1. Jim Kinnett Della Rucker

2. The world is changing, and your efforts need to adapt You can use incentives, but you have to do it differently than you used to. Financing projects is more complicated than its ever been 3. If your economic development efforts are not working effectively and not working to meet your communitys needs and priorities. 4. What does success look like for your community? Are you moving in that direction? Are the programs and organizations youre using today working? 5. What are you trying to achieve? How well is your local economy functioning in terms of moving toward those goals? How well are your local economic development efforts functioning in terms of moving toward those goals? 6. First Question: what are you trying to achieve? 7. What do you want to be when you grow up? 8. Once you understand your goals, youre ready to start evaluating your efforts. 9. Second Question: How are we really doing? 10. E > P Economy growing faster than Population 11. Economy drives dollars (resources/revenues) Population uses dollars (services/expenses) 12. E > P Economic Base Growth Qualified/Nonqualified Workers Services Growth Service Demand Tax Self-sufficiency Growth Imbalance Net Worth Community Dependents Youth and Elderly 13. Demography is Destiny Index Economic Health Index Community Health Index Government Fiscal Index Economic Development Effort Index 14. Measure of demographic indicators of economic health Typical Metrics: Regional Interdependency, Population growth/decline, population age, diversification, poverty rate, ethnic diversification 15. The quality of the jobs in the community as measured by wages, skill levels, business concentration and job diversification. Typical metrics: Average wages and growth, economic sectors growth and contracting, number of jobs, jobs by type of education, total labor force, labor participation rate, unemployment, etc. 16. The health of the community as measured by housing, poverty, crime and educational indicators. Typical Metrics: Poverty rate and changes, diversity of housing opportunities, housing affordability, percentage of Section 8 or affordable housing opportunties, ownership or rental; condition of local school system (drop out rate, etc.) 17. The health of local government as measured by the fiscal condition of local government, the breadth of services provided, the balance of income and expenses Typical Measures: Stability of sources, diversity of sources, infrastructure expenditures, etc. 18. The quality of the communitys economic development efforts. Typical Metrics: Partnerships, financial stability of ED Organiation; work with other groups; 19. Third Question, Part 1: How well do you know your community? 20. Can you take an unbiased look? How critical can you be? Honesty and Transparency 21. What do you need to know to have a productive discussion? Do you think your community has a Demographic problem? Economic base problem? Service sector or leakage problem? Public sector management problem? How confident are you of your assessment? 22. What Do You Think is Going On? Gut check 23. What else is right/wrong? 24. Second Question, Part 2: How are we really doing and how can we be more sure? 25. Ow. You can do some on your own Internet tools make most of it easier You may need help There are few perfect answers Youre looking for indicators piecing together a picture from fragments. 26. Five Indices: Well walk through 3 here One assumed to be pretty easy 5th will be the final section 27. Ask... Is the population growing? Shrinking? Stable? Is the 24-44 age group growing faster than the 64-84 cohort? Better or less educated ? What is happening to the ratio of those with college degrees? Those earning $35,000 or more? Less? 28. Qualified Workforce Test Non QW Q Worker Dep. Youth Dep. Older 29. Key Metrics: Percent Unemployed Percent Not in Labor Force NILF = Dept Older + Nqual WF Occupation/Industry Distribution Change in population over time 30. Sources: Census (American Factfinder) Business Analyst Online (subscription required) On The Map 31. Other things to ask... Is the population becoming healthier? More fit? Are you losing your native talent? Do you have an unemployment problem? Under employment problem? 32. Key sources: 33. Ask Is the value of the local economy growing faster than population? Are average salaries in the economic base increasing? Is your economic base diverse? What sectors are growing/shrinking? 34. Key Metrics: Total payroll for geography, change over time (may require discounting) Average payroll (for non-suppressed sectors) Distribution of payroll or establishments across industries 35. Key sources: Economic Census (American FactFinder) Your tax office Business Analyst Online 36. More questions to ask Is any part of your economic base at risk? Any new sectors on the horizon? What sectors are likely to change in the next decade? Are you at full employment and out of extra labor to grow the economic base? Is your service sector stealing talent from your economic base employers? 