evaluating different strategies for distributing …€¦ · evaluating different strategies for...
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EVALUATING DIFFERENT STRATEGIES FOR DISTRIBUTING LIMITED FMD VACCINE DURING AN FMD OUTBREAK
E P I D E M I O LO G I C A N D E C O N O M I C M O D E L I N G T E A MA M Y D E LG A D O, M S D V M P H DD I R E C TO R , M O N I TO R I N G A N D M O D E L I N GC E A H : V S : A P H I S : U S DA
O C TO B E R 1 4 , 2 0 1 7
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National Model for FMD Spread and Control
Commercial bisonDairy/beef cattleGoatsSheepSwine
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National Model for FMD Spread and Control
1.8 million farms900+ livestock markets
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National Model for FMD Spread and Control
Livestock movementsOther farm connections(indirect contacts)Disease spread defined by species and/or production type
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Integrated Control Strategies
Surveillance:PassiveActiveTracing
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Integrated Control Strategies
Movement restrictionsDepopulationVaccination
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What are the optimal strategies for distributing limited FMD vaccine during an outbreak?
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Mix of production types and animal/farm densities
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Swine 2nd doses
Day 1
Doses 0 300,000
7
550,000per week
3
0
21 47 98
100,000 animals/day
78,571 animals/day
< 78,571 animals/dayContinuous vaccine
production
First Detection
550,000per week
2.5 Million Doses Used
14 weeks
Vaccine Doses and Rate of Vaccination
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Containment v. protective vaccination zones Ring vaccination v. epidemiological risk areaBlanket v. percent coverage within a zone Species/production type targeted
Vaccination Strategy
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High density beef cattle
Low density production types
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High density dairy cattleModerate density production types
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High density swineHigh density production types
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Scenarios:
1. No vaccination (baseline)
2. Vaccination within a 10km ring around detected farms
3. Vaccination within a protective vaccine ring
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Beef RegionN
um
be
r o
f A
nim
als
(mill
ion
s)
Nu
mb
er
of
Farm
s
16
Dairy RegionN
um
be
r o
f A
nim
als
(mill
ion
s)
Nu
mb
er
of
Farm
s
17
Swine RegionN
um
be
r o
f A
nim
als
(mill
ion
s)
Nu
mb
er
of
Farm
s
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Example: blanketed vaccination, 80km ring
200 mi
Questions:1. What are the daily vaccination
capacities by species/production type? How many vaccination teams per state?
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Questions:1. What are the daily vaccination
capacities by species/production type? How many vaccination teams per state?
2. How do vaccination priorities change when using containment v. protective vaccination zones?
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Questions:1. What are the daily vaccination
capacities by species/production type? How many vaccination teams per state?
2. How do vaccination priorities change when using containment v. protective vaccination zones
3. What species, production types, and/or animal types should be targeted for vaccination for each state?
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Questions:1. What are the daily vaccination
capacities by species/production type? How many vaccination teams per state?
2. How do vaccination priorities change when using containment v. protective vaccination zones
3. What species, production types, and/or animal types should be targeted for vaccination for each state?
4. How best to share our outputs?
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Economic Impacts of FMD Vaccination Presentation◦ Monday, October 16th in the FED Committee
◦ Presented by: Dr. Stephanie Shwiff, USDA APHIS NWRC
Epidemiologic and Economic Modeling TeamCenter for Epidemiology and Animal HealthU.S. Department of AgricultureAnimal and Plant Health Inspection ServiceVeterinary Services
Amy Delgado, MS DVM PhDDirector, Monitoring and [email protected]