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Economic & Fiscal Impact
Demographic Analysis
Economic Development
LONG-TERM DEMOGRAPHIC AND ENROLLMENT UPDATE KYRENE SCHOOL DISTRICT
FINAL REPORT
PREPARED FOR:
KYRENE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DISTRICT #28 8700 S. KYRENE RD. TEMPE, AZ 85284
NOVEMBER 28, 2007
ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 1 2.0 EXISTING CONDITIONS ......................................................................................................... 2
2.1 ENROLLMENT.................................................................................................................... 2 2.2 HOUSING CONSTRUCTION............................................................................................. 7 2.3 RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL ............................................................... 8
3.0 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS............................................................................................... 12 3.1 DISTRICT-LEVEL ENROLLMENT ................................................................................... 12 3.2 SECTION-LEVEL ENROLLMENT .................................................................................... 16 3.3 OUT OF DISTRICT ENROLLMENT.................................................................................. 19 3.4 TOTAL ENROLLMENT ...................................................................................................... 20 4.0 CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................................... 21 APPENDIX A: CASE STUDY ANALYSIS .............................................................................. 22
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1.0 INTRODUCTION This report presents the results of an update of a study commissioned by the Kyrene School District to examine long term demographic and enrollment trends in the District for facility and other planning purposes. The study was necessitated by several years of declining enrollment, and the need to better understand how to best use the existing built space, and vacant land, now and in the future. This update provides long-term enrollment projections for the district overall, and for sections (square miles) inside the district. The enrollment projections prepared for this study separate in-district versus out-of-district enrollment because students from outside the District have become a significant share of the total student body. At the beginning of the current school year about 3,200 Kyrene students, (18.1 percent) lived outside the district boundaries. The primary focus of the research for this study is on the in-district student population, since the future population can reasonably be predicted based on demographics and housing characteristics. Case study analyses on long-term student generation trends in predictive neighborhoods, first performed for the Kyrene School District in 1998 and later updated, provide additional insight into long-term trends. However, accounting for out-of-district enrollment is also important since it represents a good proxy for the approximately 3,400 (18.9 percent) elementary school age persons living in the Kyrene district who do not currently attend Kyrene schools. The great exchange of students between types of providers (districts, charters, parochial and home school) and between school districts may increase student achievement, but it greatly complicates the task of projecting enrollment, and hence facility planning. The information and observations contained in this report are based on our present knowledge of the land use and development patterns of the area under analysis, the current physical and socioeconomic conditions of the affected areas, and regional forecasts. Estimates and projections made in this report are based on hypothetical assumptions. However, even if the assumptions outlined in this report occur, there will usually be differences between the estimates and projections and the actual results because events and circumstances frequently do not occur precisely as expected. Applied Economics is under no obligation to update this report for events occurring after the date of its release.
1.1 Report Organization The balance of this report is presented in four sections including: Section 2.0, Existing Conditions, reviews the past and current condition of the Kyrene School District in terms of demographics, enrollment, housing construction and development potential. This section provides valuable insight into the current situation, and highlight key data sources and concepts. Section 3.0 presents long term enrollment projections based on the information compiled in Sections 2.0 and a previously researched case study. Projections are provided for the in-district area as a whole and by section, as well as for out-of-district enrollment. Conclusions of the study are provided in Section 4.0 to help reduce the technical information to the points that seem most germane to the future of the Kyrene School District. A case study analysis of older developments that are similar to parts of the Kyrene School District is presented in Appendix A. The purpose of this section is to examine how long enrollment is likely to decline, and how much it may decline during that period. This analysis was originally completed by Applied Economics for the district in 1998 and later updated from available Census data.
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2.0 EXISTING CONDITIONS
2.1 ENROLLMENT Enrollment in the Kyrene School District rose very rapidly during the late 1980’s and early 1990’s driven by new home construction, reaching a maximum of about 19,500 students during the 2000/01 school year. At that time, about 19,050 students came from within the District boundaries, about 430 (2.2 percent of enrollment) came from outside. Since 2000/01 enrollment from within district boundaries has declined by a total of about 4,400 students, with annual losses exceeding 500 students in six of the years since 2000/01, including a loss of over 900 students for the 2006/07 school year. During this period, the district’s effort to attract students from outside the District have been successful at increasing that population to over 3,200 students in the current year, accounting for about 18 percent of enrollment, largely offsetting the losses from within the district as illustrated in Figure 1.
FIGURE 1 DISTRICT ENROLLMENT: 1993/94 THROUGH 2007/08
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
In District Out of District
Source: Kyrene School District.
The decline in enrollment within the District was preceded by declines in the lower grades beginning as early as 1998/99 as shown in Figure 2, which illustrates the historic distribution of District enrollment by grade cohort. For this purpose, the grades are grouped into equal size cohorts representing three grades each, to give further insight into the characteristics of enrollment. The graph shows significant shifts in the composition of enrollment by grade cohort over the past several years. Through 1997/98 the Kindergarten through 2nd grade cohort was the largest of the three, reaching maximum of about 6,300 students. After 1997/98, the 3rd to 5th grade enrollment continued to grow for three more years, reaching a maximum of about 6,700 students in 2000/01, when the in-district enrollment peaked at just over 19,000. Due to attrition, the 6th to 8th grade cohort peaked just one year later at about 6,700 students as well, and has continued to exceed the size of the lower two grade cohorts.
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FIGURE 2
DISTRIBUTION OF ENROLLMENT BY GRADE: 1993/94 TO 2005/06
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,500
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
K-2 3-5 6-8
Source: Kyrene School District, October 2007.
