environmental statistic
TRANSCRIPT
Year
T e m p e r a t u r e A n o m a l y
1900 1940 1980
Year
T e m p e r a t u r e A n o m a l y
1900 1940 1980
x x x x x
x x x xx x x x x x x
x xx x
x x
x x x x xx
x x x xx x x x x x x x xx x x
x xx x
x x x
Year
M e a n M i n T e m p
20 40 60 80
Reduced Value
O b s e r v e d V a l u e
-2 -1 0 1 2
10
15
20
Year
M e a n M a x T e m p
20 40 60 80
Reduced Value
O b s e r v e d V a l u e
-2 -1 0 1 2
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
Year
20 40 60 80
Reduced Value
O b s e r v e d V a l u e
-2 -1 0 1 2
2
4
6
8
Year
M e a n P r e c i p
20 40 60 80
Reduced Value
O b s e r v e d V a l u e
-2 -1 0 1 2
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
0.22
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(b)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(c)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(d)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(e)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(f)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(g)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(h)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(i)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
(j)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
(k)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(l)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(m)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(n)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(o)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
0
1
2
3
4
(b)
x
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
oo o
•
••
•
•
• •
•
•
•
•
•
•
• •
• •
•
• •
•
•
•
• •
• •
•
•
•
•
••
•
•
•
• •
• ••
• •
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
• •
•
• •
•
• •
• •
•
• •••
• •
••
• •
•
• •
• •
•
•
•
•
•
•• •
• •
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
• • •
••
•
• •
•
• •
• • • • • • •
• • • •
• • • • •
• • • •
• •
• •
•
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
2
4
0.0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
L
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
(b)
Shape
4 0
6 0
8 0
X 2 0
X 2 0
o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o
o o o o o
x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x
+ + + + +
+ + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
(c) MIDWEST
(b) MID-ATLANTIC
(d) SOUTHERN
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
oo
o
o
o
o
o
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
oo
o
o
o
o
o
30
35
40
45 •
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2 5
3 0
3 5
4 0
4 5
5 0
2 5
3 0
3 5
4 0
4 5
5 0
Longitude (degrees) -100 -90 -80 -70 -60
- 0 . 2
- 0 . 1
0 . 0
0 . 1
- 0 . 4
0 . 0
0 . 2
0 . 4
0 . 6
Distance (1 unit =36 km)
S e m i v a r i o g r a m V
a l u e s
0 10 20 30
Range = 1296 km
Predictive distributions
t o
0
5
d e
0
5
t
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
t
t
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
t
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
b d a
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
lambda/pi
0.05
0.10
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
lambda/pi
0.0005
0.0010
0.0050
0.0100
0.0500
0.1000
0.5000
0.0005
0.0010
0.0050
0.0100
0.0500
0.1000
0.5000
Num of ordinates
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
lambda/pi
0.0005
0.0010
0.0050
0.0100
0.0500
0.0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
lambda/pi
Num of ordinates
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
(a) NH residuals: Estimates of d and 95% confidence limit
Num of ordinates
(b) SH residuals: Estimates of d and 95% confidence limit
Num of ordinates
F a c
t o r
• •
•
• •
• •
•
• • • •
•
•
• •
•
•
•
•
• •
•
•
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
A B C D E F
• •
• • •
•
•
•• ••
• ••
•
•
•
•
• •
•
•
• • •
•
•
• •
•
• • •
•
• • •
•
•
•
•
•• •
•
•• • • •
•
••
•
••
•
•
•
••• • •
• •
•• •••
••
•
•
•
•
• • • •
•
•
•
• •
•
•
• •
•
•
••
•
•
•
Year
t u r e
l y
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
Year
t u r e
l y
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
Fitted Values
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3 •
Fitted Values
Fitted Values
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3 •
Fitted Values
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
Expected Values
d V a
Expected Values
d V a
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
-360
-350
-340
-330
40
50
60
70
80
RR
C
C
100
150
200
250
300
L i k e
d
-94
-93
-92
-91
-90
-89
d s
480
500
520
540
560
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
(b)
x_ult
220 224 228 232
d v a
0
1
2
3
4
d v a
0
1
2
3
4
d v a
0
1
2
3
4
5
d v a
0
1
2
3
4
5
d d a
100
150
200
250
300
d d a
d v a
l u e
-5
0
5
10
d v a
l u e
-5
0
5
10
0 100 200 300
0 50 100 150 200
0
50
100
150
200
d v a
l u e
d v a
l u e
0
5
10
15
20
M e a n e x c e s s
150 200 250 300 350
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
(b)
M e a n e x c e s s
260 300 340
M e a n e x c e s s
20 25 30 35 40 45 50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
M e a n e x c e s s
40 45 50 55
M e a n e x c e s s
40 45 50 55
M e a n e x c e s s
40 45 50 55
0
1
2
3
4
5
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
t m
M e a n e x c e s s
150 200 250 300 350
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
M e a n e x c e s s
40 60 80 100 120
20
25
30
35
M e a n e x c e s s
100 150 200 250 300
40
60
80
100
120
M e a n e x c e s s
200 300 400 500 600
100
150
200
d v a
0
1
2
3
4
5
d v a
d v a
0
1
2
3
4
5
d v a
d v a
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
d v a
d v a
0
2
4
6
d v a
