enrollment plans and demographic update nate johnson executive director, planning and analysis march...
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Enrollment Plans and Demographic Update
Nate JohnsonExecutive Director, Planning and Analysis
March 27, 2008
Enrollment Plans: Balancing Capacity and Demand
2
• Population projections for Florida have been revised downward
• Demand for SUS enrollment will continue to grow, but not as fast
• The impact of changing race/ethnic mix in Florida is uncertain
• Funded capacity is the limiting constraint on growth
Population Projections Have Been Revised Downward Over the Last
18 Months
3
18.719.1
22.5
20.7
18.9
21.6
20.0
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Million
s
Oct. 2006 Oct. 2007 Feb. 2008
Impact on Enrollment Demand
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• ~ 3.8% lower growth than originally predicted for 2012
• ~ 4.4% lower growth by 2017
Moderate Growth Still Likely in Key Feeder Populations
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Projected Growth in Key Populations
90%
100%
110%
120%New BrightFutures Students
Public HSGraduates
Lower (18-19)
Upper (20-24)
Beg Grad (20-34)
Adv Grad (25-44)
School District Enrollments Suggest Varying Impacts by
Region
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Shrinking K-12 enrollments, forecasts down: Dade, Broward, Orange, Palm Beach, Duval, Pinellas, Seminole, Volusia, Collier, Escambia
Still steady or growing K-12 but not as fast as forecast: Hillsborough, Lee, Pasco, Osceola, Sarasota, Manatee, Lake
Steady or growing K-12, forecasts steady or up: Polk, St. Lucie, Many Rural/Suburban N. Florida Counties
Projected Enrollment Based on Revised Population Projections
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2007 2012 2027
Lower 94,000
96,000
110,00
0
Upper
139,00
0
149,00
0
164,00
0
Beginning Grad 43,000
46,000
52,000
Advanced Grad 12,000
13,000
15,000
Unclassified 13,000
14,000
16,000
Total
301,00
0
317,00
0
357,00
0
Some Higher Education Analysts Suggest Race/Ethnicity Will Have
Major Impact
8
Ratios of 2007 SUS Enrollment to 2007 Florida Black/Hispanic Population
Total Black HispanicLower Division Students per
1000 18-19 Year Olds
196
149 169 Upper Division Students per
1000 20-24 Year Olds
116
73 92 Beginning Grad Students
Per 1000 20-34 Year Olds
12
7 6
Advanced Grad Students Per 1000 25-44 Year Olds
3
1 1
Unclassified Students per 1000 20-44 Year Olds
2
1 2
Projected SUS Enrollment Based on Current Participation Rates
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260,000
280,000
300,000
320,000
340,000
360,000
380,000
Age Only 301,000 317,000 357,000
Age andRace/Ethnicity
301,000 313,000 343,000
2007 2012 2027
Demographics Alone May Not Determine Growth Rates
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237,000 220,000
301,000
What Would2007 Enrollmentbe at 1990 Age
GroupParticipation
Rates?
What Would2007 Enrollment
be at 1990ParticipationRates by AgeGroup and
Race/Ethnicity?
Actual Fall 2007Enrollment
Other Factors Could Drive Demand Higher
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• Improvements in K-14 pipeline
• Increasing proportion of HS graduates with Bright Futures
• Weak economy (student demand for graduate and professional programs)
• Strong economy (need for highly educated population)
• Improvements in retention rates– 2/3 of enrollments are retained students– 1/3 are new each year
Funded Capacity is the Limiting Constraint
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• Assuming . . .
– 0% state funds increases
– 3% inflation
– 7% tuition increases
• Enrollment would have to decline 1% annually to maintain constant dollar funding per student
Amended Enrollment Plan for 2008-09
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• Assumes no funding available for growth in the short term
• Universities expected to manage enrollments based on that assumption
• Can be revisited as situation warrants
• Long-term approach to growth funding to be recommended as part of appropriate and predictable funding