eqspertis azri

giorgi gvimraZe

erayis krizisi

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÓÔÒÀÔÄÂÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÖÒÈÉÄÒÈÏÁÀÈÀ ÊÅËÄÅÉÓ ×ÏÍÃÉGEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

2014

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publikacia daibeWda amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis saelCos finansuri mxardaWeriT.

redaqtori: rusudan margiSvili

teqnikuri redaqtori: artem meliq-nubarovi

saavtoro uflebebi daculia da ekuTvnis saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fonds. werilobiTi nebarTvis gareSe wignis arc erTi nawili ar SeiZleba gadaibeWdos nebismieri,

maT Soris, eleqtronuli an meqanikuri formiT.

© saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa kvlevis fondi 2014 weli

ISSN 1512-4835 ISBN 978-9941-0-6886-7

2014 wlis ivnisis dasawyisSi erayis krizisi axal fa-zaSi Sevida. arsebuli mdgomareoba Sefasda, rogorc erayis arsebobisaTvis yvelaze didi safrTxe mas Sedeg, rac man 1932 wels damoukidebloba moipova. erayisa da al-Samis (ZiriTa-dad Tanamedrove siria) islamurma saxelmwifom (amgvari saxel wodebiT aris cnobili radikaluri sunituri teror-istuli dajgufeba) moaxerxa sakuTari kontroli daemyare-bina qveynis Cdrilo-dasavleTiT, sakmaod did farTobze da igi akontrolebs erayis sididiT meore qalaqsac _ mosuls. maTi Setevis Semdeg daaxloebiT xuTasi aTasi adamiani gax-da iZulebuli daetovebina qalaqi. xsenebuli radikaluri jgufi aseve akontrolebs sakamod vrcel teritorias siriis Crdilo-aRmosavleTSi, erayis sazRvris gaswvriv. ivlisis da-sawyisSi organizaciam ganacxada siria-erayis sazRvris gauq-mebis Sesaxeb, sakuTari Tavi islamur saxelmwifod, saxali-fod, xolo misi lideri am saxelmwifos xalifad daasaxela. gaeros monacemebiT, ivnisis TveSi msxverplis raodenobam miaRwia 2500 adamians, saidanac daaxloebiT 1500 samoqalaqo piria.

viTarebas arTulebs isic, rom erayis parlamenti, ro-melic aprilSi Catarebuli saparlamento arCevnebis Semdeg pirvelad 1 ivliss Seikriba, dgas aucileblobis winaSe _ moa-xer xos axli mTavrobis formireba. proceduris mixedviT, man unda airCios parlamentis Tavmjdomare, Semdeg _ prezidenti da bolos _ premier-ministri axali ministrTa kabinetiT. Se-Tanxmebisamebr, es sami mTavari Tanamdeboba gadanawilebulia Semdegnairad: parlamentis Tavmjdomare – suniti, preziden-ti _ qurTuli eTnikuri jgufis wrmomadgeneli da premier-ministri – Siiti. politikuri oponentebi jer kidev ver axerxeben SeTanxmebas kandidatebTan dakavSirebiT. sunitebi da qurTebi kategoriulad ewinaaRmdegebian moqmedi premier-ministris _ nuri al-maleqis xelisuflebaSi darCenas. Ta-vis mxriv, es ukanaskneli apirebs postis SenarCunebas ukve mesame vadiT da aseve uaryofs koaliciuri mTavrobis Seqmnis ideas, riskenac mas mouwodeben dasavleli partniorebi, gan-sakuTrebiT _ amerikis SeerTebuli Statebi.

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erayis winaaRmdegobrivi religiur-eTnikuri suraTi

erayi, Tavis mxriv, ar gamoirCeva gansakuTrebuli religiur-eTnikuri siWreliT axlo aRmosavleTSi. misi mo-saxleobis sakmaod didi nawili, daaxloebiT 80 procenti, eTnikuri arabia, daaxloebiT 15 procents Seadgenen qurTe-bi, xolo danarCeni nawili aris Turquli, somxuri, ebrauli, Cerqezuli da sxva mcirericxovani eTnikuri umciresobebis warmomadgeneli. qveynis religiur umravlesoba Siitebi ari-an, romlebic mosaxleobis daaxloebiT 60 procents Sead-genen. meore didi jgufi eraySi sunituri Temia, romelsac ganekuTvneba mosaxleobis daaxloebiT 30-35 procenti. danar Ceni nawili aris iezidi, iudeveli, qristiani da sxv.

aRsaniSnavia, rom erayi warmoadgens Siitebsa da sunitebs Soris arsebuli istoriuli dapirispirebis erT-erT umTavres areals. aseve istoriulad rTulia eTnikuri umravlesobis urTierToba qurTul eTnikur jgufTan. es ukanaskneli 1991 wlidan aSS-is proteqtoratis qveS farTo avtonomiiT sargeblobs, hyavs sakuTari armia da awarmoebs damoukidebel sagareo vaWrobas, maT Soris, upirveles yov-lisa, energoresursebis sferoSi.