This same general pattern is exhibited in most suburban school districts with the peak school age population occurring soon after major residential construction, and the overall age of the population steadily increasing over time as some original residents remain in homes with older children or no children. This decline can be lessened, and in some cases even reversed in areas with a high housing turn-over rate and/or changing demographics. This is especially true in areas with a large proportion of rental and multifamily housing, which the Kyrene School District does not have. Understanding how enrollment at the district is behaving is important, but analyzing the trends for smaller areas of geography provides valuable insight into where we are today, and what is likely to occur in the future. For this study, enrollment information by section (square mile) was compiled using quarter-section or “grid” data received by the consultant while serving the Kyrene Elementary and Tempe Union school districts. Using this data it was possible to analyze enrollment by section for the period from the fall of 1993/04 through the fall of 2007/08. During this period, all 47 inhabited sections in the District appear to have peaked in terms of K-8 enrollment, and are in various stages of decline. It is interesting to note that the total maximum enrollment by section is about 21,400 in-district students, which is about 12 percent higher than the experienced peak in-district total enrollment of 19,055 students in 2000/01. This illustrates the fact that different areas peak at different times, and are in different stages of their life-cycle. The data from this analysis is illustrated in a series of three maps of the sections (Figures 3 through 5) showing current enrollment, current enrollment as a percent of maximum enrollment and the average age of housing by section. The distribution of current enrollment by section shows significant student populations both east and west of Interstate 10, with some sections containing more than 500 students. However, the sections west of Interstate 10 are still much closer to their peak enrollment levels as illustrated in Figure 4, implying more potential for declines in the future.
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FIGURE 3
CURRENT STUDENT COUNT BY SECTION
Altadena
Sierra
Monte Vista
Estrella Lagos
Milenio
Esperanza
Colina Manitas
Mirada
Paloma
Sureno
Aprende
CielloMariposa
Norte
Ninos
WaggonerLomas
207
230
220
335 231
217
323
331 234332 334333
326
219
208
336
328
218 214
209
215
223
227
210 212
226
313
236
229
233
225
324
211
325
232
216
235
222
228327329
221
213
224
19TH
AV
7TH
AV
7TH
ST
16TH
ST
24TH
ST
32ND
ST
40TH
ST
48TH
ST
PRIE
ST D
R
KYR
ENE
RD
RUR
AL R
D
MCC
LIN
TOCK
DR
LOO
P 10
1
CHANDLER BLVD
RAY RD
WARNER RD
ELLIOT RD
GUADALUPE RDStudents
Under 100100 - 250250 - 400400 - 550Over 550
FIGURE 4 CURRENT STUDENT COUNT AS PERCENT OF SECTION MAXIMUM
Altadena
Sierra
Monte Vista
Estrella Lagos
Milenio
Esperanza
Colina Manitas
Mirada
Paloma
Sureno
Aprende
CielloMariposa
Norte
Ninos
WaggonerLomas
207
230
220
335 231
217
323
331 234332 334333
326
219
208
336
328
218 214
209
215
223
227
210 212
226
313
236
229
233
225
324
211
325
232
216
235
222
228327329
221
213
224
19TH
AV
7TH
AV
7TH
ST
16TH
ST
24TH
ST
32N
D ST
40TH
ST
48TH
ST
PRIE
ST D
R
KYR
ENE
RD
RUR
AL R
D
MCC
LIN
TOCK
DR
LOO
P 10
1
CHANDLER BLVD
RAY RD
WARNER RD
ELLIOT RD
GUADALUPE RD
ShareNAUnder 0.660.66 - 0.750.75 - 0.90Over 0.90
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FIGURE 5 MEDIAN AGE OF HOUSING
Altadena
Sierra
Monte Vista
Estrella Lagos
Milenio
Esperanza
Colina Manitas
Mirada
Paloma
Sureno
Aprende
CielloMariposa
Norte
Ninos
WaggonerLomas
207
230
220
335 231
217
323
331 234332 334333
326
219
208
336
328
218 214
209
215
223
227
210 212
226
313
236
229
233
225
324
211
325
232
216
235
222
228327329
221
213
224
19TH
AV
7TH
AV
7TH
ST
16TH
ST
24TH
ST
32ND
ST
40TH
ST
48TH
ST
PRIE
ST D
R
KYR
ENE
RD
RU
RA
L R
D
MC
CLI
NTO
CK
DR
LOO
P 10
1
CHANDLER BLVD
RAY RD
WARNER RD
ELLIOT RD
GUADALUPE RDYears
Under 1010 - 1515 - 2020 - 25Over 25
While the final degree of decline in enrollment in each section is influenced by a number of factors as mentioned above, the rate of decline is closely linked to the age of the housing stock. As shown in Figure 5, the majority of the populated part of the district contains housing that is less than 15 years old. As we will show in the case study analysis in Appendix A, this implies that about 10 more years of decline is likely in many parts of the District. However, the rate of decline will lessen over time. As in-district enrollment has declined, the number of students from outside the district has been increased to maintain stability. Data for out-of-district enrollment shows it increasing from about 300 students in 1997/98 to over 3,200 students in 2007/08. Understanding the characteristics and source of this increase is important to projecting total enrollment for the District. Table 1 shows the current count of out-of-district students by grade and originating city. The majority of the students come from portions of Phoenix and Chandler just outside the Kyrene district, and from other southeast Valley cities including Tempe, Mesa and Gilbert. The students are fairly evenly distributed by grade level, with slightly older rather than younger students coming in from Maricopa. The most distant originating place, which also provides 25 percent of the total out-of-district enrollment, is Maricopa where hyper-growth and inadequate facilities and programs have pushed parents to seek other providers, even if the distance is relatively great. That, however, puts this source of students at risk should Maricopa Unified improve its facilities and programs. As shown in Table 2, slightly over two-thirds of the 2,237 out-of-district student increase over the past five years has come from Phoenix (including the area west of 19th Avenue) and Maricopa with 701 and 805 new students, respectively. Growth from areas of Phoenix outside the Kyrene School District has been fueled primarily by parents in south Phoenix seeking alternatives due to problems with the Roosevelt Elementary School District. The area west of 19th Avenue has generated about 120 new students during the period.
