futures of technology in africa

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Jasper Grosskurth

Futures oF

technology

in AFricA

STT 75


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About STT

STT explores new trends and develops inspiring oresights on technology and society.

For that purpose STT acilitates a ree space in which enthusiastic stakeholders meet

and construct creative views on the uture. The results serve as starting points or

new initiatives, such as applied research programmes or public-private cooperation.

Project participants are the most important ambassadors o the results, which are

also distributed through the media, lectures and workshops.

The STT Netherlands Study Centre or Technology Trends was established in 1968 by

The Netherlands Royal Instititute o Engineers (KIVI). STT is a non-prot organiza-tion unded by the Dutch government and business contributions. STTs advisory

board consists o almost 30 members who are selected among contributors and

scientic institutions, all appointed on personal title. In addition, STT hosts two

academic chairs on utures studies and research. While most regular updates on

our activities are in Dutch, many o our reports are in English. Do take a look at

current and past oresight projects and our recent publications on our website.

Address:

P.O. Box 30424

2500 GK The Haguethe Netherlands

Telephone: +31 70 302 98 30

E-mail: [email protected]


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Imprint

Lead author: Jasper Grosskurth, STT, the Hague

Prooreading: Sally Lansdell, EditExpert, Northolt, United Kingdom

Production co-ordinator: Rosemarijke Otten, STT, the Hague

Book and cover design: Roqueort Ontwerpers, Utrecht

Print: Deltahage, the Hague

ISBN 978-90-809613-7-1

STT Publication no 75

NUR 950

Keywords: Arica, technology, development, oresight

2010 STT, The Hague, the Netherlands

Rights are reserved under a Creative Commons license (http://creativecommons.org/

licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/)

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You must attribute the work to STT Netherlands Study Centre or Technology

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Futures oFtechnology

in AFricAJasper Grosskurth

STT 75

STT, Den Haag, Nederland 2010


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9

Every successul economic catch-up in

the past 140 years has involved the ap-

propriation o international technology,

and technology plays an important role

in most strategies to alleviate hunger

and poverty, including the UNs Millen-

nium Development Goals. In addition

to the ethical imperatives o ghting

poverty and hunger, a number o global

issues, including demographic shits,

climate change and geo-political sta-

bility, require the application o tech-

nology in developing countries. Beyond

these considerations, businesses in de-

veloped and developing countries alikehave discovered the signicant buying

power o the poor and their desire or

aordable consumer products, as well

as the potential to reduce costs through

production in less developed countries.

Consumption and production in poor

regions are now strong drivers o global

technology innovation and diusion.

The set o opportunities and constraints

guiding technological dynamics in

developing countries diers rom that

o developed countries in some im-

portant respects. For example, devel-

oped countries are subject to strong technological

lock-ins, such as communication through copper

wires, internet access with desktop computers,

car-intensive transport inrastructures and central-

ized systems o energy production. Many less and

least developed countries are not subject to theselimitations, oering them the opportunity or

so-called leaprogging. Landline telephones, still

widespread in developed countries, are skipped in

the evolution o telecoms sectors in less developed

countries. For many applications, desktop will be

skipped as smart phones and similar gadgets pro-

vide internet access. In many rural areas, decen-

tralized energy solutions will roll out more quickly

than the centralized ones that still orm the back-

bone o energy systems in developed countries.

However, while the possibility o installing the

latest generation o technology rom scratch oers

at the cost o precision and depth. The choices we

made in combining the two strategies are based

on our months o literature research and several

dozen conversations with experts on technology

and development with business, government and

academic backgrounds. This section explains the

choices we made.

In STT oresights, these choices are not pre-de-

termined beore the launch o a project. It is the

rst task o an STT project leader to identiy the

most promising niche and reormulate the project

ocus accordingly. These niches promise a relevant

contribution to the understanding o the uture

interaction o technology and society, making useo the strengths o STT. These include the capacity

to build new knowledge networks o personally

committed high-level experts with a wide range o

backgrounds, and to explore an issue fexibly, crea-

tively and independently. The niche should also be

o relevance to Dutch society, whether this be busi-

ness, government, academia or civil society. And

STTs niches are oten neglected by other organiza-

tions at the time o their ormulation.

Why Africa?

The possibility o not applying a regional ocus

was ruled out very early in the project. We did not

expect to deliver meaningul results while working

simultaneously on our continents in networks that

would rst have to nd common ground across

multiple cultural barriers. A global ocus would

have orced the project towards a level o abstrac-

tion at which its practical relevance would have

been compromised.

Between the options, there were many reasons

to ocus on Arica. During the last decade, Arica

has outgrown the world economy and, despite

the recent nancial crisis, this trend is projected

to continue in the uture. For some technologies

Arica even exhibits the highest growth rates in

the world, mobile communication being the most

prominent example. Arica really is rising. Despite

these developments, the global technological gap

is most persistent, poverty is denser than else-

where and less is known about technology in Arica

when compared with other developing regions.

The combination o a highly dynamic region with

excellent opportunities or development on the

one hand, and a desperate need to improve the

quality o lie or a large part o the population on

the other, makes Arica an exciting and worthwhile

project target.

This impression was conrmed in conversations

with experts on development and technology.

Without previously mentioning a regional ocus,

most experts used examples rom Arica to explain

their arguments. When asked directly which, i

any, regional ocus should be applied, the over-

whelming majority chose Arica, more specically

Sub-Saharan Arica. The latter ocus was appliedbecause North Arica is economically and techno-

logically much more integrated with Europe. Also,

the drivers o technological change, opportunities

and threats diered substantially between the re-

gions north and south o the Sahara. Most interna-

tional organizations categorize Sub-Saharan Arica

as Arica without Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco,

Sudan, Tunisia and Western Sahara and we ollow

that denition in this book, unless mentioned oth-

erwise. We also neglect the specic issues concern-

ing Aricas small island states.

opportunities, the path o resource-intensive tech-

nology that the Western countries have ollowed

is largely closed to developing countries, be it or

reasons o prohibitive costs o resources, relative

lack o capital or global sustainability. This mostly

concerns the use o ossil uels, rare materials and

ertilizers. An obstacle in the path o becoming

a source o global technology is the act that the

global technological knowledge economy is highly

concentrated in a very ew places. This process

o concentration is sel-reinorcing. Geographical

centres o technological excellence and innovation

attract innovators, capital and expertise, making it

particularly dicult or others to catch up. Experts

and proessionals tend to move towards thesecentres, and a brain drain takes place.

STTs interest in exploring the uture o technology

in developing countries is driven by the opportu-

nities to address urgent problems, by questions

about past and oreseeable ailures, by the possi-

bility o improving development strategies and by a

wish to gain a better understanding o the worlds

emerging markets. The most important driver,

however, is the awareness that technology will

aect the uture o the worlds poor, that the poor

will infuence the uture o technology, and that

very little is known about this interaction. How will

technology evolve in developing countries, how

will global technology evolve as poor countries

become emerging countries and emerging countries

become developed countries, which sectors will be

most aected, which will have the biggest impact,

which will change soonest, and what lessons can

we learn today rom the answers to these question?This is the quest o the STT oresight on The Future

o Technology in Developing Countries.

Scope and choicesExploring all aspects o utures o technology in

developing countries with a time horizon o two

decades in a meaningul manner is beyond the

scope o most organizations, including STT. There

are two possible escape routes rom this impos-

sibility. The rst is limiting the ocus to a specic

region, industrial sector or type o technology, at

the cost o comprehensiveness. The second is to

apply broad brush strokes, providing an overview

Introduction

introduction

Sub-Saharan Arica


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Introduction

11

Sources o inormationTo interpret this book it is helpul to understand

the sources on which it is based: visits on location,

interviews, conversations, workshops, quantitative

data and literature studies.

Visits on location, interviews and conversations

The most important source o all or any STT oresight

lies in people. For the past three years, we have ini-

tiated hundreds o conversations on utures o tech-

nology in Arica. These can be divided into several

groups. In the rst phase, open dialogues dominated

the project, meetings with anyone with any link to

technology in Arica, ranging rom world traveller to

science ction author, rom sel-employed web de-signer to director o a multi-national, rom creative

thinker to globally renowned expert, rom reugee

to ambassador, rom activist to minister. Questions

included: What do you think about when you think

about technology in developing countries? Which

questions should this project seek to answer? How

does your work or expertise relate to the technol-

ogy and development? What changes would you put

your money on? Who else should be involved and

which literature is a must-read? These conversations

established and ormed the project and resulted in a

diverse network that has carried the project along.

