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EuroRISK PREVIEW Windstorms Workpackage

Ken Mylne, Met Office

© EURORISK consortium

Eurorisk PREVIEW

Project overview

© EURORISK consortium

PREVIEW in some words

A project funded by the European Commission 23 millions € of eligible costs, 14 millions € granted

New information services to help risk management Gathering users needs Using the most advanced research and technology Validation on operational platforms

58 partners from 15 nations Scientists Operators Industrial companies End Users

45 months performance schedule and yearly budget reviews

© EURORISK consortium

FIRES

Atmospheric Risks services

© INSA

FLOODS

WINDSTORMS© Meteo France JRC

© EURORISK consortium

Geophysical risk services

Landslides

Earthquake and Volcanoes

© EURORISK consortium

Man made Risk services- Engineering

- Industrial accidents

General Services

- Assets Mapping

- Damages estimates

- Damages observation

© EURORISK consortium

Windstorms Workpackage

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Components of Package

Risk Mapping – Return Periods/ climatology

Best Practise Probability Forecasts (Day 10 – Day 1)

Civil Protection Response (Demonstration)

Downscaling to Local Impacts

Training and Awareness

Warnings related to return periods/ normal risks

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Risk Mapping

Lead: SMHI

Task: Map return periods Estimate climatology

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Best Practise Probability Forecasts

Ensemble Forecast inputs: Medium-Range (3-10 days)

ECMWF ARPA-SIM (COSMO-LEPS) (Days 3-5)

Short-Range (1-2 days) – multi-model ensemble consisting of contributions from:

Meteo-France - PEACE DWD - SRNWP-PEPS Met.no - TEPS/LAM EPS Met Office - LAMEPS/EPS

Post-processing…

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Site-specific Ensemble Forecasts

Ensemble forecasts will be collected and post-processed on a site-specific basis:Utilise existing technology/capabilityAllows bias correction and calibrationReduced data volumes for international exchangeAids combination of multiple forecast inputs in

common formatDisadvantage:

Risk of strongest winds falling between site locationsHi-resolution models and nowcasts add detail in

short-range

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Products for the Risk Manager

Plot of ensemble spread

0%

100%

Prob

Probability graph for multiple severity thresholds

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Additional short-range forecasts

Met.no - hi-res downscaling (complex terrain) Met Office – hi-res downscaling Met Office – wind nowcasting

12 km (Part Domain)

2 km

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Warnings/Downscaling

Lead: SMHI

Contributors: SRSA

Task: Relate forecast probs

to return periods Downscale to identify

impact hazards

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EMMA Website - for display of warnings

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Training & Awareness

Workshop topics: Uncertainty Best practice

forecasting Risk management How to get best

value for specific users

Lead: SMHI

Contributors: SRSA, Met O

Task: Train end-users

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Civil Protection Response

Demonstrate warnings and (potential) responses

Assess impact compared to traditional methods

Lead: SRSA

Contributors: All

Task: Demonstrate

application of warnings in Civil Defence

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Tasks Lead Contributors

Risk Mapping

Probability Forecasts

Civil Protection Demo

Downscaling

Training

Warnings

MetO

SMHI

SMHI

SMHI

SMHI

SRSA

SRSA

ECMWF, M-F, met.no, DWD, SMHI

SRSA, MetO

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Summary

Risk Mapping – Return Periods/ climatology

SMHI, IMK

Best Practise Probability Forecasts

MetO, ECMWF, M-F, Met.no, DWD, SMHI

Civil Protection Response (Demonstration)

SRSA

Downscaling to Local Impacts

SMHI, SRSA

Training and Awareness

SMHI, SRSA, MetO

Warnings related to return periods/ normal risks

SMHI

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Accreditation

WAFCWorld Area Forecast Centre

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Questions & Answers