european sustainable energy forum · 2008-11-10 · ulf bossel - 070703 - lucerne 10 0 2000 4000...

Ulf Bossel - 070703 - Lucerne

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Phenomena, Facts and Physicsof a Sustainable Energy Future

European Fuel Cell ForumMorgenacherstrasse 2F

CH-5452 Oberrohrdorf / SwitzerlandTel.: +41-56-496-7292, Fax: - 4412

[email protected], www.efcf.com

Presenting physics, not philosophy

Ulf BosselDipl. Ing. ETH

Ph.D. (UC Berkeley)

European Sustainable Energy ForumJuly 3, 2007

Lucerne / Switzerland


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Carbon Dioxide and Energy

The most effective way to reduce CO2 emissions is the switch from “dirty” fossil to “clean” renewable energy sources

combined with high energy efficiency

Global Warming is threatening mankindMain cause: CO2 from fossil energy consumption

CO2 production cannot be reduced significantly by legislative directives like

international agreements, carbon trading, CO2 taxes etc.

CO2 production must be reducedby a drastic reduction of fossil energy consumption


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Fundamental Laws of Physics1st Law of Thermodynamics:

„Energy cannot be created ……..

It can only be converted from one state to another.“

2nd Law of Thermodynamics:

„Some energy is always lost when energy is converted.“

… neither by presidential initiatives, majority votes of parliaments, decisions of committees, political parties,

nor by power plants, utilities, oil companies etc.


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Political Consequencesderived from this fundamental law of physics

The energy problem cannot be solved by politics or energy companies.

Please stop misleading statements and false promises.Make people understand the truth:

Energy availability cannot become a fundamental human right.Consumers must accept responsibility for their energy use

and adjust their energy consumption to their financial means by

Energy conservation: Avoid unnecessary energyEnergy efficiency: Use products with low specific energy consumptionEnergy harvest: Personally own or participate in renewable energy facilities

and accept visual impact of renewable energy installations


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As long as we tolerate this ……


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…... we should not complain about that ……


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…... or that ……


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…... or that!


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Energetic Consequencesderived from this fundamental law of physics

Where does the energy come from?

For reasons of physics: classification in “above” and “below” ground

above ground

belowground

Sun WindWater

Biomass

Coal Oil Gas Geo-thermal

Lignite U

Uranium

Waves


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0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1930 1970 2010 2050 2090

Mtoe

Year

Nuclear Energy

Coal

Gas

Oil

Data source: Oil, Gas, Colin Campbell/ASPO 2005Coal-, Nuclear Scenario, LBST 2005

2007

Modified original from Werner Zittel. LBSTSES-Presentation, Zurich, 2 June 2006

World Primary Energy SupplyForecast

No chance for close the fossil fuel gap by any other energy source

Only renewable energyavailable for a gradual replacement of fossil fuels

Rational use of energy (energy efficiency)is key to sustainble future

?

Energy cannot be created. Consumers must adjust to energy availability

All source are„below ground“


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Uranium Supply and Demand

Energy Watch Group (EWG), "URANIUM RESOURCES AND NUCLEAR ENERGY.Background paper prepared by the Energy Watch Group", Paper 1/2006 [pdf, 500 kB]

2007


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Coal Supply and Demand

Energy Watch Group (EWG), “COAL RESOURCES AND FUTURE PRODUCTIONS. Background paper prepared by the Energy Watch Group", Paper 1/2007 [pdf, 500 kB]

2007


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0

2

4

6

8

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050

Years

Primary Energy Demand and Energy Source Depletion

“above ground” renewablesNo energy needed to make

the sun shine or the wind blow

Source qualitye.g. % Uranium

Primary energydemand

Energy toconsumers

Even at constant consumption the demand of primary energy from “below ground” sources

will grow exponentially


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Energy Invested and Energy Gained

Energy problem must be solved with technologieswhose lifecycle energy balance is positive.

Time

Energy

Lifetimeenergy gain

Energy invest(gray energy)

Energy needed formaintenance

Energy delivered

Energy needed fordecomissioning


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Typical Net Energy Gains

Prime contenders for sustainable energy solutions:Wind and solar energy

Energy

farmed biomass

photovoltaics

nuclear Coal, gas, oil

wind

Time

heat losses

Useful electricity

Uranium oredepletion


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? ? ?Sustainable Energy Future

What is the problem?

Leaving“below ground”energy county

Entering“above ground”energy county


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Goodwill and ConfusionThere are many well-intended proposals of sustainable energy solutions.

However:

Most proposals are based on fascinating phenomena“Hydrogen can be made from many sources”

“CO2 can be separated from flue gases”“Tractors can be driven with rape seed oil”

Followed by the establishment of factspolitical decisions, research programs, international cooperation

R&D on specific technical solutions

Without proper consideration of the overall energy balance!

