environmenta & technology futures

8/3/2019 Environmenta & Technology Futures

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Andrew Robinson

March 8 2011

Environment & Technology Futures


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Economic Environment &

Global Context


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Canadas Endogenous Barriers to Increasing

Innovative Products & Services as a

proportion of National Output

Efficient adaptation strategy that favours

commodity production

Market structure that discourages competition

based on technology leadership

Competition policy that allows market leaders to

set the innovation pace.

Government programs designed for S&T ratherthan innovation policy.

(Source: Stanley, Cardwells Law)


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Two Approaches to Completing

Stimulus Summary Track Templates Top-Down (Harder) Working with little

detailed data right to the answer

Produce a time track mindmap like my examplefor Virtualisation- if you dont have mindmap--

use a word hierarchy or paper and shoot with

camera

Converge the key productised events into thestimulus summary matrix [this is the very hard

step]


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Two Approaches to Completing

Summary Template Bottom-Up (Easier) More Detail to Less

Complete a spreadsheet as was done for Health,

Medical Bio by Marcus Converge Your Key event track up into the

summary matrix

For the intensive info analytic enthusiasts

do both:) and see how the results compare?


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Soldier Systems (IC) Technology Readiness Level


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See Attached Soldier Systems Examples for

Emerging Technologies and Power Tracks

Emerging Technologies- SSRM1-4.pdf

Power Related Technologies

SSP3.pdf Storage Battery Tech SSP4.pdf Management

SSP5.pdf Fuel Cells

We should be mapping only

technologies/environment events at a TRL8-9level for the 2017/2040 timepoints on each of

our stimulus summary matrices. I much prefer

use of the Cell Platform Commercialisation


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Cell Commercialisation Lifecycle


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Top -Down Path


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Virtual Tracks


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Massive infrastructure costs to migrate

etween 2011-2020 (5B estimate for

Government of Canada) forces

consolidation to global regional data

centres from national level for scale

eeded to be green.

After a brief period 2009-2010 of

roprietorisation of mobile phones, tablet,

aper, book readers and remote projectors

ecomestandardised globally.

3. Networks

IP4->IP6

WirelessBroadband

Relative importance (life cost) of

information storage has increased in

system cost due to growth. Willeverse between 2011-2020

2. Storage

VirtualHolographic

Quantum

Allows most workloads to be run,

scaled on most platforms independent

of operating system, hardware,

icroprocessor. Stove piped

application/service vendor lockins are

gone. Most code running is open

source, creative commons or no

ownership.

100% Production runs on

Virtual Platforms Nearly

infinite processing is

available very inexpensively

either locally or from

assive green regional data

and processing centres

90% All Production

Workloads are Virtual

Facilitates Proper Disater

Recovery/Business

Continuity in ever bigger

Data Centers

BI allows your own view

of global internet info for

40K in capital

Production moving from

dev/test into production

applications

1. Virtual

Processing

So What?204020202011Tech Domain

Advanced Software, Tools, Platforms & Ecosystems PresentationVirtualisation Andrew Robinson Top-Down Worked EXAMPLE

Suggested Max 5 slides 3 ideas per page bullet form text

(minimum text)

Moving from dev/test

eval production

applications

10-100MB BW to the

Mobile Phone in Lab

Mobile Smart

Paper/Micro

projectors with

integrated 100MBroadband access

Cyber

Warfare/Security

finally resolved by

road deployment

of Quantum basedIdentity,

Authentication &

Authorisation

Cyber Information

Security based onQuantum

Encryption,

Compression is

globally deployed

Resistance to

spending on

information

protection at Rest

& In transit

declines: Cyber

Warfare booms

Global discovery of

info and services isaciliated by specialise

agents, avatars now

ith personality traits-

sentience


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Bottom-Up Path


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25 50 75 100

Probability of Occurrence

Track Event Description 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

Healthcare Events(Probable ba sed on current/anticipated knowledge)

Multidimensional Dynamic Displays. Real time holograms for surgery, patient interaction,

training x

Image Gloves. Bare hand control x

V oi ce C on tr ol . Tr ac ki ng , r ec og ni ti on x

S mart Rooms, hom es. Whole body l ocati on sensi ng t o t reat pat i ents and t rain st af f x

Smart clothes . Neural interfaces. Bio-signal monitoring x

High performance medical robots. Intelligent, remotely programmable, teletherapy x

Smart micro probes xH os pi ta l P al mt op s fo r s y nc hr on ou s d ia gn os is a nd t he ra py x

Portable medical lasers that seal wounds x

Technology right next to clinical care and the patient Using biometrics, RFID, and barcode

to establish patient identity before treatment administration. Bedside clinical information

displays to keep patients engaged in their own care. Computer navigation x

Interoperable health information infrastructure enables data mining of medical records to

improve care at bedside and improve clinical trial efficiency. Examination of efficacy of

past treatment regimes and outcomes. Treatment recommendations.