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2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 Change (03/04 - 07/08)City Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Percent of
Maricopa 28 2.8% 142 9.7% 330 15.6% 533 20.6% 833 25.6% 805 2875.0% 36.0%Phoenix 192 18.9% 347 23.7% 564 26.7% 698 27.0% 761 23.4% 569 296.4% 25.4%Chandler 352 34.7% 378 25.9% 454 21.5% 470 18.2% 499 15.3% 147 41.8% 6.6%Tempe 150 14.8% 200 13.7% 254 12.0% 265 10.2% 327 10.1% 177 118.0% 7.9%Mesa 101 10.0% 127 8.7% 149 7.1% 137 5.3% 166 5.1% 65 64.4% 2.9%Laveen-West Valley 17 1.7% 37 2.5% 63 3.0% 117 4.5% 158 4.9% 141 829.4% 6.3%Gilbert 73 7.2% 78 5.3% 94 4.5% 95 3.7% 137 4.2% 64 87.7% 2.9%West of 19th Avenue 44 4.3% 72 4.9% 100 4.7% 145 5.6% 176 5.4% 132 300.0% 5.9%Queen Creek 13 1.3% 25 1.7% 35 1.7% 41 1.6% 75 2.3% 62 476.9% 2.8%Other Pinal County 13 1.3% 25 1.7% 26 1.2% 45 1.7% 68 2.1% 55 423.1% 2.5%Other Southeast Valley 16 1.6% 19 1.3% 24 1.1% 29 1.1% 34 1.0% 18 112.5% 0.8%Northeast Valley 15 1.5% 12 0.8% 16 0.8% 12 0.5% 17 0.5% 2 13.3% 0.1%
Total 1,014 100.0% 1,462 100.0% 2,109 100.0% 2,587 100.0% 3,251 100.0% 2,237 220.6% 100.0%
Sources: Kyrene School District; Applied Economics, 2007
TABLE 1
OUT-OF-DISTRICT STUDENTS BY GRADE AND ORIGINATING CITY Percent of
City K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th Total Total
Maricopa 86 82 84 97 95 74 142 94 79 833 25.6%Phoenix 80 90 70 77 88 88 91 96 94 774 23.8%Chandler 73 66 56 64 43 61 59 40 37 499 15.3%Tempe 40 26 40 25 28 21 49 45 53 327 10.1%Mesa 25 23 24 18 14 21 19 15 7 166 5.1%Laveen 19 16 20 18 14 10 12 13 16 138 4.2%Gilbert 19 22 20 14 22 12 14 6 8 137 4.2%West of 19th Avenue 19 20 18 17 18 17 20 17 17 163 5.0%Queen Creek 14 10 11 7 10 5 5 4 9 75 2.3%Other Pinal County 12 8 9 7 6 10 4 5 7 68 2.1%Guadalupe 1 3 4 3 4 7 3 3 6 34 1.0%West Valley 2 2 5 4 1 1 0 0 5 20 0.6%Northeast Valley 1 1 1 3 4 3 0 0 4 17 0.5%
Total 391 369 362 354 347 330 418 338 342 3,251 100.0%12.0% 11.4% 11.1% 10.9% 10.7% 10.2% 12.9% 10.4% 10.5% 100.0%
Sources: Kyrene School District; Applied Economics, 2007 TABLE 2
OUT-OF-DISTRICT ENROLLMENT GROWTH
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2.2 HOUSING CONSTRUCTION In the past five years there have only been about 900 housing units constructed within the boundaries of the Kyrene Elementary School District. (See Table 3.) This accounts for only about 62 percent of the housing starts in the area serviced by the District, as well over 500 housing units were constructed in the Foothills area just west of the District during that same period. If the District and the unassigned area to the west are considered together, each contributed about the same amount of single family housing, approximately 40 percent each, while multifamily housing in the District accounted for about 22 percent of the total. The range in types of housing has been narrowing as the District approaches residential build-out and nearly 70 percent of the single family housing constructed has been low density, under 3.5 units per acre. Currently, most construction is concentrated in the Foothills 80 and Foothills Reserve developments west of the District boundary, with the balance of projects dispersed around the District, sometimes consisting of a few remaining lots in nearly built-out subdivisions.
TABLE 3 NEW HOUSING STARTS: 2002/03 – 2006/07
KYRENE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DISTRICT & FOOTHILLS AREA Total Past
2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 5 Years
In DistrictSingle Family .1 - 2 du/ac 37 14 60 47 20 178 Single Family 2.01 - 3.5 du/ac 13 9 19 6 6 53 Single Family 3.51 - 4.5 du/ac 31 - 1 21 28 81 Single Family 4.51 - 6 du/ac 21 114 65 35 53 288 Total Single Family 102 137 145 109 107 600
Multifamily to 12 du/ac - 106 44 53 - 203 Multifamily 12.0 du/ac & Over - - 116 - - 116 Total Multifamily - 106 160 53 - 319
Total In District 102 243 305 162 107 919
Unassigned Area (Foothills)Single Family .1 - 2 du/ac - 3 45 110 42 200 Single Family 2.01 - 3.5 du/ac 107 176 74 - - 357 Total Unassigned 107 179 119 110 42 557
Total 209 422 424 272 149 1,476
Source: Landiscor; Applied Economics, 2007.
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2.3 RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL The Kyrene Elementary School District currently contains an identified residential potential of about 1,200 housing units, with about 2,100 more units located in unassigned areas adjacent to the western boundary of the District. (See Table 4 and Maps 1 & 2.) Of approximately 3,200 total units to impact the District in the future, only 35 percent are actually located in the District. This estimate may change over time as plans are altered, but there is little additional developable residential land within the District. The unassigned area west of 19th Avenue could become part of either the Kyrene or Laveen District. Given the proximity of the developable area to the Kyrene District (as compared to the Laveen District), the mountainous area separating it from Laveen, and the lack of good transportation corridors to the north, we think Kyrene would be the only logical choice for assignation and assume students from that area would attend Kyrene schools. The timing categories provided are an estimate of when development is expected to begin, with actual construction taking place over time. Additional potential could be realized if parcels currently planned for commercial development were rezoned for residential use. While this is possible, current conditions in residential and commercial markets limit the likelihood. If such a change were made, the residential use would likely be for high-density multifamily with little impact on enrollment.
