Erik Pedersen, Independent Consultant

HFC Management Workshop,UNEP, Paris, July 11-12, 2014

Sector Sector HFC consumption

Existing uses of HFCs

Mobile Air Conditioners

New vehicles with MAC Systems

46 million new cars by A5 countries

33,000 MT to 37,000 MT of HFC-134a

Servicing of vehicles with MAC system

~300 million cars in A5 countries

25,000 MT to 30,000 MT of HFC-134a

Domestic refrigerators

New refrigerators with HFC-134a

~ 40 million new 134a DRs by A5

6,000 MT to 7,000 MT of HFC-134a

Servicing existing refrigerators HFC/HC

~300 million DRs in A5 countries

4,500 MT to 5,500 MT of HFC-134a

HCFCs to be replaced by non-HFCs or via HFC to non-HFC Alternatives

Air conditioners

New ACs and servicing 95,000 MT of HCFC-22

Converting to HFC-32, HC-290 and/or HFO blend

Commercial refrigeration

CR Units and CR system,(compressor manufacturers)

~45,000 MT Converting to HFC-32, HC-600a, HC-290, R744

PU Foam sector

Foam production 75,000 MT of HCFC-141b

~ 10%-20% might convert to HFCs => to Non-HFC

Sector Alternatives ICC CEUS$/kg of HFCs

ICC CEUS$/CO2 equ

MAC, Vehicles manufactures

HFO-1234yf US$ 6.35/kg HFC-134a

US$ 4.44/tCO2-e

MAC component manufacturer

HFO-1234yf Na Na

MAC, Servicing HFO-1234yf US$ 6.5/kg US$4.55/tCO2-e

Domestic refrigerators

R-600a, US$10.4/kg HFC-134a

US$ 7.29/tCO2-e

DR Servicing HFC-123a/R-600a US$6.5/kg HFC-134a

US$ 5/tCO2-e

AC HFC-32, HFO blends and R290

US$ 5/kg HCFC-22 ($14/kg for R290)

US$ 2.60/tCO2-e($7.78/kg for R290)

CR plug-in units (Refrigeration part)

HFC-32, HC-290, HC-600a and HFOs

US$ 8.0/kg HCFC-22

US$ 4.44/tCO2-e

CR on site installations

HC-290, R744 US$ 4.5/kg HCFC-22

US$ 3.6/tCO2-e

PU Foam HC, HFOs,water/CO2

US$17/kg (HC)US$ 5.5/kg (HFO)

US$23.45/tCO2-e (HC)US$ 7.59 (HFO)

Sector Use of HFCs and HCFCs

ICC CEUS$/kg of HFCs

ICC Conversion cost

MAC, Vehicles manufactures

35,000 MT US$ 6.35/kg HFC US$ 222.25 million

MAC component manufacturer

N.A. N.A. No estimates available

MAC, Servicing 27,500 MT US$ 6.5/kg HFC/HFO

US$ 178.75 million

Domestic refrigerators 6,500 MT US$10.4/kg HFC US$ 67.6 million

Dom Ref Servicing 5,000 MT US$ 6.5/kg HFC/HC US$ 32.5million

AC 95,000 MT US$ 5/kg HCFC-22 US$ 475 million

Com Ref, P-I units 35,000 MT US$ 8/kg HCFC-22 US$ 280 million

Industry-Com Ref On site

10,000 MT US$ 4.5/kg HCFC-22

US$ 45,000

PU Foam 15,000 MT US$ 17/kg HCFC-141b

US$ 255 million

A5 Baseline estimated based on latest proposal as around500 million tons CO2 equivalent

Non-HFC Technologies are avail, but: High up-front investment cost for e.g. hydrocarbon based technologies, Are safety requirements a barrier?, High cost of low carbon chemicals, Very high HFOs prices are quoted, but

will the experiences on the history of cost of e.g. HFC-134a be repeated.

What will drive the phase-out of HFC-134a in the MAC sector in A5 countries?

Cost of servicing of existing chemical and new non-HFC flammable alternatives. R600 and R290 HFC-32 and HFOs

Are Technology transfer a barrier for going non-HFC?

What are the barriers for going directly to Non-HFC technologies for stage II and III of the HPMPs instead of HFCs:

A choice between high cost of IOC for HFOs or high cost of ICC for hydrocarbon based technologies.

MLF funding policies will play a major role,

Thank you for listening