The convergence of broadband penetration into homes and the emergence of more

sophisticated portable medical devices is creating an opportunity for harnessing innovative

technology to push the point of healthcare delivery to the home. Telemonitoring and v

Improved patient empowerment via mashup technologies. Treatment options, scheduling,

self treatmentAnti-fat and as soc iat ed diabetes drugs are available x

Targeted drug delivery

Acute spinal injuries are fully treatable x

Complete organ replacements grown from stem c ells

Bathrooms that monitor not just what we excrete but also analyze our skin color and tone

as we look in the mirror are just the beginning. Images and sensors could record

everything we eat and all medicines we take, providing far better analysis on the eff

Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care x

Physician selection of drug regimes based on physiological and biochemical profiles

Cancer, implants

Bone, tissue repair

Deafness is fully curable

Medical nanobots are being developed

Neuron digital interfaces with environment and computers

Robots and artificial intelligence will have manifold roles in healthcare, including avatar

doctors, exoskeletons for nurses, and automated surgery. As Ive written before, one of

t he m os t i mp or ta nt t oo ls wi ll b e e mo ti on al r ob ot s, t ha t c an d em on st ra te e mp x

Prediction of drug ADMET. Absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, toxicology

Designer food and nutrition programs

AIDS, cancer and a plethora of other diseases are becoming curableStem cell pharmacies are commonplace

New types of drugs based on human genome or structural genomics or biomimetics

Are electronic medical information and decision-making systems clinically reliable for

genetic information management? How will health professionals overcome the barriers to

implement data health management and evaluation systems that have family and cros

Life expectancy (in developed countries) continues to increase increases by two years

continuing to aggravate the existing aging of the population. The implications for

healthcare would include not just new treatments, but a massive increase in aged care

Populace expects fitness experiences that are customized for each persons age, gender,

location, spending power and personal preferences.

Virtual training and fitness first via the internet and then via implants


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2011

State of d

evelopm

ent

2017

prospe

cts

Inno

vatio

nmodel

2040

prospe

cts

Inno

vatio

nmodel

Cost-perfo

rmce

Track Event Description

Healthcare Events(Probable based on current/anticipated knowledge)


training

Some capabilities.

Not yet in medical

domain

Displays available

and in regular use.

Patient interaction

initiated

Image Gloves. Bare hand control

Voice Control. Tracking, recognition

Smart Rooms, homes. Whole body location sensing to treat patients and train staff Programs initiated

Homes wired and in

testing in retirement

and managed care

facilities

Smart clothes. Neural interfaces. Bio-signal monitoring

Some technologies

ready. No integration Some field testing

High performance medical robots. Intelligent, remotely programmable, teletherapy

Some technologies


Smart micro probes

Some technologies

ready. No integration

Initial commercial

products envisioned

Hospital Palmtops for s ynchronous diagnosis and therapy

Some technologies

ready. No integration.

Not commercial

Leading hospitals

adopt

Portable medical lasers that seal wounds Prototypes

Leading hospitals

adopt

Technology right next to clinical care and the patient Using biometrics, RFID, and barcode

to establish patient identity before treatment administration. Bedside clinical information

displays to keep patients engaged in t heir own care. Computer navigation

Some technologies


Leading hospitals

adopt

Interoperable health information infrastructure enables data mining of medical records to

improve care at bedside and improve clinical t rial efficiency. Examination of efficacy of

past treatment regimes and outcomes. Treatment recommendations.

Some algorithms.

Initial companies

started.

Hospitals and

provider integration

initiated

The convergence of broadband penetration into homes and the emergence of more

sophisticated portable medical devices is creating an opportunity for harnessing innovative

technology to push the point of healthcare delivery to the home. Telemonitoring and v

Some technologies


Not commercial

Homes wired and in

testing in retirement

and managed care

facilities

Improved patient empowerment via mashup technologies. Treatment options, scheduling,

self treatment

Some technologies


Hospitals and

provider integration

initiated

Anti-fat and associated diabetes drugs are available

Awareness. Some

pharma products.

Clinical trials

underway

Targeted drug delivery

Some organ targeting

p os s ib le Ini t ia l c l in ic al t ri al s

Acute spinal injuries are fully treatable

Animal work

promising

Com plet e organ repl ac em ent s grown from s tem c el ls Ini ti at ed

Increased

acceptance and pay

per usage common

Bathrooms that monitor not just what we excrete but also analyze our skin color and tone

as we look in the mirror are just the beginning. Images and sensors could record

everything we eat and all medicines we take, providing far better analysis on the eff

Some technologies


Managed care and

hospitals examine

potential

Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care

Clinical trials

envisioned


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bstracted

Summary

Matrix

2011

State of d

evelopm

ent

2017

prospe

cts

Inno

vatio

nmod

el

2040

prospe

cts

Track Event DescriptionHealthcare Events(Probable based on current/anticipated knowledge)


training (eg. Image Gloves, bare hand control; V oice Control, t racking, recognition)

Some capabilities.