xsenebuli istoriuli dapirispirebebis ukiduresad gamwvavebul formas warmoadgens dRevandeli krizisi, rom-lis ukanaskneli fazac jer kidev sadam huseinis mmarT-velobis dros daiwyo, roca am ukanasknelma sakuTari, e.w. sunitur-sekularuli politikuri Zalis sasargeblod Za-ladobrivi formiT, mTlianad CamoaSora politikur cxovre-bas Siituri umravlesoba da qurTuli eTnikuri umciresoba, romelTa interesebic, yvelafris Sedegad, sruliad ugule-belyofili iyo.

arsebuli krizisis gamomwvevi mizezebi

rogorc ukve aRiniSna, erayis dRevandeli krizisis umTavresi safuZveli Siitebsa da sunitebs Soris istori-uli dapirispirebaa, Tumca Cvens amocanas ar warmoadgens am konfliqtis istoriuli wiaRsvlebis ganxilva. CvenTvis sain-teresoa im faqtorebis warmoCena, romlebmac bolo aTwleu-

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lis manZilze xeli Seuwyo ukanaskneli mwvave fazis ganviTa-rebas im formiT da im SemdagenlobiT, rogoriTac es ivnisSi daiwyo.

umTavresad saxeldeba aSS-is 2003 wels dawyebuli saxme leTo operacia, romlis Sedegadac sadam huseini Ca-moaSores xelisuflebas da sabolood sikvdiliT dasajes. amerikelTa intervenciis Semdeg politikuri suraTi eraySi diametrulad Seicvala diskriminaciis obieqtis Tvalsaz-risiT. Tu manamde es iyo sunitTa diqtatura, axla xelisuf-lebaSi movidnen Siitebi, romelTa mmarTvelobis forma di-dad ar gansxvavdeboda winamorbedi mTavrobisagan da axali xelisuflebis pirobebSi politikur devnas da Seviwroe-bas axla ukve sunitebi ganicdidnen. metic, sadam huseini sikvdiliT dasajes 2006 wlis 30 dekembers, im dRes, rodesac sunitebi aRniSnavdnen eid al-madhis (msxverplSewirvis dRe-saswauli) dResaswaulis dawyebas, romelic aseve cnobilia yurban bairamis saxeliT. Sesabamisad, sikvdiliT dasjis faq-ti amerikelebma waxalisebul Siitur SurisZiebad aRiqves, romelic qilikis elementebs atarebda.

Tavis mxriv, uaRresad mniSvnelovania, rom amerikeleb-ma ver moaxerxes erayis kampaniis wamowyebis mizezis gamyareba. sadamis mTavrobas ar aRmoaCnda e.w. masobrivi ganadgurebis iaraRi. aseve cxadi gaxda, rom buSis administracias ar hqon-da moqmedebis grZelvadiani strategia, romlis Sesabamisa-dac moxdeboda sadamis mTavrobis Canacvleba erayelTaTvis misaRebi im politikuri ZaliT, romelic ar moaxdenda Za-lauflebis uzurpacias erTi konkretuli religiuri jgu-fis mier da ris safuZvelzec moxerxdeboda efeqtiani da, rac mTavaria, Sesabamisad avtoritetuli saxelmwifo insti-tutebis Camoyalibeba. es aucilebeli iyo, rom ar darCenil-iyo sivrce araformaluri gasamxedroebuli religiuri in-stituciebisaTvis mosaxleobis ndobis mosapoveblad da rom bolosdabolos Camoyalibebuliyo erTiani erayuli saxelm-wifo.

amerikelTa erayidan gamosvlac aseve Secdomad iTv-leba, im faqtoris gaTvaliswinebiT, rom usafrTxoebis uz-runvelyofa daekisra erayis araefeqtian armias, romelic amerikuli SeiaraRebis garda armiis sxva niSans ar atarebs.

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aRiniSneba, rom miuxedavad amerikelTa survilisa, samxed-roebis garkveuli jgufi darCeniliyo eraySi adgilobrivTa dasaxmareblad, ver moxerxda am sakiTxis erayis xelisufle-basTan SeTanxmeba, ris Semdegac 2011 wels amerikelebma da-toves teritoria.

mniSvnelovan faqtors warmoadgens erayis socialur-ekonomikuri mdgomareoba. metic, calkeuli analitikosebi socialur problemebs ukavSireben sazogadoebis garkveuli fenebis radikalizacias. energoresursebiT simdidris miuxe-davad, korufciis done da resursebze wvdomis eqskluzi-uroba ganapirbebs, rom mosaxleobis sakmaod didi nawili siRaribis zRvars qvemoT cxovrobs.

