getting real about future energy - · pdf file23.9 mtoe = 1ej = 278 twh ... mbpd 100 23.9 mtoe...
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Getting Real About Future Energy
Dr. Marc Durandeau, Oil & Gas Consultant
Scottish Oil Club, Edinburgh, 7 December 2017
Introduction• “World energy consumption increases from 549 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 629
quadrillion Btu in 2020 and then to 815 quadrillion Btu in 2040, a 48% increase (1.4%/year). Non-OECD Asia (including China and India) account for more than half of the increase.”
• World delivered energy consumption Split per sector:2012 2040
➢ Industrials: 54% 53%➢ Transports 25% 26%➢ Buildings 20% 21%
• “With current policies and regulations, worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rise from about 32 billion metric tons in 2012 to 36 billion metric tons in 2020 and then to 43 billion metric tons in 2040, a 34% increase.”
• “Renewable energy is the world’s fastest-growing energy source, increasing by 2.6%/year; nuclear energy grows by 2.3%/year, from 4% of the global total in 2012 to 6% in 2040.”
(Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016)
Introduction
world energy consumption
quadrillion Btu
Non-OECD Asia accounts for 55% of the world increase in energy use
OECD=Organization for Economic Co-Operation & Development
Solar Power
• Solar Photovoltaic:– During the last decade, large MW Solar Power plants using Photovoltaic panels (PV)
were implemented in China, US, Middle-east with a substantial cost reduction ( more than 30%) and are now competitive with others energy resources (Coal, Fuel, gas, Nuclear energy).
– This success was mainly due to innovation, development of new material, Economic of scale and Learning-by-doing.
• Concentrated Solar Power (CSP):– Their implementation are following the same success trend but allow also to store
the energy and restitute the energy during the night
• Thermal Solar Energy:
– Steam is generated with this system and can be coupled with turbine to generate electricity
• Solar energy Is however highly dependent of the geolocation
Wind Power
• Onshore wind Farms:– During the last decades, many wind farms were implemented all over the world in appropriate
windy locations and in particular in North Europe. Fabrication and implementation costs were also substantially reduced ( more than 30%) and could be competitive with others energy resources (Coal, Fuel, Gas, Nuclear energy) when placed at the right location.
– This success was mainly due to innovative design, use of new material, Scale Economy and Learning-by doing.
– New wind farm implementation are however affected by the acceptance of the population
• Offshore wind Plants:
– Due to the Offshore industry experience, their implementation is expected to be faster and their cost competitive with other energies. The two first project bides in UK lead to a price of 65€/MWh compared to more than 105€/MWh for a nuclear plant.
• Wind energy is also highly dependent of the geolocation
Future Energy Mix• The composition of the energy mix per country in Europe is dependent of available
internal resources and access to external resources but also of political decision which will guide the trends for a certain time.
• Fossil energy is not popular among European Politicians (France, UK, Germany, Scotland?,…) although fossil energy was a development vector for their economy during the past decades.
• Exploration of Shale gas is almost banned and development of new Oil & Gas resources will be stopped shortly in some countries. This will impact the local oil & Gas industry in a short term and affect their knowhow worldwide.
• Processes however exist with additional cost to decarboxylate the fossil energy and take care of Carbon footprint, Climate warming as well as environment impact.
• Politicians should set the standards and leave the experts/researchers find new solutions to met the goals and positively innovate.
Future Energy Mix
• It is highly understandable that using gasoline in a combustion car engine is not optimal for carbon footprint but at the same time, if electrical car engine is used, we should think how to produce centralized electrical power on a clean manner and to manufacture environmental free batteries.
• Renewable energies alone could not support the world energy demand growth.
