Enhancing Climate Resiliency into Manitoba Infrastructure

Current Issues & OpportunitiesPRAC WorkshopJanuary 28, 2015

Current State of Transportation Adaptation in Manitoba

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Outline• Resilience• MIT Adaptation ACTION• Manitoba's Context• Manitoba Transportation System• Transportation Emissions• Weather Events• Transport Infrastructure Design & Adaptation Frameworks• Climate Impacts on Systems• Disruptions & Adaptations• Gradual Implications• Extreme Event Implications• System Resilience Approaches & Planning• Discussion

Resilience• The adaptive capacity of a resource system or a

human society depends on the resilience of these systems.

• Resilience in the face of climate change, as with resilience to present-day hazards such as floods and droughts, therefore depends on the scale, intensity, and rate of change of the climate system, as well as the inherent ability of ecosystems or communities to adjust to new circumstances (Riebsame et al., 1995).

• Resilience is the ability of a system to return to a predisturbed state without incurring any lasting fundamental change

http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp=453

Daily Operations

http://jetphotos.net/viewphoto.php?id=31712&nseq=5

http://www.gov.mb.ca/health/ems/lifeflight.htmlhttp://www.gov.mb.ca/flooding/fighting/flood_protection.html

http://www.gov.mb.ca/mit/namo/ferry/history.html http://www.frontierpower.com/news.htmhttp://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-winter-storm-closes-trans-canada-highway-1.1339398

MIT Adaptation ACTION1. Winter Road System Manitoba [$250 K/yr]2. Spring Road Restrictions Program Policy Revisions Manitoba3. Winter Weight Premium Policy Manitoba4. Road Flood Proofing Manitoba [$215 M ]5. Materials Properties Manitoba6. Road Weather Information System (RWIS) Manitoba7. Water Control Structures Manitoba [$2 M/yr]8. Permafrost Degradation on Infrastructure Manitoba9. Hudson Bay Railway Rehabilitation Manitoba [$60 M ]10. Port of Churchill Capital Investment Manitoba [$8 M ]11. Transport Canada Network of Expertise on Transportation in

Arctic Waters (NEXTAW) Manitoba [$2.5 M ]

Winter Roads: Regression Analysis

Winter Road Alignment

MIT: Mid Canada Snow Conference & Trade Show 2010

http://www.climatechangeconnection.org/impacts/Winterroads.htm

SRR & WWP PolicySRR and WWP policies are to be

based primarily upon weather conditions allowing MIT to impose and remove restrictions based upon the actual weather conditions. This allows for flexibility to start restrictions and end restrictions, or increase/decrease allowable freight weight to carriers when the weather conditions warrant. This provides more timely protection for MIT roads and also assists industry by providing regulations based upon the weather which may result in improved economic benefits.

http://www.gov.mb.ca/mit/srr/zones.html

Example Flood Forecasting :PRI

Source : J Senyk MIT

Adaptation Enhances Economic Development

Options for Hwy 75 - Enhanced Flood Protection

Providing flood protection for PTH 75 greaterthan I-29 does not benefit cross-border traffic,because I-29 and the Port-of-Entry are closed.

Port of Churchill - Arctic Bridge - Sea Ice

http://www.arcticbridge.com/

http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/sea_ice.html

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2014/04/arctic-sea-ice-at-fifth-lowest-annual-maximum/

Port of Churchill : Extended Season

Dr Blair & Ryan Smith: http://climate.uwinnipeg.ca/index_files/Page3469.htm

http://www.peterblahut.ca/archive.asp?aMonth=11&aYear=2009

Manitoba’s Economy

• Manitoba’s economy depends on the personal and freight mobility provided by the provincial transportation system.

• Essential products and services like energy, food, manufacturing, and trade all depend in interrelated ways on the reliable functioning of these transportation components.

• Disruptions to transportation systems, therefore, can cause large economic and personal losses.

See: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/transportation

Manitoba’s Transportation System“... Manitoba’s transportation system is the backbone of an economically diverse and

trade-dependent jurisdiction. Multi-modal in scope, and provided through a mix of public and private infrastructure, operations and services, the Manitoba transportation system supports the economic, social and general mobility needs of more than 1.2 million Manitobans, and facilitates interprovincial and international trade in goods and services valued at over $60 billion...”