TABLE 4 POTENTIAL NEW HOUSING UNITS BY TYPE
KYRENE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DISTRICT & FOOTHILLS AREA Active Total
Projects 1 year 2 - 3 years 3 - 5 years 5+ years Units
In-DistrictSingle Family .1 - 2 du/ac 53 - - 10 40 103 Single Family 2.01 - 3.5 du/ac 11 - 36 - - 47 Single Family 3.51 - 4.5 du/ac 17 88 - - 20 125 Single Family 4.51 - 6 du/ac 218 - 211 - - 429 Multifamily to 12 du/ac 108 - - - - 108 Multifamily 12.0 du/ac & Over - - 199 142 - 341 Total In-District 407 88 446 152 60 1,153
Unassigned Area (Foothills)Single Family .1 - 2 du/ac 93 - 180 350 64 687 Single Family 3.51 - 4.5 du/ac - - - 575 475 1,050 Multifamily 12.0 du/ac & Over - - - - 374 374 Total Unassigned Area 93 - 180 925 913 2,111
Total 500 88 626 1,077 973 3,264
Sources: City of Tempe; City of Phoenix; City of Chandler; Town of Guadalupe;Gila River Indian Community; Landiscor; Applied Economics, 2007.
Vacant Land by Development Priority
Current activity is very low due to the lack of large development parcels and the slowdown in the housing market in general. Of the 299 single family units in active projects within the District, 202 of the units are contained in two projects: Tempe Village (#70) and Foothills Club West parcels 20 & 25 (#76). The remaining active single family is scattered throughout the District. With the lack of vacant land and the poor market conditions, only one project, Desert Rose (#58) in Phoenix on the northern edge of the
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District is expected to begin construction within the year. Site work has already been done for the 88 house lots. The unorganized area along Pecos Road west of 19th Avenue offers the only remaining large development parcels that will impact the District. Construction at Foothills Reserve (#86) and Foothills 80 (#83) is nearing completion, with only 93 lots remaining. There is a 38 acre parcel (#84) that has some potential for development, though limited by topography and the expected Pecos Freeway alignment. The same landowner, Danville Land Investments, owns other nearby parcels of land totaling approximately 175 acres, but topography and lack of access would make development difficult. The state of Arizona owns land totaling approximately 600 acres on the north side of Pecos, between 19th and 27th Avenue alignments. This land, referred to as the South Mountain 620, has been the subject of negotiations and plans, followed by negotiations to revise plans, since its original zoning in 1993 for 2,400 housing units. A development agreement in 2001 capped the number of single family lots at 1,050, and while that plan is still in effect, State Land Department auctions in 2001-2002 drew no bids. A new development agreement in 2003 allowed for 1,400 single family lots, but was not approved by the City of Phoenix. The latest development agreement is still pending, and allows for 1,050 lots south of Chandler Boulevard (alignment), as before. North of the alignment, if the City is not able to purchase all of the acreage for open space and a park/municipal facility, some of the property could be developed to 350 lots. This would allow a total of 1,400 single family units. Given the adjacent uses, similar topography, and the high expense involved, it seems reasonable that the 350 lot potential on the north side of Chandler Boulevard will develop. There are two other parcels, with R-2 and C-2 zoning. Multifamily is expected for the R-2 parcel, with the C-2 planned for a neighborhood retail center, though that could also be developed as multifamily. There is no way to know how many units could develop due to the Pecos right-of-way and the uncertainty of the final use of the C-2 parcel. Our current estimate is 374 units, assuming a fairly high density project, with an adjacent retail center. This property is scheduled for auction during the 2007/08 fiscal year, but is seems doubtful that will occur. The current poor state of the real estate market reduces the need for additional purchases at a time many builders are trying to sell property. As the market is slowing, new appraisals are in order, which will take time, and affect the potential purchase of open space land by the City. After purchase, planning approvals and preparations would delay actual house construction for another 18 months to 2 years. Development on the South Mountain 620 is not expected to occur for the next three to five years. This timing could be delayed further if the current real estate downturn worsens significantly or extends beyond 2009.
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State Land 620
FoothillsReserve
FoothillsEighty
Foothills Club West
West 320 (Remainder)
19TH
7TH
7TH
16TH
24TH
32N
D
KY
REN
E
RU
RA
L
MC
CL
INTO
CK
PRIC
E
27TH
35TH
43R
D
GUADALUPE
ELLIOT
WARNER
RAY
CHANDLER
PECOS
GERMANN
QUEEN CREEK
CHANDLER HEIGHTS
SOUTH MOUNTAIN PARK
GILA RIVER INDIAN
COMMUNITY
40TH
48TH
PRIE
ST
BASELINE
85
9087
89
65
83
82
86 79
58
6984
57
34
70
77
20
73
22
71
78
60
56
23
8881
8063
66
68
62
74
75
67
59 55
72
40
4
76
Land UseSingle FamilyTownhouseMultifamilyCommercialIndustrialOfficePublic FacilitiesSchoolsOpen Space
Maricopa School Districts
MAP 1 LAND USE
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State Land 620
FoothillsReserve
FoothillsEighty
Foothills Club West
West 320 (Remainder)
19TH
7TH
7TH
16TH
24TH
32N
D
KY
REN
E
RU
RA
L
MC
CL
INTO
CK
PRIC
E
27TH
35TH
43R
D
GUADALUPE
ELLIOT
WARNER
RAY
CHANDLER
PECOS
GERMANN
QUEEN CREEK
CHANDLER HEIGHTS
SOUTH MOUNTAIN PARK
GILA RIVER INDIAN
COMMUNITY
40TH
48TH
PRIE
ST
BASELINE
85
9087
89
65
83
82
86 79
58
6984
57
34
70
77
20
73
22
71
78
60
56
23
8881
8063
66
68
62
74
75
67
59 55
72
40
4
76
TimingBuilt OutActiveWithin 1 Year2 to 3 Years3 to 5 YearsAfter 5 YearsUnknownNon-residential
Maricopa School Districts
MAP 2 DEVELOPMENT TIMING
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3.0 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Using the collected historic enrollment information, and the results of the case study analysis, it is possible to develop reasonable long-term projections through 2020/21 for the Kyrene School District. As per the historic data, these projections separate the in-district and out-of-district components of enrollment. The majority of the analysis focuses on the in-district component since it is larger, and more predictable than the out-of-district component. The in-district projections represent a “mostly-likely” scenario of future enrollment based on trends in the size of the student population, and the rate of enrollment of those persons in Kyrene Schools. Through this process, projections of enrollment by section were developed, and are presented in maps depicting future shifts in enrollment within the district. 3.1 District-level Enrollment The long-term in-district enrollment projections were developed using two models, one employing a District-level top-down approach, and another using a section-level (square mile) bottom-up approach. The top-down approach was based on projections of households, combined with trends on the school-age portion of the population. The bottom-up analysis was based on the enrollment data by section complied for the period from the fall of 1993/94 through the fall of 2007/08. The bottom-up model used trends in the number of enrolled students by section, combined with age of the housing stock in each section and data from the case study analysis. Detailed findings from both were used to develop a single consensus forecast, the results of which are presented here. Demographic estimates for the district show population declining slightly from 2000 to 2007, while the number of housing units and households increased slightly. The projections over the next thirteen years show continued population decline as shrinking of household sizes (Population per household on Table 5) out-weigh the number of expected new households. Currently, the district contains about 148,100 people in about 61,500 households for an average household size of 2.53 persons. This is down about 0.27 persons per unit from the peak in 1995, the majority of whom were school-age persons. Population per household should decline more slowly as time goes on, reaching a minimum of about 2.43 persons per unit.