• It is also very important to put in place politics/incentives to favor the reduction of the energy demand and reduce the current increasing trend of the entropy of the planet:
➢ In the Industrial processes
➢ In the housings
➢ In transports
Renewable net electricity generation in 2040 renewable net electricity generation by selected country and country grouping, 2040
billion kilowatthours
World Net Electricity generation
world net electricity generation by source
trillion kilowatthours
World nuclear capacity growthWorld installed nuclear capacity by region
gigawatts
World Primary Energy Mix by Source
23.9 Mtoe = 1ej = 278 TWh(DNV-GL: Energy Transition Outlook 2017 )
Oil & Gas Energies in the Energy Mix
• To day fossil energy represent almost 75% of the worldwide energy mix (28% for Coal, 28% for Oil & 18% for Gas)
• At the horizon of 2050, current best estimate indicates that fossil energy will still represent more than 50% of the World Energy consumption with the corresponding split:
➢ Coal ~ 10%
➢ Oil ~ 17%
➢ Gas ~ 25%
• Renewable energies (Hydroelectric, Biomass, Solar Thermal & PV, Wind and Geothermal energies) will represent only 44% of the worldwide energy consumption at 2050 horizon.
World OIL Demand By Sector
2050 2040 2030 2020 2010 2000 1990 1980
0
60
Energy sector
own use
Power stations
Non-Energy
Other
Manufacturing
Buildings
Transport
180
120
Sector
WORLD OIL DEMAND BY SECTOR
Units: EJ/yr
23.9 Mtoe = 1ej = 278 TWh(DNV-GL: Energy Transition Outlook 2017 )
World Gas Demand by Sector
2050 2040 2030 2020 2010 2000 1990 1980
0
50
Energy sector
own use
Power Station
Non-Energy
Other
Manufacturing
Buildings
Transport
200
150
100
Sector
WORLD GAS DEMAND BY SECTOR Units: EJ/yr
23.9 Mtoe = 1ej = 278 TWh(DNV-GL: Energy Transition Outlook 2017 )
How to get there: Crude oil Production
2050 2040 2030 2020 2010 2000 1990 1980
60
40
20
0
Unconventional
Onshore
Offshore
Conventional Onshore
80
Field
CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION BY FIELD TYPE
Units: Mbpd
100
23.9 Mtoe = 1ej = 278 TWh(DNV-GL: Energy Transition Outlook 2017 )
Additional Conventional Onshore Oil Capacity
2050 2045 2040 2035 2030 2025 2020 2015
0
0.5
OECD Pacific S. E. Asia
Indian Subcont. China
N.E. Eurasia M.E. & N. Africa
Sub-Shrn Africa Europe Lat. America N. America
1.0
1.5
Region
WORLD CONVENTIONAL ONSHORE OIL PRODUCTION CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY REGION
Units: Mbpd/yr
2.0
23.9 Mtoe = 1ej = 278 TWh(DNV-GL: Energy Transition Outlook 2017 )
Unconventional Onshore Oil Production By Region
2050 2040 2030 2020 2010 2000 1990 1980
5
0
OECD Pacific S. E. Asia
Indian Subcont. China N.E. Eurasia
M.E. & N. Africa Sub-Shrn Africa
Europe Lat. America N. America
20
15
10
Region
UNCONVENTIONAL ONSHORE OIL PRODUCTION BY REGION
Units: Mbpd
25
(DNV-GL: Energy Transition Outlook 2017 )
Offshore Oil Production by Region
2050 2040 2030 2020 2010 2000 1990 1980
5
0
OECD Pacific S. E. Asia
Indian Subcont. China N.E. Eurasia
M.E. & N. Africa Sub-Shrn Africa
Europe Lat. America N. America
25
20
15
10
Region
OFFSHORE OIL PRODUCTION BY REGION
Units: Mbpd
30
23.9 Mtoe = 1ej = 278 TWh(DNV-GL: Energy Transition Outlook 2017 )
Additional Offshore Oil Production Capacity
2050 2045 2040 2035 2030 2025 2020 2015
0
0.5
OECD Pacific S. E. Asia
Indian Subcont. China N.E. Eurasia
M.E. & N. Africa Sub-Shrn Africa
Europe
Lat. America N. America
1.0
1.5
Region
WORLD OFFSHORE OIL PRODUCTION CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY REGION
Units: Mbpd/yr
2.0
(DNV-GL: Energy Transition Outlook 2017 )
