evaluating the full spectrum of efforts by the state to control terrorism
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Evaluating the Full Spectrum of Efforts by the State to Control Terrorism. Laura Dugan University of Maryland Erica Chenoweth Wesleyan University. How we Typically Think of Counterterrorism. Effects might Depend on Regional Diversity. Government Legitimacy - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Evaluating the Full Spectrum of Efforts by
the State to Control Terrorism
Laura DuganUniversity of Maryland
Erica ChenowethWesleyan University
How we Typically Think of Counterterrorism
Effects might Depend on Regional Diversity
• Government Legitimacy• Economic and Social Well-Being of
Citizens—or terrorist constituency• Political Literacy• Religious Influences
Effects Might Depend on Terrorist Organizational Diversity
• Apocalyptic• Single Issue• Religious• Nationalist• Dependent on Constituency• Highly Competitive with Other
Organizations• And so on…
Dealing with the Devil:START funded research with Erica Chenoweth
Considers the full range of approaches to countering terrorism from fully conciliatory
to excessively repressive, with an eye toward developing a global counterterrorism
database.
Only by understanding the optimal counterterrorism strategy that is best suited
across a spectrum of conditions can we improve our chances of reducing global
terrorism.
More Specifically
We will collect data from five Middle East countries on a wide range of government actions directed toward
perpetrators of terrorism.
AlgeriaEgypt
Lebanon
Israel
Turkey
Sample Actions
patrol
Martial law
Stakeoutsinternment
sniper
Investigatin
g Abuses
raid
harassrelease
deploy
beating
Boycott supporters
Dimensions of Countering Terrorism
Discriminate
Iniscriminate
Repressive Conciliatory
AC
TIO
N
TARGET
ACTOR TYPE
Material
Immaterial
Justice Politician
Police Military
V/NV
Conciliatory-Repressive Scale
1. Accommodation2. Conciliatory action3. Conciliatory statement or intention4. Neutral or ambiguous5. Verbal conflict6. Physical conflict7. Extreme repression (intent to kill)
Data Collection Strategy
• Literature Search• Textual Analysis by Augmented
Replacement Instructions (TABARI)1. Searches lead sentences of news
sources based on complex dictionary that specifies subject, verb and object (actor-action-target). (international event data)
2. Filters hits into a new file and a database that captures key variables.
3. Keep action by State Actors against Sub-State Actors
Preliminary Findings for Israel - Actors
Israeli Actors
Military46%
Politician45%
Police5%
Judiciary4%
Israeli TargetsIsraeli Action Targets
Palestinians68.8%
Palestinian Terrorists
22.0%
Lebanese Terrorists
0.8%Israelis8.0%
Lebanese0.3%
Other0.1%
Actions Captured in TABARI
Actions by IsraelActons By Israel
0
50
100
150
200
250
Year
Act
ion
Fre
qu
ency
Accomodation/Full Concessions Conciliatory ActionConciliatory Statement or Intentions Neutral or AmbiguousVerbal Conflict Physical ConflictExtreme Repression (deaths)
Actions by IsraelIsrael Actions Toward Sub-State Actors
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Years
Fre
qu
en
cy
of
Ac
tio
ns
Repressive ActionsNeutral ActionsConciliatory Actions
Repressive Actions & TerrorismRepressive Actions by Government and Terror Attacks
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Rep
res
sive
Ac
tio
ns
0
50
100
150
200
250
Nu
mb
er
of
Ter
ror
Att
ack
s
Repressive ActionsTerror Attacks
Conciliatory Actions & TerrorismConciliatory Actions by Government and Terror Attacks
0
50
100
150
200
250
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Co
nc
ilia
tory
Ac
tio
ns
0
50
100
150
200
250
Nu
mb
er
of
Ter
ror
Att
ack
s
Conciliatory ActionsTerror Attacks
All Actions & TerrorismActions and Terror Attacks
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Year
Ac
tio
ns
0
50
100
150
200
250
Ter
ror
Att
acks
Conciliatory ActionsRepressive ActionsTerror Attacks
Methods to Assessing Efficacy
• Vector Autoregression: multiple time series of different types of actions and terrorist attacks by different perpetrators.
• Series Hazard Modeling: Analysis of more discrete campaigns countering terrorism on the hazard of continued attacks.
Next Steps
• Complete data for remaining 4 countries
• Use original articles to collect more details about actions and to link them through campaigns.– Fill in the detail
• Extend data collection to remaining 7 additional countries including more democracies.
Additional SlideActions by Israel
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
conciliatory repressive
materialimmaterial