Once the shape o the project was emerging,

conversations moved rom personal conversations

to public discussions. Forums o debate included

NGOs, such as a workshop at the 2009 1% Event in

Amsterdam; academic research, such as a panel

debate on ethics, technology and development led

by a consortium o the three technical Universitiesin the Netherlands (3TU); businesses, or example a

strategic session with TNOs in-house Flying Innova-

tion Team; and governance, or example a presen-

tation and top-level discussion at the Social and

Economic Council o the Netherlands (SER), among

many others. These events were always two-way

exchanges. The projects ideas and preliminary

ndings would be presented and eedback would

be given, on content, possible sources and partners,

similar projects elsewhere, and so on.

The third kind o conversations, ormal and inor-

mal interviews, were taking place during visits on

dependent oresight project on Arican governments

seemed overambitious.

About this bookThis book is the most tangible o the projects

results. Its aim is to make you think again about

Arica and how you see Arica, wherever in the

world you are. Its purpose is to make you ques-

tion your and our ideas about Arica. The book

adds a technology voice to a global conversation,

in which cultural, economic, political, institutional,

intellectual and many other voices are also taking

part, bringing about a richer image o modern-day

Arica. The book is best understood as a journey. We

meet and listen to technology and other pioneers,acilitators o change, sceptical experts, intellectual

visionaries, cheetahs and hippos (we will come

back to what they stand or in Chapter 1). We visit

hot spots o technology and explore uture suc-

cesses and ailures.

The book is not a comprehensive inventory o

technology in Arica. Those looking or a detailed,

quantitative overview o sector-specic inorma-

tion and related orecasts will be disappointed,

though they might nd valuable nuggets. For the

current state o technology and short-term trends,

other organizations with a pan-Arican reach and

expert partners in all technological sectors pro-

duce reports and databases with rapidly increas-

ing quality. Reerences to these are listed among

the Recommended sources at the end o most

chapters. Neither is the book as a whole a work o

science. No overall hypothesis is being ormulated,

let alone tested and many o the sources, and theiranalysis would not stand up to commonly accepted

scientic criteria. This book is not objective. The

interviewees were selected based on their position,

their expertise and their ability to think creatively

and abstractly. Innovative trends received more

attention than well-known ones, businesses more

than NGOs. Countries to visit were selected on the

basis o their potential to be technology pioneers

on the continent. We went where the change is

quickest, where the uture seems closest and, more

than once, where chance brought us. It is one o

the luxuries o an STT oresight that serendipity is

allowed to unold its powers.

global technology to Arica. Also, the willingness o

businesses to invest resources and capacities in a

particular technology in relation to Arica is one o

the better indicators or what will happen in the me-

dium-term uture. Among the plethora o concepts

and ideas that seem to address the needs on the

continent, those with major nancial backing and

those with many competing companies heading in

the same direction are those most likely to blossom.

During conversations and interviews, businesses,

both in Arica and in the Netherlands, were also

most eager to learn about the uture o technology

and seemed most likely to act on the results. STT

oresights thrive on this curiosity and commitment,which lead the participants to share their insights.

Several managers argued that they needed the big-

ger story to convince their superiors to take Arica

more seriously as an emerging market. This story is

emerging at the present time and this STT oresight

contributes a large chunk to it, a chunk that has

been relatively neglected or too long. This ocus ts

perectly with STTs excellent business network, as

well as its policy o taking up an issue or not more

than three years and then launching the results

through other organizations.

This choice does not imply that this book is ir-

relevant or non-business readers. On the contrary.

NGOs are increasingly co-operating with businesses

to leverage their impact and to achieve their goals.

The business ocus stimulates this interaction. Also,

NGOs, be they oreign with a stake in Arica or local,

are increasingly aced with a type o change that

requires business-like responses. For example, NGOsneed to plan strategically or the rapid changes in

the communication landscape. They need to invest

their resources diligently in projects that are most

likely to deliver, taking into account uture uncer-

tainties. And development projects without an eco-

nomic easibility are unlikely to work beyond a local

scale. For the same reasons, the Dutch government

is also strengthening its economic relationship with

Arica, while weakening classical aid programmes.

As or Arican governments, the quality o govern-

ance in Arican countries is without doubt the most

important actor infuencing the uture o Arica.

However, the possible leverage o a oreign and in-

Why technology?

The ocus on technology is part o STTs core mission

to explore utures o technology and society. When

applied to Arica, this ocus delivers interesting

results. Arica is mostly understood in terms o its

problems (the crisis stereotype) or in terms o its

wild beauty (the exotic stereotype). The technology

perspective is useul to see beyond these stereo-

types, to rerame Arica. It makes the recent eco-

nomic successes o Arica tangible and opportunities

or uture development visible. In addition, it brings

with it new actors and new networks. Large tech-

nology companies, or example, would have con-

sidered Arica a non-market a ew years ago but are

now committing to the continent. Sotware com-panies are increasingly building programming skills

in Arica and learning rom local innovators. And

because Aricas population pyramid still deserves

the name, technology adoption is progressing aster

than elsewhere. Beyond all o this, technology does

save and extend lives. The availability o clean

drinking water, o reliable electricity, o access to

communication and transport services does increase

lie expectancy, as health education and entrepre-

neurship benet. Chapter 3 explores the technology

aspect in more depth.

Why business?

STT projects dont have clients, saeguarding the

independence o the oresights. Nevertheless, one o

the criteria or the decision to dedicate a oresight to

a specic topic is that the results should be relevant

to someone. With respect to the uture o technol-

ogy in Arica, the ollowing groups were considered

as primary targets: businesses, NGOs, academiaand government. Each o these groups could be

addressed in the Netherlands, in Arican countries

or on a global or multilateral level. In the end,

business became the most important ocus o the

project. The reasons or this are twoold: rst, busi-

nesses are the major driver o large-scale techno-

logical change; and second, businesses are the most

curious to learn about the uture o technology.

On a continent where public investment in research

and development signicantly lags behind every

other world region, businesses become the ma-

jor drivers o technological change by transerring


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Introduction

13

now, i this or that development takes place?

What other trends would it interact with?

A th set o questions triggered interviewees

to ormulate their own long-term Utopia and

the obstacles to getting there. What is the best

scenario one can imagine and what stands in the

way o getting there? These questions oten led to

very personal conversations about values, hopes

and ears. They taught me about the internal

motivation and ambition o an interviewee.

Two questions ended each interview. The rst was

what the West should learn rom Arica; the sec-

ond, whom else I should meet. The rst question

was oten met with bafement, smiles and a long

silence beore an answer was given. The secondquestion allowed me to serendipitously discover

new interviewees guided by the local expertise o

people who knew my questions and interests.

Workshops

Businesses are usually reluctant to share their

insights and activities. This is generally the case,

but holds even more in the context o Arica. Do-

ing business in Arica makes Western businesses

vulnerable to negative publicity, even i an activity

contributes to development. Thereore most com-

panies with a stake in Arica have a Corporate Social

Responsibility presentation in which they highlight

their support o a local health or education project

or a marginal product in their range, specically

targeted at local development.

In order to overcome this and bring about a process

o mutual learning, STT partnered with the Neth-

erlands-Arican Business Council (NABC) in organ-izing the Discover the Lion workshop series. Each

workshop would ocus on one technology-intensive

commercial sector and bring together between 30

and 50 business representatives, hosted by a gene-

rous business partner: IBM hosted workshops on

energy, ICT, water and l ogistics; FrieslandCampina

on ood; PTC+ on agriculture; and the Technical

University Delt on business models. A set o short

presentations by industry experts was ollowed by

two hours o group discussions. In this peer-to-

peer setting, the participants were happy to share

their motivations, their expectations, their con-

cerns, their needs, their questions. These discus-

tion Ocer at the Federal Ministry o Education,

Abuja

Olatunbosun Obayom, ounder o the Bio Applica-

tions Initiative, Lagos

Ghana:

Andrew Tonto Baour, President o the Ghana

Institution o Engineers (GhIE), Accra

Ko Bucknor, Managing Partner at Kingdom

Zephyr, Accra

During interviews and conversations, most peo-

ple will nd it dicult to think about long-term

utures rom a cold start. Asking a person point

blank what the world or their eld will look likein 2030 is unlikely to produce worthwhile results.