We have to solve an energy problem, not a technology or economic problem!


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Example 1: Hydrogen “Energy” (1)

2 hydrogen atoms = 2 hydrogen atoms 1 oxygen atom = 1 oxygen atom

1 carbon atom = 1 carbon atom8 hydrogen atoms = 8 hydrogen atoms

2 oxygen atoms = 2 oxygen atoms

Simple equations, easy to understand, friendly elements H, O and CHydrogen promoters see solutions.

Even politicians can follow and initiate hydrogen programs

Species balance (phenomena)From water by electrolysis

H2O => H2 + ½ O2

From natural gas and water by reforming

CH4 + 2 H2O => 4 H2 + CO2


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9 kg H2O = 1 kg H2 + 8 kg O2

2 kg CH4 + 4.5 kg H2O = 1 kg H2 + 5.5 kg CO2

Availability of clean water may limit hydrogen production.Mass handling not trivial. Carbon sequestration???

1 kg hydrogen replaces 1 Gallon or 4 Liters of gasoline

Mass balance (technology R&D)From water by electorlysis

H2O => H2 + ½ O2


CH4 + 2 H2O => 4 H2 + CO2



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From water by electorlysis

H2O => H2 + ½ O2


CH4 + 2 H2O => 4 H2 + CO2

Where does the energy come from to make and distribute hydrogen?We need to solve energy problems, not chemical problems!

electrical energy = energy in H2Reality: 1.3 kWh input = 1 kWh energy in H2 + 0.3 kWh lost

Methane energy + heat = energy in H2Reality: 1.2 kWh input = 1 kWh energy in H2 + 0.2 kWh lost

Energy balance (energy solution)

Add 60% for hydrogen distribution to customers



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Magnitude of the Energy Problem

Need 2,500 t LH2 or 36,000 m3 LH2 / dayextracted from 22,500 m3 water / day

plus continuous output of eight 1-GW power plantsfor electrolysis, liquefaction, transport, transfer of LH2!

Energy problems can never be solved by switching from fossil fuels to hydrogen

Frankfurt Airport (2004)520 jet departures per day, 50 Jumbo Jets (Boeing 747)

50 Jumbo Jets per dayeach loaded with

130 t of kerosene (today) or 50 t of liquid hydrogen (future)

At least 20 nuclear power plants plus the entire water consumption of Frankfurt needed to serve all 520 jet aircrafts per day at Frankfurt Airport


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Example 2: CO2-Sequestration

For 1 kg coal:Heating value (LHV) 8.5 kWh/kgModern Power Plant (PP) Electricity to grid: 3.87 kWh η = 45%

PP with CO2-Sequestration Electricity to grid: 3.23 kWh η = 38%Energy needs for CO2 liquefaction: 0,2 kWh/kg

or for 3.67 kg CO2 0.7 kWhEnergy needs for CO2 transport (guess) 0.5 kWhEnergy needs for CO2 disposal (guess for 1000 m) 0.2 kWhTotal energy needs for CO2-sequestration 1.40 kWhEffective useful energy 1.83 kWh

Overall efficiency η = 21.5%Coal-electricity-electrolysis-hydrogen-distribution-fuel cells-electricity: η = 5%

Twice as much coal for same generated power

C + O2 = CO212 kg C + 32 kg O2 = 44 kg CO2

1 kg C + 2.67 kg O2 = 3.67 kg CO21 GWel: 3 Mio tonnes of coal converted to 11 Mio tonnes of CO2 per year


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Example 3: Fuels from Farmed BiomassBiomass: For 1 ha of land:Average solar insolation 16,000,000 kWh / (ha*a)Harvested dry biomass 16 t / (ha*a)HHV of dry biomass 4,000 kWh / tRaw-biomass-energy harvest 64,000 kWh / (ha*a)Efficiency of PHOTOSYNTHESIS 0.40%

bio-methane bio-hydrogenConversion of biomass to gas 90% 80%Gas compression and distribution 90% 80%Conversion of gas to electricity 45% (SOFC) 40% (PEM)Useful AC electricity 24,600 kWh / (ha*a) 16,400 kWh / (ha*a)Energy for agriculture, transport, processing 4,000 4,500Useful energy 20,600 kWh / (ha*a) 11,900 kWh / (ha*a)Overall efficiency 0.137% 0,074%

Photovoltaic:Land use 80% 12,800,000 kWh / (ha*a)DC from PV array 12% 1,536,000 kWh / (ha*a)DC/AC conversion, transmission 85% 1,305,600 kWh / (ha*a)Overall efficiency PHOTOVOLTAICS 8.16% (110 x )PV-electricity-electrolysis-hydrogen-fuel cellsElectrolysis: 70%, compression, distribution: 80%, AC electricity: 32% of 1.536.000 kWh/ha*a 344.000 kWh / (ha*a)

2.15% (29 x )

Farmed biomass inadequate for energy production


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Biomass, Wind or Photovoltaics?

