ESTIMATING MARKET SHARE

Through Traffic Analysis

Dr. Asoka Korale, C.Eng. MIET

What is Market Share Based on

what the Telecom Regulatory Commission says

Subscribers Revenues Traffic

Require Objective Method Telecom Regulatory Commission – as reported by operators

Subscribers Defined in terms of revenue generating base – Based on window in time over which subscribers are active

large variation depending on selected time interval

Revenues From published accounts where available

Traffic – Contribution of each operator to total traffic produced Intra (on net)/Inter (off net) operator call volumes and

aggregate minutes of use

Traffic Based Estimate Use known intra and inter operator traffic volume

measurements

Express each operator’s traffic contribution in terms of known intra net traffic volume contribution Amount of traffic produced proportional to subscriber base No direct dependence on composition of the base (pre / post paid), time

windows or subscribers (can be related to subscribers if necessary) As market share is expressed as a proportion of known (Dialog) traffic no

impact of variation in RGB during different time windows Predict corresponding subscriber shares of other operators utilizing own

(Dialog) RGB and each operator’s estimated market share

Another view of market share - the proportion that each operator contributes to total traffic generated

Assumptions All subscribers are uniform across all of the networks, and they are all

equally likely to make a call to any other subscriber in any network. Under this assumption of uniformity all subscribers are also equally likely to

receive a call from any other subscriber in any network. 

The number of calls (traffic) originated by a particular network is directly proportional to the number of subscribers belonging to that network.

The number of calls “attracted” to (terminated) in a particular network is also directly proportional to the number of subscribers belonging to that network.

All subscribers are not uniform as they generate traffic according to their specific packages and prepaid/ post paid segment

Adjust for effect of differing tariffs and impact on generated traffic

Total subscribers10,000

Airtel-500

Mobitel-2000

Tigo-750

Hutch-750

Dialog - 6000

Total calls 1000

600

30

120

45

45

1000/10000 *6000 600/10000*6000

600/10000*4000

360

240

240/4000*500

240/4000*2000

240/4000*750

240/4000*750

50

200

75

75

1000/10000 *2000

1000/10000 *500

1000/10000 *750

1000/10000 *750

Example Network Consider a network space of 10,000 subscribers

that generate 1000 calls in a busy hour the view from Dialog’s position

Figure 1

Dialog6000 subs

Mobitel2000 subs

Tigo750 subs

Hutch750 subs

360 calls

240 calls

30 calls

120 calls

Airtel500 subs

45 calls

45 calls

The Network Space from Dialog’s Position

Dialog will originate (1000/10000)*6000 = 600 calls uniformly to all subscribers (in all networks).

(600/10000)*6000 = 360 calls will be to Dialogs own (D2D) subscribers.

Of the 600 calls, (600/10000)*4000 = 240 calls will be to other networks The 240 outgoing calls to other networks are distributed as (240/4000)*500 = 30 calls to Airtel (240/4000)*2000 = 120 calls to Mobitel, and so on…

The Network Space from Airtel’s Position

The view from Airtel’s position

Airtel

500 subs

Mobitel

2000 subs

Tigo

750 subs

Hutch

750 subs

2.5 calls

47.5 calls

30 calls

10 calls

Dialog

6000 subs

3.75 calls calls

3.75 calls

Figure 2

View from Airtel’s Position Airtel will originate (1000/10000)*500 = 50 calls –

uniformly to all subscribers (across all operators). (50/10000)*500 = 2.5 calls will be to Airtel’s own subscribers. (50/10000)*9500 = 47.5 calls will be to other networks

The 47.5 outgoing calls to other networks are distributed as (47.5/9500)*6000 = 30 calls to Dialog (47.5/9500)*2000 = 10 calls to Mobitel, and so on…

Predicted symmetry in the traffic between operators Large operator makes a smaller proportion of OG calls to smaller

operator Small operator makes a larger proportion of OG calls to large operator Expect similar number of calls (MOU) from Dialog to Airtel and

from Airtel to Dialog

Results on Inter Network Traffic Symmetry

Total traffic between Dialog and other networks in a busy hour - over 7 day period (in 105)

Within +/- 10%

Total Incoming

MOUs

Total outgoing

MOUs

Total incoming

calls

Total outgoing

Calls

Airtel 3.5475 3.3206 2.173 2.06

Etisalat 6.8092 8.3425 4.407 4.881

Hutch 0.8331 0.8114 0.461 0.472

Mobitel 10.371 11.0604 5.449 5.756

Adjusting for Tariffs Differing on net and off net tariffs affect average

duration of on net and off net calls Assumption: Call length is inversely proportional to

tariff Ex: If on net tariff is 1 Rs per min and off net tariff is 2 Rs

per min. A subscriber who spends 4 minutes on an on net call will spend ½ the time on a off net call or two minutes.