TABLE 5 DISTRICT-LEVEL DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
Year Population Units Occupancy Households Pop/HH
1990 84,894 33,494 92.4% 30,944 2.7431995 138,163 51,723 95.3% 49,308 2.8022000 150,723 59,384 95.0% 56,387 2.6732005 149,789 60,937 95.0% 57,890 2.5872007 148,121 61,557 95.0% 58,479 2.5332010 146,920 62,352 95.0% 59,234 2.4802015 145,174 62,984 95.0% 59,835 2.4262020 145,844 63,259 95.0% 60,096 2.427
Sources: 1990 - 2000: US Bureau of the Census. 2005 - 2020: Applied Economics
13
Based on these demographic trends, and confirmed by the bottom-up model, the total elementary school-age population (persons aged 5 to 13) should decline by another 1,400 persons to a minimum of about 16,600 persons by about 2015/16 as shown in Table 6. Based on the current in-district enrollment to population ratio, or “capture rate” of 0.81, this implies an in-district loss in enrollment of nearly 1,400 more students from the Kyrene School District over the next 8 years. This would place the low-point at about 13,300 in-district students, representing a loss of about 30 percent from the peak of 19,055 students. It is interesting to note that peak enrollment in the District was significantly dampened by the introduction of charter schools between 1995 and 2000. If the capture rate had continued at about 95 percent, peak district enrollment would have been about 21,300 students, much closer to the projections prepared in the early 1990’s. This outstanding pool of about 3,400 school-aged persons not served by the Kyrene School District represents both an opportunity and a liability. Since any, or all, of these people could legitimately demand service from the District at any time, it implies the need to maintain extra capacity. Using students from outside the district to support this capacity is an excellent way to hedge risk and off-set declines.
TABLE 6 DISTRICT-LEVEL HOUSEHOLD AND ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
School-Age Population * In-district Enrollment Enrollment -Year Households Total Per Household Total Per Household Population Ratio Difference
1990/91 30,944 11,117 0.359 10,484 0.339 0.943 6331995/96 49,308 18,149 0.368 17,394 0.353 0.958 7552000/01 56,387 22,465 0.398 19,055 0.338 0.848 3,4102002/03 56,942 21,353 0.375 17,744 0.312 0.831 3,6092005/06 57,890 19,567 0.338 16,233 0.280 0.830 3,3342007/08 58,479 18,070 0.309 14,658 0.251 0.811 3,4122010/11 59,234 17,119 0.289 13,743 0.232 0.803 3,3762015/16 59,835 16,634 0.278 13,291 0.222 0.799 3,3432020/21 60,096 16,887 0.281 13,573 0.226 0.804 3,314
Source: Applied Economics, October 2007.* Population age 5 through 13, corresponds with Kindergartern through 8th grade. The annual projection of in-district enrollment is shown in Figure 6, with distribution by grade cohort shown in Figure 7. Total in-district enrollment is projected to continue its decline at a slowing rate through 2015/16 or so, when the enrollment should flatten or even re-bound slightly. The distribution by grade cohort shows the kindergarten to 2nd grade continuing to be the smallest group for the foreseeable future, but larger declines will be experienced in the 3rd to 5th grade and 6th to 8th grade groups since less of the impact has been realized at those levels to date. Annual projections of enrollment by grade through 2020/21 for the Kyrene School District are presented in Table 7. They show in-district enrollment declining by about 2.6 percent in 2008/09, with the rate of decline diminishing over the next five years. By 2015 to 2017 enrollment levels are expected to flatten, followed by a gradual increase through 2020/21.
14
FIGURE 6 PROJECTED IN-DISTRICT ENROLLMENT
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,00011,00012,00013,00014,00015,00016,00017,00018,00019,00020,000
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
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/00
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/01
2001
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2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2017
/18
2018
/19
2019
/20
2020
/21
ProjectedActual
Sources: Historic Data - Kyrene School District; Projections - Applied Economics, 2007.
FIGURE 7 PROJECTED IN-DISTRICT ENROLLMENT BY GRADE COHORT
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
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/07
2007
/08
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/10
2010
/11
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/12
2012
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2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2017
/18
2018
/19
2019
/20
2020
/21
K-2 3-5 6-8
Sources: Historic Data - Kyrene School District; Projections - Applied Economics, 2007.
