environmental scan
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TRANSCRIPT
NMC
Environmental Scan2006
What is environmental scanning?
Environmental scanning has to do with external events, trends, and relationships that have
potential for impacting an organization.
The purpose of environmental scanning
is …
... to help organizations create a preferred future.
Purpose of the NMC scan
• to provide a cornerstone for NMC's strategic planning process
• to provide perspectives on NMC's operating environment
Purpose of the NMC scan
• to identify challenges and opportunities with potential for impacting NMC
• to create strategic advantage in NMC's changing marketplace
Components of NMC's environmental scan
1. Macro change forces affecting American society and NMC's environmental context
2. NMC constituent interviews3. NMC staff interviews4. Issues facing community colleges5. Focal Points for NMC
An important caveat
Answers describe the present;
questions define the future.
You are here
The macro scan
The macro scan provides information and implications
related to change forces that are having a significant impact on American society and NMC's
operating environment.
Future Scan categories
• Economics – the workplace, the workforce, and the exchange of value
Future Scan categories
• Demographics – vital human statistics
Future Scan categories
• Social Values & Lifestyles – the beliefs and behaviors of people
Future Scan categories
• Advances & Discoveries – machines, processes, and techniques which enhance or replace the human element
Future Scan categories
• Organizational Contexts – how people organize to relate, share, achieve, and compete
Future Scan categories
• Political Climate – the governing context in which people and organizations pursue their objectives
Future Scan categories
• Public Opinion – commonly held perceptions and understandings
Future Scan categories
• World Affairs – interactions of groups and nations which affect the political climate and world marketplace
Radical Change
• We are transitioning from a period of rapid change to one of radical change.
• Most change will be triggered by external forces.
Radical Change
• You can’t run from it.• You can’t hide from it.• And two of our tested strategies –
running faster and working harder – can be strategies of diminishing returns.
The changing nature of the workforce
• More than one-half of Americans work full-time.
• The educational attainment level of the workforce continues to increase.
The changing nature of the workforce
• The gap between the unemployment rates of those without a high school diploma and those who have completed college continues to increase.
The changing nature of the workforce
• Only about one-fourth of workers displaced from their jobs find full time work that pays at least what their previous job paid.
The changing nature of the workforce
• Six of the ten industries projected to grow the fastest are health related, and three are computer related.
• Employment is down in jobs that can be automated or performed with lower labor costs.
Implications
• Employers will seek quality, short term relationships with workers.
• To effectively compete in the global marketplace, employers will pressure workers to reduce their salary and fringe benefit costs.
Implications
• Two education-related markets will expand: 1. workforce development and training to accommodate the changing nature of work2. continuing education of the already educated
Implications for NMC
• Community college enrollments typically expand as unemployment levels increase.
Implications for NMC
• NMC should assess how it can effectively and efficiently serve more markets that are smaller.
Implications for NMC
• NMC should assess the market for continuously enhancing the capacity of those who already hold college credentials.
Aging of the Population
• We are getting older – average life expectancy is about 78 years.
• A 65 year old male can expect to live 17 more years; a 65 year old female can expect to live 20 more years.
Aging of the Population
• People ages 84-95 make up the fastest growing demographic group in America.
• Some forecasters say that people may live as long as trees by mid-century.
Some implications
• Social, medical, and infrastructure expenditures will increase.
• Fountain of Youth products proliferate
• More people will think about their exercising and consumption lifestyles.
Some more implications
• Retirement will be redefined.• Economics will provide dynamic
resistance to social and political entitlements.
• The aging of society will profoundly affect enrollment, staffing, and community support.
Machines
• Machines are getting smaller … and much smarter.
• Most communication that takes place is now between machines.
• The convergence of computers and biology holds promise of machines that can think.
Three implications
• Manufacturing, as we have known it, will be revolutionized.
• Fewer human workers will be needed.
• More non-machine work will be done by lower paid employees—wherever they live.
Knowledge work
The continuum
data – information – knowledge – wisdom
Two implications
• Fewer people will have meaningful work.
• There will always be a job, says Pulitzer Prize-winning author Thomas Friedman in The World Is Flat, for those who are special, specialized, anchored, and really adaptable.
Communication Technology
We will move information at the speed of light, and we will be “connected” 24/7/365.
Three implications
• People will be pushed to make more decisions in increasingly shorter periods of time.
• People's thinking won’t be as good as it used to be.
• People will long to be “disconnected.”
Public Opinion
Shaped primarily by the media and blogs, public opinion will become more diverse and more volatile.
Two implications
• More ideas and solutions will find simultaneous favor and disfavor.
• Anyone can be an activist, and one person can appear to be a groundswell of 100,000 or a million … or more.
Education
As always, education be the key to the future.
But not education as we know it!
One implication
• Learning will be delivered in nontraditional ways in nontraditional places at nontraditional times by nontraditional teachers to nontraditional students.
Boundary Breaking
Geographic, political, and organizational boundaries are becoming increasingly meaningless.
Three BIG implications
• The domination of world economics and politics will change.