Adjust the MOUs by the ratio between the off net tariff to the on net tariff as the off net MOUs will be under stated by this factor

(any proportionality constant will cancel)

The traffic attracted to an operator is proportional to the subscriber base (market share)

Adjusting MOUs Off net MOUs understated due to difference in tariffs

Scale off net MOUs by the ratio between off net to on net tariff

Market share independent of “absolute” number of subscribers ie RGB can differ based on time window but share wouldn’t change

D2D: 360 calls => 360*4 = 1440MOUs

Share Mobitel = 1/3/(1+1/3) = 25%

Dialog6000 subs Mobitel

2000 subs120 calls => 120*2 MOUs

Adjusted MOUs = 240 * (D2ND tariff/ D2D tariff) = 480 MOUs

Proportion Mobitel = 480/1440 = 1/3

Share Dialog = 1/(1+1/3) = 75%

Estimate Based on Aggregate Traffic

Using aggregate MOUs to individual operators and average on net and off net tariffs, with the pre and post paid split

Dialog

6000 subs

Mobitel

2000 subs

ToT_D2D_MOU: 360 calls => 360*4 = 1440MOUs

120 calls => 120*2 MOUs

iinetworkproportion

MOBproportionMOBshare_1

__

MOUDDTotMOUadjePTotMOUadjPoPTotMOBproportion

_2_)__Pr____(_

tariffDDePtariffNDDePMOUePMOUadjePTot

_2_Pr_2_Pr_Pr__Pr_

tariffDDPoPtariffNDDPoPMOUPoPMOUadjPoPTot

_2__2_____

Required Measurements

D2D MOUs (pre pay and post pay) Outgoing MOUs to each Operator Average pre pay D2D tariff and D2ND

tariff Average post pay D2D tariff and D2ND

tariff

Implementation Required data already available in

monthly spreadsheets and easy to automate inter operator MOUs

Interconnection details voice spreadsheet Intra net MOUs, average off net / on net,

pre pay and post pay tariffs Daily performance spreadsheet

Easy calculation

Estimate Based on Aggregate Traffic

Using aggregate MOUs to individual operators and average on net and off net tariffs

March April MayShare Airtel 0.0780 0.0765 0.0747Share Hutch 0.0164 0.0173 0.0181Share Mobitel 0.2526 0.2534 0.2542Share Etisalat 0.1863 0.1865 0.1864Share Dialog 0.4664 0.4660 0.4663

Validation: Call by Call Analysis Observing predicted symmetry The tariffs applicable to the individual subscriber package used Results of a call by call analysis in a busy hour over 7 day period,

using tariffs from packages applicable to individual subscribers The short term estimates converge to the aggregate based

estimate

MayShare Airtel 0.0763Share Hutch 0.0187Share Mobitel 0.2599Share Etisalat 0.1787Share Dialog 0.4663

Conclusion: Main Points in the Estimation

Estimates computed by expressing traffic volume to other operators (off net traffic) in terms of the intra net traffic (D2D traffic) The outgoing traffic to each operator gives an indication of the weight of

that operator in terms of Dialogs own subscriber base Traffic attracted by other networks is proportional to their internal

subscriber base (oranges) – but expressed in terms of Dialog base (apples) Indirectly relating each operator’s base to Dialog base

As outgoing traffic is utilized - estimate not dependent on specific details of each operator’s internal pre /post split or on net / off net tariffs

Even loss of symmetry in the traffic will not affect validity of the estimates as calculation is based on relating the outgoing traffic to on net traffic

Once other operator traffic (oranges) expressed in terms of Dialogs intra net traffic (apples) - The ratio (of apples to apples) of the off net / on net traffic volumes will give proportion and indicate market share

Thank You

Relating the OG MOUs

X X X X X X

Y Y

12 MOU

4 MOU(adjusted)

Dialog

Operator Y

Irrespective of the type of subscriber that operator Y has, the market share estimatedepends on the outgoing D2D and D2ND MOUs. The weight of operator Y will be expressed in terms of Dialog subscribers (MOUs).

If 6X attract 12 MOUs OG, then 4 MOUs OG (attracted by Y) Imply Op Y has (6/12)*4->, 2X type subscribersShare = 1/3 /[1 + 1/3]

Estimate independent of OpY tariffs and subscriber composition