Not yet in medical

domain

Displays available and in

regular use. Patient

interaction initiated

new business opportunities and

improvements in technology


doctors, exoskeletons for nurses, and automated surgery. Emotional robots, that can

demonstrate empathy and help patients in t heir recovery. High performance medi

Hospitals and provider

integration initiated

Smart clothes and ongoing (interactive) physiological monitoring.. Neural interfaces. Bio-

signal monitoring

Some t echnologies


Technological c hallenges and

functionality improvements t o

overcome bulk, use by first adopters


Awareness. Some

academic progress.

Animal experimentation

advanced. Clinical trials

anticipated.

Advancement of technologies that

will / may be integrated.

Smart micro probes, Medical nanobots are being developed

Some t echnologies




anticipated.

new functionality enables an

infrastructure leaps

Hospital Palmtops for synchronous diagnosis and therapy

Some t echnologies


Initial commercial

applications Leading hospitals adopt

infrastructure in place to enable

communication

Clinical care Using biometrics to establish patient identity and background before

treatment administration.

Some t echnologies

ready. No integration Leading hospitals adopt

Bedside clinical information displays

to keep patients engaged in their

own care.

Clinical trial efficiency via prediction of drug ADMET. Absorption, distribution, metabolism,

excretion, toxicology

Some algorithms.

Initial companies

started.



Technological c hallenges remain and

initial proof of cross species

agreement to be proven.


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Bottom-Up Health Stimulus Template

2011

State of d

evelopm

ent

2017

prospe

cts

Inno

vatio

nmod

el

2040

prospe

cts

Track Event DescriptionHealthcare Events(Probable based on current/anticipated knowledge)


training (eg. Image Gloves, bare hand control; Voice Control, tracking, recognition)

Some capabilities.

Not yet in medical

domain

Displays available and in

regular use. Patient

interaction initiated

new business opportunities and

improvements in technology


doctors, exoskeletons for nurses, and automated surgery. Emotional robots, that can

demonstrate empathy and help patients in their recovery. High performance medi



Smart clothes and ongoing (interactive) physiological monitoring.. Neural interfaces. Bio-

signal monitoring

Some technologies


Technological challenges and

functionality improvements to

overcome bulk, use by first adopters


Awareness. Some

academic progress.



anticipated.

Advancement of technologies that

will / may be integrated.

Smart micro probes, Medical nanobots are being developed

Some technologies




anticipated.

new functionality enables an

infrastructure leaps

Hospital Palmtops for synchronous diagnosis and therapy

Some technologies


Initial commercial

applications Leading hospitals adopt

infrastructure in place to enable

communication

Clinical care Using biometrics to establish patient identity and background before

treatment administration.

Some technologies

ready. No integration Leading hospitals adopt

Bedside clinical information displays

to keep patients engaged in their

own care.

Clinical trial efficiency via prediction of drug ADMET. Absorption, distribution, metabolism,

excretion, toxicology

Some algorithms.

Initial companies

started.



Technological challenges remain and

initial proof of cross species

agreement to be proven.

Innovatio

nmod

el

Cost-perform

ceBreakthr

oug

existing and new technology

platforms adopted in hospital and

medical settings

Real time robotic control in surgery

and interaction w/ patients

Home healthcare becomes possible

Populace expects fitness

experiences that are customized for

each persons age, gender, location,

spending power and personal

preferences.

Home rehabilitation increases while

predictive medicine possible. Virtual

training and fitness first via the internet

and then via implants

Initial testing in critical patients and

high risk/benefit athletes & militia

Addressing anticipated regulatory

issues. Patient acceptance

value chain efficiencies created in

hospitals and pharma industry.

Predictive medicine and efficacy of

therapy now possible

Functionality and efficiency

increases. New businesses and

business models develop w/

providers and payers

Decreases in insurance fraud; cost of

treatment, use of ineffective drugs.

Clinical trial costs decrease

Algorithm-driven diagnosis is

already well tried and tested and will

be implemented in EMR to bring

about cost-effective diagnosis and

increasingly, the same will apply to

the treatment of chronic diseases.

Computer navigation via integration of

a multitude of medical imaging

datasets through the real-time display

of anatomy during surgery. This will be

taken further via telemedicine, head up

displays and haptics feedback

technologies. Knowledge bases will i

Regulatory controls to be overcome

and first adopter value in the clinic

being addressed

More rapid and less costly

pharmaceutical and biomedical device

approval brings new products and

technologies to market. New

products and services launched.


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Personalised Medicine Will Dominate

HC Industry


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Current Health Value Chain


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Future Health Care Value Chain


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Some Conclusions for Canada

Canada has much of what the world needs (natural resources, food, energy

and knowledge). But these will not be enough after 2020 to maintain

Canada on a high income track without productivity-enhancing innovation

as well as high workforce participation.

The productivity challenge is major and could destroy Canada as a politicalentity if the per capita earnings gap with the US becomes too large. That

means changing the way Canada does business to focus on building an

innovative knowledge-based economy with a value added, high quality

orientation.

Green shift represents a a major challenge and opportunity. But only a

few yearsto 2020-- remain to build capacity to get into the game.

Innovation opp

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