Four Main Components that are increasingly vulnerable to climate change impacts: • FIXED NODE INFRASTRUCTURE, such as ports, airports, and rail terminals; • FIXED ROUTE INFRASTRUCTURE, such as roads, bridges, pedestrian/bicycle trails

and lanes, locks, freight and commuter railways, and pipelines, with mixed public and private ownership and management;

• VEHICLES, such as cars, transit buses, and trucks; transit and railcars and locomotives; ships and barges; and aircraft – many privately owned; and

• PEOPLE, INSTITUTIONS, LAWS, POLICIES, AND INFORMATION SYSTEMS that convert infrastructure and vehicles into working transportation networks.

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/transportation

GHG Emissions

http://climatechangeconnection.org/emissions/ & http://climatechangeconnection.org/emissions/manitoba-ghg-emissions/manitoba-transportation-ghgs/

Transportation

Weather Events

• Transportation systems are already experiencing costly climate change related impacts.

• Manitoba experiences severe precipitation events, hail, warmer winters, melting permafrost and flooding, damaging roads, bridges, and rail systems, and vehicles.

• Over the coming decades, all regions and modes of transportation will be affected by increasing temperatures, more extreme weather events, and changes in precipitation.

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/transportation

Transport Infrastructure Design• Transport infrastructure is expensive and designed for long life

(typically 50 to 100 years). • MB’S TOTAL INFRASTRUCTURE ASSET REPLACEMENT VALUE

estimate ranges somewhere between $50 - $100 BILLON.• As climatic conditions shift, portions of this infrastructure will

increasingly be subject to climatic stresses that will reduce the reliability and capacity of transportation systems.

• Transportation systems are also vulnerable to interruptions in fuel and electricity supply, as well as communications disruptions – which are also subject to climatic stresses

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/transportation

Transport Adaptation Framework

International Practices on Climate Adaptation in Transportationhttp://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/climate_change/adaptation/publications_and_tools/international_practices/page02.cfm#Toc405798016

Climate Impacts on Systems• Climate change will affect TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS directly,

through infrastructure damage, and indirectly, through changes in trade flows, agriculture, energy use, and settlement patterns.

• For example recent floods have impacted provincial highway and bridge infrastructure. Re-routing freight transportation during flood events involves longer distances and higher costs impacting economic competitiveness.

• If policy measures and technological changes reduce greenhouse gas emissions by affecting fuel types, there will likely be significant impacts on the transportation of energy supplies (such as pipelines and oil/coal trains) and on the cost of transportation to freight and passenger users.

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/transportation

Disruptions & Adaptation Transportation Systems as networks may use alternative routes

around damaged elements or shift traffic to undamaged modes. Other adaptation actions include:• new infrastructure designs for future climate conditions, • asset management programs, • at-risk asset protection, • operational changes, • and abandoning/relocating infrastructure assets that would be too

expensive to protect.As new and rehabilitated transportation systems are developed,

climate change impacts should be routinely incorporated into the planning for these systems.

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/transportation

Gradual Implications• A gradually warming climate will accelerate asphalt

deterioration and cause buckling of pavements and rail lines.

• Streamflows based on increasingly more frequent and intense rainfall instead of slower snowmelt could increase the likelihood of bridge damage from faster-flowing streams.

• Less snow in some areas will reduce snow removal costs and extend construction seasons.

• Shifts in agricultural production patterns will necessitate changes in transportation routes and modes.

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/transportation

Extreme Event Implications

• Extreme weather events stress transportation at precisely the time when smooth operation is critical.

• Management plans, emergency measures and communication tools can be designed and deployed to protect the safety of transportation system service providers and users.

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/transportation

System Resilience Approaches

Land Use

Vulnerability & Risk

NewInfrastructureDesign

Asset Management

EmergencyResponse

Regional and Local Climate Predictions• Warming?• Extreme Cold?• Snow and Rain?• Wind?• Where?• When?• How Much?• Confidence?

Planning for Enhancing Climate Resiliency

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2015/20150116_Temperature2014.pdf

RESILIENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM •Fixed Node Infrastructure •Fixed Route Infrastructure•Vehicles •People, Institutions, Laws, Policies, & Information Systems

Terry.Zdan@gov.mb.caMIT

2042273724

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