA prediction

OLS prediction

Predicted versus actual values of presidential popularity from ARIMA and OLS models (Giscard)

Date

04/01/1981

02/01/1981

12/01/1980

10/01/1980

08/01/1980

06/01/1980

04/01/1980

02/01/1980

12/01/1979

10/01/1979

08/01/1979

06/01/1979

04/01/1979

02/01/1979

12/01/1978

10/01/1978

70

60

50

40

30

ARIMA predicted

President Yes

OLS predicted

Predicted versus actual values of presidential popularity from ARIMA and OLS models (Mitterrand)

Date

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

ARIMA predicted

President Yes

OLS predicted

Predicted versus actual values of presidential popularity from ARIMA and OLS models (Chirac)

Date

06/01/2004

12/01/2003

06/01/2003

12/01/2002

06/01/2002

12/01/2001

06/01/2001

12/01/2000

06/01/2000

12/01/1999

06/01/1999

12/01/1998

06/01/1998

12/01/1997

06/01/1997

12/01/1996

06/01/1996

12/01/1995

06/01/1995

70

60

50

40

30

ARIMA predicted

President Yes

OLS predicted

ARIMA and OLS predicted versus actual values, 1980

Date

60

58

56

54

52

50

48

ARIMA predicted

President Yes

OLS predicted

ARIMA and OLS predicted versus actual values, 1999

Date

64

62

60

58

56

54

52

50

48

ARIMA prediction

President Yes

OLS prediction

Correlation matrix of predicted values with actual value of presidential popularity

Correlations

1 .912** .972**

. .000 .000

280 280 277

.912** 1 .930**

.000 . .000

280 311 279

.972** .930** 1

.000 .000 .

277 279 279

Pearson Correlation

Sig. (2-tailed)

N

Pearson Correlation

Sig. (2-tailed)

N

Pearson Correlation

Sig. (2-tailed)

N

OLS predicted

President Yes

ARIMA predicted

OLS predicted President YesARIMA

predicted

Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).**.

Why choose ARIMA? Linear forecast

Random walk forecast

ARIMA forecast

Pitfalls of ARIMA

Complexities of model specification

Difficulties of interpretation

Sensitivity of data (e.g. missing values)

executive popularity in france: the promise and pitfalls of time series data

Documents