Thereore, each interview was held ollowing the

same six-step open structure, designed to lead the

interviewee as smoothly as possible rom thinking

about the present to thinking about the uture.

Ater a very short introduction to STT, mysel and

the project, interviewees were invited to intro-

duce themselves, their eld o work and what it

has to do with technology. The result is a snap-

shot o the interviewees expertise in relation to

technology in Arica.

A time dimension was introduced in a second

set o questions by asking or changes observed

during the past ve years in the eld discussed.

This established an understanding o the speed

o change, as well as indentiying some drivers or

obstacles o change.

A third set o questions explored whether these

or other changes could be expected to continueor the next ve years and what the conse-

quences would be. This established the rst step

into the uture, providing many leads as well as

an inventory o the medium-term expectations o

the interviewee.

In a ourth set o questions, the time horizon was

gradually extended. Possible trend breaks were

explored, as was the scale o change possible

within a decade or two. This phase ocused very

much on the broader eects o technological

change. Questions included: How will a trend a-

ect your lie and the lives o your ellow citizens?

What will the country look like ten years rom

Dr Dorothy Okello, Women o Uganda Network

(WOUGNET), Kampala

James Segawa, Medical Equipment Consultants

Ltd, Kampala

Group interview at the National Agricultural

Research Organisation (NARO), headed by Dr Am-

brose Agona, Kawande

Rwanda:

Anonymous energy expert at the Ministry o Inra-

structure, Kigali

Anonymous inrastructure planning expert at the

Ministry o Inrastructure, Kigali

South Africa:Simon Camerer, Executive Head o Marketing at

Cell C, Johannesburg

Simon Dingle, technology journalist, writer,

broadcaster and proessional speaker, Johan-

nesburg

Anonymous lead partner Sub-Saharan Arica at a

global strategy consultancy, Johannesburg

Cliord Foster, GBS Partner and Chie Technology

Ocer at IBM, Johannesburg

Arthur Goldstuck, Director o World Wide Worx,

Johannesburg

Tanja Hichert, Scenario Planning practitioner and

acilitator o strategic conversations, Hichert &

Associates and Research Associate at the Institute

or Futures Research, Stellenbosch University

Raq Philips, Web AddICT and Marketing

Technologist, Cape Town

Tony Surridge, Senior Manager Advanced Fossil

Fuel Use at SANERI, Johannesburg

Paul Vorster, CEO at the Intelligent TransportSociety (ITS), Johannesburg

Nigeria:

Pro. Michael Adikwu, STEP-B National Project

Coordinator, Abuja

Josh Asanga, Port Manager at the Lagos Por t Com-

plex, Nigerian Ports Authority, Lagos

Adeyemi Fajingbesi, Technical Advisor to the

Minister o National Planning on Vision 20:2020,

Abuja

Jason Hurter, Managing Director at Fugro Oshore

Survey, Lagos

Pro. Abdulkarim Obaje, Monitoring and Evalua-

location in Kenya, Uganda, Rwandan, South Arica,

Nigeria and Ghana. Inormal interviews were mostly

used to learn about country-specic inormation, to

connect people, to gain access to local networks, to

allow serendipity, to be surprised. Formal inter-

views primarily delivered in-depth inormation on

specic issues or technology domains, long-term

visions and ambitions, personal insights on what

the uture might bring and questions to be ollowed

up. The ormal interviews were recorded, tran-

scribed and analysed. In this book, quotes without

a reerence stem rom these interviews. Chapter 10

is based almost exclusively on such interviews, as

is a large part o Chapter 8. However, any opinions

expressed may be biased by the choice o specicinterview segments and by the context in which

they are placed. The author o this book is solely

responsible or the content and any mistakes and

misjudgements.

Interviewees included the ollowing people:

Kenya:Salim Amin, Chairman at A24 Media, Nairobi

Julie Gichuru, Group Digital Business Manager

and Talk Show Host at Royal Media Services,

Nairobi

Wambura Kimunyu, an Arican writer, observer,

thinker and dreamer, Nairobi

Ahmed Sheikh Nabhani, Kiswahili Consultant at

the Swahili Cultural Centre, Mombasa

Nicholas Nesbitt, CEO at KenCall, Nairobi

Edwin Nyanducha, Founder o Inkubate Ltd,

Nairobi

Dr Sheila Ochugboju, Senior Communications andOutreach Ocer at ATPS, Nairobi

Dr Ahmed Yassin, Director at the Research Insti-

tute o Swahili Studies o Eastern Arica, Mombasa

Uganda:

Dhizaala Sanon Moses, National Planning Author-

ity, Kampala

Andrew Mwenda, Managing Editor o The Inde-

pendent, Kampala

Erostus Nsubuga, CEO at Agro-Genetic Technolo-

gies Ltd

Pro. Jospeh Obua, The Inter-University Council or

East Arica, Kampala


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Introduction

15

Chapter 9, with a major contribution rom guest

author Sheila Ochugboju, discusses the neces-

sity o a societal awareness o and discourse on

technological change. Reasons or stimulating this

discourse include the improvement o societal

choices about technological utures and the

acilitation o an Arican transition rom technol-

ogy consumer to technology innovator. Chapter 10

turns the tables and explores lessons or the West

to learn rom Arica, based on interview excerpts.

Chapter 11 provides a short overview o uture

changes and contains guidelines or the present

on how Western organizations can become uture

proo and take part in Aricas uture.

Wambura Kimunyus science ction story, TheLast Inrmity o Noble Minds (an excerpt), ends

the book. The story provokes us to take a long

view with an Arocentric perspective. Stories are

a powerul way to explore the uture and looking

beyond the horizon o all we know is an ecient

means o thinking out o the box. As this book is

being published, a ollow-up project o collating

a book o Arican science ction stories is being

discussed.

Literature study

Throughout the project, a continuous literature

study was executed. This ranged rom scientic

journals and reports to blogs and newspaper

articles. As the project evolved, the content o the

sources screened converged more and more on the

issue o technology and utures. The publications

contributed many o the arguments and examples

in this book. Many o the authors were contacted

and ended up contributing their knowledge, and

several o the initiatives ound in the publications

were taken up in the itinerary o the visits on loca-

tion.

Reading guideFew people will read this book cover to cover, but

most readers with an interest in Arica will nd

valuable inormation within it. The book can largely

be divided into our parts, each with its own char-

acter and purpose:

The rst three chapters are mostly o interest or

those interested in the motivation and process o

long-term thinking in general and on Arica and

technology specically. Chapter 1 sets the stage

with an overview o Arica in the 21st century

in terms o economic development, population

growth and the change in liestyles accompanying

both. In Chapter 2, guest author Geci Karuri-Sebina

provides an overview o utures studies in and

about Arica. Chapter 3 ocuses on the exploration o

global technological utures in relation to Arican

utures.

Chapters 4 to 7 are o most interest or those with

a hands-on interest in Arica. They explore u-tures o ICT, energy, inrastructure and agriculture,

respectively. Each o these chapters provides an

overview o the state o technology, major trends

and applications, uture uncertainties and open

questions.

Chapters 8 to 11 are o most interest to readers

with a strategic interest in Arica, those with a

long-term stake. The inormation gathered in

Chapters 4 to 7 is integrated and put into the

broader context o societal utures in Chapter 8,

based on interview transcriptions rom six Arican

countries and a set o scenarios developed in an

accelerated scenario planning workshop in Nairobi.

subsistence or barter economies, numbers remain

very rough. As dierent methods are used or these

estimates in dierent countries and by dierent

organizations, comparability suers even more. In

addition, or many indicators there is an incentive

to over- or underestimate. A region might want to

appear poorer to receive extra support or richer to

prove good governance. The Penn World Tables, a

world-standard compilation o income data, ranks

countries with grades A to D by the quality o their

data. While industrialized countries mostly score

straight As, nearly all Sub-Saharan Arican countries

get a grade o C or D, corresponding to a margin o

error o 30 to 40%.