bunebrivia, mniSvnelovania aseve regionuli konteqs-ti. rogorc ukve vTqviT, erayi aris sunitTa da SiitTa da-pirispirebis erT-erTi umTavresi fronti. sadamis damxo-bam regionSi Siitebis poziciebi gaamyara, ra Tqma unda, pirvel rigSi, iranisa, rac bunebrivia iwvevs saudis arabe-Tis gaRizi anebas. bevrs saubroben imaze, rom, sul mcire, calkeuli pirebi arabuli qveynebidan materialur daxmare-bas ugzavnian radikalur dajgufebebs. aseve mniSvnelovania siriis konfliqti, romlis gaWianurebamac saSualeba misca al-yaidasTan afilirebul jgufebs Cabmuliyvnen arsebul dapirispirebaSi da seriozuli gavlenac moexdinaT mis mim-dinareobaze. maT Soris erT-erTi iyo e.w. islamuri saxelm-wifo. aRiniSneba, rom msgavsi jgufebis gaZlierebas Tavis mxriv xeli Seuwyo baSar asadis xelisuflebamac. man cixida-nac ki gaaTavisufla garkveuli pirebi, romlebic dakavSire-buli iyvnen al-yaidasTan. msgavsi qmedebiT asadma moaxerxa opoziciis marginalizacia da aseve erTmaneTs daupirispira sakuTari radikaluri da e.w. gawonasworebuli oponentebi. Sedegad, dasavleTi dadga dilemis winaSe _ xelisuflebaSi radikaluri teroristuli jgufebis mosvlis alternativa iyo baSar asadis garkveuli droiT SenarCuneba. sabolood, rogorc ukve vTqviT, siriis konfliqtis gaxangrZlivebam xeli Seuwyo meamboxe jgufebis gaZlierebas, rogorc ada-mianuri resursiT, ise materialur-teqnikuri saSualebebiT.

unda aRiniSnos kidev erTi komponenti _ Tavad am sivrcis sakraluri mniSvneloba. islamuri arawerilobiTi

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tradiciiT, Sami (arab. CrdiloeTi), anu meqasa da medinas CrdiloeTiT mdebare sivrce, igive levante, palestinisa da Tanamedrove siriis teritoria, iTvleba im wminda miwad, sa-dac meored unda movides alahis udidesi mociquli isa da sadac am droisaTvis Tavi unda moiyaros yvela muslimma. es sakiTxi sxvadasxva regionSi moqmedi radikaluri dajgufe-bebisTvis siriaSi brZolis sawarmoebel erT-erT mniSvnelo-van komponentad ganixileba. aRsaniSnavia, rom al-Sami aseve eraysac moicavs.

`islamuri saxelmwifo~ da erayis amboxebulTa moZraoba

2014 wlis ivnisSi dawyebuli krizisis mTavari monawile aris sunituri radikaluri moZraoba e.w. erayisa da al-Samis islamuri saxelmwifo. krizisis dawyebis daaxloebiT erTi Tvis Tavze organizaciam ganacxada saxalifos Seqmnis Sesa-xeb da amis Semdeg sakuTar Tavs mokled `islamur saxelmwi-fod~ moixseniebs, xolo, rogorc ukve vTqviT, sakuTar lid-ers, abu baqr al-baRdadis, xalif ibrahims uwodebs. 5 ivliss gamoqveynda video, sadac es ukanaskneli mimarTavs muslimebs, yvela qveyanaSi morCileba gamoucxadon axlad arCeul xali-fas da saxalifos gansamtkiceblad da gasafarToeb lad ebr-Zolon urwmunoebsa da moRalateebs. gansakuTrebiT ki brZo-la unda gaZlierdes wminda ramadanis TveSi, romelic 28 ivniss daiwyo.

xsenebuli organizacia ukve Sefasda, rogorc region-Si yvelaze gavleniani, kargad organizebuli, kargad dafinan-sebuli da kargad SeiaraRebuli. aRiniSneba, rom organizacia gamoirCeva brZolisa da mowinaaRmdegesTan mopyrobis sasti-ki meTodebiT.

xsenebul organizacias safuZveli Caeyara 2003 wels, rodesac daiwyo amboxebulTa moZraoba amerikelebisa da Siituri xelisuflebis winaaRmdeg, sadam huseinis reJimis cvli lebis Semdeg. Tavdapirvelad mas ewodeboda tauxidisa da jihadis dajgufeba da xelmZRvanelobda warmoSobiT ior-danieli abu musab al-zarqavi, romelic maleve gaxda aSS-is `nomer pirveli mteri~. 2004 wels organizaciam sakuTari Tavi daukavSira al-yaidas da mas Semdeg mas „al-yaida eraySi“

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ewoda. 2006 wels, misi sikvdilis Semdeg, organizacias ewoda `erayis islamuri saxelmwifo~, lideri ki gaxda abu umar al-baRdadi. misi sikvdilis Semdeg, 2010 wels, jgufis lideri gaxda abu baqr al-baRdadi, romelsac jgufis wevrebi dRei-saTvis xalifad moixsenieben. misi liderobis dros orga-nizaciam ganacxada sakuTari saerTaSoriso pretenziebis Sesa xeb, miuxedavad imisa, rom misi avtoriteti Tavdapirve-lad damyarebuli iyo mis erayul warmomavlobaze, misi wina-morbedebisagan gansxvavebiT, romlebmac e.w. ucxotomelobis gamo ver moaxerxes msgavsi ndobis mopoveba amboxebulTa So-ris, rac organizaciis avtoritetzec aisaxeboda.