Ulf Bossel – Tholey 250806

Photovoltaics and wind far superior to biomass

Photovoltaic170 GWh / (km2a)

[300 GWh / (km2a)]

Wind50 GWh / (km2a)

[80 GWh / (km2a)]Biomass

2 GWh / (km2a)[2.5 GWh / (km2a)]

Useful AC electricity per year from 1 km2 of land


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Energy Harvest for Transportation

Ulf Bossel – Tholey 250806

Road mileage from 1 hectare of land

Biodiesel: 21,500 km

Bioethanol: 22,500 km

Biomass to Liquid: 60,000 km

Biogas: 67,000 km

Electricity from PV: 3,250,000 km

From:„Organisierte Verschwendung“

(“Organized Waste”)Photon. April, 2007

, (German solar energy magazine)

The problem is not the substitution of gasoline by biofuels,but the replacement of inefficient IC by efficient electric motors


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Corrections in the secondary energy arealike hydrogen, clean coal, farmed biomass

cannot provide lasting solutions: Time and money wasted, global catastrophe

Leaving“below ground”energy county

Entering“above ground”energy county


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SustainableEnergyFuture


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Sustainable Energy Future

Leaving “below ground”chemical energy county

Entering “above ground”physical energy county


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Sustainable Energy Future

Only two conditions must be satisfied:

Need to re-organize the energy system for a sustainable energy future

2.Efficiency

Distribution, storage and use

1.Sustainability

Energy source, energy waste, distribution and use

Equations become “over-determined”, if also „economy“ is demanded

Energy – Ecology – Economy


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Why Economy ?

Use compulsory reference energy price schedules or assure feed-in tariffs for transition period

Economic analyses must be based on energy prices over the entire lifetime of compared systems.

By physics:“Below ground” energy (today): Cost of energy increase exponentially“Above ground” energy (future): Cost of energy stays constant forever

Economics of renewable energy systems:- is poor, when based on today’s energy prices

- would be excellent, if based on energy prices in 2020

Economic comparison of renewable to conventional energy solutions leads to speculative results, but not to assured investment decisions

But how expensive is “below ground” energy in 2015, 2020, 2025?


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Energy Challenge

With the exception of food people need physical energy

motion, communication, light, heating and cooling(space conditioning and cooking), industrial processes

The challenge is the direct transfer of physical energy from source to service

Matching of physical demand to physical supply

With the exception of biomass nature provides physical energy

kinetic energy of wind, water, wavessolar radiation, geothermal heat


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Energy Flux Diagram of Germany (1995)

yellow: primary energyblue: energy losses purple: energy to final (inefficient) use


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Sustainable Energy

Energy only from sustainably managed renewable sources:Solar energy photovoltaic = electricity

thermal ≈ electricity, hot water, space heating etc.Wind energy ≈ electricityHydropower ≈ electricityOcean energy waves, tides ≈ electricityGeothermal heat ≈ electricity, hot water, space heating etc.Biomass and organic waste heat, organic fuels

heat ≈ electricity, hot water, space heating etc.

Energy carriers like water, hydrogen, electrons etc.obey the laws of species conservation.

Energy carriers cannot be classified as „sustainable“

Most renewable energy is “harvested” as electricity

Oil, natural gas, coal or nuclear are not sustainable!


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Solar Energy Availability

Solar energy received by red square exceeds world energy needs

In addition: wind, waves, geothermal, biomass, organic waste etc.


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Renewable Electricity to the UserElectricity from

Renewable Sources

Fuel Cells

Electrolysis

Hydrogen Economy

Electricityto the user

H2

Electron Economy

e-

e-

e-

e-

H2


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elec

troly

zer

fuel

cel

l

rene

wab

le A

C e

lect

ricity

DC

ele

ctric

ity

hydr

ogen

gas

pack

aged

trans

porte

d

trans

ferr

ed

stor

ed

DC

AC

100%

25%20%

90%

by electrons

gaseous hydrogenliquid hydrogen

by hydrogen

Consumer

RenewableSource Energy

Electricity Transport


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Renewable AC electricity AC power

100%110%

Renewable Energy Power Plantsand energy transport by electrons or hydrogen

400%

3 of 4 renewable energy power plants are neededto cover the losses! Also:New infrastructures for hydrogen and electricity

Substantially more renewable electricity needed

by hydrogen

by electrons


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Sustainable Energy FutureBy laws of physics:

The future will see an efficient physical energy “electron economy”(not an inefficient chemical energy “hydrogen economy”)

Develop and implement all-electric solutions likeelectric heat pumps, electric cars, electricity storage, grid extensions etc.