As a consequence o these data problems, even

the present is analytically a part o the uture, with

most o the same uncertainties. Many characteris-

tics o data on Arica violate important conditions

or sound statistical analysis. Projections into the

uture based on extrapolations or regression models

are especially problematic. Their value is illustrative

more than exact. Decision makers used to basing

their assumptions on rich and accurate data should

take into account extreme uncertainties and biases.

Even improving data can cause problems, or exam-

ple ghost trends: i an indicator has been consis-

tently underestimated, an increase in accuracy in

itsel will result in an upward trend; overestimation

will result in a downward trend.

And data quality is improving. One cause o this

lies in more and better tools to collect data, rang-

ing rom satellite images or rening population

estimates to crowd-collected data through mobilephones. For the inormal settlement o Kibera in

Nairobi, or example, population estimates were

adjusted rom 1 million and more to a current

170,000 in Kenyas latest census, triggered by de-

tailed research. Also, as companies expand their

stakes in Arica, they are dedicating extra resources

to improving data availability and quality or out-

sourcing this to independent service providers. For

governments, the main incentive to improve their

data capacity is the establishment o unctioning

tax systems. Overall, we can look orward to signi-

cantly better and richer data with smaller margins

o error on Arica in the coming years.

sions provided valuable guidance in identiying less

visible aspects o technology in Arica. Results o

these workshops are available at www.stt.nl/Dis-

coverTheLion.

A dierent type o workshop was the FutureLab

workshop in February 2010 in Kenya. This brought

together ten o East Aricas most creative thinkers.

In an intensive one-day workshop, we explored u-

tures o East Arica with a time horizon o 20 years,

based on a rapid oresight method. The workshop

tested many o the preliminary project results

and embedded them in dierent plausible uture

cultural, political, economic and environmental

contexts. The results o this unique event can beound in Chapters 8 and 9.

Quantitative data and statistical projections

The availability o quantitative data on Arica is

relatively low. And where data is available, it is

oten o doubtul quality or outdated. The most

comprehensive sources or Pan Arican data per

country are the World Banks World Development

Indicators, the IMFs World Economic Outlook Da-

tabases and its derivative, the Regional Economic

Outlook Sub-Saharan Arica, and the Arican

Economic Outlook, published by the OECD and

the Arican Development Bank. These sets cover a

wide range o economic, social, environmental,

institutional and technological indicators and their

development, mostly up to two to three years ago.

In addition to these overviews, industry-specic

global organizations, such as the International

Telecoms Union (ITU) or the International Energy

Association (IEA), publish useul data. Also, marketresearch companies are increasingly covering Arica

in sector-specic research bries, oten including

short-term projections.

The data in all o these sources is subject to a high

margin o error, even more so the data or least de-

veloped countries, smaller economies or countries

in confict. Governments oten lack the institutional

capacity to measure even key indicators, such as the

size o the population or the economy. Especially in

rural areas, population numbers are rough esti-

mates, at best. Economic data now requently in-

cludes the unocial economy, but with pure cash,


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11/83

Chapter 1: 21st century Arica

19

tant assets outside and beyond the stereotypes, such

as widespread vibrant entrepreneurship, sophisti-

cated intellectual elites and the ambition to be seen

as a respected partner in the global community; and

second, the diversity between regions, countries,

cultures and socio-economic classes. Generalizing

about Arica based solely on the examples o the

crises in Congo-Kinshasa, Somalia and Zimbabwe is

short-sighted and misleading. A majority o Aricans

has neither suered persistent hunger, nor been

directly aected by an armed confict. A middle class

is taking root in many Arican cities. They too have

their story. The dierences between countries likeGhana and Nigeria or Rwanda and Kenya are at least

as big as the dierences between any two European

or Asian countries.

Arican economies score some o the highest growth

rates in the world, political stability is improving

and a young, highly entrepreneurial generation is

on the rise. And while many o Aricas problems

deserve global attention, the stories beyond the

crisis and the exoticism must be told as well. Not

only do they provide surprising insights into the

present and uture o the continent, they are also

the key to continuing the current rise o Arica. Who

Seeing beyond the stereotypes

People in the West are undamentally un-

educated about Arica. And its not only the

people in the street, even the educated classes

know little about the continent. Thats why

companies and institutions systematically

underestimate the potential o Arica.

These are the words o one o the leading strategy

consultants on Sub-Saharan Arica and many share

his opinion. Two stereotypes dominate Europes

image o Arica. The crisis stereotype emphasizeshunger, poverty, conficts, corruption and wide-

spread mismanagement, thus creating an image

o helplessness, incompetence and ineriority. The

exotic stereotype accentuates the natural beauty o

the landscapes, the colourul cultures expressed in

textiles, music and artiacts, the mysticism and the

smiles o the poor. A eeling o otherness underlies

this perception.

Both stereotypes have more than a grain o truth in

them. Crisis is widespread and Arica is exotic to the

Westerner. However, at least two important aspects

are lost in the caricatures: rst, Aricas many impor-

Figure 1-1: United Nations population prospects 20102050 in thousands (medium variant). Source: United Nations (2010)

50,000100,000

150,000200,000250,000

300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000550,000

600,000650,000

1,000,000

700,000

1,500,000

750,000

2,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Arica

Eastern Arica

Middle Arica

Southern Arica

Western Arica

Aricas population o currently 820 million will

more than double to almost 1.7 billion by 2050,

increasing rom its current share o 12% o the world

population to 19% in 2050. As Figure 1-1 shows, this

growth is pervasive with the exception o Southern

Arica (Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Arica

and Swaziland). The same estimates stipulate that

in 2050, as today, more than hal o the population

will live in just six countries: Nigeria (158 million in-

habitants in 2009/289 million inhabitants in 2050),

Ethiopia (85 million/174 million), Congo-Kinshasa

(68 million/148 million), South Arica (50 million/57

million), Tanzania (42 million/not available) and

Kenya (41 million/85 million).

As a consequence o the ongoing strong population

growth, Arica has an extremely young population

and a population pyramid that still deserves the

name. All countries in Sub-Saharan Arica, with the

exception o the small island states, score above

world average in the share o 014 year olds in their

population (CIA, 2009). In addition to its youth,

Aricas population is increasingly urban. According

to UN-HABITAT (2008), 40% o Aricans live in cities

but Arican entrepreneurs is going to create the

millions o jobs required to eradicate poverty? Who

but Arican consumers, workers and their employ-

ers is going to pay the taxes needed to nance

public services sustainably? Who but well-trained

Arican armers will eed the growing population o

the continent? When Barack Obama addressed the

Ghanaian parliament in 2009, he summarized it

well: We must start rom the simple premise that

Aricas uture is up to Aricans.A more educated

West would strengthen the many threads o positive

change by working with Aricans rich and poor,

disenranchised and elite as true partners.

However, it is not only or the sake o Arica thatnew stories should be told. In its own interest, the

West urgently needs to educate itsel about Arica.

Europe has always needed Arica and will continue

to need Arica. Being ignorant about vast tracts o

arable land, about large resources o oil, gas, rare

earths and metals, about largely untapped renew-

able resources ranging rom biomass to sunshine

comes at a high price, as does turning your back on

the last emerging market and its consumers. Politi-

cally, disregarding Arica diminishes the power o

the West more than that o Arica, as other partners,

including India and China, are happy to deal with

Arica on an equal ooting. Demographically, wast-

ing the potential or clo se co-operation between

the ageing societies o the West and Aricas in-

creasingly educated youth would be a massive loss

to both sides. Geo-politically, discounting Arica

will also destabilize other regions. Again, in the

words o Barack Obama in Ghana: The 21stcentury

will be shaped by what happens not just in Romeor Moscow or Washington, but by what happens in

Accra, as well.

This chapter takes a look at a number o mega-

trends that will determine the ace o Arica in the

21st century. It provides a short summary o popula-

tion trends, current economic perormance and a

less tangible change in vibe.