Gas Production By Field Type
3000
2000
1000
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Unconventional
Onshore
Offshore
Conventional Onshore
4000
Field
GAS PRODUCTION BY FIELD TYPE
Units: Gm³/yr
5000
23.9 Mtoe = 1ej = 278 TWh(DNV-GL: Energy Transition Outlook 2017 )
Conventional Onshore Gas Production By Region
2050 2040 2030 2020 2010 2000 1990 1980
500
0
OECD Pacific S. E. Asia
Indian Subcont. China N.E. Eurasia
M.E. & N. Africa Sub-Shrn Africa
Europe
Lat. America N. America
2000
1500
1000
Region
CONVENTIONAL ONSHORE GAS PRODUCTION BY REGION
Units: Gm³/yr
2500
23.9 Mtoe = 1ej = 278 TWh(DNV-GL: Energy Transition Outlook 2017 )
Unconventional Onshore Gas Production by Region
300
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
OECD Pacific S. E. Asia
Indian Subcont. China N.E. Eurasia
M.E. & N. Africa Sub-Shrn Africa
Europe
Lat. America N. America
1200
900
600
Region
UNCONVENTIONAL ONSHORE GAS PRODUCTION BY REGION
Units: Gm³/yr
1500
23.9 Mtoe = 1ej = 278 TWh(DNV-GL: Energy Transition Outlook 2017 )
Offshore Gas Production By Region
300
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
OECD Pacific S. E. Asia
Indian Subcont. China N.E. Eurasia
M.E. & N. Africa Sub-Shrn Africa
Europe
Lat. America N. America
1200
900
600
Region
OFFSHORE GAS PRODUCTION BY REGION
Units: Gm³/yr
1500
23.9 Mtoe = 1ej = 278 TWh(DNV-GL: Energy Transition Outlook 2017 )
World Offshore Gas Production Capacity Additions
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
OECD Pacific S. E. Asia
Indian Subcont. China N.E. Eurasia
M.E. & N. Africa Sub-Shrn Africa
Europe
Lat. America N. America
Region
WORLD OFFSHORE GAS PRODUCTION CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY REGION
Units: Gm³/yr
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
23.9 Mtoe = 1ej = 278 TWh(DNV-GL: Energy Transition Outlook 2017 )
Challenges for the Oil and Gas Industry
• Adapt their organization to new Energy Mix:➢ Optimize at short term the Refining plants to the new products demand which
may require some co-operation with National Oil Compagnies
➢ Incorporate Renewable Energies projects in their activities to become an « Energy Company » and remain a strong actor in the new Energy Mix
• Innovate in the implementation of new project to optimize the use of the current discovered Resources and convert them in Reserves➢ Reduce the reserves consumption (currently ~10%) in the production Process
by using renewable energies when feasible.
➢ Innovate in the development scheme of the Fields by optimizing not only the short term economical parameters but also the reserves (longer plateau, earlyEOR projects, etc..)
Challenges for the Oil and Gas Industry
• Invest more in Exploration by innovating in new exploration concept althoughExploration is highly mature & then more risky
• Extra heavy oil resources were not really considered in the Oil forecasts due to extraction complexity and geopolitical issues. To day, Steam is heavily used to produce such type of oil. More cost effective processes could be implementedbut need to be first implemented at pilot scale before moving to full scale.
• Innovation should still be the main driver in this industry and should be basedon:
➢ Internal ManPower expertise associated to a large & efficient worldwideexpertise network
➢ International Research facilities
➢ Adapted research budget linked with the target Company objectives
Area: 23 000 m2 on 5 levelsLaboratories: 36 labs on 8000 m2 Opening date: 15th December 2016Building Cost: US$90 MLab Equipment: about US$80 M
ADNOC RESEARCH & INNOVATION CENTER
Thank You