37. Key sources: 38. Is your residential tax base growing faster than commercial tax base? Is your cost of delivering infrastructure and services going up faster than revenues? 39. Is the budget of local government growing faster then population? Faster than the economy? What is the risk of a major revenue or expense variation for local governments? 40. Theres a lot of data The biggest problem is that its hard (or sometimes impossible) to use for analysis There might be a way around that. 41. Third Question: What do I do with all this stuff? 42. Just like anything else, a return on investment can take many forms. The key challenge is to figure out as a group whether you are satisfied with what youre getting, or whether something needs to change. 43. Similar to Gut Check structure. Make categories fit your goals and the key issues you analyzed. Pass/Fail, Letter Grades, scale 1- 10whatever works Share data Crowdsource assessment Identify key factors that need to change 44. Pick some data points that particularly got your attention /speak to the key factors that need to change Determine if you can best track them quantitatively or qualitatively Start tracking them Share your results. 45. Use the Dashboard to start discussion regarding whether your economic development efforts are having the impact they should. 46. 1. Commercial to Residential Tax Ratio C/R 2. Population Growth 0-40 Trends 3. Local Tax Burden (current vs. Past)/ Household/Per Capita 4. Dependency Ratio E/P 5. Labor Participation Rate General + Ethnic 47. 6. Educational Attainment 7. Jobs Vs. Population Ratio E>P 8. Public Capital Expenditures/Tax Revenue 9. Ecosystem Trends 10. Cultural Diversity 48. So now that you have some idea how your community is doing Its time to evaluate your Economic Development Effectiveness Index 49. Are your economic development efforts set up to make the change you need? Is the community getting an acceptable return on its investment? What should you look for? 50. Strategic Perspective Tactical Opportunistic Organized Delusion Clueless Apathy Hostile Waters 51. 1. Strategic Perspective Dominant player Driven by transaction based metrics, Highest level of strategic preparation/investment, Exec Staff at risk for performance, Focus is on specific market making, results assured by internal forces and volition of organization. Marker: Exec is reponsible for meeting mutually-developed, realistic metrics 52. 2. Tactical Opportunistic Too many targets, Fuzzy goals, No transaction metrics, Exec not at risk Lacks marketing resources, Depends on others for most leads External forces determine success. Marker: Theres a list of goals, but no one is paying attention to them or measuring (including Exec.) 53. 3. Organized Delusion No performance metrics, No plan No marketing resources No accountability No strategic investment. Unprepared when opportunity arises Marker: Not measuring and cannot prove meaningful progress toward any goals 54. 4. Clueless Apathetic Doesnt know there is a game, or knows but doesnt care, Believes in the tooth fairy, May be receptive but is unrealistic and unprepared No organization, no EDP, no plan, no budget, no inventory Unable to respond. 55. 5. Hostile Knows there is a game but refuses to play Anti business and/or anti- growth politics, Leaders openly hostile to new economic base employers, Business climate deteriorating, Existing base employers trying to leave. 56. How do you get to Strategic? 57. Strategic, deliberate and proactive Economic development strategy discussions are disciplined, focused and productive Specific future economy is defined 58. Political will motivated by economic base calculation for new economy Organization formed for single mission 59. The board sets goals, writes plan and manages by metrics Program is funded & driven by transaction metrics 60. Annual marketing budget exceeds $2.50 per capita Program is staffed by experienced, well paid, at-risk professionals EDPs are interviewed, hired & given responsibility & control over critical program factors 61. Strategies for marketing, business climate improvement, infrastructure development, workforce development investment are integrated 62. Della Rucker, AICP, CEcD The Wise Economy Workshop www.wiseeconomy.com Della.rucker@wiseeconomy.com 513.288.6613 @dellarucker Della Rucker AICP CEcD Also on LinkedIn and Google+ James Kinnett, CEcD, FM, EDFP The Kinnett Consulting Group www.kinnett.biz Jim@kinnett.biz 812.290.5663 Mark Barbash, FM Economic Development Consulting www.markbarbashconsulting.com Mark.barbash@gmail.com 614.774.7599