A growing populationWithout doubt, population growth will be an

important actor in Aricas uture. The United

Nations (UN, 2010) estimates that Sub-Saharan

Aricas biggest cities are Cairo, Lagos and Kinshasa.

40 Cities in Sub-Saharan Arica have more than 1 million

inhabitants


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13/83

Chapter 1: 21st century Arica

23

Arica, implementing 67 reorms. Nearly hal the

reorms in the region are ocused on making it

easier to start a business or trade across borders.

Rwanda was the rst Sub-Saharan Arican country

to lead the ranking o top reormers, a reward or a

steady stream o reorms implemented since 2001.

The positive trends o the past are by no means a

guarantee or a peaceul uture o good governance.

Even with more and more ecient confict-pre-

vention mechanisms in place today to secure uture

peace and stability, confict cannot be ignored and

many o the regions democracies are vulnerable. In

the words o a leading strategy consultant:

Arica is a portolio game. You have to be

active in 30 Arican countries. Two o them

might turn out like Zimbabwe, but the rest will

compensate with strong earnings.

A new vibeThe demographic, economic and political trends

described above are all well documented and

contain many signals or an upbeat 21st century in

Arica. But reports and spreadsheets oer just a

glimpse o the changes in the streets o Nairobi or

Lagos. They capture little o the hunger or inorma-

tion, the ambition or personal improvement, the

changes in liestyles and attitudes, the globaliza-

tion o Arican minds and the social impacts o an

increasingly connected Arica. In my conversations

in Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, South Arica, Nigeria

and Ghana, people emphasized again and again

how much their lie, their city, their country had

changed over the past decade. For many, ar-awayriends are now a phone call or a mouse click away.

Unprecedented educational and business oppor-

tunities are evolving. Changes in liestyles, music

and slang languages are accelerating. Impatience to

catch up with the rest o the world is widespread.

A young generation, or which Ghanaian economist

George Ayittey coined the term Cheetah genera-

tion, is emerging among urban educated youths.

They are entrepreneurial, vocal and dislike corrup-

tion. Previously, the most intelligent youths aimed

or jobs in government or with international NGOs,

as these employers secured a decent and reliable

an income below 2,000 US dollars decreased rom

55 million in the year 2000 to 47 million dollars in

2008 and is estimated to be 44 million dollars in

2020. Figure 1-3 summarizes these ndings.

One driver o Aricas economic growth lies in the

high resource prices that have avoured Arican

economies or most o the decade. But this is ar

rom the whole story. Angola and Nigeria have

certainly grown on the back o oil and gas. Their

growth rates can only be decoupled rom resource

prices i oil revenues are invested into broader

economic development. However, a long list o

Arican countries has managed to diversiy their

economies signicantly. In Cte dIvoire, Namibia,

Zambia, Senegal, Cameroon, Kenya, Ghana, Mo-zambique, Tanzania and Uganda, the contribution

to GDP o the manuacturing and service sectors,

such as construction, banking, telecom and retail,

surpassed 65% in 2008, with a rising tendency.

(MGI, 2010)

Conicts, political stability and reormAn important driver o economic growth can be

ound in the realm o stability and governance.

Most importantly, the number o conficts in Arica

has decreased. According to the Ploughshares

Armed Confict Report (2009), there was a decrease

rom 16 conficts spread over 17 countries in the year

2000 to 11 conficts in 10 countries in 2008. During

this period, conficts ended, among others, in Con-

go-Brazzaville (peace agreement signed in 2000),

Ethiopia/Eritrea (2001), Angola (civil war in 2002 and

Cabinda confict in 2007), Liberia (2005) and Cte

dIvoire (2007). While the end o a confict is no

guarantee o development, all countries in this listhave shown exceptionally strong growth rates since

signing their respective peace agreements.

Aricas political landscape is also changing. Zimbab-

wes Robert Mugabe is the nal remaining o the

rst presidents ater independence. The number o

democratic and peaceul changes o government is

growing and citizens are increasingly demanding

good governance. Macro-economic stability and

micro-economic reorms are a direct consequence

o better governance, including improved budgetary

discipline. The World Banks Doing Business Report

(2010) lists reorms in 29 countries in Sub-Saharan

income. Today, employment in the private sector

and entrepreneurship are highly regarded and seen

as a way to become rich by being productive. The

opportunities or those with access to inormation,

higher education and relevant skills are endless and

their number is increasing.

These changes are refected in the mirror windows

o the business districts oce buildings. They can

be seen in coee shops, where young urban proes-

sionals work at their laptops; they can be seen on

Facebook, where millions o Aricans network; they

can be seen in the increasing number o Arican

blogs and discussion orums. And these changes

are increasingly recognized by the members o theDiaspora, many o whom are returning home to

build their countries or to benet rom the oppor-

tunities. Technology supports many o these devel-

opments and Aricas 21st century will be a century o

technology-driven change. This book is dedicated

to that orce.

Recommended sources

The State o Arican Cities 2008 is an excel-

lent report summarizing the challenges and

opportunities o growing urban centres in

Arica. It is published by the United Nations

Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT)and available or download on its website.

(UN-HABITAT, 2008)

Lions on the move the progress and

potential o Arican economies, published

in 2010 by the McKinsey Global Institute,

provides an excellent summary o Aricas

economic rise. (MGI, 2010)

Arica Rising how 900 million Arican

consumers oer more than you think by

Vijay Mahajan provides an excellent, i

overoptimistic, insight into Arican consumer

behaviour and markets. (Mahajan, 2008)


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Chapter 2: Arican utures studies

25

Chapter 2:

AFricAnFutures studies

Author: Geci Karuri-Sebina


15/83


27

exploring Aricas uture. More recently, Aricas

positive economic perormance has received broad-

er attention, much o it triggered by a report rom

strategic consultancy McKinsey (2010), highlighting

the business opportunities on the continent.

A comprehensive study o Aricas uture would

combine and enrich these ragmented examples o

oresight with less measured trends and changes. It

would explore possible extreme events and surprises.

It would acknowledge the signicant dierences

between countries and cultures on the continent.

It would embed these in the context o a changing

world. Such a study has yet to be executed.

There are good reasons to include Arica when trying

to understand global utures:

Population and economics: The demographic and

economic developments on the continent, sum-

marized in the previous chapter, will increase the

global impact o the continent.

Climate change: Arica is an epicentre o climate

change impacts. The IPCC (2007) expects eects on

migration patterns, human health and economic

development. These are likely to have knock-on

eects on other world regions.

Food: Global ood yields are coming under pres-

sure. Causes include soil erosion, extreme weath-

er and a competition or arable land between

ood and non-ood agricultural products, such

as biouels and cotton. At the same time, the

number o people to be ed grows and average

calorie intake is on the rise. Aricas vast tracts o

arable land, much o it still unarmed, have thepotential to eed billions. However, this valu-

able resource might also cause intercontinental

confict, since cash crops are mostly sold on the

world market and Asian governments especially

are securing large areas o Arican land to eed

their populations in the coming decades.

Energy: There is a global need to reduce ossil

uel dependency while ensuring energy supplies.

Aricas potential to harvest renewable energy

rom solar, wind, water and biomass sources

is large enough or local supply and signicant

exports. Europes governments and energy giants

are already building the networks connecting the

This chapter provides a brie introduction to utures

thinking about and in Arica. For a long time, Arica

used to be a white spot on the world map o ormal

oresight. This has changed substantially during the

past twenty years. Ever more initiatives work on

Arican utures. The chapter rst explains the role

o Arica in global oresight projects, then provides

an overview o national and regional examples. It

concludes with refections on the state and uture

o Arican utures studies.

Arica and global uturesExploring the uture o the world is a tempting

challenge. Will the 21st century really be the Arican

century? Who will be the world powers in 2050? Howwill global environmental change evolve? Will there

be a clash o civilizations? The many books and re-

ports written to discuss the possible answers to these

and similar questions generally ignore Arica (Karuri,

2005). Where they do include Arica, the discussion

is oten based on broad assumptions or stereotypes.