Promote electricity from renewable sources likehydropower, solar energy, wind energy, waves etc.

Use organic waste for the production of biofuelsfor long distance transportation by land, sea and air

Save farm land for food production andefficient wind and PV installations

First priority: Improve efficienty of energy system


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Energy Efficiency SolutionsGoal: Better living with less energy

Efficiency requires physical energy carrierslike electricity

(compatible with energy from renewable sources)

The same energy services (space conditioning, transport, light, communication etc.)

can be provided with much less energy

Housing15% of today

Industry30% of today

Transportation30% of today


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Transportation Sector

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0 50 100 150 200

Distance per car ride in km

Num

ber o

f rid

es u

p to

X (k

m)

in p

erce

nt o

f all

rides

Source:Mobilität in Deutschland 2002(61729 people interview ed)

50% of all car rides are shorter than 5 km19% 5-10 km, 10% 10-15 km, 6% 15-20 km

Need solutions for local mobility, not for family vacations

Find solutions for real transportation needs(Average driving distance: 45 km/d (US), 25 km/d (Europe)


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Electricity for Transportation

133

127

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42

22

0 50 100 150

Li-ion EV

NiMH EV

compressed airvehicle

H2 in FCV

H2 in hybrid IC-EV

km traveled on 100 MJ at generator terminals

Wind-to-Wheel Energy Assessment for Ford Taurus-Size Carby Patrick Mazza and Roel Hammerschlag

(Lucerne Fuel Cell Forum 2005, corrected) 100 MJ = 28 kWh, 100 km = 60 miles


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Electric Cars are ComingLength 177 inWidth 70 inCurb weight 3500 lbs (+180 lbs)Seating 5Max. Power 4 x 50 = 200 kWMax. speed 120 MphRange/charge 150 M (300 M)Lithium-ion 90Ah at 14.8 VNo. of batteries 24Max. energy stored 32 kWh Gasoline equivalent 3 LitersFuel economy 1.2 L/100 km

= 200 mpg

Mitsubishi Lancer Evolution MIEV:

Source: Mitsubishi Corporate Press Release of August 24, 2005


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Sustainable Transportation Solutions

Distance land, air and ocean transport with “last drop of oil” or biofuels

No need for wasteful hydrogen for IC engine and fuel cell vehicles

(“Wind-to-Wheel” efficiency 20 to 25%)

Efficient electric or hybrid-electric cars for commuting and local transport(“Wind-to-Wheel” efficiency 70%)


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Renewable Energy Demand to Cover Storage Transfer Losses

Storage transfer efficiency essential for economic use of renewable energy

Input

Ideal storage(no losses)

Output

super capacitors: 109%Lithium-ion batteries: 116%

Lead acid batteries: 130%pumped water: 130%

compressed air: 156%

liquefied hydrogen: 400%

compressed hydrogen: 312%

0%

100% ≈

Useful energy

Primaryrenewable energy


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Need Dispersed Electricity Storage

Sustainable future:In addition to large centralized two-way storage facilities

One-way storage with many small dispersed appliance-connected storage units

In a sustainable energy future utilities will supply electricity when available to one-way storage

systems matched to end-use demands.

Today:Two-way storage in few large centralized facilities near power plans

Power Plant Consumer

2-waystorage

Renewable El.

Renewable El.

Renewable El.

2-way-storage


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Assumptions:$1 Mio/MWpeak or $3 Mio per MWaverage for advanced wind generators

$2 Mio/MWaverage from private investors$1 Mio/MWaverage from government

$1 million would trigger investment in 1 MW continuous wind power$300 billion would lead to 300 GW continuous wind generating capacity

How much wind energy capacity could have been obtained by $300 billion of US Government support?

Harvested wind energy sufficient to power 260 million electric family cars, each for 20,000 miles per year

Forever!

Need 0.65% of US landmass, but farming can continue under wind generators

Not a Question of Money


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ConclusionsA sustainable energy future based on energy from

renewable sources and energy efficiency is possible!

Prepare for an “Electron Economy”

We need:

Energy strategies based on physics, not fantasies.Investments in sustainable technologies, not research.

Courageous and wise political leadership.

Energy base will be changed from chemical to physical

Farmed biomass cannot provide solutions


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Thank you for your patience!

Questions?www.efcf.com/reports

european sustainable energy forum · 2008-11-10 · ulf bossel - 070703 - lucerne 10 0 2000 4000...

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