• Different cultures will have to agree onthe values necessary for a civilized world.
• The global economy will define the powerof nations, and determine the nature of work and the quality of life everywhere.
NMC Constituent Scan
Addressing technology needs is a concern of business leaders throughout the region.
NMC Constituent Scan
Recruiting highly skilled technical
people to the Grand Traverse region is
proving difficult.
NMC Constituent Scan
The majority of constituents interviewed believe Michigan is in
decline.
NMC Constituent Scan
Constituents are concerned with the
region's growth, and the lack of cooperation
and coordination that is needed to manage it.
NMC Constituent Scan
Issues affecting the region arepolarizing the constituency, and little
is being done to host meaningful
discussions that address important issues.
NMC Constituent Scan
Educational systems in the area must
address globalization, particularly in regard
to teaching students foreign languages.
NMC Constituent Scan
The region must take action to capitalize on its geographic location
and water resources while assuring
safeguards for the environment.
NMC Constituent Scan
Demographic and economic changes
impacting the area are testing established
political entities.
NMC Constituent Scan
Successes related to tourism
seem to have blinded area leaders to
other opportunities that have potential for
enhancing the region.
NMC Constituent Scan
One consequence of NMC's responsiveness to the community is
that some community members perceive
the College as spreading itself too thin
and compromising its primary mission.
NMC Staff Scan
There are opportunities for NMC in
areas ranging from water resources to the
arts to providing support for area entrepreneurs.
NMC Staff Scan
Michigan is perceived by NMC staff
as a State that may not have the political
capacity to "turn things around."
NMC Staff Scan
The immediate challenges to Michigan
and the Traverse City area are education, the
economy, and workforce capacity.
NMC Staff Scan
The central issues facing area governments are managing growth
while protecting the environment and the
quality of life in the area.
NMC Staff Scan
NMC has a good reputation and
is well positioned to take a leadership role
in the community.
NMC Staff Scan
NMC staff members believe that the
College is enhancing its capacity to lead in
both the political and educational arenas.
NMC Staff Scan
NMC staff members believe the College
should be a significant partner in workforce
development and community enhancement.
NMC Staff Scan
NMC staff members feel "let down"
by Michigan's political process.
Community College Scan
Increases in tuition costs, decreases in
Pell Grant funding, and the growth of private student loans are three forces impacting community colleges.
Community College Scan
There are obstacles preventing community college students from
seamlessly transferring to four-year institutions.
Community College Scan
Community college expenditures for
remediation are increasing. (Remediation
now costs community colleges $50 million
annually in Michigan.)
Community College Scan
More consumers of education are becoming "consumers of the whole [of education]."
Community College Scan
Community colleges need to question
the long-term future of an Associate's Degree
in an environment where a Bachelor's Degree
is increasingly considered the entry level credential.
Community College Scan
Community colleges need to assessthe viability of their basic operating
model (a place-based, community-focused institution providing comprehensive programming leading to an Associate's Degree).
Community College Scan
The target markets for community
colleges are shifting as the middle class
shrinks and the gap between the rich and
the poor continues to widen.
Community College Scan
Open access—a community college
success story—has diversified the classroom
and placed instructors at the front line in a
continuing effort to help all students succeed.
Community College Scan
Community colleges must be more
open to change and guard against solving
new problems with old solutions.
NMC Focal Points
NMC must clearly articulate its vision.
NMC Focal Points
NMC must strive to be a leader in the
delivery of quality learning using technology
and flexible scheduling.
NMC Focal Points
NMC must continue educating legislators in regard to the purpose
and value of community colleges.
NMC Focal Points
NMC should consider positioning itself
as the training arm of every area business.
NMC Focal Points
Within the scope of the College's mission, partnerships with area
organizations and businesses should be expanded.
NMC Focal Points
NMC should investigate how instruction
can be embedded in the workplace to better
serve employees and employers.
NMC Focal Points
NMC should consider developing a
rapid response team to address inquiries
from potential customers.
NMC Focal Points
NMC should focus its identity.
NMC Focal Points
NMC should continue its pursuit of
coherent articulation agreements with four-
year institutions.
NMC Focal Points
"Anything to do with water" andnanotechnology applications are two
areasripe for NMC risk-taking and
innovation.
An important thought
... about entropy and the Second Law of Thermodynamics
An important thought
Entropy is the degradation of the matter and energy in the universe to an ultimate state of inert uniformity.
Entropy represents the potential for doing work, the capacity for taking action, or the degree of confusion and disorder associated with any physical or information activity.
An important thought
The Second Law of Thermodynamics posits that all observed natural processes generate entropy.
Entropy will increase in any system that cannot communicate in an ordered fashion with other systems or environments external to itself.
An important thought
And, so, to comprehend and cope with our environment, we must continually challenge our concepts of reality.
Adapted from Col. John Boyd in Destruction and
Creation (1976) in Boyd: The fighter pilot who changed the art of war
(Coram, 2002)
An important caveat
Answers describe the present;
questions define the future.