15
TABLE 7
DISTRICT-LEVEL ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS BY GRADE Percent
Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Total Change
2000/01 1,920 1,890 1,958 2,181 2,237 2,305 2,164 2,267 2,133 19,0552001/02 1,688 1,843 1,928 1,969 2,108 2,184 2,297 2,149 2,235 18,401 -3.4%2002/03 1,453 1,826 1,863 1,895 1,976 2,090 2,167 2,330 2,144 17,744 -3.6%2003/04 1,448 1,649 1,836 1,910 1,927 1,999 2,145 2,179 2,294 17,387 -2.0%2004/05 1,451 1,647 1,655 1,886 1,926 1,899 2,035 2,152 2,218 16,869 -3.0%2005/06 1,383 1,616 1,620 1,708 1,832 1,906 1,943 2,029 2,196 16,233 -3.8%2006/07 1,272 1,478 1,603 1,610 1,703 1,809 1,933 1,900 1,991 15,299 -5.8%2007/08 1,334 1,347 1,478 1,576 1,611 1,673 1,824 1,912 1,903 14,658 -4.2%2008/09 1,300 1,457 1,362 1,509 1,576 1,607 1,703 1,841 1,927 14,282 -2.6%2009/10 1,280 1,434 1,488 1,405 1,523 1,587 1,652 1,736 1,874 13,979 -2.1%2010/11 1,263 1,416 1,469 1,539 1,422 1,538 1,636 1,688 1,772 13,743 -1.7%2011/12 1,243 1,394 1,446 1,515 1,554 1,432 1,581 1,668 1,718 13,551 -1.4%2012/13 1,225 1,373 1,425 1,493 1,531 1,567 1,474 1,613 1,700 13,401 -1.1%2013/14 1,210 1,356 1,407 1,475 1,512 1,547 1,616 1,507 1,647 13,277 -0.9%2014/15 1,198 1,343 1,393 1,459 1,498 1,532 1,599 1,656 1,543 13,221 -0.4%2015/16 1,189 1,333 1,383 1,449 1,485 1,521 1,588 1,643 1,700 13,291 0.5%2016/17 1,195 1,326 1,376 1,442 1,479 1,512 1,581 1,636 1,691 13,238 -0.4%2017/18 1,205 1,338 1,374 1,440 1,477 1,511 1,577 1,635 1,689 13,246 0.1%2018/19 1,220 1,353 1,391 1,442 1,480 1,514 1,581 1,636 1,694 13,311 0.5%2019/20 1,237 1,373 1,409 1,463 1,485 1,520 1,587 1,643 1,698 13,415 0.8%2020/21 1,258 1,395 1,434 1,486 1,510 1,529 1,597 1,654 1,710 13,573 1.2%
Sources: Kyrene School District; Applied Economics, 2007.
16
3.2 Section-level Enrollment Actual and projected student population by section for students living within District boundaries reflects where current and future students may reside in the future. As shown in Table 8 and Figure 8, most of the southern portion of the district (south of Warner Road), will likely experience declines in enrollment over the next 8 years, with several sections losing 50 to 100 students. By 2017/18, most of the sections in the district will be generating less than 70 percent of the number of students that they did soon after build out. As shown in Figure 9, the older areas of the District on the east side and in Ahwatukee will have bottomed out in terms of enrollment. The only significant additional loses occurring after that time will be west of 24th Street, as much of this area will likely fall into the 50 to 60 percent range by the time the median age of the housing stock reaches 25 years.
17
TABLE 8 ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENT BY SECTION
MedianMaximum Housing 2007/08 to
Section Enrollment Age 1995/96 2000/01 2005/06 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2015/16 2015/16207 593 23.3 541 356 292 270 263 259 257 288 18 208 300 13.5 262 256 276 220 240 234 229 218 -2 209 658 16.8 479 605 591 555 514 501 491 467 -88 210 269 28.0 269 152 143 137 129 127 126 141 4 211 742 25.2 671 520 355 341 319 315 312 350 9 212 340 15.0 277 311 228 203 198 193 189 180 -23 213 337 21.0 320 278 163 148 146 143 142 144 -4 214 418 21.9 407 379 279 248 249 245 243 246 -2 215 500 13.0 343 500 477 467 415 405 396 377 -90 216 3 NA 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 217 131 25.1 114 111 125 107 112 111 110 123 16 218 432 26.0 432 399 309 263 278 274 272 305 42 219 488 13.6 158 430 420 335 366 356 349 332 -3 220 425 15.2 425 302 264 278 230 224 219 208 -70 221 380 15.2 206 350 359 337 312 305 298 283 -54 222 703 18.0 703 571 469 442 419 412 408 414 -28 223 533 19.1 511 438 324 309 289 285 282 286 -23 224 741 15.7 729 695 517 499 450 439 429 408 -91 225 971 15.3 821 885 726 620 632 616 603 573 -47 226 962 12.5 745 907 735 641 640 624 610 580 -61 227 660 13.6 637 607 521 442 453 442 433 411 -31 228 431 14.9 330 425 384 333 334 326 319 303 -30 229 125 8.4 2 117 125 95 112 110 109 99 4 230 837 13.0 717 837 673 629 586 571 559 531 -98 231 668 17.0 530 600 660 605 574 560 548 521 -84 232 36 8.0 0 17 36 33 32 32 31 28 -5 233 22 41.0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 234 831 14.9 639 780 663 576 577 563 551 523 -53 235 578 18.8 573 470 367 323 328 323 319 324 1 236 462 21.0 462 292 239 223 214 210 208 211 -12 302 51 23.0 41 40 51 40 46 45 45 50 10 313 251 19.8 238 190 135 128 121 119 117 119 -9 323 4 23.0 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 324 587 18.6 564 520 407 357 364 358 354 359 2 325 537 13.5 466 497 388 357 338 329 322 306 -51 326 656 13.5 618 616 462 397 402 392 384 365 -32 327 629 12.0 575 629 526 450 470 463 457 415 -35 328 603 12.0 403 599 512 451 457 450 445 404 -47 329 232 12.0 42 174 224 218 200 197 195 177 -41 331 598 9.3 156 598 546 555 488 480 475 431 -124 332 330 9.3 154 311 328 300 293 288 285 259 -41 333 435 11.4 198 376 383 309 342 337 333 302 -7 334 349 12.7 236 349 316 314 275 268 262 249 -65 335 596 12.1 523 596 466 444 406 395 387 368 -76 336 958 13.8 837 944 751 655 654 637 624 593 -62 434 31 23.0 21 24 16 2 14 14 14 16 14
Total 17,394 19,055 16,233 14,658 14,282 13,979 13,743 13,291 -1,367
Sources: Kyrene School District; Applied Economics, 2007.