2011 wels organizacia CaerTo siriis konfliqtSi, mi-iRo ra monawileoba siriuli radikaluri jgufis, al-nus-ras, frontis CamoyalibebaSi. rogorc asaxeleben frontis lideri abu muhamad al-julani swored al-baRdadim gagzavna siriaSi. mogvianebiT maT Soris ganxeTqileba moxda. al-nusra darCa al-yaidasTan afilirebul jgufad, xolo al-baRdadis dajgufeba ki Riad daupirispirda aiman al-zavahiris, al-yaidas liders. amJamad nusras fronti sakmaod Seviwroebu-lia da siriaSi amboxebulTa teritoriaze viTarebas erayuli jgufi akontrolebs.

is, rogorc ukve vTqviT, sakamod kargad aris Seiara-Rebuli. metic, organizaciam ivnisis bolos siriis qalaq raqaSi gamarTa e.w. samxedro aRlumi, sadac gamoiyvana saku-Tari mZime teqnika, romelic samTavrobo ZalebTan brZolis Sedegad moipova. rogorc cnobilia, mosulis da tikritis aRebisas erayis saxelmwifo samxedro formirebebma miato-ves samxedro teqnikac da iaraRic. erayis xelisuflebam ukve daadastura, rom jgufi akontrolebs erayis qimiuri iaraRis yofil bazas, sadac gasanadgureblad iyo gamzadebuli za-riniT datvirTuli aseulobiT qobina. miuxedavad imisa, rom amerikeli da erayeli specialistebi, nivTierebisa da iaraRis kondiciidan gamomdinare, gamoricxaven xsenebuli qimiuri iaraRis gamoyenebis SesaZleblobas, Semdgomi dakvirvebisa da SeSfoTebis sagans warmoadgens is faqti, rom amboxebulebma bazidan gaitanes garkveuli teqnikuri aRWurviloba.

specialistebi amboben, rom `islamur saxelmwifos~ aqvs yvela msgavs organizaciaze ukeTesi finansuri siste-

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ma, dawesebuli aqvs gadasaxadebi sakuTar kontrolirebad teritoriaze, eraysa da siriaSi navTobmompovebel qarxnebs akontrolebs da misi Semosavlis garkveul nawils warmoad-gens adamianTa gatacebis sanacvlod miRebuli gamosasyide-bi. garkveuli informaciiT, mosulis aRebisas organizaciam qalaqSi arsebuli bankebidan daaxloebiT naxevari miliardi dolaris miTviseba moaxerxa. saubroben aseve Semowirulo-bebze sparseTis yuris sunituri saxelmwifoebidan, Tumca, rogorc eqspertebi amboben, es organizaciis Semosavlebis 5 procentze mets ar Seadgens. zogadad, araoficialuri in-formaciiT, maTi aqtivebi 2 miliard amerikul dolars aWar-bebs.

bunebrivia, zedmetia saubari organizebulobasa da Sinagan simtkiceze. maT sakmaod mokle xanSi moaxerxes sak-maod vrcel teritorias dauflebodnen eraysa da siriaSi. maTi kontroli imdenad mtkicea, rom al-baRdadi ar erideba meCeTSi misvlas da RmrTismsaxurebis gamarTvas. is sruliad moulodnelad gaxda sajaro piri. misi mimarTva ar hgavda amboxebulTa lideris Cveul gamosvlas konspiraciuli sivr-cidan, piriqiT, man muslimebs sruliad konkretuli adgili-dan, qalaq mosulis jamedan mimarTa, rac mniSvnelovani iyo imis dasafiqsireblad, rom is xalifaa da ara ubralod mebr-ZolTa lideri. is aris politikuri da religiuri lideric, romelsac SeuZlia RmrTismsaxurebis Catarebac. saxalifos gamocxadeba aseve niSnavda garkveulwilad dapirispirebas yvela sxva islamur radikalur da araradikalur gaerTiane-basTan. al-baRdadim mouwoda yvela muslims daemorCilos mas. rogorc xalifas da, aseve, rogorc politikoss Seefe-reba, iTxova gaakritikon da rCeva ar daiSuron im SemTx-vevaSi, Tu raime SeeSleba. organizacia sakuTari saqmianobis gasaSuqeblad efeqturad iyenebs socialuri mediis sivrces. ucnobia organizaciis wevrTa zusti raodenoba. dasaxelebu-li iyo daaxloebiT 10000-15000 adamiani, Tumca, savaraudod, am etapze maTi raodenoba kvlavac izrdeba.