T e m p e r a t u r e A n o m a l y
1900 1940 1980
Year
T e m p e r a t u r e A n o m a l y
1900 1940 1980
x x x x x
x x x xx x x x x x x
x xx x
x x
x x x x xx
x x x xx x x x x x x x xx x x
x xx x
x x x
Year
M e a n M i n T e m p
20 40 60 80
Reduced Value
O b s e r v e d V a l u e
-2 -1 0 1 2
10
15
20
Year
M e a n M a x T e m p
20 40 60 80
Reduced Value
O b s e r v e d V a l u e
-2 -1 0 1 2
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
Year
20 40 60 80
Reduced Value
O b s e r v e d V a l u e
-2 -1 0 1 2
2
4
6
8
Year
M e a n P r e c i p
20 40 60 80
Reduced Value
O b s e r v e d V a l u e
-2 -1 0 1 2
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
0.22
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(b)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(c)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(d)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(e)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(f)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(g)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(h)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(i)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
(j)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
(k)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(l)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(m)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(n)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(o)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
0
1
2
3
4
(b)
x
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
oo o
•
••
•
•
• •
•
•
•
•
•
•
• •
• •
•
• •
•
•
•
• •
• •
•
•
•
•
••
•
•
•
• •
• ••
• •
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
• •
•
• •
•
• •
• •
•
• •••
• •
••
• •
•
• •
• •
•
•
•
•
•
•• •
• •
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
• • •
••
•
• •
•
• •
• • • • • • •
• • • •
• • • • •
• • • •
• •
• •
•
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
2
4
0.0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
L
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
(b)
Shape
4 0
6 0
8 0
X 2 0
X 2 0
o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o o o o
o o o o o o o
o o o o o
x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x x
x x x x x x x x x
+ + + + +
+ + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
(c) MIDWEST
(b) MID-ATLANTIC
(d) SOUTHERN
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
oo
o
o
o
o
o
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
oo
o
o
o
o
o
30
35
40
45 •
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2 5
3 0
3 5
4 0
4 5
5 0
2 5
3 0
3 5
4 0
4 5
5 0
Longitude (degrees) -100 -90 -80 -70 -60
- 0 . 2
- 0 . 1
0 . 0
0 . 1
- 0 . 4
0 . 0
0 . 2
0 . 4
0 . 6
Distance (1 unit =36 km)
S e m i v a r i o g r a m V
a l u e s
0 10 20 30
Range = 1296 km
Predictive distributions
t o
0
5
d e
0
5
t
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
t
t
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
t
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
b d a
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
lambda/pi
0.05
0.10
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
lambda/pi
0.0005
0.0010
0.0050
0.0100
0.0500
0.1000
0.5000
0.0005
0.0010
0.0050
0.0100
0.0500
0.1000
0.5000
Num of ordinates
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
lambda/pi
0.0005
0.0010
0.0050
0.0100
0.0500
0.0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
lambda/pi
Num of ordinates
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
(a) NH residuals: Estimates of d and 95% confidence limit
Num of ordinates
(b) SH residuals: Estimates of d and 95% confidence limit
Num of ordinates
F a c
t o r
• •
•
• •
• •
•
• • • •
•
•
• •
•
•
•
•
• •
•
•
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
A B C D E F
• •
• • •
•
•
•• ••
• ••
•
•
•
•
• •
•
•
• • •
•
•
• •
•
• • •
•
• • •
•
•
•
•
•• •
•
•• • • •
•
••
•
••
•
•
•
••• • •
• •
•• •••
••
•
•
•
•
• • • •
•
•
•
• •
•
•
• •
•
•
••
•
•
•
Year
t u r e
l y
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
Year
t u r e
l y
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
Fitted Values
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3 •
Fitted Values
Fitted Values
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3 •
Fitted Values
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
Expected Values
d V a
Expected Values
d V a
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
-360
-350
-340
-330
40
50
60
70
80
RR
C
C
100
150
200
250
300
L i k e
d
-94
-93
-92
-91
-90
-89
d s
480
500
520
540
560
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
(b)
x_ult
220 224 228 232
d v a
0
1
2
3
4
d v a
0
1
2
3
4
d v a
0
1
2
3
4
5
d v a
0
1
2
3
4
5
d d a
100
150
200
250
300
d d a
d v a
l u e
-5
0
5
10
d v a
l u e
-5
0
5
10
0 100 200 300
0 50 100 150 200
0
50
100
150
200
d v a
l u e
d v a
l u e
0
5
10
15
20
M e a n e x c e s s
150 200 250 300 350
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
(b)
M e a n e x c e s s
260 300 340
M e a n e x c e s s
20 25 30 35 40 45 50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
M e a n e x c e s s
40 45 50 55
M e a n e x c e s s
40 45 50 55
M e a n e x c e s s
40 45 50 55
0
1
2
3
4
5
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
t m
M e a n e x c e s s
150 200 250 300 350
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
M e a n e x c e s s
40 60 80 100 120
20
25
30
35
M e a n e x c e s s
100 150 200 250 300
40
60
80
100
120
M e a n e x c e s s
200 300 400 500 600
100
150
200
d v a
0
1
2
3
4
5
d v a
d v a
0
1
2
3
4
5
d v a
d v a
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
d v a
d v a
0
2
4
6
d v a