18
FIGURE 8 LOSS IN ENROLLMENT BY SECTION: 2007/08 THROUGH 2017/18
Altadena
Sierra
Monte Vista
Estrella Lagos
Milenio
Esperanza
Colina Manitas
Mirada
Paloma
Sureno
Aprende
CielloMariposa
Norte
Ninos
WaggonerLomas
207
230
220
335 231
217
323
331 234332 334333
326
219
208
336
328
218 214
209
215
223
227
210 212
226
313
236
229
233
225
324
211
325
232
216
235
222
228327329
221
213
224
19TH
AV
7TH
AV
7TH
ST
16TH
ST
24TH
ST
32ND
ST
40TH
ST
48TH
ST
PR
IEST
DR
KYR
ENE
RD
RU
RA
L R
D
MC
CLI
NTO
CK D
R
LOO
P 10
1
CHANDLER BLVD
RAY RD
WARNER RD
ELLIOT RD
GUADALUPE RDStudents
Over 10075 to 10050 to 7525 to 50Less than 25
FIGURE 9 2017/18 ENROLLMENT AS PERCENT OF MAXIMUM ENROLLMENT
Altadena
Sierra
Monte Vista
Estrella Lagos
Milenio
Esperanza
Colina Manitas
Mirada
Paloma
Sureno
Aprende
CielloMariposa
Norte
Ninos
WaggonerLomas
207
230
220
335 231
217
323
331 234332 334333
326
219
208
336
328
218 214
209
215
223
227
210 212
226
313
236
229
233
225
324
211
325
232
216
235
222
228327329
221
213
224
19TH
AV
7TH
AV
7TH
ST
16TH
ST
24TH
ST
32N
D S
T
40TH
ST
48TH
ST
PRIE
ST D
R
KYR
ENE
RD
RU
RA
L R
D
MCC
LIN
TOC
K D
R
LOO
P 10
1
CHANDLER BLVD
RAY RD
WARNER RD
ELLIOT RD
GUADALUPE RDShare
naUnder 50%50% to 60%60% to 70%Over 70%
19
3.3 Out-of-district Enrollment Enrollment of students from outside the district boundaries has become an ever more important part of student body, reaching about 18 percent of total enrollment in 2007/08 as shown in Figure 10. The sources of past growth from outside the district are well-documented, but anticipating the future population is much more difficult. This is due to the fact that these students have a less firm tie to the district, and factors that have led them to seek Kyrene School District as an alternative provider can change.
FIGURE 10 ENROLLMENT FROM OUTSIDE THE DISTRICT AND SHARE OF TOTAL ENROLLMENT
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
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2004
/05
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/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
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/10
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2011
/12
2012
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2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2017
/18
2018
/19
2019
/20
2020
/21
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Out of DistrictShare of District
The total number of students from outside the district is expected to increase by about 50 percent, from about 3,249 students currently to about 4,800 students by 2020/21. At that point, just over 26 percent of the Kyrene student body would come from areas outside the district, and would out-weigh by about 1,500 the number students being lost to other education providers. This rate is similar to that experienced by the Madison School District. Madison, which has the highest rate of out-of-district students we have encountered to date, and is very similar in some key ways to Kyrene. It also has an excellent reputation, is surrounded by districts with greater challenges, and it benefits from people commuting into the area for work. While it may be possible to import even more students, it will likely get harder and harder to achieve the growth levels experienced over the past few years.
20
3.4 Total Enrollment The projected level of out-of-district enrollment is added to the projected in-district enrollment, to arrive at the most-likely future enrollment scenario for the Kyrene School District. As shown in Figure 11 below, in-district enrollment is expected to continue declining, bottoming out in about 2014/15. Increases in out-of-district enrollment will only partially offset this decline. Total enrollment can be expected to decline to about 17,500 students by 2010/11 and remain near that level until enrollment start increasing again in about 2014/15. These changes in enrollment could easily be more or less depending on the success of, and ability to attract students from outside the district.
FIGURE 11 PROJECTED TOTAL DISTRICT ENROLLMENT
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,00011,00012,00013,00014,00015,00016,00017,00018,00019,00020,000
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2017
/18
2018
/19
2019
/20
2020
/21
ProjectedActual
Sources: Historic Data - Kyrene School District; Projections - Applied Economics, 2007.
Out of District
Enrollment from within the District may rebound after the next 10 years based on the affordability of the housing stock and shifting demographic trends, as happened in the Creighton Elementary School District. However, based on type of housing stock and the economic nature of the district it is very unlikely that the rebound would ever push in-district enrollment close to the peak experienced in 2000/01.
21
4.0 CONCLUSIONS The key findings of the study include the following:
• In-district enrollment has been declining since its peak of 19,055 students in 2000/01, never reaching its full potential due to the introduction of charter schools and changes in open enrollment policies.
• The cumulative decline in in-district enrollment since 2000/01 now totals nearly 4,400 students
(over 20 percent), leaving a population of about 14,600 students.
• While in-district enrollment has been declining, the District’s efforts to recruit student from outside the boundaries have been very successful, increasing out-of-district enrollment by about 2,800 students over the 2000/01 level of about 400 students.
• Case study data shows that most neighborhoods in the Kyrene School District are likely to
continue to experience declines in enrollment until the housing stock is about 25 years old, at which point enrollment is likely to be between 25 and 35 percent less than peak levels. It also showed that the more exclusive an area is the more pronounced this effect is likely to be.
• As the median age of the housing stock in the district is still only about 15 years, we expect
another 5-6 years of declining enrollment in most parts of the district.
• In-district enrollment is likely to decline another 10 percent below the current level over the next 7 years to about 13,200 students. This would represent a total decline of about 30 percent from the peak in 2000/01.