Tavad al-baRdadis Sesaxeb am dromde cota ram iyo cnobili. gavrcelebuli informaciiT, mas aqvs baRdadis universitetis doqtoris xarisxi da 2003 wlamde eweoda saRmrTismsaxuro praqtikas, ris Semdegac SeuerTda am-

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boxebulTa moZraobas. 2006 wels amerikelebma daapatimres da sasjels ixdida wamebis skandaliT cnobil buqas cixeSi, eraySi, saidanac 2009 wels gaaTavisufles. rogorc aRiniSne-ba, zustad cixeSi sxva amboxebulebTan urTierTobisas moxda misi ukiduresi radikalizacia. sajarod cnobili iyo misi mxolod ori fotosuraTi.

mniSvnelovania aRiniSnos, rom eraySi xelisuflebis winaaRmdeg amboxebaSi mxolod es erTi dajgufeba ar iRebs monawileobas. maTi garkveuli nawili, Tavis mxriv, dapiris-pirebulia erayisa da Samis islamur saxelmwifosTan, e.w. sax-alifosTan. rogorc wesi, msxvili jgufebi, mag.: jamaaT ansar al-islami, naqSbandis wesis damcvelTa armia, erayis islamu-ri armia da sxv., upirispirdebian al-baRdadis dajgufebas da Siituri xelisuflebis damarcxebis saqmeSi sakuTar wvlils aRniSnaven, Tumca maTi dajgufebebidan garkveuli nawili ukve SeuerTda `saxalifos~. aseve al-baRdadis morCileba gamoucxades mcirericxovanma suniturma dajgufebebma.

amis garda, sirielma amboxebulebma ganacxades, rom veRar axerxeben winaaRmdegoba gauwion `saxalifos~ Semote-vas da, savaraudod, danebeba mouwevT.

safrTxeebi da gamowvevebi

umTavres safrTxed unda ganvixiloT Siitebisa da sunitebis ufro farTomasStabiani dapirispireba, rasac aR-mosavleTmcodneebi ar gamoricxaven. oficialuri Teirani iribad ukve monawileobs arsebul dapirispirebaSi. is cdi-lobs SeaiaraRos erayis Siituri mTavroba, maT Soris _ samxed ro TiTmfrinavebiT da instruqtorebiTac. gavrcelda iranis liderTa gancxadebac, rom irani daicavs eraySi arse-bul Siitur siwmindeebs. miuxedavad imisa, rom erayis suli-erma liderma, aiaTola al sisTanim, mouwoda erayis yvela mcxovrebs SeebrZolos amboxebulebs, es mainc gaiges, ro-gorc mowodeba Siitebis mimarT, gaibrZolon sunitebis wi-naaRmdeg. marTalia, oficialurad arabuli saxelmwifoebi ar emxrobian sunit amboxebulebs da, metic, iordania arsebul viTarebas ganixilavs uSualod sakuTari saxelmwifos winaSe arsebul safrTxed, radgan iordania saxeldeba amboxebulTa

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Semdgom samizned, bevrs saubroben saudis arabeTis dain-teresebaze, rogorc iranis istoriuli mopaeqrisa regionSi.

saxalifos gamocxadeba seriozul gamowvevad unda mi-viCnioT regionis usafrTxoebisaTvis, radgan es cxadyofs, rom organizaciis miznebi mniSvnelovnad scildeba erayisa da siiriis sazRvrebs. bevri ram iqneba damokidebuli ima-ze, Tu rogor SeZlebs erayi dasavlel partniorebTan er-Tad, pirvel rigSi ki, ra Tqma unda, aSS-sTan erTad, upa-suxos amboxebulebs, radgan yoveli axali dRe mniSvnelovnad aZlierebs organizacias, rogorc materialurad, ise adami-anuri resursiT. mxolod efeqtur da swraf sapasuxo moq-medebebs SeuZlia e.w. saxalifos Camoyalibebis ideis devalva-cia, rac sakmaod momxibvlelad Cans radikalurad ganwyobil muslimebSi.

Tavis mxriv, ukve SeiZleba iTqvas, rom im SemTxvevaSic ki, Tu moxerxdeba xsenebuli jgufis iZuleba, daubrundes e.w. iatakqveSeTs, konfliqti mainc sakmaod xangrZlivmoqmed procesad unda davinaxoT, romelic, savaraudod, gagrZel-deba mravalricxovani teroristuli aqtebis TanxlebiT, maT Soris, misi axlandeli georafiidan sakmaod moSorebiTac. cnobilia, rom amboxebulebSi mravlad arian dasavluri war-moSobis radikalizebuli muslimebi. ar gamoricxaven, rom maTi nawili mainc ecdeba konfliqtis dasrulebis Semdeg an Tundac misi mimdinareobis garkveul etapze dabrundes sam-SobloSi da iq gaagrZelos sakuTari saqmianoba, rac, buneb-rivia, fasdeba, rogorc safrTxe dasavluri saxelmwifoebi-saTvis.

ra Tqma unda, safrTxis Semcvelia is faqtic, rom process sakmaod grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi xedavs Tavad am-boxebulTa organizaciac. SeSfoTebas iwvevs kadrebi, sadac aCveneben, Tu ideologiurad rogor amzadeben 10-12 wlis bavSvebs brZolisTvis. maT nawils, rogorc Cans, zrdian moZ-raobis momaval liderebad, romlebmac kargad unda icod-nen amboxebulTa religiur safuZvlebze dayrdnobili ideo-logia, xolo meore ufro did nawils, savaraudod, zrdian mebr Zolebad da SesaZloa e.w. cocxal bombebadac ki, radgan kadrebSi maTi saxe dafarulia. Sesabamisad, savaraudoa, rom pirvel nawilSi aris is momavali Taoba, romelic daaxloebiT