In a highly infuential global strategic oresight study,

the US National Intelligence Council (2004) provides

an extreme example o this: most o the uncer-

tainty surrounding Arica over the next twenty years

concerns how bad things could possibly get. Cilliers

(2008) summarizes the underlying sentiment:

Arican developments will not become a sub-

stantive driver and actor in global scenarios

in the next two or three decades. [] O all the

continents, Arica hardly eatures as a actor in

most global projections. [] From Washington

it is, in many senses, as i the Arican continent

is not part o the world, except as a source ocommodities, or humanitarian considerations,

or as an object o international intervention to

halt the spread o instability.

However, Arica does receive topical attention rom

uturologists. Issue-specic studies project, or

example, the growth o mobile phone and internet

coverage, the spread o diseases or ongoing popula-

tion growth. Also, global institutions, such as the

UN and related agencies, the World Bank, the IMF or

the International Energy Agency, do include Arica

in their outlooks. These reports, based on statistical

estimates, are the most widely used sources when

DominantFutures

Thinking

Opportunity

Complexity

Epoch

Socio-Economic Development

Agricultural

Seasonal

Cyclic

Socio-Economic

Predictive

Linear

Knowledge

Foresight

Multiple scenarios

Traditionally, the role o the !X (Khoisan) shaman

or the Dogon priests has or centuries included

looking beyond the present and preparing com-

munities or what may be in store. Day et al. (2009)

propose that thinking about the uture has been

critical to the survival o indigenous peoples around

the world or ages. However, the complexity, rate,

requency and inter-dependence o change in the

global environment have altered. In an agrarian so-

ciety, natures cycle o seasonality is the dominant

preoccupation and planning ahead or the rains or

the harvest may have been an adequate logic. In

industrialized societies the time horizons expand

as technology and competition require longer-term

planning. In a modern knowledge society, uncer-

tainties are even higher and choices made todayrequently aect several uture generations. The

long view asks or innovative and robust oresight

tools. Figure 2-1 illustrates how oresight strategies

have adapted to this increase in complexity.

Especially during the past ty years, methods

or disciplined thinking about the uture have

improved signicantly in response to modern

challenges. Most large organizations now engage

oresight expertise to develop shared visions o

desirable utures or to prepare or possible u-

tures, desirable or not. A shared vision is a tool to

mobilize orces or moving in a positive direction.

two continents. Unortunately, Aricas potential

stands in stark contrast to the present continued

use o traditional biomass or domestic use, die-

sel generators, coal plants and nuclear ambitions.

Social: Aricas rail health status and systems,

evidenced by the doubtul prospects o achiev-

ing the minimum targets set out in the Millen-

nium Development Goals, are a matter o global

interest or several reasons, not the least is which

is the menace o new and globalzing pandemics.

At the same time, indigenous knowledge systems

and bio-prospecting oer old and new prospects

or improved health and longevity.

Resources: The technological gadgets o the global

knowledge economy rely heavily on Arican rare

earths and metals. There is quite a bit o Arica inevery iPhone, every laptop, every car and every

other piece o modern electronics.

Global conficts: Arica has, once again, become a

battleground between global vested interests.

The emerging conclusion must be that Aricas u-

ture matters globally.

An inventory o Arican oresightThe previous section complains about the neglect

o Arica in studies o global utures. This section

provides a preliminary overview o utures thinking

within Arica.

Figure 2-1: The evolution o oresight tools. Source: Day et al. (2009)


16/83


29

rian government upped the game and proposed

Vision 20:2020. In short, Nigeria is going to be

one o the top 20 economies in the world by

2020. However, despite its ambitious target, the

Vision lacks a ocus and specic targets. It is not

a vision that people can run with and there is no

way to evaluate progress as there is no timeline.

While the UNDP might have triggered a large num-

ber o visioning exercises, Arican oresight projects

and initiatives have grown ar wider. The ollowing

list might not be comprehensive, but it provides a

good impression o the diversity:

Regional institutions, like the Institute or GlobalDialogue and the Institute or Security Studies,

have conducted regional oresight exercises.

National institutions that have a signicant ore-

sight ocus include the Egyptian Centre or Future

Studies, a government think tank to Egypts cabi-

net ocused on issues related to economic, social

and political reorm, and the Kenya Institute or

Economic Aairs. The latter does not have a state

mandate, but undertakes national-scale oresight

projects in the public interest.

The private sector has also produced oresight

work. Most major corporations working in or with

Arica have developed utures intelligence. This

is most prominent in sectors with a long-term

concern, such as minerals, energy and nan-

cial services. The projects are mostly executed

by private-sector consultants, oten applying

methods derived rom established ormations

with international experience such as the Global

Business Network.International development institutions and think

tanks that have had an Arica utures ocus also

exist. In particular the Society or International

Development has been active in East Arica. UN

agencies (UNDP, UNAIDS, UNEP, UNIDO, UNESA, IPCC

etc.) have undertaken signicant and continual

oresight projects.

Foundations like the Rockeeller Foundation have

undertaken and stimulated Arican utures work.

The Rockeeller Foundation specically has Arican

grantees engaged in horizon scanning and trend

monitoring in Western Arican, Southern Arican

and the Greater Horn o East Arica regions. The

Preparing or possible utures helps to prepare or

uture eventualities, positive and negative.

The majority o systematic oresight projects in A-

rica has aimed to develop a vision or mobilization.

A rst continent-wide wave o national visioning

exercises was initiated by the UNDP with the estab-

lishment o the Arican Futures Institute in 1992. The

organization, which became an independent NGO

in 2004, assisted Arican countries in using ore-

sight in their long-range planning. Starting o with

Cte dlvoire, Mauritius, Gabon and Zambia as the

early pioneers in 1993/94, 27 Arican countries have

National Long-Term Perspective Studies underway

or completed over the past 18 years. Outputs o thisnature have included Rwandas Vision 2020, Kenyas

Vision 2030, Nigerias Vision 2020, Botswanas Vision

2016 and so orth. Formal research on the ecacy o

these visions is still to be conducted. Nevertheless,

some dierences between the dierent countries

are apparent.

In Rwanda and Botswana, these visions have

evolved to become crucial guides or develop-

ment, clearly communicating the governments

medium- and long-term priorities. Specic tar-

gets or the development o inrastructure, hous-

ing, ICT, education, health and more were derived

rom the visions and ullment by the responsible

government agencies is closely monitored.

Kenyas oresight has led to the establishment o

the Vision 2030 Delivery Secretariat. The organi-

zation was set up to co-ordinate the initiatives o

the responsible government ministries. While the

secretariat has urther developed and publicizedVision 2030, the eectiveness o the organization

has been limited so ar. What is called by cynics

the Vision 2030 Illusion Secretariat has yet to

build its track record.

Nigerias Vision 2020 was revived in 2005, when

investment bank Goldman Sachs listed the coun-

try as the only Arican member o the Next-11

countries. The Next-11 are emerging economies

that might ollow the growth pattern o the

better-known BRIC countries (Brazil, India and

China). The report stated that appropriate reorms

could make Nigeria a newly industrialized country

by 2025 (Government o Nigeria, 2010). The Nige-

contribute to their national policy process (Millen-

nium Project, 2008). In a historical analysis o the

role o oresight study in South Arica, Segal (2007),

identied dozens o major South Arican national

and some regional utures exercises dating back to

the 1970s, their number increasing exponentially

over time. It also indicated that an additional range

o specialized and closed oresight studies had been

carried out within the proprietary strategic planning

processes o corporations, banks and government

departments. South Arica also has the only known

utures postgraduate qualication on the continent

(MPhil at the Institute or Futures Research at the

University o Stellenbosch), and there are ew such

programmes even globally.

In 2009, Foresight or Development Arica was

also established with support rom the Rockeel-

ler Foundation, an initiative which is trying to be

an aggregator and knowledge management system

or Arican oresight content and networks. The

platorms library can be accessed online at www.

oresightordevelopment.org and currently com-

prises close to 200 public oresight products related

to Arica, about a third o which are South Arica o-

cused. Although, as this chapter has shown, South

Arica has tended to be possibly the most active

Arican country in terms o signicant engagement

with utures and oresight, it is also the case that

the current results may merely refect the limita-

tions in internet connectivity and online publishing

in Arican countries.