• The distribution of the loss in in-district enrollment will be fairly heavily concentrated in the
newer, southern part of the district, and be most pronounced in the Mountain Park Ranch and Foothills developments.
• Enrollment from outside the district can, and likely will increase. However, there may be limits to
this growth brought about by the overall size of the potential “market,” increased competition from home districts and transportation costs and constraints.
• According to the latest plans, the unincorporated area west of 19th Avenue will have only about
2,300 single family homes at build-out, considerably less than was initially planned in the late 1990’s. This means that there will likely be about 400 to 600 students generated from this area.
• District population and enrollment has been negatively impacted by elevated housing vacancy
rates due to the downturn in the local housing market. Improved market conditions should help stabilize and probably increase enrollment.
• Overall is seems unlikely that the increase in out-of-district enrollment will be sufficient to offset
the losses from within the district over the next 10 years. This may cause total enrollment (in-district plus out-of-district) to dip from about 17,900 students in 2007/08 to about 17,500 students (or less) by 2010/11. The ability to continue attracting more students from outside the district, and to re-capture some of the 3,400 non-Kyrene students living in the District will be a key issue to stabilizing enrollment levels.
22
APPENDIX A: CASE STUDY ANALYSIS In 1998, when the district first experienced declines in enrollment in kindergarten through 2nd grade cohort, it engaged Applied Economics to look at the potential long-term decline in enrollment. This was accomplished using a case-study approach, examining five similar but older neighborhoods in the east valley, seeking to examine the long-term enrollment trends. At the time, this involved examining Census Tract level information for each of the case study areas using data from the 1980, 1985, 1990 and 1995 Census. The results of that study showed a decline in the number of children living in an area until the housing stock reached about 20 years old. Since in 1998 the average age of housing in the District was only about 7 years, it was projected that enrollment would likely decline about 15 percent over the following 10 to 15 years. Based on that data, projections were developed that showed in-district enrollment declining to about 16,100 students by 2005/06, very close to the actual level or about 16,200 students. The longer-term projections showed Kyrene in-district enrollment continuing to decline to about 15,000 students by 2010/11. For this study we were able to add a data point to all of the case study areas from the 2000 Census, examine long-term section level enrollment data from the District, and recalculate what the demographic trends may imply for in-district enrollment in the Kyrene School District. The results of the revised analysis show enrollment declines continuing past the 20-year mark, to 25 years or more particularly in more affluent areas. Furthermore, it suggests that the long-term enrollment levels may only be 65 to 75 percent of maximum enrollment. Since different parts of the District reach maximum at different times, the peak enrollment at any one time will likely be even less until the area is much older. These findings are illustrated a series of three charts (Figures A1 through A3). The first portion of the case study analysis examines the relationship between the median age of the population and the median age of housing. As shown in Figure A1, the median age of the population increased significantly in all of the case study neighborhoods in the years immediately following construction, and in some cases continues to increase. The three neighborhoods most representative of the Kyrene School District (South Tempe, Dobson Ranch and The Lakes), all showed median ages of between 28 and 31 years about five years after construction, rising to between 36 and 38 years of age twenty of more years after construction. The data also shows how less-affluent, more transient areas like the North Tempe case study area have lower median age curves that flatten, and in some cases even reverse. A good example is the Creighton Elementary School District in downtown Phoenix. Housing in the Creighton District was largely constructed in the 1950’s, so by 1985 enrollment had fallen to less than 4,000 students. Then, increased ethnic diversity in the southern portion of the District, resulting in much larger families and multiple families per household, was combined with significant positive turn-over in moderate and better neighborhoods in the north to propel enrollment to 5,000 students in 1990, 8,000 in 2000, and some 8,500 students during the 2004/05 school year. The other observation provided in the data, which is likely even more relevant for the Kyrene School District, is that areas that begin or become “exclusive” have much higher median ages and much faster increases in the median age in the ensuing years. McCormick Ranch had a high median age early on that has gone up steadily, save a small dip between 1990 and 1995. This “blip” was mostly likely the result of moderating housing prices driven by very poor economic conditions in the early 1990’s. Conversely, it seems that fast escalating housing prices in the South Tempe case study area have caused median age to increase quickly.
23
FIGURE A1 MEDIAN AGE OF THE POPULATION VERSUS MEDIAN AGE OF HOME
20.022.024.026.028.030.032.034.036.038.040.042.044.046.048.050.052.0
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30Age of Housing (Years)
Med
ian
Age
Dobson RanchMcCormick RanchNorth TempeSouth TempeThe Lakes
The result of result of rising median age is highly correlated with smaller household sizes, as shown in Figure A2. Household sizes show a great deal of consistency in the amount of decay over time, falling about 0.60 persons per unit over about 20 years, regardless of the starting household size.
FIGURE A2 HOUSEHOLD SIZE VERSUS MEDIAN AGE OF HOME
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
2.40
2.60
2.80
3.00
3.20
3.40
3.60
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Age of Housing (Years)
Hou
seho
ld S
ize
Dobson RanchMcCormick RanchNorth TempeSouth TempeThe Lakes
24
The impact of rising median ages, and smaller household sizes translates directly in to fewer children, as shown in Figure A3. The three neighborhoods most representative of the Kyrene School District (South Tempe, Dobson Ranch and The Lakes), all showed children as about 36 percent of the population 5 years after construction, declining to between 24 and 28 percent twenty of more years after construction. This implies a decline in the potential student base of between 25 and 33 percent from peak levels for areas similar to the Kyrene School District. That said, many factors including home prices, demographic changes and economic cycles can shift, and a seen in the Creighton example, those shifts can be significant.
FIGURE A3 SHARE OF POPULATION UNDER 19 VERSUS MEDIAN AGE OF HOME
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
24.0%
26.0%
28.0%
30.0%
32.0%
34.0%
36.0%
38.0%
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Age of Housing (Years)
Chi
ldre
n's S
hare
of P
opul
atio
n
Dobson RanchMcCormick RanchNorth TempeSouth TempeThe Lakes