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10-15 wlis Semdeg Caudgeba saTaveSi arsebul moZraobas da romelic albaT iqneba metad radikaluri da brutaluric, xolo meore nawili sakuTar TavSi atarebs aseve mniSvnelo-van gamowvevas mTeli dasavluri kulturuli cnobierebi-saTvis. maTi saxiT, bunebrivia, dasavluri armiis mebrZoli iqneba mudmivi fsiqologiuri wnexis qveS, radgan mouwevs mci rewlovani TviTmkvleli teroristebis winaaRmdeg brZo-la. am konteqstSi amboxebulebi floben sakmaod mniSvnelo-van fsiqologiur upiratesobas.

seriozul gamowvevad rCeba konsensusis aucilebloba erayis SigniT. eqspertTa didi nawili miiCnevs, rom xsenebu-li krizisis Sedegad savaraudod moxdeba erayis gayofa sam _ Siitur, sunitur da qurTul _ nawilad. bunebrivia, qurTebi maqsimalurad ecdebian damoukidebeli saxelmwifos Seqmnis arsebuli SesaZlebloba xelidan ar gauSvan. maT moaxerxes daecvaT sakuTari avtonomia `islamuri saxelmwifos~ agre-siisagan. aseve daamyares kontroli sadavo qalaq kirkukze, romelic avtonomiis mosazRvred mdebareobs. aqve aRsaniSna-via, rom maTi damoukidebeloba ar Sedis arc erTi mosazRvre saxelm wifos ineteresebSi, radgan qurTebi, rogorc cno-bilia, saxloben regionis oTxi saxelmwifos _ irani, erayi, TurqeTi da siria _ mezobel regionebSi da Sesabamisad, aman SeiZleba yvela zemoxsenebul saxelmwiofoSi gamoiwvios msgav si moZraobis gaaqtiurieba.

gamowvevas warmoadgens aseve farTo gagebiT koali-cia. arsebuli krizisis daZleva da amboxebulTa damarcxeba istoriulad konkurenti saxelmwifoebis interesebSi Sedis. TiTqos gaCnda irans, aSS-s, TurqeTs da iordanias Soris garkveuli kooperaciis SesaZlebloba da, metic, garkveul ganlagebaSi SeiZleba israelic warmovidginoT, romelmac ganacxada, rom mzad aris daxmareba aRmouCinos iordanias, romelTanac aqvs samSvidobo xelSekruleba, im SemTxvevaSi, Tu es ukanaskneli amgvari TxovniT mimarTavs da Tu iorda-niis saxelmwifoebriobas mniSvnelovani safrTxe Seeqmneba.

mimdinare krizisi aZlierebs regionSi ruseTis poziciebs. man ukve miyida erayis mTavrobas samxedro TviTm-frinavebi da, Sesabamisad, uzrunvelyofs erays aviaciis ins-truqtorebiT. amgvarad is cdilobs isargeblos dasavleTis

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Seyovnebuli reaqciiT da garkveuli niSa daikavos axlo aR-mosavleTSi. ruseTi aseve ecdeba, sul mcire, gaaZlieros sa-kuTari poziciebi kavkasiaSi, rac, bunebrivia, safrTxis Sem-cveli iqneba saqarTvelosTvisac. savaraudoa, rom krizisis Semdgomi gaRrmavebisa da gaxangrZlivebis SemTxvevaSi, ru-seTi Seecdeba gamoiyenos is kavkasiis regionSi sakuTari samxed ro warmomadgenlobis gasaZliereblad da, SesaZloa, axali poziciebis dasakavebladac.

ruseTisaTvis aseve miuRebelia iranisa da dasavleTis realuri daaxloeba, radgan irani ganixileba ruseTis ener-gomatareblebis erT-erT seriozul alternativad. erayis krizisi aseve aferxebs am regionis energoresursebis stabi-lur miwodebas momxmarebelTaTvis, gansakuTrebiT _ dasav-leTisaTvis, rac, Tavis mxriv, Sedis rogorc ruseTis, ise sparseTis yuris arabuli saxelmwifoebis interesebSi. meo-re mxriv, im SemTxvevaSi, Tu dasavleTi moaxerxebs iranTan urTierTobis mowesrigebas, risi erT-erTi motivatoric, rogorc ukve vTqviT, SesaZloa es krizisic aRmoCndes, ruse-Ti ufro metad Seecdeba kavkasiuri energotranzitis kont-rolis xelSi Cagdebas. ruseTisaTvis aseve mniSvnelovania am etapze siriis xelisuflebaSi mis mimarT loialurad ganw-yobili baSar asadis SenarCuneba, rac SeiZleba erayis kon-fliqtma garkveuli droiT uzrunvelyos.