Reections on Arican oresight

Even the level o activity refected above, relative toEurope and the USA the volume o Arican utures

studies is limited. This tends to be the case with

most research o any kind regarding Arica. Relative

to the limited available resources and capacities,

however, the Arican utures community can be

considered to be extremely vibrant. Nevertheless,

there is more oresight developed on Arica than

in Arica (or even by Arica). International ac-

tors, ranging rom the UN to global corporations,

rom international NGOs to Western academia,

conduct the bulk o the available studies outside

South Arica. Methodologically, two extremes o

oresight methods dominate on the continent:

World Economic Forum has done general and

sector-specic oresight projects involving Arica

(e.g. in the mining sector).

Several academic institutions have engaged with

Arican utures. South Aricas Institute or Futures

Research (Stellenbosch University), the Frederick

S. Pardee Center or the Study o the Longer-

Range Future in the USA (University o Denver)

and the Finland Futures Research Centre (Univer-

sity o Turku) are examples.

International voluntary and proessional utures

associations such as the World Futures Society,

the World Future Studies Federation and Futuri-

bles have Arican participants, though not on any

signicant scale, possibly due to the cost and rel-evance o participation. The Millennium Project,

a global utures think tank, has Nodes (or active

networks) in Egypt, South Arica and Kenya.

Two recent conerences held in Arica on the sub-

ject o oresight indicated rising awareness and

interest in Arican utures. A 2007 Arican Futures

conerence convened by the South Arica Node

o the Millennium Project drew attendees rom

more than ten Arican countries. The conerence

ound that there was an urgent need to stimulate

more utures thinking and collective intelligence

given the magnitude, complexity and inter-state

dimensions o Aricas challenges. A workshop on

Arican utures convened by the World Economic

Forum and Oxord University in 2008 ound a high

level o activity and demand or public interest

pan-Arican scenarios. It also called or the es-

tablishment o communities o practice, as Arican

participants at the session were typically unaware

o each others related work, in some cases evenwithin the same country.

In South Arica oresight has had particular trac-

tion. It was one o the very rst nations in the

world successully to apply nation-wide scenario-

based discourses about its uture rom the late

1980s to the early 1990s (Spies, 2004). South Aricas

High Road/Low Road scenarios (Segal, 2007) and

Mont Fleur scenarios (Le Roux et al., 1992) were

prominent exercises that enjoy global recognition

in the oresight community. South Arica also ranks

among many leading countries in the world which

have uture-oriented strategy or oresight units to


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31

Thinking about the uture might not be bear-

able under such circumstances. The high degree

o uncertainty and the high likelihood o extreme

events might also lead to the conclusion that it is

impossible to develop plausible, let alone desirable,

utures. And even i one could succeed in this, the

requirements or creating or averting certain utures

may not be acceptable or possible or the protago-

nist.

The barriers to a oresight culture may lie even

deeper than that. In her book The Challenge or

Arica: A New Vision (2009), Nobel Prize Laure-

ate Wangari Maathai suggests moral, spiritual,

cultural and psychological reasons or the ailureto implement positive, long-term visions. Accord-

ing to Maathai, the deep psychological scars borne

(and dealt) by Aricans during years o colonialism

and through to a less-than-ideal post-colonial era

no doubt aect the psyche o Arica, the so-called

legacy o woes. Other cultural actors should also

not be underestimated (Stein, 2010). A mystic or

atalistic disposition, or example, which is not

uncommon in some Arican cultures, could nega-

tively aect the uture orientation o some socie-

ties. Importantly, the external locus o control or

the conceptualization o Aricas development path

since the 19th century has had the most signicant

impact on determining that path, and the pos-

sibility or impossibility o perceiving and crating

dierent utures.

To overcome this, John Ohiorhenuan proposes the

powerul metaphor o a sel-narrative to overcome

these obstacles. Such a narrative would have to beinormed by an awareness o contemporary trends

and uture possibilities in the world (Lombardo,

2007). He identies six essential virtues in the

development o a sel-narrative: sel-responsibility;

courage and determination; transcendence

dened as being dedicated to some worthy ideal

beyond ones sel, a preerable uture or human-

ity; the pursuit o truth and honesty; real cour-

age, which involves acknowledging and acing

the problems, risks and uncertainties o lie; and

wisdom, described as the capacity to apply deep

and comprehensive knowledge ethically or the

betterment o onesel and humanity in the uture.

quantitative/statistical modelling and scenario

building (Karuri-Sebina et al., 2008). Also, with the

exception o South Arica, visioning exercises seem

to be more common than exercises preparing or

possible surprises. Aricas oresight projects would

certainly benet rom applying a wider suite o

oresight methods and perhaps even the devel-

opment o new methods, tailored to its specic

context.

Although there is a sense that quite a lot o ore-

sight work has been done on or by Arica, there

has not been a systematic capturing and analy-

sis o this body o work regionally. Many o the

oresight products may also be proprietary, notpublically available or not published/disseminated

electronically. This constrains the ability to access

and assess Arican utures products. Evaluating the

impact o utures studies in Arica, the degree to

which visions have actually led to better decisions

and better outcomes, thereore remains a task or

the uture.

Given the persistence o many o Aricas challeng-

es, one could argue that a lack o long-term action

is apparent. Other long-term development indica-

tors support this view. Continued sub-optimal

investments in research and development, the poor

maintenance o inrastructure, weakened educa-

tion systems, degenerative agricultural practices

and mismanagement o public unds are tell-tale

signs that long-range planning and consideration

are not as embedded as they could be.

One reason or this apparent lack o applied ore-sight is that Arica continues to be preoccupied

with looking at its present and its past. Vital con-

temporary matters occupy government and public

resources, pushing uture problems or long-term

solutions down the list o priorities. In a personal

interview in July 2009, Kenyan media entrepreneur

Salim Amin illustrates the point:

I you ask me, where we are going to be in 15

years, I dont know. This country, or example,

could be burning in two years, literally could

be burnt to the ground, i we do not sort out

our politics now.

These virtues are critical ingredients to having an

Arica that does deeply and consistently think about

the uture. The recipe is not one that is only to be

served up to Arican leadership, but also to the ol-

lowership o the continent, who themselves must

participate in a new sel-narrative and culture o

oresight. Wangari Maathai supports this call by

declaring that Aricans need to think and act or

themselves. Only then would the uture be Aricas

to conceive, create and navigate.

Recommended sources

Foresight or Development is an emerging

knowledge-sharing platorm, and currently

the only open-access repository and social

network or oresight-related inormation

resources on Arica. It can be ound at:

www.oresightordevelopment.org

Breaking the Mould: The Role o Scenariosin Shaping South Aricas Future, authored

by Nick Segal or the South Arica Node o

the Millennium Project in 2007, is one o ew

analyses conducted on the role that oresight

has played in specic national development

trajectories on the continent. (Segal, 2007)

A Guide to Conducting Futures Studies in

Arica, published by Arican Futures investi-

gates various oresight methods and attempts

to highlight methods that appear best suited

to oresight in Arica. (Arican Futures et al.,

2002)

About the author

Geci Karuri-Sebina, Chairperson o the South

Arica Node o the Millennium Project, and

Research Associate at the Institute or Economic

Research on Innovation (IERI), Tshwane Univer-

sity o Technology, Pretoria, South Arica.

Email: [email protected]


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Chapter 3:exploringtechnologyFutures


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Chapter 3: Exploring technology utures

35

considered much more important than the transer

o physical technology. Strengthening educational

systems, as well as science communities, in devel-

oping countries became a primary objective. The

establishment and support o national Academies

o Science and partnerships between Arican and

Western or Asian universities are typical initiatives.

Currently, the benets o transerring physical

technology, especially in the orm o basic inra-

structure, is getting renewed attention. Road and

rail inrastructure, power plants and electricity net-

works, as well as ICT systems, are at the top o the

list o projects executed, oten by Chinese partners

contracted by Arican governments. That basic in-rastructure opens up a range o options or urther

development. Businesses can trade more eciently,

education and health services reach urther and

modern technology becomes easible.

On Arican technologyThis book is about utures o technology in Arica

and the question is justied whether there is such

a thing as Arican technology. One important answer

is that most technology is Arican, as Raq Philips,

a marketing technologist rom Cape Town, explains:

There is Arica in almost all technology. The

raw materials probably come rom Arica, get

to China, get processed and come back.