Cveni regionisaTvis safrTxis Semcvelad unda ganvixi-loT eraysa da siriaSi sabrZolvelad wasul pirTa sakuTar samSobloSi dabruneba. gasaTvaliswinebelia, rom maT Soris saqarTvelodan, pankisisi regionidan, ramdenime aTeuli ada-miani ibrZvis sxvadasxva radikalur islamur dajgufebaSi. maTi dabrunebis Semdeg saxelmwifos sazrunavi iqneba, sul mcire, maTi reabilitacia da resocializacia, rom aRaraferi vTqvaT garkveul SemTxvevebSi samarTlebriv devnasa da maT-gan mosalodnel meamboxe damokidebulebaze saqarTvelos saxelmwifos mimarT. bunebrivia, Crdilokavakasiel mebr-ZolTa dabruneba samSobloSi mniSvnelovnad gaaZlierebs am-boxebulTa rigebs, rac gaamwvavebs kavkasionis CrdiloeTiT arsebul met-naklebad minelebul konfliqts, romelic, ro-gorc araerTxel aRniSnes eqspertebmac, samxreT kavkasiisa-Tvis sakmao safrTxes Seicavs.

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sabolood unda iTqvas, rom yovelive zemoTqmulidan gamomdinare, mniSvnelovania is, Tu ra vadebSi moxerxdeba ad-ekvaturi pasuxis gacema xsenebul gamowvevebze. mniSvnelo-van xelSemwyob komponentad unda ganvixiloT Tavad sunit amboxebulebs Soris arsebuli dapirispireba erayis SigniT. bunebrivia, SeuZlebeli iqneba romelimes mxardaWera, magram aucilebelia al-yaidasa da `saxalifos~ Soris arsebuli da-pirispirebis gamoyeneba. Tu mieca SesaZlebloba al-baRdadis mebrZolebs sakuTari warmateba gaaxangrZlivon, es ganapiro-bebs al-yaidasTan afilirebuli jgufebis maTken mimxrobas da piriqiT. samwuxaroa, rom Tavad erayis SigniT saxalifos mowinaaRmdegeebic ver axerxeben konsolidirebas da metic, piriqiT, sul ufro metad izrdeba maT Soris arsebuli da-pirispireba. am procesSi kvlavindeburad umniSvnelovanesia dasavleTis swrafi da adekvaturi pasuxi, Tumca aRsaniSnavia, rom amjerad maT mouwevT mravali faqtoris gaTvaliswineba, erT-erTi ki is aris, rom adgilobriv mosaxleobas ar surs gare Zalis xilva, Tundac maT mxardamWerad.

aqve unda aRiniSnos, rom krizisi dReisaTvis sul ufro Rrmavdeba. `islamuri saxelmwifo~ sakuTar poziciebs aZlierebs Tavisive kontrolirebad teritoriaze, romelsac Tavis mxriv afarToebs da misi avtoritetic ufro izrde-ba. meore mxriv, sul ufro meti aqtori aris mzad CaerTos krizisSi amboxebulTa dasamxobad. amdenad, konfliqts jer ar miuRwevia gardatexis fazisaTvis. am etapze rTulia imis Tqma, Tu rodis da rogor unda velodoT garkveuli pozi-tivis niSnebs erayis krizisSi. procesi kvlavac rCeba aqti-uri dakvirvebisa da Seswavlis obieqtad. erTi ram udavod cxadia, miuxedavad imisa, Tu rogori iqneba formalur ins-tituciaTa pasuxi amboxebulTa moqmedebebze, kidev didxans mogviwevs amboxebuli axlo aRmosavleTis yureba.

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gamoyenebuli literatura

revaz gaCeCilaZe - amerika erTaderTi saxelmwifoa, romlis interess war-moadgens yvelaferi, rac msoflios nebismier kuTxeSi xdeba - interviu interpresniusTanwww.interpressnews.ge/ge/interviu/287493-revaz-gachechiladze-amerika-erthaderthi-sakhelmtsifoa-romlis-interess-tsarmoadgens-yvelaferi-rac-msoflios-nebismier-kuthkheshi-khdeba.html

Бесконечность арабских революций Алексей Малашенко:www.carnegie.ru/2014/07/04/бесконечность-арабских-революций/hf6f

Боевики ИГИЛ заявили о создании халифата в Сирии и Ираке www.bbc.co.uk/russian/international/2014/06/140630_isis_iraq_islamic_state.shtml

Госсекретарь США Керри обещает помочь властям Ирака www.bbc.co.uk/russian/international/2014/06/140623_iraq_kerry_visit.shtml

Интересы России в Сирии Дмитрий Тренин www.carnegie.ru/2014/06/09/интересы-россии-в-сирии/hdt4

Ирак: Малики намерен включить в правительство суннитовwww.bbc.co.uk/russian/rolling_news/2014/06/140627_rn_iraq_government_isis.shtml

Ирак: Малики не намерен создавать правительство единстваwww.bbc.co.uk/russian/international/2014/06/140625_iraq_maliki_government_rejects.shtml

Иракский премьер Малики намерен идти на третий срокwww.bbc.co.uk/russian/international/2014/07/140704_iraq_maliki_elections.shtml

Иран поставил Ираку штурмовики СУ-25? Джонатан Маркусwww.bbc.co.uk/russian/international/2014/07/140702_iran_iraq_su25.shtml

Малики: Ирак предпочел российские самолеты американскимwww.bbc.co.uk/russian/international/2014/06/140626_iraq_maliki_russian_planes.shtml