But while some development initiatives work on

technology specically designed or or in Arica,

such as solar cooking devices or special wood

stoves, most interviewees experience technologyas a global phenomenon. Raq again:

I dont want to separate Arican technology.

Technology is technology, it works where it

works, tech has no borders. With a ew ad-

justments, a technology that is going to solve

a problem can be adapted slightly to solve

another problem in a multi-world.

Nicholas Nesbitt, CEO o KenCall, agrees:

Its like the cappuccino coming rom New York

to Nairobi. Everything thats there will come

People have vivid dreams o what technology can

do or Arica. In Nairobi, Wambura summarizes the

essence o many o these dreams:

I think technology is an oppor tunity, not an

enemy o the people. Get the roads to where

the people are, get the mobile phones to people

and then see what they do with it. Some will

want to do business with it, others will just

think. So just connect them and then stand by,

because it is not so much about deciding what

people are going to do, but giving them the

tools to do things.

Ideas about which tools are most important to kick-start development or to open the door to oppor-

tunity have changed over time, but technology has

been an important element in the ambitions or the

uture o Arican countries or the past 50 years. In

the 1960s, most o the newly independent Arican

states ormulated the ambition to become indus-

trial societies, to converge technologically with the

ormer colonial powers. Projects such as the Ako-

sombo dam in Ghana were built to kick-start this

development by supplying sucient electricity or a

uture o processing natural resources and manu-

acturing. A critique o this capital-intensive and

large-scale approach was ormulated, among many

others, by E.F. Schumacher in his book Small Is

Beautiul (Schumacher, 1973). Schumacher proposed

so-called appropriate or intermediate technology

as an alternative. This would be labour intensive

instead o capital intensive, and ideally designed

and produced locally.

Many local NGOs and initiatives still ollow this ap-

proach today, producing relatively uel-ecient

stoves, nity arming tools or aordable pumps,

ood-drying installations, irrigation devices and solar

water-heating systems. Even though local successes

have been achieved, intermediate technology has no

documented impact on a continental scale. Because

o the ailure to transer technology to Arica or to

develop it locally, the ocus shited in the late 1990s

towards education and thus towards capacity building.

Under the heading o science and technology de-

velopment, the transer o knowledge and skills was

here and theres nothing dierent about the

DNA o the Arican villager rom the American

armer. They will get whatever is appropriate

or them.

The act that technology is global and that aspira-

tions worldwide are similar to a certain degree

helps in exploring technological utures in Arica.

Many o the advantages and disadvantages, po-

tentials and risks are global, and countries that

have already implemented a technology do provide

useul cases or countries that havent. But while

the consumption o technology might be global,

the innovation and production o technology are

not. The internet and the mobile are not some-thing that started in Arica. The recent technological

change largely arose on the back o somebody elses

innovations. Chapter 9 explores, among other is-

sues, what is required to change that. For now, the

technological modernization o Arica gets ar too

little local input.

On the speed o technology uturesOne o the most dicult aspects in exploring

utures is getting the timelines right. How ast will

a trend evolve, when will it reach saturation level?

With a relative lack o data and no analogous de-

velopments in the past, estimating speeds becomes

even more challenging or Arica. Current signals are

conusing. Some changes happen very ast. The CEO

o a Kenyan company gives an example:

My assistant and lots o people at work,

theyre on Twitter and theyre Tweeting all day

long about whats happening. No one evenknew what Twitter was, what is it, July? They

didnt even know what Twitter was in March.

One obvious driver o technological change is its

useulness, as Sheila Ochugboju explains:

The beautiul thing about Arica is that we

are early adopters o technology that solves

problems. We do not have as many cultural

barriers as I see in Europe. There you can com-

ortably use a piece o lower technology and

keep on with your lie another ten years, and

not adopt the latest thing. Because you can

still get along. But in Arica we are absolutely

hungry or the latest thing. You can give a

armer a phone, and you say you can nd out

what the prices are at market, just press here;

he will take it.

And the delay in transporting small-scale technol-

ogy rom Europe to Kenya is negligible. Nicholas

Nesbitt enjoys bringing the latest technology to

Kenya:

The benet we have right now is, we dont

have to wait to participate in the development

o technology. You can buy it in London one

day, and it can be used here in Kenya today. Iit is on the internet, as soon as it is released you

can use it right away. You dont have to wait! I

sound very excited and I am very excited.

However, the enthusiasm about ast-moving tech-

nologies should not overrule the act that many

technological domains are still stagnating in Arica.

Access to electricity, or example, has hardly im-

proved over the past years, as investment, construc-

tion and maintenance have been neglected. And

even or the ast-moving ICT industry, the current

speed might slow down uture dynamics, as Salim

Amin explains:

The advantage that weve always had is

that by the time a technology gets here it has

morphed itsel to its applications. We dont go

through the teething problems o the technol-

ogy. We get the best or the latest model. But

then we oten get stuck with that model. Wedont actually evolve as the technology evolves.

There are several ways that have been used in this

STT oresight to sit through the timelines. Some o

these are sel-evident: it takes at least ve years

to build a power plant rom scratch, so energy is

unlikely to change dramatically within the next

ve years in a region unless plans or building are

in progress already. For international transport

inrastructure, this time span is even longer. For ICT,

on the other hand, ve years is already well beyond

the planning horizon o most market players. Things

can happen more quickly in this eld.


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Chapter 3: Exploring technology utures

37

external support, but its scalability and sel-

suciency are still uncertain. An example are

the household biogas installations o the young

engineer Olatunbosun Obayom in Nigeria, which

produce gas suitable or a cooking stove rom

human aeces. Another example is Googles SMS

search. In Uganda, the company introduced an

SMS interace or its search engine. It allows the

user to send a query and receive results by SMS,

no internet or data access required. A couple o

prototypes o a seed o change will have been

installed, the idea is technologically convincing

and the remaining obstacles seem surmountable,

but momentum is lacking. Seeds o change are

worth observing when thinking about medium-term technological utures, because they are the

universe o practical possibilities.

A trend is a type o project or product that is im-

plemented by several competing actors, possibly

in dierent ways. An example would be low-cost

satellite connectivity. A couple o initiatives are

currently building satellites with the purpose o

serving rural areas in the global south. Their spe-

cic technologies dier, they compete with each

other and more than one consortium has enough

trust in the potential o the technology to suc-

ceed or them to invest in it. Trends oten seem

obvious to those who are proessionally inte-

rested in the given sector, but much less visible to

outsiders. Making trends visible and putting them

in context is one o the challenges and values o

comprehensive utures studies.

A megatrend is a type o project or product where

many competing initiatives scramble to imple-

ment it as quickly as possible. Mobile money isa prime example. Hundreds o mobile phone

providers, banks, money-transer companies and

independent service providers are rushing to roll

out the best technology to transer money rom

one mobile phone to another, between mobile

phones and bank accounts, or between any two

bank accounts using the mobile phone. The

level o momentum in this sector, the number o

actors, the amount o resources and the current

success o these systems make megatrends strong

predictors or the medium-term uture. Its not a

question o whether a megatrend happens, but

exactly how ast and which horse will win.

Also, some trends depend on each other. Indus-

trial manuacturing is unlikely to rise quickly while

energy supply remains a limiting actor. Only on the

longer term can such obstacles be overcome.

Furthermore, in interviews with those responsible

or building roads or power plants, one can oten

elicit the level o trust the interviewees have in the

developments they describe. The dierence between

what is planned on paper and what is actually hap-

pening can be small or large, and those close to the

development usually can estimate the size o the gap

quite accurately. Scale, however, is the most impor-

tant criterion or establishing timelines.

On scale and technology uturesIn international publications on Arica, little die-

rence is made between inspiring, but small-scale,

individual ideas and pan-Arican megatrends.

The installation o a containerized classroom o

computers in rural Ghana is reported in the same

manner as the massive leaps in connectivity that

Arica is undergoing. The rst aects the lives o a

small community and requires an investment o

several thousand US dollars, the second aects the

lives o the majority on the continent

futures of technology in africa

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