Началась третья иракская война www.inopressa.ru/article/12Jun2014/foreignpolicy/iraq1.html

США и Иран готовы к переговорам по Ираку www.bbc.co.uk/russian/international/2014/06/140616_us_iran_iraq_talks.shtml

Al-Maliki hints at another try for Iraqi PM By Chelsea J. Carter and Mohammed Tawfeeq, CNNwww.edition.cnn.com/2014/07/04/world/meast/iraq-crisis/index.html?hpt=imi_c2

America Can’t Fix the Middle East, but It Can Fix Its Middle East Policy David Rothkopfwww.carnegieendowment.org/2014/06/23/america-can-t-fix-middle-east-but-it-can-fix-its-middle-east-policy/hee4

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Anger boils over in the ‘Fallujah of Jordan’ www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/07/anger-boils-over-fallujah-jor-dan-20147575130478577.html

Beware the Salesmen of Simple Solutions on Iraq Moisés Naímwww.carnegieendowment.org/2014/06/24/beware-salesmen-of-simple-solutions-on-iraq/heek

EU-Iran Relations: A Strategic Assessment Cornelius Adebahrwww.carnegieendowment.org/2014/06/23/eu-iran-relations-strategic-assessment/hea1

Floodgates open as ISIS takes over swath of Syrian-Iraqi border By Holly Yan and Samira Said, CNNwww.edition.cnn.com/2014/07/08/world/meast/syria-civil-war/index.html?hpt=imi_c2

How ISIS is overshadowing al Qaeda By Tim Lister, CNNwww.edition.cnn.com/2014/06/30/world/meast/isis-overshadows-al-qaeda/index.html?iid=article_sidebar

Iraq crisis: Kerry urges unity to expel Isis rebelswww.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27991414

Iraq crisis: Key players in Sunni rebellionwww.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28053496

Iraq militant groups ordered to swear Isis allegiance By Jim Muirwww.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28123258

Iraq Parliament to Start Talks on New Governmentwww.online.wsj.com/articles/iraq-parliament-to-elect-new-government-1403794106

Iraq to split in three: So why not? By Tim Lister, CNNwww.edition.cnn.com/2014/07/07/world/meast/iraq-division-lister/index.html?hpt=hp_c1

Iraq’s parliament fails to agree on formation of new government By Liz Sly and Loveday Morriswww.washingtonpost.com/world/iraqs-new-parliament-convenes-inaugural-session/2014/07/01/08f99008-6035-4fe6-89d0-f7bc6e9adf2d_story.html

ISIL: Rising power in Iraq and Syria Graeme Bakerwww.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/06/isi l-eminent-threat-iraq-syr-ia-20146101543970327.html

ISIS caliphate declaration of war against Al-Qaeda Written by : Asharq Al-Awsatwww.aawsat.net/2014/07/article55333843

Kerry assures Iraqis of U.S. support if they unite against militantswww.edition.cnn.com/2014/06/23/world/meast/iraq-crisis/index.html?hpt=imi_c1

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More Than ISIS, Iraq’s Sunni Insurgency Hassan Hassan www.carnegieendowment.org/sada/2014/06/17/more-than-isis-iraq-s-sunni-insurgency/hdvi

Muslim leaders reject Baghdadi’s caliphate Shafik Mandhai www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/07/muslim-leaders-reject-baghdadi-caliph-ate-20147744058773906.html

Negotiating the Turkish Hostage Situation in Iraq Bayram Balciwww.carnegieendowment.org/2014/06/23/negotiating-turkish-hostage-situation-in-iraq/hea4

Press Availability on Syria and Iraqwww.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2014/06/228327.htm

Saudi Arabia: Sandwiched by jihadists in Iraq and Yemen By Frank Gardnerwww.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28133086

Six things that went wrong for Iraq By Jonathan Marcuswww.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27802746

The fierce ambition of ISIL’s Baghdadi Graeme Bakerwww.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/06/fierce-ambition-isi l-baghda-di-2014612142242188464.html

The Rise of ISIS, a Golden Opportunity for Iraq’s Kurds Sirwan Kajjo www.carnegieendowment.org/sada/2014/06/19/rise-of-isis-golden-opportunity-for-iraq-s-kurds/he37

U.S. Foreign Policy on Syria and Iraq: Between Words and Actions Lina Khatibwww.carnegie-mec.org/2014/06/29/u.s.-foreign-policy-on-syria-and-iraq-between-words-and-actions/heso

Viewpoint: Isis caliphate a dangerous development By Charlie Cooperwww.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28090386

Viewpoint: ISIS goals and possible future gainswww.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27801680?print=true

Why the Middle East’s borders will never be the same again By Scott Anderson, war re-porter, special to CNNwww.edition.cnn.com/2014/06/20/opinion/middle-east-borders-redrawn/index.html?hpt=imi_r1

Will al Qaeda fight ISIS Islamic state? By Jonathan Russell, Special to CNNwww.edition.cnn.com/2014/07/02/opinion/isis-quilliam-opinion/index.html?hpt=imi_c2

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